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mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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May 21st, 2017 at 1:12:26 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

... but being in the 50-60k range still makes me a bit nervous that the math won't always correct itself in time and that I could end up 20k or lower and having to adjust my bet sizes and then all bets are off. That did happen once actually around the 300-400 hr mark where I lost most of my profit to date and then made it all back and then some.

The bet resizing to a lower level ... (I've heard)... is the main reason pro BJ teams play 1/4-1/2 Kelly (instead of full Kelly). A bad hit in the beginning can drop your hourly rate to 1/2-1/4, and people might not want to continue. If you lose half your bankroll, now you have to 4X your bankroll to double-up.

I occasionally play full Kelly on one series of slot machines (Prefer 1/4 Kelly), and I'm always a little nervous.

It's why I don't play $25K, $50K, $100K slot progressives.
I don't have the bankroll for full Kelly (much less 1/4 Kelly).

Full Kelly on a $100K might be $5-20 million, depending on competition (start values).
1/4 Kelly on a $100K might be $20-80 million.

Of course, many people/teams are willing to play slot progressives with less money, which is why so many have gone broke (playing 5x-10x Kelly, insane).

Here's some blog posts on 1/2 Kelly & 1/4 Kelly.
http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/11/half-kelly-bet.html
http://www.financial-math.org/blog/2013/10/two-tales-of-the-kelly-formula/

Edward Thorp - "...if you bet half the Kelly amount, you get about three-quarters of the return with half the volatility. So it is much more comfortable to trade. I believe that betting half Kelly is psychologically much better."

Hackensack - "The quarter Kelly bet is even safer. You cut your volatility by a quartic factor while reducing your return expectation by half. For example, you stand only a 6.25% of losing half your money. If you can find enough uncorrelated bets to get all your money invested, you can still invest 100% of your stake with a high safety factor with multiple quarter Kelly bets."
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
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May 22nd, 2017 at 12:17:41 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

The bet resizing to a lower level ... (I've heard)... is the main reason pro BJ teams play 1/4-1/2 Kelly (instead of full Kelly). A bad hit in the beginning can drop your hourly rate to 1/2-1/4, and people might not want to continue. If you lose half your bankroll, now you have to 4X your bankroll to double-up.

I occasionally play full Kelly on one series of slot machines (Prefer 1/4 Kelly), and I'm always a little nervous.

It's why I don't play $25K, $50K, $100K slot progressives.
I don't have the bankroll for full Kelly (much less 1/4 Kelly).

Full Kelly on a $100K might be $5-20 million, depending on competition (start values).
1/4 Kelly on a $100K might be $20-80 million.

Of course, many people/teams are willing to play slot progressives with less money, which is why so many have gone broke (playing 5x-10x Kelly, insane).

Here's some blog posts on 1/2 Kelly & 1/4 Kelly.
http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/11/half-kelly-bet.html
http://www.financial-math.org/blog/2013/10/two-tales-of-the-kelly-formula/

Edward Thorp - "...if you bet half the Kelly amount, you get about three-quarters of the return with half the volatility. So it is much more comfortable to trade. I believe that betting half Kelly is psychologically much better."

Hackensack - "The quarter Kelly bet is even safer. You cut your volatility by a quartic factor while reducing your return expectation by half. For example, you stand only a 6.25% of losing half your money. If you can find enough uncorrelated bets to get all your money invested, you can still invest 100% of your stake with a high safety factor with multiple quarter Kelly bets."



I don't use Kelly. I just make my own custom spread through CVCX and try to get as good of a N0 and ROR as possible. I have about a 13k N0 and 0.3% ROR. My bet sizes are as follows:

TC1 = 2x50
TC2 = 2x100
TC3 = 2x150
TC4 = 2x200
TC5 = 2x250

P.S I lost again today to the tune of 700. What a great start to Vegas. Unreal. Down about 5700 in 12 hours of work. Bankroll is completely depreciating ever since the road trip starting withh the gas to get here, car depreciation, motel stays, and first months rent. Now add the big loss and that 60k is now 52.5k. Just makes me laugh because these losses rarely happen and that it had to happen exactly when I start my quest in Vegas. This is the exact reason why I say I'm cursed in life. Its not even just blackjack, but in so many other things I have gone through so far in this bullshit life. I have to work twice as hard as the next guy just to be even.

It is what it is, it doesn't even bother me anymore, someone has to be that guy. The "1/20 type of guy" for something rare to happen to is me and always has been; oh and by the way, please don't give me the old cliche of "You got to think positive". The only people who believe in positivity and karma etc are people who never had major adversity in their lives. They think life is a bunch of bullshit unicorns and rainbows.

