When the deck is loaded with high cards

I have a question that has bugged me for years. I am a casual player with an OK [I hope] grasp of basic strategy, but certainly not an expert.

Here is my question: When a deck is heavy with high cards we are advised to increase our bets because we are at an advantage. I don't disagree / distrust the advice but there is something about it that I do not understand, and it drives me crazy: How am I at more of an 'advantage' than the dealer taking cards from the same deck? Are we not equally likely to draw, say, two face cards?

The only explanation I've heard that makes sense is that I might adjust my basic strategy further into the hand and stand on, say, a 12 vs a 2 showing because I know the odds of the dealer busting are higher. What I cannot wrap my head around is how increasing my bet at the start of the hand is more in my favour than the dealer's. Although I am more likely to be dealt a high hand, are they not equally likely to be dealt something good? How is my 'advantage' not perfectly matched by the dealer's 'advantage' of taking cards from the same rich deck??

I'm not challenging the orthodoxy - I am just frustrated that I've never understood the concept behind how a deck full of high cards offers more advantage to me than it does the house.

So my question boils down to this: If I play 10,000 hands with a normal deck and 10,000 hands with a deck loaded with face cards, will my winning percentage through identical basic strategy play be different? And if so, how can that be when the dealer also has a greater chance of drawing face cards? Forget bet size for a minute - if I just play the exact same with different cards, will I win more hands?

I have always felt stupid for not understanding the concept behind this. Any explanations will be much appreciated.

Most of the EV from a deck rich in high cards comes from doubles and splits.

The dealer cannot do either, so the player has the advantage.

Right - that makes sense. You can choose to be aggressive there but they have no such choice. But, again, that's an example of something you might do based on how the hand progresses [like deciding not to hit a 12 against a 2]. I've always struggled with whether I have any advantage on those first two cards.

If all of the advantage comes after the initial deal.... that makes sense to me. And I should think that way/act on it next time I'm in Vegas. Thanks for the reply. Much appreciated.

There are 6 reasons why:

1) Blackjacks. Although the odds are same for both the dealer and player to get a blackjack, we get paid a premium of 3 to 2 (barring you aren't playing a short pay game). The dealer only gets even money.

2) Insurance. When the deck is rich in 10's, we can bet on insurance and have an edge. The dealer cannot do this.

3) Double Downs. We can double in favorable situations and have a better chance at winning. The dealer cannot double.

4) Splitting Pairs. We can split pairs, the dealer cannot.

5) Dealer bust rate on stiff hands increases. We don't have to hit a stiff hand, the dealer MUST.

6) Surrender. We can surrender lousy hands, when allowed, (16 vs 10). The dealer must hit.

Also, with more 10 value cards in the deck, the probability of getting a BJ increases. While you and the dealer are just as likely to get one, you get paid 3:2 for yours; he gets paid 1:1 for his.

EDIT: Ugh, too slow again, IBYA beat me to it!

A rich deck produces more blackjacks. You get 1.5 units when you win with one. Dealer doesn't.

Thanks - that all makes sense. Other than blackjacks paying more [which is great] it seems to come down to decisions later in a hand. I'm going to try to remember that and act on it next time I'm at the Golden Gate or Binions. Appreciate the advice.

Also, you get 3:2 on a player BJ but lose only 1:1.

Edit: ...This is what I get for opening a thread and responding way later.

Quote: HansGruber

Thanks - that all makes sense. Other than blackjacks paying more [which is great] it seems to come down to decisions later in a hand. I'm going to try to remember that and act on it next time I'm at the Golden Gate or Binions. Appreciate the advice.

Does Binions have playable blackjack?

Quote: billryan

Does Binions have playable blackjack?

Last time I was there, all their BJ was 6:5, with the exception of Zombie, which was 3:2. Also, it's one of the few (only?) BJ variants where you get to actually hit a 17v8+, so people can finally quit it with the mother-in-law jokes.

You are right that the dealer will get more 10s as well only makes since, there will also be more blackjacks both dealer and other players, you just have to hope you get yours as well, personally I have never felt the insurance bet payed off for me, guess I have not played my million hands yet. if you are lucky and have good results early on to withstand the downturns and believe me they will come then it is a winner in the loooong run. Playing for 10-80 spread you can be down 1000 in no time then up 300 then down 500 and needing to go home it is a roller coaster for sure, but probably the best chance to beat the game there is, good luck to you

Quote: HansGruber

Thanks - that all makes sense. Other than blackjacks paying more [which is great] it seems to come down to decisions later in a hand. I'm going to try to remember that and act on it next time I'm at the Golden Gate or Binions. Appreciate the advice.

