QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 306
July 19th, 2017 at 4:59:27 PM permalink
RS is quite correct. TC is (in simple counting systems) RC/(decks left). As you progress through the shoe; the numerator gravitates toward zero and the denominator decreases at an equivalent rate. The end result is that at any round, the count is more likely to be essentially the same at the end of the round as it was at the start of the round (on weighted average, not on quantities).

Now, you might note that I have included some provisos. If you want to get into detail, the end of a round is more likely to be negative than positive. The pos and neg TC counts are not symmetrical. This is because more rounds end with a high card than a low card. But, it all works out in the end.
Last edited by: QFIT on Jul 19, 2017
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017
• Posts: 139
July 27th, 2017 at 11:18:36 AM permalink
No need to wait for TC +2, often you will have a modest advantage at TC+1 depending on the rules.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5218
July 27th, 2017 at 11:22:11 AM permalink
Quote: BlackjackGuy123

No need to wait for TC +2, often you will have a modest advantage at TC+1 depending on the rules.

At most "typical" rules that most "typical" members here on the forums play, they will not have a modest advantage at all at TC +1.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017
• Posts: 139
July 27th, 2017 at 11:29:27 AM permalink
Even a rule set as unfavourable as 6decks, H17, DAS, DA2, Peek, no surrender will show a modest advantage at TC +1; in my experience most casinos offer at least this or better, unless you are living in Western Europe. But certainly the exact rules and precise starting house edge does come into play here; the higher the initial house edge the less your chance of finding an advantage at TC +1.
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 306
July 27th, 2017 at 11:30:50 AM permalink
Unfortunately true in LV as 94% of Nevada games are H17, 3/4 of 6 deck games. Now, in Penn. or Conn., you have enough of an advantage at +1.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
• Posts: 1141
July 27th, 2017 at 11:31:04 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

At most "typical" rules that most "typical" members here on the forums play, they will not have a modest advantage at all at TC +1.

Define 'modest'.

Even with the worst rule set such as H17 DAS no resplit aces and no surrender, as long as its a 3/2 game, you will still have around a .20% advantage give or take a .01 or .02% difference depending on which count used as well as how many indices you use.

I guess youre right, thats not really 'modest', but definitely playable. For me i have around a .35% edge at +1
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." ----- Thomas Jefferson
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11932
July 27th, 2017 at 11:55:48 AM permalink
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
• Posts: 1141
July 27th, 2017 at 1:35:04 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

That was for +1 only and for worst rule scenario
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." ----- Thomas Jefferson
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5218
Thanks for this post from:
July 27th, 2017 at 1:58:31 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'd normally be on your side, I like your posting... but this is a blackjack thread. So no need to come poop on the parade of blackjack players. Either they don't know about bigger edges (good for anyone who does - such as yourself) or they don't care and want to play blackjack (all the same your comment is moot), so there's really no win from it =/.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010