FBI agent convicted of gambling with govt. money
August 19th, 2022 at 9:43:50 PM
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The article says he lost $13,000 in 2-3 hours with an average bet size of $721.
https://news.yahoo.com/former-fbi-agent-sentenced-gambling-025840260.html
$721 x 100 rounds/hr. x 0.5% house edge x 3 hours = $1081.50 in expected loss, quite far from $13,000.
So at least one of these must be true:
(1) He's bad at blackjack.
(2) He's a generous tipper.
(3) He was super unlucky.*
(4) The numbers in the article were wrong.
*EDIT: As per the discussion below, just unlucky, not "super" unlucky.
https://news.yahoo.com/former-fbi-agent-sentenced-gambling-025840260.html
$721 x 100 rounds/hr. x 0.5% house edge x 3 hours = $1081.50 in expected loss, quite far from $13,000.
So at least one of these must be true:
(1) He's bad at blackjack.
(2) He's a generous tipper.
(3) He was super unlucky.*
(4) The numbers in the article were wrong.
*EDIT: As per the discussion below, just unlucky, not "super" unlucky.
Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Aug 20, 2022
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August 19th, 2022 at 9:58:33 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejay
So at least one of these must be true:
(1) He's bad at blackjack.
(2) He's a generous tipper.
(3) He was super unlucky.
(4) The numbers in the article were wrong.
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(5) Theoretical results can be way different than actual results.
August 19th, 2022 at 10:14:09 PM
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That's a re-stating of #3.Quote: AlanMendelson(5) Theoretical results can be way different than actual results.
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August 19th, 2022 at 10:58:09 PM
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To get an average bet of $721, they must have rerolled that beautiful bean footage and counted each hand and each bet.
August 19th, 2022 at 11:21:46 PM
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Ever hear of variance?
If he made 200 bets then his expectation, assuming 0.5% edge, was -1 +/- 16. Applying $721 gives $-721 +/- $11,536 so losing $13,000 would be easy
I’d guess his edge was more like 2%, making a $13k loss within one standard deviation of $2884 expected loss
If he made 200 bets then his expectation, assuming 0.5% edge, was -1 +/- 16. Applying $721 gives $-721 +/- $11,536 so losing $13,000 would be easy
I’d guess his edge was more like 2%, making a $13k loss within one standard deviation of $2884 expected loss
It’s all about making that GTA
August 19th, 2022 at 11:31:41 PM
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Yes, that would be #1 and #3.Quote: Ace2Ever hear of variance?...I’d guess his edge was more like 2%, making a $13k loss within one standard deviation of $2884 expected loss
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August 19th, 2022 at 11:40:45 PM
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$13k is normal variance regardless of his skills. Losing/winning that amount wouldn’t be super unlucky/luckyQuote: MichaelBluejayYes, that would be #1 and #3.Quote: Ace2Ever hear of variance?...I’d guess his edge was more like 2%, making a $13k loss within one standard deviation of $2884 expected loss
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It’s all about making that GTA
August 20th, 2022 at 12:20:53 AM
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It seems like you said that your 1SD calc was based on a 2% edge, which would suggest poor skill.
I do realize that I erred by considering only flat betting. Certainly if he often bet a lot more than average, then variance would be a lot higher.
I'm also remembering from my counting days that spreading $25-$150 resulted in about ±$1000/hr, and $100-600 was about ±$4000/hr. So yeah, if $100-600 could yield -$12,000, then $721 certainly could certainly yield about that result. (Not an exact comparison, b/c -$4000/hr. for one hour is a lot less likely than -$12,000 for three hours, because we'd have to be in the bad range for a one-hour return three times in a row, much less likely than doing so just once.)
I do realize that I erred by considering only flat betting. Certainly if he often bet a lot more than average, then variance would be a lot higher.
I'm also remembering from my counting days that spreading $25-$150 resulted in about ±$1000/hr, and $100-600 was about ±$4000/hr. So yeah, if $100-600 could yield -$12,000, then $721 certainly could certainly yield about that result. (Not an exact comparison, b/c -$4000/hr. for one hour is a lot less likely than -$12,000 for three hours, because we'd have to be in the bad range for a one-hour return three times in a row, much less likely than doing so just once.)
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August 20th, 2022 at 2:36:40 AM
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Quote: MichaelBluejay
$721 x 100 rounds/hr.
100 rounds an hour? That seems awfully slow for blackjack, unless he was on a full table. I've never played blackjack in a high limit room. Is it really that much slower?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland.
And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with.
- AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
August 20th, 2022 at 2:42:13 AM
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I’ve counted (either very overweight, very old or Bellagio, ok I didn’t have to add Bellagio if already mentioning old) dealers dealing blackjack as slow as 30 hands an hour and I think 60 is more of a common average nowadays than 100 on a fullish main floor table with all the sidebet nonsense.
Depends on who’s at your table in high limit but imo those games actually move faster due mainly to lack of side bets and less full tables, fewer inexperienced/indecisive players.
Depends on who’s at your table in high limit but imo those games actually move faster due mainly to lack of side bets and less full tables, fewer inexperienced/indecisive players.
August 20th, 2022 at 2:58:26 AM
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[edit ... made comments before reading article]
I'll go with number 4.
I'll go with number 4.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 20th, 2022 at 4:40:56 AM
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FBI agents are ploppies. 100% of them.
Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge among the law enforcement community.
Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge among the law enforcement community.
August 20th, 2022 at 6:47:21 AM
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Definitely not true. A few years back it came out that an FBI agent Dale Cooper (working under the alias D. Jones) used his AP skills as a slot player to clean out a Las Vegas casino of $425,000. He was working on a related operation and the winnings nearly blew his cover.Quote: GundyFBI agents are ploppies. 100% of them.
Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge among the law enforcement community.
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August 20th, 2022 at 8:13:39 AM
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That's an average 18 unit loss in 2-3 hours, and that was his entire bankroll. He's just guilty of poor money management. And stealing, obviously.
August 20th, 2022 at 12:19:14 PM
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Yeah he lost... but look at the free play offers he'll be getting....
August 20th, 2022 at 1:01:40 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonYeah he lost... but look at the free play offers he'll be getting....
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There seems to be many of these special agents around gambling cities. Blending in losing government money. It’s the only logical conclusion after watching guys lose tens of thousands a week for months on end. They also seem to ask to many questions about Ap, pretend to be APs,, but never win. I wonder …
