billryan
billryan
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November 18th, 2021 at 10:46:03 AM permalink
It also assumes the dealer has a pat hand and won't take a card. Unless the count is insanely high, the chances of the dealer having a ten as the down card don't approach 50%. It sounds good on paper but has little practical use.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
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November 18th, 2021 at 12:56:07 PM permalink
Quote: moses

For instance, suppose I have 16vs10 and the deck composition is 50% 10's/A's remainng and 50% other cards. Chances are I will bust or end up with 17. Neither would be enough to beat the nearly 50% chance of the dealer having a 10 in the hole.

So, by not hitting, there is a 50% chance the first card of my next hand will be an Ace or a 10.

Don S has written some interesting posts on the value of starting one's hand with a 10 or Ace.
link to original post



I recall that if the count is high enough, not to split 8ís against a 10. And stand or surender on 8ís. 10 and 6 should also stand with a positive count. If the dealer has a small card face down, dealer may bust hitting a high card.

Playing with a full table will find yourself more often at the beginning of a shoe hovering around zero count at the house edge.

I have not played for a year til last nite. 6:5 bj table 6 deck, big house edge. Lost $300. I gambled.
Last edited by: jjjoooggg on Nov 18, 2021
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
aceside
aceside
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November 18th, 2021 at 1:00:29 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: moses

For instance, suppose I have 16vs10 and the deck composition is 50% 10's/A's remainng and 50% other cards. Chances are I will bust or end up with 17. Neither would be enough to beat the nearly 50% chance of the dealer having a 10 in the hole.

So, by not hitting, there is a 50% chance the first card of my next hand will be an Ace or a 10.

Don S has written some interesting posts on the value of starting one's hand with a 10 or Ace.
link to original post



I think its true that for a shoe with a high positive count, you would prefer to not consume cards without a good reason. So, for a hit?stand decision that is an incredibly close call, you might prefer to stand even if it has a slightly lower EV. But in practice, its hard to know when to make that play unless you are tracking the cards with a computer.
link to original post


I know you are an expert, so let me direct my question to you. When I play a 6-deck blackjack shoe flat betting all the way and all hands, I believe playing solo (myself) has a smaller variance per hand, as compared to playing with another player. Is this thinking mathematically correct?
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
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November 18th, 2021 at 1:38:27 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: moses

For instance, suppose I have 16vs10 and the deck composition is 50% 10's/A's remainng and 50% other cards. Chances are I will bust or end up with 17. Neither would be enough to beat the nearly 50% chance of the dealer having a 10 in the hole.

So, by not hitting, there is a 50% chance the first card of my next hand will be an Ace or a 10.

Don S has written some interesting posts on the value of starting one's hand with a 10 or Ace.
link to original post



I think its true that for a shoe with a high positive count, you would prefer to not consume cards without a good reason. So, for a hit?stand decision that is an incredibly close call, you might prefer to stand even if it has a slightly lower EV. But in practice, its hard to know when to make that play unless you are tracking the cards with a computer.
link to original post


I know you are an expert, so let me direct my question to you. When I play a 6-deck blackjack shoe flat betting all the way and all hands, I believe playing solo (myself) has a smaller variance per hand, as compared to playing with another player. Is this thinking mathematically correct?
link to original post



If the other players are less skilled, I think the variance will be more. How much more? Idk. There is already a-lot of variance playing solo.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
moses
moses
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November 18th, 2021 at 2:14:23 PM permalink
Shoes are most likely a different story.

In a single deck. Let's say your 1st hand is 9,7vs10. 16 cards (2-5) will improve the hand to 18 to 21. 29 cards will break it. 4 will get you to 17. Those same 4 Aces would also start your next hand with an Ace while 15 tens still remain in the deck.

25 cards make the dealer stop. At 17 thru 20.
20 cards make the dealer hit. At 12 thru 16.
If 1 of 4 Aces are in the hole, conversation over.

IF 13 more cards 7-10 were to come out? And not one 2-5? Your chances of getting to 18 to 21 are still only 50%.
billryan
billryan
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November 18th, 2021 at 2:52:42 PM permalink
Quote: moses

Shoes are most likely a different story.