And on a other note, if I see another 6:5 blackjack game being offered I'm gonna start making 100s of flyers and posting it all over the strip telling everyone to stay away from that scam garbage. This is beyond ridiculous, everyone needs to do their part and educating these idiots who continouslly fill up these scam 6:5 tables. Freakin ridiculous
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 22nd, 2017 at 12:46:26 AM permalink
You are in you mid twenties, had a college education handed to you, lived off your parents until two weeks ago, never been grocery shopping in your life, have$ 50,000 cash in your pocket and a paid off car and want to complain about how you have to work twice as hard as anyone just to get even.
What did they say about George Bush? He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple?
This thread is pure comedy gold.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
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May 22nd, 2017 at 1:28:13 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

You are in you mid twenties, had a college education handed to you, lived off your parents until two weeks ago, never been grocery shopping in your life, have$ 50,000 cash in your pocket and a paid off car and want to complain about how you have to work twice as hard as anyone just to get even.
What did they say about George Bush? He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple?
This thread is pure comedy gold.



The problem you overlook is you're stating everything I earned including that 50k+. You're not looking at the fact of how 'much more' I should have. Let's say someone worked 5 million hours in their life and only had 75k to show for it? You think that's fair? That's my point. You can't just label what I have and say that's a given and how lucky I am. I worked for everything I got. Regarding college, if parents never paid for it, I would've never gone anyway. The degree is useless anyway and I wasted 4.5 years of my life for nothing.

With all the work I've put in, any normal person would've had over 100k. Not just talking about blackjack, but all the jobs I've had and saved up etc, you really have to be unlucky to only have 52.5k. It is what it is, that's why I'm the best, no amount of adversity can stop me. I'm used to it. Life wouldn't be fair if I had even half the luck as any other normal person in this world.
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
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May 22nd, 2017 at 3:29:04 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

The degree is useless anyway and I wasted 4.5 years of my life for nothing.

Right or wrong, fair or not, I think that having a college diploma is kindof a pre-requisite these days to getting a foot in the door at a company where a career can be started. I am not saying it should be, it just is in many situations..........

So, at least you have that.
I don't give a hoot about what people have to say, I'm laughing as I'm analyzed. Lunatics anonymous, that's where we belong, Sure, cause I am one, till my strength is gone, Yeah, this beat goes on - Da Kings: The North Coast's Friday Anthem
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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Hunterhill
May 22nd, 2017 at 4:36:53 AM permalink
People who've worked for everything in life don't think that food comes from the grocery fairy. Because they had to go out and work for money, then use it to buy food, you see. Some of them even have to pay for shelter.

Quote: ZenKinG

The problem you overlook is you're stating everything I earned including that 50k+. You're not looking at the fact of how 'much more' I should have. Let's say someone worked 5 million hours in their life and only had 75k to show for it?



Millions (billions?) of people, do in fact work for less than a dollar an hour. And that work ain't playing blackjack. No, it's not fair. But the person it is unfair to is not you.

Bad luck isn't making less money than you think you deserve while living off your rich parents in a rich country. It's getting terminal cancer when you are six.

If you are a real person, which I still doubt, I guess you are still a fake persona to cover up your real situation. e.g. you've had an extremely easy life of great fortune, and maybe you think this diminshes you for some reason. So you go on tirades about how hard you've had it and how you've worked for everything you've had, like you're some depression era boxer who fought his way out of the train yards.

Accept that you are lucky, rather than unlucky or even "cursed." If you're cursed, what is someone born with horrible birth defects in the rubble of Iraq?

This might be scary, because, if you are a very fortunate person and then fall flat on your face, it makes you feel like a total eff-up. But denial won't change anything. Maybe you are a total eff-up. Plenty of time to fix it.

For example, if you completed a business degree without learning anything that you can apply to the rest of your life, especially running your own business as an AP, then that is not because Zeus threw a lightning bolt at you.

Be happy about your good fortune. Look for ways to make the most of it. You'll get better results than pretending you're unlucky because not enough fell into your lap.

Lastly, post a picture of your hand flipping me the bird in front of a current copy of the Las Vegas Review Journal.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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May 22nd, 2017 at 4:50:43 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

The degree is useless anyway and I wasted 4.5 years of my life for nothing.


Get a govt job?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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May 22nd, 2017 at 9:14:59 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

I'm the best.



Would "the best" really have lost $5700 in the first twelve hours?

Time to get humble.
"What, me worry?"
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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May 22nd, 2017 at 9:21:56 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Get a govt job?



I would suggest you apply as a federal air traffic controller, because

1. They're hiring
2. They will train you from the ground up.
3. They pay great money, 8x-10x minimum wage.
3a. Best benefits anywhere, much better than most private employers.
4. You fit the profile for success in every way...

EXCEPT

A. Your attitude is so horrible you couldn't pass the psychological profile testing. You'd end up killing a couple airplanes worth of people.

You're the one shutting that door and nobody else. Might be time for you to do some community service and wtfu about your blessings so far in this life and your potential from here out.

But of course you stopped reading a while back, so GL and I'll stop wasting my breath.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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May 22nd, 2017 at 9:26:56 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Would "the best" really have lost $5700 in the first twelve hours?

Time to get humble.


The "best" have lost more than that in one hand.
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"

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