Playing over 700 hours and only having 23.5k to show for it when my EV is a conservative 50k, it hurts quite a bit. Im close to 1 SD down. As much as this thread sounds like im searching for pity, im not. Just wondering if others have experienced underperforming over such a long stretch of time/hours.
The good news is that if everything you say is true, regression to the mean should make you feel good because when you start to run "normal" it's going to feel like running hot. Basically you are a favorite to run better than you are currently running and your next 716.5 hours should be easier than these.
Hmmm no. Gambler's fallacy.
No, crazydazy is right.
If results are "below EV" to this point, he is a favorite to run better than that in the future. Starting at this point in time, he would be expected to have future results of "EV," which is obviously better than "below EV."
He is NOT favored to run better than EV in order to "make up" for his prior bad luck, which I think is at least one definition of "gambler's fallacy." But that is not what crazydazy is saying.
Even a 1% error rate, can wreck havoc with your long-term return.Quote: MrGoldenSun
However, I also agree with your prior post, so everyone's a winner! 1 SD under is not remotely unusual, and I think there is a some chance OP is miscalculating EV or SD.
Well I'm happy to report since I made this thread last week I've caught a good run of cards and rallied a +11,300 win over 3 trips totaling 26 hours. I'm now at an all time high in profit and my bankroll is over 55k.
I always knew this game was a roller coaster, but actually going through the swings you really start understanding the true nature of this sickening, but yet humbling game. Throughout these 750 hours, ive learned to never get big headed playing blackjack at least in the form of AP counting. Hole carding might be a bit of a different story.
I'm now somewhat close to EV, though not really sure because I've done a terrible job at estimating how many rounds per hour I actually get. I'm guessing through the combination of styles I play, that it's somewhere in the 60-70 rounds per hour range maybe higher because I do play heads up quite a bit.
All I know is for anyone considering counting, it is the epitome of a grind and it will test you internally to the point you actually start to believe casinos are cheating. (P.S. I still think Harrahs is cheating lol). Nonetheless, I now understand why blackjack still exists and it all makes sense now. Regardless of how good you are, the game is a huge grind and is tough to beat. More often than not, most players will fail because they don't have the discipline and perseverance or bankroll size to fight through the swings.
Here's to more good cards.