OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1901
March 7th, 2017 at 11:13:49 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Playing over 700 hours and only having 23.5k to show for it when my EV is a conservative 50k, it hurts quite a bit. Im close to 1 SD down. As much as this thread sounds like im searching for pity, im not. Just wondering if others have experienced underperforming over such a long stretch of time/hours.

Woah....
You estimated that you should be $50k up ($70 per hour)up and you are only $23.5k ($32 per hour) and you are surprised and irritated?
You claim to have more than doubled a starting bankroll which was way underfunded at (45k-(45k+23.5k))=21.5k. I don't understand what's to be sickened about?

Now. Onto your SD calculations: Did you estimate that you are "almost 1SD away" based on your estimated average bet size? Because you should actually estimate based on each individual bet size because a few big bets will have massive contribution. In any case, you claim that 700 hours is a "good sample size.": It's not! 'Almost 1SD away' is not at all remarkable ( if you calculated it properly) You stood a 1 in 3 chance of being there under the criteria that you yourself applied. over 32% of players playing as you did would experience equally crap results.

I'm taking your word for the calculated EV and SD, though I suspect your estimates were flawed.

I also doubt that you are as proficient as you think.

Think yourself lucky you came out ahead.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Mar 7, 2017
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1901
March 7th, 2017 at 11:25:00 AM permalink
Quote: crazydazy

The good news is that if everything you say is true, regression to the mean should make you feel good because when you start to run "normal" it's going to feel like running hot. Basically you are a favorite to run better than you are currently running and your next 716.5 hours should be easier than these.


Hmmm no. Gambler's fallacy.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 218
Thanks for this post from:
RS
March 7th, 2017 at 12:25:55 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Hmmm no. Gambler's fallacy.



No, crazydazy is right.

If results are "below EV" to this point, he is a favorite to run better than that in the future. Starting at this point in time, he would be expected to have future results of "EV," which is obviously better than "below EV."

He is NOT favored to run better than EV in order to "make up" for his prior bad luck, which I think is at least one definition of "gambler's fallacy." But that is not what crazydazy is saying.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1901
Thanks for this post from:
MrGoldenSun
March 7th, 2017 at 12:31:07 PM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

No, crazydazy is right.

If results are "below EV" to this point, he is a favorite to run better than that in the future. Starting at this point in time, he would be expected to have future results of "EV," which is obviously better than "below EV."

He is NOT favored to run better than EV in order to "make up" for his prior bad luck, which I think is at least one definition of "gambler's fallacy." But that is not what crazydazy is saying.


Acknowledged
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 1538
March 7th, 2017 at 1:05:01 PM permalink
Zen,

Counting cards is actually just the cover play for hole carding. Meaning, most of the people making money say that they're counting, when they're really hole carding. The others are just camouflaging wins from elsewhere. The same is true when you're 86ed. It's just the cover story. You don't need to immediately know how many sds you are outside the norm, or whether or not your strategy is exactly to computer model, because in the casino if you're playing that way... you're not going to make dirt. You're also going to stick out like a sore thumb and the casino is going to limit your betting.

If you're into the minimalist lifestyle, then go for it. (FYI, women aren't particularly attracted to that) Just stick to counting.

However if you want to make money, think bigger. Get a higher edge, and learn the art of hole carding and edging.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 218
Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
March 7th, 2017 at 1:21:40 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Acknowledged



However, I also agree with your prior post, so everyone's a winner! 1 SD under is not remotely unusual, and I think there is a some chance OP is miscalculating EV or SD.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 401
Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolfRomes
March 13th, 2017 at 1:54:40 AM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

However, I also agree with your prior post, so everyone's a winner! 1 SD under is not remotely unusual, and I think there is a some chance OP is miscalculating EV or SD.

Even a 1% error rate, can wreck havoc with your long-term return.

My guess is OP is used to being "smarter" than the people he's around, but unlike "even smarter" people (or not-so-smart people who have more wisdom, humbleness, or experience), is stubborn and has a hard time accepting good information & advice.

1) Not recognizing the value of good advice - bad sign...
2) Not recognizing "I might not be 100% correct in everything I say" - another bad sign...
3) Stubbornness is often a sign of "a little above-average" intelligence - good, but not so great sign...

Good luck to the OP.

...but I would suggest finding some more humility, intelligence, or experience.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 529
March 13th, 2017 at 5:21:53 PM permalink
Well I'm happy to report since I made this thread last week I've caught a good run of cards and rallied a +11,300 win over 3 trips totaling 26 hours. I'm now at an all time high in profit and my bankroll is over 55k.

I always knew this game was a roller coaster, but actually going through the swings you really start understanding the true nature of this sickening, but yet humbling game. Throughout these 750 hours, ive learned to never get big headed playing blackjack at least in the form of AP counting. Hole carding might be a bit of a different story.

I'm now somewhat close to EV, though not really sure because I've done a terrible job at estimating how many rounds per hour I actually get. I'm guessing through the combination of styles I play, that it's somewhere in the 60-70 rounds per hour range maybe higher because I do play heads up quite a bit.

All I know is for anyone considering counting, it is the epitome of a grind and it will test you internally to the point you actually start to believe casinos are cheating. (P.S. I still think Harrahs is cheating lol). Nonetheless, I now understand why blackjack still exists and it all makes sense now. Regardless of how good you are, the game is a huge grind and is tough to beat. More often than not, most players will fail because they don't have the discipline and perseverance or bankroll size to fight through the swings.

Here's to more good cards.
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 584
March 13th, 2017 at 5:29:21 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Well I'm happy to report since I made this thread last week I've caught a good run of cards and rallied a +11,300 win over 3 trips totaling 26 hours. I'm now at an all time high in profit and my bankroll is over 55k.

I always knew this game was a roller coaster, but actually going through the swings you really start understanding the true nature of this sickening, but yet humbling game. Throughout these 750 hours, ive learned to never get big headed playing blackjack at least in the form of AP counting. Hole carding might be a bit of a different story.

I'm now somewhat close to EV, though not really sure because I've done a terrible job at estimating how many rounds per hour I actually get. I'm guessing through the combination of styles I play, that it's somewhere in the 60-70 rounds per hour range maybe higher because I do play heads up quite a bit.

All I know is for anyone considering counting, it is the epitome of a grind and it will test you internally to the point you actually start to believe casinos are cheating. (P.S. I still think Harrahs is cheating lol). Nonetheless, I now understand why blackjack still exists and it all makes sense now. Regardless of how good you are, the game is a huge grind and is tough to beat. More often than not, most players will fail because they don't have the discipline and perseverance or bankroll size to fight through the swings.

Here's to more good cards.



Do you play bj in the back room by the noodle bar at Harrahs Philly?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 529
March 13th, 2017 at 6:28:00 PM permalink
no i only play on the main floor. I actually never checked out the hi limit room, i might go check it out next time. What are the minimums in there? I sometimes play $50 games heads up at other stores and wong out at -1. Maybe ill do better in the hi limit room there.
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF

  • Jump to: