mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
• Posts: 745
January 7th, 2022 at 11:14:04 AM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Quote: mwalz9

I'll bet you, you can give me 100 hands in an 8 deck game, hitting soft 17, double after split allowed and I make 0 mistakes.

It's really not that hard to learn.

Ehhh, how about 1000 or more hands? Like it's definitely a learn able skill but not everyone picks it up quickly.

You can deal me as many hands as you wish. Playing those rules mentioned above, I WILL NOT MAKE A MISTAKE!

I could write the basic strategy chart on a blank piece of paper if you'd wish.

Most of it is common sense, so basically I had to learn less than 20 scenarios.
7Ate9
Joined: Feb 12, 2022
• Posts: 10
February 12th, 2022 at 11:55:30 AM permalink
Quote: Jack2022

HI. I'm new to Blackjack but I've now played over 1000 hands, with tiny stakes as an experiment, using perfect basic strategy expecting a return of around 99.5% but in reality achieving only 85%. I realize this is a small sample size but I'm wondering if there's something about the game I don't understand?
I've only played live online, RNG online, on a couple of apps and on the Wizard's trainer. All have seen disappointing results and a similar pattern where I fall behind, occasionally swing back towards break even, but generally hover around a 10%+ loss.
What are other people's experiences playing basic strategy? Have you achieved the expected return and over what sample size? Thanks.

Have the rules been the same on each site you've used--and if not--did you calculate -.05% to be your average EV? Since your expected results can vary wildly depending on the rules, this is something important to consider.

You can run simulations using Excel (or use software like Qfit's CVData), to calculate your expected EV over time. Since statistics don't lie (unless you're Samuel Clemens), if your columns aren't matching it either means you haven't accounted for variance or there is user error.

Of course if you're playing with real money at an offshore casino, then another possibility is you're being cheated. They might have tweaked the game in such a way to give the house an even bigger advantage the players aren't aware of (I personally don't trust online casinos because it would be difficult to police this sort of thing).
7Ate9
Joined: Feb 12, 2022
• Posts: 10
February 12th, 2022 at 12:04:49 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Quote: mwalz9

I'll bet you, you can give me 100 hands in an 8 deck game, hitting soft 17, double after split allowed and I make 0 mistakes.

It's really not that hard to learn.

Ehhh, how about 1000 or more hands? Like it's definitely a learn able skill but not everyone picks it up quickly.

You can deal me as many hands as you wish. Playing those rules mentioned above, I WILL NOT MAKE A MISTAKE!

I could write the basic strategy chart on a blank piece of paper if you'd wish.

Most of it is common sense, so basically I had to learn less than 20 scenarios.

I'm afraid not all of us can be Rainman--and not all of the Basic Strategy plays are intuitive (like when to split 4's or when to double with an A2 etc.) Took me the longest time to remember a few of those.
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 13303
February 12th, 2022 at 12:26:24 PM permalink
If you are not 100% sure of basic strategy, you are allowed to bring a strategy card to the table with you. Just be sure it is a good card. I've seen plenty of cheap plastic cards for sale with bad information on them.
I was looking at some casino reports from Atlantic City and the average hold on table games is about 15% so your result is fairly typical.
Don't worry about everyone claiming learning BS is so simple. Twenty-plus years of playing has shown me very few people play BS 100% of the time.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
7Ate9
Joined: Feb 12, 2022
• Posts: 10
February 14th, 2022 at 11:48:44 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are not 100% sure of basic strategy, you are allowed to bring a strategy card to the table with you. Just be sure it is a good card. I've seen plenty of cheap plastic cards for sale with bad information on them.
I was looking at some casino reports from Atlantic City and the average hold on table games is about 15% so your result is fairly typical.
Don't worry about everyone claiming learning BS is so simple. Twenty-plus years of playing has shown me very few people play BS 100% of the time.

My dad is a gambler (he actually taught me how to play blackjack in the 1980s). He knows basic strategy backwards and forwards and with his eyes closed and after 5 whiskey's--and yet he'll deviate from BS not because he counts cards (he doesn't), but because he gets "hunches". He has "lucky" rings he wears, lucky shirts, and all kinds of other hocus pocus he uses to "help" him at the tables. He has lost hundreds of thousands of dollars over his "career" and by any definition of the term he has a gambling problem.

This is the difference between a gambler and an advantage player. Gamblers won't follow basic strategy if their lucky rabbit's foot tells them to stay instead of hitting. They are a superstitious lot, and casinos love them because they'll lose their life savings, the kid's college tuition--and they'll take out a second mortgage on the house if they're on a "hot streak". The Advantage Player, on the other hand, is dispassionate. Their religion is Math and they always follow what the numbers suggest will give them the biggest edge in any particular situation (and if they don't, it's because they have some other angle they are working and have done a risk/reward assessment). Gamblers usually lose more money than AP's--and good AP's generate positive EV (and sometimes a lot of it). Of course the trade off is gamblers usually have more fun in the casino, whereas the AP looks at it as a job.
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 1251
February 14th, 2022 at 11:56:41 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

(snip)
I was looking at some casino reports from Atlantic City and the average hold on table games is about 15% so your result is fairly typical.
(snip)

That may be correct, but I thought hold was related to buy in (see scenarios below).

Scenario 1: