100xOdds
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June 14th, 2015 at 11:44:02 AM permalink
Wiz's strategy charts for 4-8 decks:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/4-decks/

is there a different strategy for CSMs?
if so, link to chart?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ibeatyouraces
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June 14th, 2015 at 11:58:36 AM permalink
No change.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
charliepatrick
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June 14th, 2015 at 12:03:37 PM permalink
The strategy charts apply to the first hand in the "shoe" (i.e. starting with every card in all the decks). Technically a slightly different strategy applies if you know what cards have already gone, but we'll assume that's not the question.

When you walk up to a table using a CSM then you have no knowledge of any of the cards just gone, so should adopt the strategy for the number of decks the CSM holds. Again in theory you could adopt a different strategy as cards are dealt and even when they're put back in the machine the next few cards can't be the ones just played. However most the time composition of the cards in the machine closely resemble a fresh shoe.
Bl4ckJ4ck
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June 14th, 2015 at 12:34:19 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Wiz's strategy charts for 4-8 decks:

is there a different strategy for CSMs?
if so, link to chart?





You're not attempting to count a CSM are you?

I only ask because your last thread was a question about using the REKO count with an 8D shoe. If you are then you're wasting your time -- it's impossible to reduce the house edge by counting a game that uses a CSM...

In any case, as Ibeatyouraces and charliepatrick said, the correct BS is just the same BS that you would use if the game did not have a CSM.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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June 14th, 2015 at 7:13:18 PM permalink
Quote: Bl4ckJ4ck

You're not attempting to count a CSM are you?

I only ask because your last thread was a question about using the REKO count with an 8D shoe. If you are then you're wasting your time -- it's impossible to reduce the house edge by counting a game that uses a CSM...

In any case, as Ibeatyouraces and charliepatrick said, the correct BS is just the same BS that you would use if the game did not have a CSM.



nope..not trying to count csm.

csm tables are only $10min, 8deck shoe games are $15 min.

I haven't played blackjack this decade and need to refresh my memory of BS.
thus the $10min bj for a couple of sessions.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ibeatyouraces
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June 14th, 2015 at 7:41:59 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Bl4ckJ4ck

You're not attempting to count a CSM are you?

I only ask because your last thread was a question about using the REKO count with an 8D shoe. If you are then you're wasting your time -- it's impossible to reduce the house edge by counting a game that uses a CSM...

In any case, as Ibeatyouraces and charliepatrick said, the correct BS is just the same BS that you would use if the game did not have a CSM.



nope..not trying to count csm.

csm tables are only $10min, 8deck shoe games are $15 min.

I haven't played blackjack this decade and need to refresh my memory of BS.
thus the $10min bj for a couple of sessions.


The CSM will be 6 decks or less and without a cut card, it's actually a better game for you as long as the playing rules and dealer rules are the same. Just take a minute or two break every 20 minutes or so to simulate shuffle time.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
kewlj
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June 14th, 2015 at 8:30:51 PM permalink
Quote: Bl4ckJ4ck

it's impossible to reduce the house edge by counting a game that uses a CSM...



Disagree with this statement. My partner and I play a CSM game weekly. The main tool we use to flip the edge and gain a little EV is weekly promotional coupons, in the form of free bet coupons and matchplay coupons, but we still try to REDUCE the house edge by counting.

There is usually a buildup of anywhere from half deck to up 3/4 deck and occasionally even up to a full deck before the cards are replaced into the CSM, which can allow for occasional +EV opportunities just from counting. This certainly wouldn't be enough to overcome the house edge on it's own, but you said 'reduce' and that you can do.
Deck007
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June 14th, 2015 at 8:46:54 PM permalink
Really, you are counting against the CSM. What advantage do you have with 6 decks.
Coupons I can understand. But this is nickel and dime thing.
MaxPen
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June 14th, 2015 at 9:11:43 PM permalink
Nickels and dimes add up to dollars. I respect KewlJ for picking up any and all advantages possible.
kewlj
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June 14th, 2015 at 9:37:59 PM permalink
Quote: Deck007

Really, you are counting against the CSM. What advantage do you have with 6 decks.
Coupons I can understand. But this is nickel and dime thing.



It's a small local store. A flat bet of $10 for 45 minutes to an hour with earn you a $25 matchplay and a $25 free bet on a weekly basis. So lets say 40 rounds played in that time, although we go on senior day, so there is a lot of seniors jumping in with their $5 matchplays which slows down the game. (this is the case where slower is better).

So our 40 rounds @ $10 is $400 wagered @ a -.5 house edge or a cost of $2. The EV from the weekly MP and free bet is roughly $25 (half of the $50 face value), so we each net $23 in EV for our 45 minutes of time. My partner actually qualifies for that extra weekly senior MP coupon (worth about $2.30) and you can tack on buck or so EV from the few times we actually gain a little EV or reduce cost, with a positive count.

So we make $50 bucks for 45 minutes from blackjack. That's a little below my normal rate, but there are also some machine play EV to be had at this location, where a small amount of machine play will generate $20-25 cash weekly (they don't do free play), which more than offsets the cost of play (+EV). As a bonus, this amount of play will generate a $10 weekly food credit for each of us. It all adds up my friend. :)
Deck007
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June 14th, 2015 at 11:23:17 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

It's a small local store. A flat bet of $10 for 45 minutes to an hour with earn you a $25 matchplay and a $25 free bet on a weekly basis. So lets say 40 rounds played in that time, although we go on senior day, so there is a lot of seniors jumping in with their $5 matchplays which slows down the game. (this is the case where slower is better).

So our 40 rounds @ $10 is $400 wagered @ a -.5 house edge or a cost of $2. The EV from the weekly MP and free bet is roughly $25 (half of the $50 face value), so we each net $23 in EV for our 45 minutes of time. My partner actually qualifies for that extra weekly senior MP coupon (worth about $2.30) and you can tack on buck or so EV from the few times we actually gain a little EV or reduce cost, with a positive count.

So we make $50 bucks for 45 minutes from blackjack. That's a little below my normal rate, but there are also some machine play EV to be had at this location, where a small amount of machine play will generate $20-25 cash weekly (they don't do free play), which more than offsets the cost of play (+EV). As a bonus, this amount of play will generate a $10 weekly food credit for each of us. It all adds up my friend. :)



My-o-My, you are really a nickel-and-dime man. Even counting with your senior citizen bonus.

Even counting your best case scenario $50 for 2 don't impress me.

First of all 40 rounds per hour is off the chart, way too slow. Stanford Wong give a figure of 60 rounds per hour for a full table and 360 for 1 to1 with dealer.
So the speed of play would average 210, way above your 40. So you are giving back $10.50 each. So your net is $14.50 each. Buy a drink and some $ on transport and do you have any $ left. Not the AP I am hearing.
kewlj
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June 14th, 2015 at 11:43:02 PM permalink
Quote: Deck007

My-o-My, you are really a nickel-and-dime man. Even counting with your senior citizen bonus.

Even counting your best case scenario $50 for 2 don't impress me.

First of all 40 rounds per hour is off the chart, way too slow. Stanford Wong give a figure of 60 rounds per hour for a full table and 360 for 1 to1 with dealer.
So the speed of play would average 210, way above your 40. So you are giving back $10.50 each. So your net is $14.50 each. Buy a drink and some $ on transport and do you have any $ left. Not the AP I am hearing.



Don't tell me how many rounds I am playing. I know EXACTLY how many rounds I play. I track rounds. This is a locals place. Dealers are often older and slower. Patrons are older and slower playing. There are side bets, which slows the game. The minimum wager is $3, which most of the players are playing, meaning the dealer has to change colors when paying my partner and I. (our $10 wagers make us high rollers at this place, our $25 wagers during a high count of when using MP coupon makes us 'whales'...lol) It is very common for the dealer to just stop dealing for 30 seconds to a minute while conversing with the players. And the table is usually crowded. It's an ideal place for milking slow play, when playing for comps and bonuses as we are.

My goal isn't to impress you Deck007. I am a midlevel AP, averaging 90-100k in EV per year from all my AP play, 75-80% from blackjack. My partner average about half that, as he plays much less blackjack. Some places I average over $100 an hour in EV. Others, especially locals places less. This is actually one of our favorite little places. Stopping in for an hour and a half which includes BJ play, machine play and breakfast or lunch, while making a combined $100 in EV is fine with us. I actually look forward to it. :)
Ibeatyouraces
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June 14th, 2015 at 11:48:46 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Don't tell me how many rounds I am playing. I know EXACTLY how many rounds I play. I track rounds. This is a locals place. Dealers are often older and slower. Patrons are older and slower playing. There are side bets, which slows the game. It is very common for the dealer to just stop dealing for 30 seconds to a minute while conversing with the players. It's an ideal place for milking slow play, when playing for comps and bonuses as we are.

My goal isn't to impress you Deck007. I am a midlevel AP, averaging 90-100k in EV per year from all my AP play, 75-80% from blackjack. My partner average about half that, as he plays much less blackjack. Some places I average over $100 an hour in EV. Others, especially locals places less. This is actually one of our favorite little places. Stopping in for an hour and a half which includes BJ play, machine play and breakfast or lunch, while making a combines $100 in EV is fine with us. I actually look forward to it. :)


Well said. For some reason the civilians are stuck on the idea that AP is some extravagant lifestyle and all about making $1000+ bets. Hell, I'm happy making $75-$100 a day for only a couple hours of "work."
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
djatc
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June 15th, 2015 at 12:10:29 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Well said. For some reason the civilians are stuck on the idea that AP is some extravagant lifestyle and all about making $1000+ bets. Hell, I'm happy making $75-$100 a day for only a couple hours of "work."



Yup i agree. I like low-no variance plays that net me money here and there. I am super happy when i can walk into a casino, find a play for $30 or so, and eat lunch for free with the winnings.

Dont get me wrong i like the homerun plays ($10k+ net per partner) but they usually require some bankroll/risk. I just like the idea that i can ap free stuff without busting my wallet open. ROR is something i prefer not to think about unless the reward is worth it.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Deck007
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June 15th, 2015 at 12:15:27 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Don't tell me how many rounds I am playing. I know EXACTLY how many rounds I play. I track rounds. This is a locals place. Dealers are often older and slower. Patrons are older and slower playing. There are side bets, which slows the game. The minimum wager is $3, which most of the players are playing, meaning the dealer has to change colors when paying my partner and I. (our $10 wagers make us high rollers at this place, our $25 wagers during a high count of when using MP coupon makes us 'whales'...lol) It is very common for the dealer to just stop dealing for 30 seconds to a minute while conversing with the players. And the table is usually crowded. It's an ideal place for milking slow play, when playing for comps and bonuses as we are.

My goal isn't to impress you Deck007. I am a midlevel AP, averaging 90-100k in EV per year from all my AP play, 75-80% from blackjack. My partner average about half that, as he plays much less blackjack. Some places I average over $100 an hour in EV. Others, especially locals places less. This is actually one of our favorite little places. Stopping in for an hour and a half which includes BJ play, machine play and breakfast or lunch, while making a combined $100 in EV is fine with us. I actually look forward to it. :)



So who are you.

Someone playing for Comps and Bonuses like you said " It's an ideal place for milking slow play, when playing for comps and bonuses as we are."

Or are you someone who claim to make $100K per year.
You have to make $275 per day, 365 days in the year to do this.
kewlj
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June 15th, 2015 at 12:29:27 AM permalink
Quote: Deck007

So who are you.

Someone playing for Comps and Bonuses
Or are you someone who claim to make $100K per year.



Yes. (to both)

Quote: Deck007


You have to make $275 per day, 365 days in the year to do this.



In my case it's $300+ (in EV), closer 300 days a year. (that's $300+ in EV...average)
Deck007
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June 15th, 2015 at 12:31:59 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Yes. (to both)



Exactly what I expected.

Rich and poor, happy and sad, black and white.
kewlj
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June 15th, 2015 at 12:34:00 AM permalink
Quote: Deck007

Exactly what I expected.

Rich and poor, happy and sad, black and white.



I don't know what your issue or game is. ??? But whatever.
MaxPen
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June 15th, 2015 at 2:06:28 AM permalink
Collecting water in cups from a leaky storage tank
results in a full pitcher without having to make another trip to the well.
Why don't you give us a better way Deck?
Deck007
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June 15th, 2015 at 2:54:33 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Collecting water in cups from a leaky storage tank
results in a full pitcher without having to make another trip to the well.
Why don't you give us a better way Deck?



I do it the same way too except I don't claim to be a $100K AP also.
djatc
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June 15th, 2015 at 3:01:45 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Yes. (to both)



In my case it's $300+ (in EV), closer 300 days a year. (that's $300+ in EV...average)



Heres your problem. Just make $90k in one day betting $9million a hand on a 1% advantage. Or a $90k bet every 3 days. Relax the rest of the year. Thank me by cutting me in on 10% of profits.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Bl4ckJ4ck
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June 15th, 2015 at 6:49:42 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Quote: Bl4ckJ4ck

it's impossible to reduce the house edge by counting a game that uses a CSM...

Disagree with this statement. My partner and I play a CSM game weekly. The main tool we use to flip the edge and gain a little EV is weekly promotional coupons, in the form of free bet coupons and matchplay coupons, but we still try to REDUCE the house edge by counting.

...

It's a small local store. A flat bet of $10 for 45 minutes to an hour with earn you a $25 matchplay and a $25 free bet on a weekly basis. So lets say 40 rounds played in that time, although we go on senior day, so there is a lot of seniors jumping in with their $5 matchplays which slows down the game. (this is the case where slower is better).

So our 40 rounds @ $10 is $400 wagered @ a -.5 house edge or a cost of $2. The EV from the weekly MP and free bet is roughly $25 (half of the $50 face value), so we each net $23 in EV for our 45 minutes of time. My partner actually qualifies for that extra weekly senior MP coupon (worth about $2.30) and you can tack on buck or so EV from the few times we actually gain a little EV or reduce cost, with a positive count.

So we make $50 bucks for 45 minutes from blackjack. That's a little below my normal rate, but there are also some machine play EV to be had at this location, where a small amount of machine play will generate $20-25 cash weekly (they don't do free play), which more than offsets the cost of play (+EV). As a bonus, this amount of play will generate a $10 weekly food credit for each of us. It all adds up my friend. :)



Apparently I need to be more careful with my choice of words. It seems that any time I post anything on any internet forum, someone eventually feels the need to nitpick and debate semantics with me...

Okay, fine, it's not impossible to reduce the house edge by counting against a CSM. I concede that there are occasionally a few counting indicies that can be used in the first hand, and these do indeed technically reduce the house edge. However:

(1) for all practical purposes the house edge is essentially remains the same. Maybe instead of a -0.67% house edge you reduce it to -0.64% by counting in some CSM game scenario. In any case, the average counter is not going to gain any significant edge solely by counting against a CSM. This was the original point I was trying to make. I was just trying to be a nice guy and save somebody from losing money trying to count against a CSM...

(2) you're obtaining positve EV from promotional coupons, not really from reducing the house edge by counting. You would essentially net the amount by playing BS alone. After all, this -0.5% is what you used in your calculation.

P.S. I apologize for venting and hope it doesn't come off as offensive. It's just so frustrating! I haven't even been a part of this forum for one day and people are already picking apart my words. I feel like I just told someone that the sun always rises in the east, and I'm being corrected because technically it occasionally rises a little bit north or south of east!
AxelWolf
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June 15th, 2015 at 7:09:02 AM permalink
Some people like the action and thrill of playing big bets and denominations, they love the risk. They love winning more than they hate losing.

I dislike losing more than I like winning. I really enjoy making money on something that I had a really nice edge on, something I should've won on, rather than just getting lucky. I only like playing higher denominations or bets if the percentage is high. I'm not going to sit and play high limit for $60 an hour in EV. I would much rather play significantly lower denominations and bets for for $45 an hr. If you don't have options then you do what you got to do to gain EV and play higher.

Lets assume you have a option of a $1,000 match play coupon, you can bet it on one hand and your done. Or you can break it up into lower match play coupons for a total of $1,000. I would take the lower broken up match plays, even if it took me an hr or so to play. This is assuming there is no extra exposure to heat. That also might explain why KJ does not play higher, it may be what helps keep him in the game.

If a guy can make a safe comfortable 100k a year VS a very risky uncomfortable 125k a year, I think he's better off going with what he feels comfortable with.

Depending on the situation, low risk, high reward is better than high risk, higher reward in my book.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beachbumbabs
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June 15th, 2015 at 7:40:09 AM permalink
Quote: Bl4ckJ4ck

Quote: kewlj

Disagree with this statement. My partner and I play a CSM game weekly. The main tool we use to flip the edge and gain a little EV is weekly promotional coupons, in the form of free bet coupons and matchplay coupons, but we still try to REDUCE the house edge by counting.

...

It's a small local store. A flat bet of $10 for 45 minutes to an hour with earn you a $25 matchplay and a $25 free bet on a weekly basis. So lets say 40 rounds played in that time, although we go on senior day, so there is a lot of seniors jumping in with their $5 matchplays which slows down the game. (this is the case where slower is better).

So our 40 rounds @ $10 is $400 wagered @ a -.5 house edge or a cost of $2. The EV from the weekly MP and free bet is roughly $25 (half of the $50 face value), so we each net $23 in EV for our 45 minutes of time. My partner actually qualifies for that extra weekly senior MP coupon (worth about $2.30) and you can tack on buck or so EV from the few times we actually gain a little EV or reduce cost, with a positive count.