Not really. A change in basic strategy is usually not needed - player's EV in basic strategy is increased more than the dealers EV when lots of high cards remain in the deck.

Stiff Hand. With basic strategy, you only hit a 13-16 about 61% of the time (when the dealers upcard is 7-A) while the dealer hits a 13-16 100% of the time - so having a lot of high cards left in the deck causes the dealer to bust a 13-16 more often than the player.

Double. Both you and the dealer will get a hard 10 or 11 with the first two cards an equal number of times - and in those scenarios both of you are hoping to draw a Ten. However, because you can double on those hands, the existence of a disproportional amount of high cards remaining in the shoe is more advantageous to the player.

Splitting AA pair. Think of it this way. If dealer's 1st two cards are a pair of aces, A-A, if dealer then draws two tens he will go bust. If players 1st two cards are A-A, he will split it - and if he then draws two tens he has made two 21s.

I will trade blackjacks with the dealer all day everyday. You get it once, I get it once, you get it once, I get it once. Even with flat betting, this is HUGE.

Quote: SiegfriedRoy

I will trade blackjacks with the dealer all day everyday. You get it once, I get it once, you get it once, I get it once. Even with flat betting, this is HUGE.

I once had a " veteran" BJ player explain why I should never play at anything less than a full table. His reasoning was one on one, the dealer gets half the BJs, but with six players, the dealer will only get 1/7th of them. It's hard to argue with logic like that.

Quote: billryan

I once had a " veteran" BJ player explain why I should never play at anything less than a full table. His reasoning was one on one, the dealer gets half the BJs, but with six players, the dealer will only get 1/7th of them. It's hard to argue with logic like that.

Generally, it’s. Good idea to play at a full table because your rating is always based on 60-70 hands an hour which is consistent with a full table. When you play one on one, you’re getting taken for only 1/7 or 1/6 of the comp you are entitled too because you see more hands per hour than 60-70.

Not really. A change in basic strategy is usually not needed - player's EV in basic strategy is increased more than the dealers EV when lots of high cards remain in the deck.

Stiff Hand. With basic strategy, you only hit a 13-16 about 61% of the time (when the dealers upcard is 7-A) while the dealer hits a 13-16 100% of the time - so having a lot of high cards left in the deck causes the dealer to bust a 13-16 more often than the player.

Double. Both you and the dealer will get a hard 10 or 11 with the first two cards an equal number of times - and in those scenarios both of you are hoping to draw a Ten. However, because you can double on those hands, the existence of a disproportional amount of high cards remaining in the shoe is more advantageous to the player.

Splitting AA pair. Think of it this way. If dealer's 1st two cards are a pair of aces, A-A, if dealer then draws two tens he will go bust. If players 1st two cards are A-A, he will split it - and if he then draws two tens he has made two 21s.

But those are things that happen beyond being dealt the first two cards. Hitting, doubling down etc. That's all I meant. The advantage isn't me getting more pairs of face cards than the dealer. The real advantage is me being able to capitalize on more big cards coming once we get beyond the deal [except for blackjacks paying me better than they do the house]. Now it makes sense to me.

Lots of good answers already, especially more blackjacks and better splits/doubles, but one factor that is more fundamental is basically that it increases the odds of busting.
To understand it you gotta understand why the dealer has an advantage in the first place, despite the fact that you play better ( if you forget BS and mimic the dealer the disadvantage is huge) and that is because you go first. So often you stay on stiff hands or 17s and hope the dealer busts.
The dealer busting means it gets close to 17 then jumps over 21. It needs to jump over a "hole" of 5 values (17 to 21). The more high cards in the deck the easier it is for a player or dealer to bust. If the deck had only 5 or smaller cards it's mathematically impossible to bust.
The reason why this factor is so important compared to the others presented, if you take a look at the EOR of 5, compared to 2 or 3 the difference is huge! 5 is the worst card for players because it is the largest card which cannot bust the dealer. It gives him the highest likelihood of reaching a total between 17 and 21. Even though if you replace 2s with 5s it doesn't affect blackjacks or double downs, the change in HE is considerable. You might think that this applies to the player as well, but the player does not play the same way. The dealer does not stay on a stiff hand.