vulnerable
vulnerable
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January 15th, 2023 at 8:00:49 AM permalink
Got a rolling chip program in a Macau casino. Buy $100000 and get $800 bonus, thus 0.8%.
Rules are as follows:
- 8 decks
- S17
- DOA
- DAS
- RS4
- no RSAce
- early surrender against 10
- BJ pay 3:2
I got referred to a paper "Beyond Coupons" (PDF) by James Grosjean" on wizard site and found that similar rules (except 6 decks and late surrender) has expected return of $99.32 out of $100 wagered.
So how to derive the exact expected return using the above rules?
Is this a profitable game?
gordonm888
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January 15th, 2023 at 9:58:58 AM permalink
Quote: vulnerable

Got a rolling chip program in a Macau casino. Buy $100000 and get $800 bonus, thus 0.8%.
Rules are as follows:
- 8 decks
- S17
- DOA
- DAS
- RS4
- no RSAce
- early surrender against 10
- BJ pay 3:2
I got referred to a paper "Beyond Coupons" (PDF) by James Grosjean" on wizard site and found that similar rules (except 6 decks and late surrender) has expected return of $99.32 out of $100 wagered.
So how to derive the exact expected return using the above rules?
Is this a profitable game?
link to original post



The expected return of this 8 deck, S17, ESvsTen game is 0.998113, the EV is -0.1887%. Given the 0.8% bonus on buy-in, you can draw your own conclusions.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
teliot
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January 15th, 2023 at 10:44:54 AM permalink
The person is not getting a 0.8% bonus on their buy-in. They are getting rolling chips. These chips must be played until they are lost. I encourage you to look up "rolling chips" if you don't understand them.

So the person who buys in for $100,000 gets 100,800 in rolling chips. Winnings are paid in ordinary chips. So, you must *lose* all your rolling chips before you cash out. Since the probability of a loss in blackjack is about 0.48% and the average loss is 1.1 chips, that means each rolling chip is played on average 1.89 times. So the 100,800 generates about 191,000 in total initial wagers to lose the chips. At an EV of -0.189%, the player is losing about $360 in EV. That means the player should end up with an overall positive expected win of $800-$360 = $440. Based on the $191,000 in wagers, this amounts to a player edge of 0.23%.

Here is some of the data I used:



I've been suggesting rolling chips for blackjack for years here in the US. This is the first I heard of them in Macau. But yes, the player has an edge, but it's painfully small..
Last edited by: teliot on Jan 15, 2023
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vulnerable
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January 16th, 2023 at 4:49:01 AM permalink
Yes I understand how rolling chips work.
I know all your figures but the average loss being 1.1 chips. How do you get this figure?
Also, there is a trick. During surrender, you are forced to surrender ordinary chips and take back the original rolling chip bet.
For example, if you bet 100 rolling chip and surrender, you gave in 50 ordinary chip and take back 100 rolling chip.
How does this affect the edge?
teliot
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January 16th, 2023 at 11:16:05 AM permalink
As for how I got to an average loss of 1.1 chips, you'll find that in this article of mine:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/blackjack-tips/blackjack-combinatorial-analysis-by-simulation

As for your game in particular, including the surrender rule and other oddities, I would have to simulate that to get the edge. I don't know. But the answer is certainly not much different than my calculation above. In any real sense, your edge here is very small, even with minor rule changes. That said, if you have a game where you can back-bet and use a split-for-less strategy (like many Asian casinos offer), then that taken together with your rolling chips is certainly good enough.
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aceside
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January 16th, 2023 at 11:44:30 AM permalink
Quote: vulnerable


Also, there is a trick. During surrender, you are forced to surrender ordinary chips and take back the original rolling chip bet.
For example, if you bet 100 rolling chip and surrender, you gave in 50 ordinary chip and take back 100 rolling chip.
How does this affect the edge?
link to original post


This is a huge advantage to you the player.
vulnerable
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January 16th, 2023 at 6:27:23 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

As for how I got to an average loss of 1.1 chips, you'll find that in this article of mine:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/blackjack-tips/blackjack-combinatorial-analysis-by-simulation

As for your game in particular, including the surrender rule and other oddities, I would have to simulate that to get the edge. I don't know. But the answer is certainly not much different than my calculation above. In any real sense, your edge here is very small, even with minor rule changes. That said, if you have a game where you can back-bet and use a split-for-less strategy (like many Asian casinos offer), then that taken together with your rolling chips is certainly good enough.
link to original post


In this particular casino only 1 bet is allowed in a box. So no rider strategy can be used.
Anyway thanks a lot for your reply.
ssho88
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January 16th, 2023 at 6:56:49 PM permalink
Asumming house edge = -0.19%, %loss = 48, in order to convert your $100800 rolling chip to cash chip, you total bet = 100800/0.48 = $210000, so your expected loss = $210000 * 0.19/100 = 399, meaning your remainning cash chip is $100401 at end of the session. Just an estimate.

