VIDEO BLACKJACK - INSURANCE / ODDS & POSSIBLE EV?
November 23rd, 2016 at 7:26:35 AM
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A few days ago I was playing at a casino on the east coast (I won't mention any names), where they offered free insurance. The game is an 8 deck revolving shoe, you can only split twice, bj pays 3/2 & dealer hits on soft 17. How much does insurance mathematically affect the game?
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Nov 25, 2016
November 23rd, 2016 at 7:42:26 AM
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I think you should stop calling it a loophole. It clearly isn't. The game isn't designed to operate that way.
If this game exists, I'm sure there are people who would dearly love you to delete your post.
If this game exists, I'm sure there are people who would dearly love you to delete your post.
November 23rd, 2016 at 12:23:19 PM
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That is worth an extra unit every 42 hands or so, or an increase in expected value of about 2.37%, depending on the number of decks.
I expect you're getting a flood of PM's by now, offering to buy the name of the casino or machine maker and model. I would recommend forum members exercise proper skepticism, especially given that this is a new member.
Let me remind the forum that flagging for reasons that you don't want a post read is not an acceptable reason, except for the original poster. We are able to tell who flags what post. It is a suspension-worthy offense.
I expect you're getting a flood of PM's by now, offering to buy the name of the casino or machine maker and model. I would recommend forum members exercise proper skepticism, especially given that this is a new member.
Let me remind the forum that flagging for reasons that you don't want a post read is not an acceptable reason, except for the original poster. We are able to tell who flags what post. It is a suspension-worthy offense.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2016 at 1:32:40 PM
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Thanks Wizard for answering my question. Obviously I knew that the "loophole" benifits the player, but no one around these parts were exactly sure just how the math worked out, and more importantly if it helps enough to create positive EV to make it worth it to play in the long-term. The continous shuffle along with the fact that it's electronic blackjack render counting obsolete, so the real question is even if someone were to use perfect basic strategy, could one gain an edge?
To reply to Sabre, I understand your point, but that's why I left out the name and location of the casino. I was asking the question from more of a mathematical perspective. (Although maybe your right I should have been less specific and left out the east coast part) Lol
To reply to Sabre, I understand your point, but that's why I left out the name and location of the casino. I was asking the question from more of a mathematical perspective. (Although maybe your right I should have been less specific and left out the east coast part) Lol
November 23rd, 2016 at 1:51:24 PM
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So basically, when you make the insurance bet, lets say it's $5, doing what you described, and when the dealer doesn't have a blackjack, the machine returns the $5 to you instead of keeping it?
What happens when the dealer does have a blackjack? Will that same $5 be returned along with the $10 2:1 pay off and you keeping your original $10 bet?
What happens when the dealer does have a blackjack? Will that same $5 be returned along with the $10 2:1 pay off and you keeping your original $10 bet?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
November 23rd, 2016 at 3:08:33 PM
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That's correct. When the dealer doesn't have bj, by releasing the button with the correct timing, the bet won't count. However if they do have bj, continuing to hold the bet down (in this case the $5 insurance bet)would be accepted and you would protect your initial bet.
Very briefly, Once insurance is closed, the dealer will go into an animation before they reveal their card, and the type of animation gives away whether they have blackjack before they flip their card. By holding the yes selection down(akin to holding down your mouse clicker instead of clicking on a link), it doesn't register your selection and it briefly still allows you to choose during the beginning portion of the dealer animation. So by releasing (or holding onto if there's bj) the button with precise timing prior to the flip(tipped off by the dealer animation), you can avoid paying for insurance.
Very briefly, Once insurance is closed, the dealer will go into an animation before they reveal their card, and the type of animation gives away whether they have blackjack before they flip their card. By holding the yes selection down(akin to holding down your mouse clicker instead of clicking on a link), it doesn't register your selection and it briefly still allows you to choose during the beginning portion of the dealer animation. So by releasing (or holding onto if there's bj) the button with precise timing prior to the flip(tipped off by the dealer animation), you can avoid paying for insurance.
November 23rd, 2016 at 3:47:56 PM
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I guess the ultimate question for Wizard (and why I posted this on the forum in the first place) is to discern whether or not it would be worth it (from a mathematical perspective) to spend the time, energy and money on this bj game given the "loophole"? Wizard did mention that it does add about a 2% EV, but is that enough to make it a positive EV game overall?