In a single deck. Let's say your 1st hand is 9,7vs10. 16 cards (2-5) will improve the hand to 18 to 21. 29 cards will break it. 4 will get you to 17. Those same 4 Aces would also start your next hand with an Ace while 15 tens still remain in the deck.

25 cards make the dealer stop. At 17 thru 20.
20 cards make the dealer hit. At 12 thru 16.
If 1 of 4 Aces are in the hole, conversation over.

IF 13 more cards 7-10 were to come out? And not one 2-5? Your chances of getting to 18 to 21 are still only 50%.
link to original post




Single deck BJ that pays 3-2 and doesn't have a crazy minimum is not a game available to most. I recently attended a charity night that advertised single deck,3-2. After driving almost three hours to the middle of nowhere, I found out the game was indeed single deck, but they shuffle after every round.
They had a side bet I've never seen. If you and the dealer both get a BJ, it pays $200. If the dealer BJ is in Spades, it pays double. I didn't stick around long, but it seemed like everyone was playing the sidebet.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
moses
moses
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November 18th, 2021 at 3:00:57 PM permalink
Deck composition starts with a single deck of cards. Sort like the free throw line.. it's the best place to line up your shot.. For each deck added, the computing skews and difficulty increases. Thus estimates are necessary. But in single and double deck, knowing what is played and still remains is doable.

So heck yes, I want the straight up game with decent pen in 1 or 2 decks. More than two? I'd turn blue.

Give me 7 or more rounds in single deck? I'd go Thorpe on you. 🤣

Going to 3 hands? And you're soon watching from the stands.😉
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
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November 18th, 2021 at 3:06:02 PM permalink
Quote: moses

It all starts with a single deck of cards. Sort like the free throw line.. it's the best place to line up your shot.. For each deck added, the computing skews and difficulty increases. Thus estimates are necessary. But in single and double deck, knowing what is played and still remains is doable.

So heck yes, I want the straight up game with decent pen in 1 or 2 decks. More than two? I'd turn blue.

Give me 7 or more rounds in single deck? I'd go Thorpe on you. 🤣

Going to 3 hands? And you're soon watching from the stands.😉
link to original post



If itís a full table Id rather play 6 deck, I donít like waiting during shuffling.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
moses
moses
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November 18th, 2021 at 3:12:24 PM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

Quote: moses

It all starts with a single deck of cards. Sort like the free throw line.. it's the best place to line up your shot.. For each deck added, the computing skews and difficulty increases. Thus estimates are necessary. But in single and double deck, knowing what is played and still remains is doable.

So heck yes, I want the straight up game with decent pen in 1 or 2 decks. More than two? I'd turn blue.

Give me 7 or more rounds in single deck? I'd go Thorpe on you. 🤣

Going to 3 hands? And you're soon watching from the stands.😉
link to original post



If itís a full table Id rather play 6 deck, I donít like waiting during shuffling.
link to original post



I agree. I've bought houses in less time than it takes to shuffle 6 decks.
moses
moses
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November 19th, 2021 at 3:43:11 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: moses

For instance, suppose I have 16vs10 and the deck composition is 50% 10's/A's remainng and 50% other cards. Chances are I will bust or end up with 17. Neither would be enough to beat the nearly 50% chance of the dealer having a 10 in the hole.

So, by not hitting, there is a 50% chance the first card of my next hand will be an Ace or a 10.

Don S has written some interesting posts on the value of starting one's hand with a 10 or Ace.
link to original post



I think its true that for a shoe with a high positive count, you would prefer to not consume cards without a good reason. So, for a hit?stand decision that is an incredibly close call, you might prefer to stand even if it has a slightly lower EV. But in practice, its hard to know when to make that play unless you are tracking the cards with a computer.
link to original post



Not so fast my friend. If we are talking shoes? Then yes, you need the brain of Rainman, the valor of Rambo, with an act of Forrest Gump. "I'm not smat man, but I know what a blackjack ez."

But a percentage count of knowing what has been played vs what still remains is very doable up to two decks.

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