Your ev = 401/210000 *100 = +0.191%
SOOPOO
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January 16th, 2023 at 7:21:50 PM permalink
From previous posts looks like your edge is .2%. That’s small, but it is an edge! Do you also get any comps for the $200k or so you will be betting? Or do they not ‘rate’ your play when using rolling chips?
aceside
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January 16th, 2023 at 8:30:25 PM permalink
Quote: vulnerable

Yes I understand how rolling chips work.
I know all your figures but the average loss being 1.1 chips. How do you get this figure?
Also, there is a trick. During surrender, you are forced to surrender ordinary chips and take back the original rolling chip bet.
For example, if you bet 100 rolling chip and surrender, you gave in 50 ordinary chip and take back 100 rolling chip.
How does this affect the edge?
link to original post


I guess I am not understanding the mechanism here. When you bet $100 rolling chips and surrender that hand, are you required to bet $100 companying ordinary chips at the beginning of the hand? If yes, you have a good advantage here; if no, you have a bad disadvantage here.
ssho88
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January 16th, 2023 at 8:57:09 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

Quote: vulnerable

Yes I understand how rolling chips work.
I know all your figures but the average loss being 1.1 chips. How do you get this figure?
Also, there is a trick. During surrender, you are forced to surrender ordinary chips and take back the original rolling chip bet.
For example, if you bet 100 rolling chip and surrender, you gave in 50 ordinary chip and take back 100 rolling chip.
How does this affect the edge?
link to original post


I guess I am not understanding the mechanism here. When you bet $100 rolling chips and surrender that hand, are you required to bet $100 companying ordinary chips at the beginning of the hand? If yes, you have a good advantage here; if no, you have a bad disadvantage here.
link to original post



The dealer will take your one piece $100 rolling chip and return $50 rolling chip(from the chip tray).
aceside
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January 16th, 2023 at 8:59:48 PM permalink
But this is not what OP stated. He mentioned $50 real money chips was confiscated by dealer when surrendering.
vulnerable
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January 16th, 2023 at 9:15:57 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: aceside

Quote: vulnerable

Yes I understand how rolling chips work.
I know all your figures but the average loss being 1.1 chips. How do you get this figure?
Also, there is a trick. During surrender, you are forced to surrender ordinary chips and take back the original rolling chip bet.
For example, if you bet 100 rolling chip and surrender, you gave in 50 ordinary chip and take back 100 rolling chip.
How does this affect the edge?
link to original post


I guess I am not understanding the mechanism here. When you bet $100 rolling chips and surrender that hand, are you required to bet $100 companying ordinary chips at the beginning of the hand? If yes, you have a good advantage here; if no, you have a bad disadvantage here.
link to original post



The dealer will take your one piece $100 rolling chip and return $50 rolling chip(from the chip tray).
link to original post


No. You give $50 ordinary chip to the dealer and get back the original $100 rolling chip bet.
aceside
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January 16th, 2023 at 9:18:19 PM permalink
I guess this tiny catch may wipe out all your bonus edge.
vulnerable
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January 16th, 2023 at 9:23:20 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

I guess this tiny catch may wipe out all your bonus edge.
link to original post


I have the same feeling, but not able to prove it.
aceside
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January 16th, 2023 at 9:27:08 PM permalink
Let me estimate the disadvantage from this bad surrender rule. If you do not surrender (mostly ES10) at all, you lose about 0.24% edge to the dealer. Based on this, you may lose up to 0.24% on your beginning edge of 0.2% using ES10; therefore, your final edge playing this game is about -0.04%. This probably is a negative game.
Last edited by: aceside on Jan 16, 2023
vulnerable
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January 17th, 2023 at 1:22:16 AM permalink
We should keep surrendering. The strategy is not affected. Only that this causes the time to losing all rolling chips longer, thus affect the edge in favour of the casino.
ssho88
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January 18th, 2023 at 4:38:29 AM permalink
Quote: vulnerable

We should keep surrendering. The strategy is not affected. Only that this causes the time to losing all rolling chips longer, thus affect the edge in favour of the casino.
link to original post



With ES10 rules, you will surrender about 6%(may not accurate) of your hand, so you have to bet 3%(6%/2) more, if your buy in is 100,000 + 800 = 100800 roling chips, you have to bet 100800/0.48 + 100800/0.48 *0.03/0.48 + + (100800/0.48 *0.03/0.48)*0.03/0.48 +..... = 210000 + 13125 + 820.3 +... = 224000, your expected loss = 224000 * 0.19 = 425.6, so your net win = 800 - 425.6 = 374.4.

Your ev = 374.4/224000 = +0.167%. I heard Macau have such similar promo ?
Last edited by: ssho88 on Jan 18, 2023
aceside
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January 18th, 2023 at 7:27:10 AM permalink
I’m learning about this ES10 rule. Does this game have a dealer hole card? When the dealer shows an ace upcard, are the players allowed to early/late surrender?

Also, to calculate the disadvantage from this bad surrender rule, we can also treat each surrender as a buy-in of additional 1.5-time rolling chips. If we know more details about the rules, we should be able to find this out.
aceside
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January 18th, 2023 at 8:05:25 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: vulnerable

We should keep surrendering. The strategy is not affected. Only that this causes the time to losing all rolling chips longer, thus affect the edge in favour of the casino.
link to original post



With ES10 rules, you will surrender about 6%(may not accurate) of your hand, so you have to bet 3%(6%/2) more,
link to original post


With the surrender rule as OP specified, I actually think the player should bet 9% more, which is 6%x1.5=9%.
vulnerable
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January 18th, 2023 at 4:14:13 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

I’m learning about this ES10 rule. Does this game have a dealer hole card? When the dealer shows an ace upcard, are the players allowed to early/late surrender?

Also, to calculate the disadvantage from this bad surrender rule, we can also treat each surrender as a buy-in of additional 1.5-time rolling chips. If we know more details about the rules, we should be able to find this out.
link to original post


No hole card and no surrender against dealer ace. And I forgot to mention that all BJ games in Macau use CSM.
aceside
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January 19th, 2023 at 9:06:20 AM permalink
I thought about this again. If this game is ENHC, the house edge is about -0.29%. The rolling chip bonus only makes this game even. The bad surrender can be treated as occasionally buying-in of 0.5-time rolling chips on each surrender and this makes the whole game negative.
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