November 23rd, 2016 at 4:10:51 PM
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What's the most you can bet per hand? Do you know the other blackjack rules, especially what does a winning player blackjack pay?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2016 at 4:17:38 PM
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It's a 10 min (I believe 500 max), 8 deck game continuous shuffle, bj pays 3 to 2, can split only twice (DAS permitted), dealer hits on soft 17
November 23rd, 2016 at 5:41:43 PM
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I'll assume no re-splitting aces or surrender. That gives us a house edge of 0.66%, before factoring in the insurance bug.
The probability of an ace-up dealer blackjack is (1/13)*(128/415) = 2.37%. Every time that happens the player gets an extra unit. So overall house edge of -0.66% + 2.37% = 1.71%.
Let's assume 500 hands per hour at $500 a bet. That makes this play worth $4,275 per hour.
The probability of an ace-up dealer blackjack is (1/13)*(128/415) = 2.37%. Every time that happens the player gets an extra unit. So overall house edge of -0.66% + 2.37% = 1.71%.
Let's assume 500 hands per hour at $500 a bet. That makes this play worth $4,275 per hour.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2016 at 6:17:55 PM
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Quote: Wizard
The probability of an ace-up dealer blackjack is (1/13)*(128/415) = 2.37%. Every time that happens the player gets an extra unit.
the op says you got your insurance bet returned when the dealer does not have a black jack, shouldn't it be:
"every time the dealer has an ace-up and NOT a black jack the player gets an extra credit?"
or does it work out the same as your 2.37%
November 23rd, 2016 at 6:28:58 PM
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Quote: andysifthe op says you got your insurance bet returned when the dealer does not have a black jack, shouldn't it be:
"every time the dealer has an ace-up and NOT a black jack the player gets an extra credit?"
or does it work out the same as your 2.37%
When the dealer has an ace up and not insurance the player is losing a half unit on the insurance bet and getting it back. It is the same as not taking it in the first place. The only situation where it makes a difference is when the dealer has an ace up and a ten in the hole, where the player profits an extra unit.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2016 at 6:50:19 PM
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If it's the game with the simulated dealers, you aren't getting anywhere near 500 hands an hour. At an empty table, you'd be lucky to get 200. With other players, you are lucky to get much more than sixty or seventy. At even 104 hands an hour, you'll get around eight Dealer Aces an hour. As he will win more than three, on average, this is worth a bit less than five units an hour in real world play.
If my math is correct.
Would betting $500 result in hand pay and tax forms on a blackjack? That would slow it even more. I read about an electronic craps machine that locked on every big win, just because of the size of the bet.
If my math is correct.
Would betting $500 result in hand pay and tax forms on a blackjack? That would slow it even more. I read about an electronic craps machine that locked on every big win, just because of the size of the bet.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
November 23rd, 2016 at 7:21:09 PM
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I would not advise betting $500 a hand. If you get a blackjack, that'll be a $1250 win (500 + 750), it'll trigger it as a slot jackpot, and will require hand pay causing attention, time lost, AND lots of unwanted paperwork. Also, if you also bet $300, and you double down and win that'll be a $1200 win creating a hand pay scenario. This happened to my friend in Vegas when he decided to do max bet on the machine blackjack for $500, and when he hit blackjack, his ordeal took 15 mins to sort out due to lack of casino personnel on the floor.
November 23rd, 2016 at 7:23:25 PM
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Quote: SiegfriedRoyI would not advise betting $500 a hand. If you get a blackjack, that'll be a $1250 win (500 + 750), it'll trigger it as a slot jackpot, and will require hand pay causing attention, time lost, AND lots of unwanted paperwork. Also, if you also bet $300, and you double down and win that'll be a $1200 win creating a hand pay scenario. This happened to my friend in Vegas when he decided to do max bet on the machine blackjack for $500, and when he hit blackjack, his ordeal took 15 mins to sort out due to lack of casino personnel on the floor.
The max bet would be $149 if you wanted to play Optimum Strategy given that this game has DAS.
At $150, you could split to two hands, double on both, and if you win both, you're at $1,200.
