boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
• Posts: 5280
June 19th, 2017 at 8:53:33 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

The rest of these really deserved their own post...

Not really that unlucky really... 4k hands is a joke. You had the owner and creator of your software (QFIT) even chime in pages and pages back stating that is says ON the software when opened that anything less than like a billion hands should be considered worthless results. You just think you're unlucky and don't realize that you're really not that unlucky. Sure you could be luckier to be up X SD's, but you're no where in your journey yet. You've played a spec of what you need to play.

At 4k hands you could be playing BASIC STRATEGY and still be up more than you're down:

assuming avg bet \$150...

EV(4k hands) = (4,000*150)*(-.005) = -\$3000
SD(4k hands) = Sqrt(4000) * 172.5 = \$11,000.

Shit, with ONE STANDARD DEVIATION JUST PLAYING BASIC STRATEGY LOSING BLACKJACK you could be up \$8k. Why do you not get how WORTHLESS your short term results really are?

That's like saying, OMG I lost 5 hands in a row... .42^5 = .013... so that happens only ONE percent of the time OMG OMG OMG... but what you don't realize is that happens 1 out of every 100 hands you play and if you're a pro playing 500-1000 hands per day you're going to see that on a DAILY basis. So you can cry "5%" or whatever all you want, but what you don't realize is you're not unlucky, that's the math and natural swings of the game (as we've been telling you all along). When you realize that, then you'll realize how bad you look for crying "omg 5% of the time..." because it just shows you don't understand the math of the game you're playing and claiming to be one of the best at.

Let me try to clarify something for you, that maybe you don't understand fully... The cards do not care what town you're in. You're giving meaning to something that's meaningless. It doesn't matter that you just moved. It doesn't matter that you just started in vegas or anywhere. You are NOT getting unlucky. These are the NATURAL swings of the game. Period.

I did all that analysis for him a page ago and determined that his standard deviation based on 4,000 hands (n= 4000) at playing 2 hands is 1.903 x the bet size at each hand is about 120.695 times his average bet.

He is claiming a 1.5% advantage which I think is bulls**t. But nonetheless at an average of say \$100/hand x 2 / hand that is 800,000 bet with an expected win of 12,000 +/- \$12,069.

That puts him at about -1.81 standard deviations below normal or about the 3.5% percentile. Sucks but nothing to prove cheating. Just the wrong side of variance. It is quite possible that PA gave me false confidence and that his buildup of 61k back home made him think that he had an advantage he didn't have.

My feeling is that the heat and nervousness is blowing his count, his betting / spread is wrong and that his advantage by not wonging out early and coming in cold is pushing his edge lower. But he will claim the opposite. He also said something big was going down on Friday. Apparently there was a change of heart.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
PokerGrinder
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
• Posts: 1522
Thanks for this post from:
June 19th, 2017 at 9:13:21 AM permalink
This thread has become my morning crack fix. I wake up read the D day thread, have a giggle, shake my head, maybe one more giggle while shaking my head and then I move on with my day. Thank you ZK for the comedy, it's much appreciated.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
• Posts: 5632
June 19th, 2017 at 9:24:00 AM permalink
Yeah, it's kind of like "I once felt sorry for myself because I had no shoes, but then I met a man who had no feet."
"What, me worry?"
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
• Posts: 5280
June 19th, 2017 at 9:26:01 AM permalink
My feelings are mixed on the entire issue. Generally I wish the best for people, and hope that ZK rights himself with his attitude and his expectations. On the other hand, it is just a matter of time before the Strip casinos pick up on him and no longer welcome his play and then what???
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 12741
June 19th, 2017 at 9:41:41 AM permalink
I think something big did go down Friday, he has been silent and I even texted him regarding something that would have been of concern to him.

I hope the guy is ok.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
• Posts: 624
June 19th, 2017 at 9:42:10 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

This thread has become my morning crack fix. I wake up read the D day thread, have a giggle, shake my head, maybe one more giggle while shaking my head and then I move on with my day. Thank you ZK for the comedy, it's much appreciated.

I felt like this for the first few months. After that I lost interest and didn't check on the site for months. After that I came back and D Day was the second installment. I followed on and enjoyed it up until the other day when he was claiming God is cursing him compared to the rest of us who struggle every day in these Casinos. I am starting to feel like he is just trying to get attention now and I'm not amused anymore. Honestly he has plenty of information and he should be able to figure it out even if he has to take a break from BJ and do some other things with less earning potential. I do check back to see what happens as my interest now is how much he is up or down and if Gaming laughed at him when he put in a complaint.
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
• Posts: 935
Thanks for this post from:
June 19th, 2017 at 9:51:44 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Yeah, it's kind of like "I once felt sorry for myself because I had no shoes, but then I met a man who had no feet."

I felt sorry for myself because I wasn't blessed by God, then I met a man who was cursed by God
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 10975
June 19th, 2017 at 10:24:31 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

I felt sorry for myself because I wasn't blessed by God, then I met a man who was cursed by God

There a scene in the horror movie "Pumpkinhead" where the dead kids dad tries to get the witch to stop the beast and she doesn't. He goes on to say "God damn you" to which she replies "He already has."
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 3292
June 19th, 2017 at 11:13:39 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think something big did go down Friday, he has been silent and I even texted him regarding something that would have been of concern to him.

I hope the guy is ok.

More likely his vacation is over and he is driving back home to sleep in the basement.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014