LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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April 19th, 2017 at 9:50:43 AM permalink
Quote: LostWages

I am just hoping there might be some new opinions from the WoV forum mathletes [about the long run]? Please express in non-technical terms, if possible, or add explanations to terms used.

My question is "what is generally considered as the long run in Blackjack?"



The thread leaves me close to breathless, but I wanted to make a small contribution to my own OP. From all the posts, the ones I could absorb more easily than others came from RS and Romes -- basically, engaging in the long run depends on defining your acceptance ranges of Lady Variance, coupled with a reasonably good idea on the EV of the game you're playing.

The "long run" will be different for everyone, and is triggered by the conditions evolving at the time you start your run.

Apologies to the mathletes - I'm challenged to convert that sentence into mathematical expressions like N0 and SDs. But I'm glad to swim in the waters of master swimmers as I balance my breathing, stroke, and leg kicks . . . Thanks everyone!

--> My contribution with sources cited:

in the long run
Over a lengthy period of time, in the end. For example, He realized that in the long run, their argument wouldn't seem so awful. This expression, which originated as at the long run in the early 1600s, presumably alludes to a runner who continues on his course to the end. Economist John Maynard Keynes used it in a much-quoted quip about economic planning: "In the long run we are all dead." The antonym, in the short run, meaning "over a short period of time," dates only from the 1800s. The novelist George Eliot used both in a letter (October 18, 1879): "Mrs.Healy's marriage is surely what you expected in the long or short run."
See also: long, run
The American Heritage® Dictionary of Idioms by Christine Ammer. Copyright © 2003, 1997 by The Christine Ammer 1992 Trust. Published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. All rights reserved.
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
InTimeForSpace1
InTimeForSpace1
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April 20th, 2017 at 3:09:02 PM permalink
Quote: LostWages

...Economist John Maynard Keynes used it in a much-quoted quip about economic planning: "In the long run we are all dead."

He meant that we shouldn't live by the long run, in the sense that we let it run our lives? That there are things we can do now not to have to wait for or play by the long run? That it's stupid to live that way? That the long-run view of life is misleading? Come to think of it, he did do some original work in statistics, but that's not quite the same as gambling.
Last edited by: InTimeForSpace1 on Apr 20, 2017
Believers are the ones who keep at it long after they've been told it can't be done. On the other hand, the real experts shouldn't care about the crackpots. But, if the wrong answer begs the question, then the wrong question begs the answer.
QFIT
QFIT
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April 20th, 2017 at 3:17:08 PM permalink
No, I don't think that was what Keynes meant, and the out-of-context quote is oft repeated as a false characterization of Keynesian economics. The full quote:

"The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again."

He was arguing against Adam Smith's concept of the "invisible hand". The concept that if you just let markets do what they will, there will be a set of natural pressures that will bring about equilibrium in the markets. A concept that history has not favorably ratified.

But, I'm not an economist.
Last edited by: QFIT on Apr 20, 2017
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
InTimeForSpace1
InTimeForSpace1
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April 20th, 2017 at 3:30:35 PM permalink
"He is exasperated with the view of mainstream economists that the economy is an equilibrium system which will eventually return to a point of balance, so long as the government doesn’t interfere and if we are only willing to wait." http://www.simontaylorsblog.com/2013/05/05/the-true-meaning-of-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead/

I think that an "equilibrium system" in economics implies a stochastic process as well, which is at least more than "markets do what they will".
Believers are the ones who keep at it long after they've been told it can't be done. On the other hand, the real experts shouldn't care about the crackpots. But, if the wrong answer begs the question, then the wrong question begs the answer.
QFIT
QFIT
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April 20th, 2017 at 3:35:21 PM permalink
Yes, an equilibrium system suggests natural pressures, like those that keep oxygen fairly well distributed in a room instead of migrating to one side. Properties of physical systems. Adam Smith suggested such pressures exist in economic systems. Keynes was making light of that, as was I. Many have made light of Keynes by half-quoting him.

At least that's my interpretation.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
InTimeForSpace1
InTimeForSpace1
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April 20th, 2017 at 4:03:28 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

At least that's my interpretation.

I guess that gamblers tend to confuse (personal) will, which also is often found in the markets, with the term equilibrium system. The other thing I've noticed over the years is that gamblers fail to separate the gambling math from the casino games. Life isn't a gamble, good or otherwise, and it's telling when people talk, and actually think, as though it really is.
Believers are the ones who keep at it long after they've been told it can't be done. On the other hand, the real experts shouldn't care about the crackpots. But, if the wrong answer begs the question, then the wrong question begs the answer.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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April 20th, 2017 at 4:12:25 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Yes, an equilibrium system suggests natural pressures, like those that keep oxygen fairly well distributed in a room instead of migrating to one side. Properties of physical systems. Adam Smith suggested such pressures exist in economic systems. Keynes was making light of that, as was I.


So then, would you say that the boom/bust phenomenon that continually recurs in free market economies is not in fact a pressure that causes a return to equilibrium?
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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Thanks for this post from:
RS
April 20th, 2017 at 4:32:42 PM permalink
Quote: InTimeForSpace1

I guess that gamblers tend to confuse (personal) will, which also is often found in the markets, with the term equilibrium system. The other thing I've noticed over the years is that gamblers fail to separate the gambling math from the casino games. Life isn't a gamble, good or otherwise, and it's telling when people talk, and actually think, as though it really is.


Speaking of long run, how much longer are the admins going to let this banned/former member keep posting?
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
QFIT
QFIT
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April 20th, 2017 at 5:09:19 PM permalink
Quote: InTimeForSpace1

I guess that gamblers tend to confuse (personal) will, which also is often found in the markets, with the term equilibrium system. The other thing I've noticed over the years is that gamblers fail to separate the gambling math from the casino games. Life isn't a gamble, good or otherwise, and it's telling when people talk, and actually think, as though it really is.



Well, only those that fall for gambler's fallacy. Life is a gamble, in some sense, every time you get out of bed or cross the street. But, you are certainly correct that those that attribute concepts like equilibrium are ignorant of the mechanics. That is not to insult all of them. Depends on objectives. Those that want to have a fun vacation probably have a better time playing a stupid system than the grinder with an advantage, even though the grinder is better off in the long run monetarily. Gambling addicts longing for the magical system, would be addicted to something else if gambling didn't exist. At least they are contributing to the casinos, so that they have money to give to APs.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
QFIT
QFIT
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April 20th, 2017 at 5:12:07 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

So then, would you say that the boom/bust phenomenon that continually recurs in free market economies is not in fact a pressure that causes a return to equilibrium?



Problem with economic discussions is they always veer towards politics. Not going there.:) But, thanks for the question.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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