ADDED:
Wizard says a 1.71% player edge, though, so if you look at that $149 bet and the 104 HPH (why 104?) that Bill Ryan selected, you have:
(149 * 104) * .0171 = $264.9816/hour
Which is still a hell of a play, best I would have ever personally seen. Even if the OP's bankroll can't tolerate that kind of RoR, even ten bucks a hand makes you $17.784 per hour. Double that and you're over $35/hour.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 23rd, 2016 at 7:34:30 PM
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Aren't you better off betting $299 a hand and if you split, you just choose to not double down, but hitting? That way you're maximizing your amount in play? How many times an hour are you going to get in a situation where when you split you'll have a chance to double down both hands? I think betting $299 a hand is smarter. Thoughts?
November 23rd, 2016 at 7:41:08 PM
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Quote: SiegfriedRoyAren't you better off betting $299 a hand and if you split, you just choose to not double down, but hitting? That way you're maximizing your amount in play? How many times an hour are you going to get in a situation where when you split you'll have a chance to double down both hands? I think betting $299 a hand is smarter. Thoughts?
It would decrease the percentage of the player's edge slightly, but yes, you would make more per hour doing it that way. You could even bet $199 and DAS once, but not on both hands. It's probably still a better hourly to do as you suggested with the $299 bet.
The difference with DAS v. No DAS and the other rules the same is 0.14428% removed from the player's edge, so:
(299 * 104) * .0156572 = 486.8762912/hour
I know that would be better per hour than the $199 and only one hand doubled, so for simplicity, I'm not going to change the house edge to reflect that you would not DAS twice, given the opportunity, but only once:
(199 * 104) * .0171 = $353.9016/hour
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 23rd, 2016 at 10:33:34 PM
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Are you suggesting this is casino specific? Usually something like this is a programming error and it will appear in all locations. If you're not mistaking then it won't be long now before this is discovered and exploited then fixed. People who's job it is to protect casinos visit this site. You may have just publicly exposed a golden opportunity. OUCH!!!Quote: Blony1789Thanks Wizard for answering my question. Obviously I knew that the "loophole" benifits the player, but no one around these parts were exactly sure just how the math worked out, and more importantly if it helps enough to create positive EV to make it worth it to play in the long-term. The continous shuffle along with the fact that it's electronic blackjack render counting obsolete, so the real question is even if someone were to use perfect basic strategy, could one gain an edge?
To reply to Sabre, I understand your point, but that's why I left out the name and location of the casino. I was asking the question from more of a mathematical perspective. (Although maybe your right I should have been less specific and left out the east coast part) Lol
Perhaps just asking the value of free insurance would've been a better way or asking someone in private and making a deal.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 24th, 2016 at 3:16:48 AM
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Can an admin modify each post in this thread that would reveal information about this play? So that if this is even a thing, it can be exploited by those who've read this (as opposed to no one being able to exploit it once the programming is fixed).
November 24th, 2016 at 12:00:22 PM
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If everyone who said something gives permission, I will do the edits. Preferably send a pm with what.you want edited using quotes.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
November 24th, 2016 at 11:09:18 PM
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Yea the OP must be edited. Ill be sending the admin beachbums a PM as well.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Nov 24, 2016
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
November 25th, 2016 at 2:31:41 PM
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Quote: RSCan an admin modify each post in this thread that would reveal information about this play? So that if this is even a thing, it can be exploited by those who've read this (as opposed to no one being able to exploit it once the programming is fixed).
A casino in Northern Nevada just pulled two machines that had the video poker "Double Up" bug. Those lasted about five years after the bug was public.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 25th, 2016 at 4:28:12 PM
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Quote: DRichA casino in Northern Nevada just pulled two machines that had the video poker "Double Up" bug. Those lasted about five years after the bug was public.
WTF DRICH WHY DIDNT YOU TELL US (me) ABOUT THEM???? :-(
November 25th, 2016 at 7:45:33 PM
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He was playing them.Quote: RSWTF DRICH WHY DIDNT YOU TELL US (me) ABOUT THEM???? :-(
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 25th, 2016 at 8:08:45 PM
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On Long Island there was an eight pump gas station that had one pump with a bug. If you paid cash, you could pull about two dollars extra out of it. Seemed like everyone but the owners know. The workers had to knew. Almost every other pump was credit cards at the pump but this one people waited to use and paid cash. It took Superstorm Sandy to fix it as all the pumps were replaced, guts and all. It amazes me how lax people can be. When you are losing $2 a transaction on about ten percent of your business, something should stand out.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