So we make $50 bucks for 45 minutes from blackjack. That's a little below my normal rate, but there are also some machine play EV to be had at this location, where a small amount of machine play will generate $20-25 cash weekly (they don't do free play), which more than offsets the cost of play (+EV). As a bonus, this amount of play will generate a $10 weekly food credit for each of us. It all adds up my friend. :)



Apparently I need to be more careful with my choice of words. It seems that any time I post anything on any internet forum, someone eventually feels the need to nitpick and debate semantics with me...

Okay, fine, it's not impossible to reduce the house edge by counting against a CSM. I concede that there are occasionally a few counting indicies that can be used in the first hand, and these do indeed technically reduce the house edge. However:

(1) for all practical purposes the house edge is essentially remains the same. Maybe instead of a -0.67% house edge you reduce it to -0.64% by counting in some CSM game scenario. In any case, the average counter is not going to gain any significant edge solely by counting against a CSM. This was the original point I was trying to make. I was just trying to be a nice guy and save somebody from losing money trying to count against a CSM...

(2) you're obtaining positve EV from promotional coupons, not really from reducing the house edge by counting. You would essentially net the amount by playing BS alone. After all, this -0.5% is what you used in your calculation.

P.S. I apologize for venting and hope it doesn't come off as offensive. It's just so frustrating! I haven't even been a part of this forum for one day and people are already picking apart my words. I feel like I just told someone that the sun always rises in the east, and I'm being corrected because technically it occasionally rises a little bit north or south of east!



You are speaking, here, to mostly mathematicians, engineers, pro players, and other folks with various advanced degrees. Pretty much everyone will split hairs with you and argue semantics, because they're very precise people. They will have a 6 page conversation over a thousandth of a percent of EV. If, knowing that, you can move past it, and be as precise as possible in your posts, it's likely they'll get right down in the weeds with you on your question or discussion. If, OTOH, you allow your frustration to overrule your interest in the conversation, they will needle you into oblivion. I'm not excusing what you see as rudeness or nitpicking; it's just how this forum is.

That said, the guys are incredibly helpful and knowledgeable here. You have some of the top game designers and gaming mathematicians (and, I think, some of the top AP's, but I can't verify that) in the world reading your posts. They are not shy about telling you if you're spouting nonsense, but they're also very interested in discussing new information as it comes to light, especially on blackjack. So, you might consider your audience and reframe your discussion with that in mind, and continue. I would encourage you to continue, but of course it's up to you.

I appreciate both your frustration and your apology for expressing it. I don't think you've said anything offensive. Welcome!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Bl4ckJ4ck
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June 15th, 2015 at 8:03:33 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

You are speaking, here, to mostly mathematicians, engineers, pro players, and other folks with various advanced degrees. Pretty much everyone will split hairs with you and argue semantics, because they're very precise people. They will have a 6 page conversation over a thousandth of a percent of EV. If, knowing that, you can move past it, and be as precise as possible in your posts, it's likely they'll get right down in the weeds with you on your question or discussion. If, OTOH, you allow your frustration to overrule your interest in the conversation, they will needle you into oblivion. I'm not excusing what you see as rudeness or nitpicking; it's just how this forum is.

That said, the guys are incredibly helpful and knowledgeable here. You have some of the top game designers and gaming mathematicians (and, I think, some of the top AP's, but I can't verify that) in the world reading your posts. They are not shy about telling you if you're spouting nonsense, but they're also very interested in discussing new information as it comes to light, especially on blackjack. So, you might consider your audience and reframe your discussion with that in mind, and continue. I would encourage you to continue, but of course it's up to you.

I appreciate both your frustration and your apology for expressing it. I don't think you've said anything offensive. Welcome!



Thanks, as a mathematician myself I suppose I'll fit right in then! :-)
charliepatrick
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June 15th, 2015 at 9:38:34 AM permalink
Quote: Bl4ckJ4ck

...it's impossible to reduce the house edge by counting a game that uses a CSM...

When I was thinking about a new game I looked into countability and used Blackjack as my reference. As my idea seemed possibly countable I needed something to tell me "how much" compared (say) with Blackjack.

There is an interesting measure (thanks to teliot) which assumes someone is back-counting (either perfectly or using a count) and makes a $100 bet on any hand where either there is an edge or on the count - the measure then looks at the profit obtained per 100 hands played. His measure also assumes the player adjusts their strategy based on the cards gone. My method was using a HiLo count and just seeing at what level you started to win more than losing. For my game I used EORs to develop a rough count.

Using UK Blackjack rules (and I know it's slightly wrong, but my sim stuck to infinite deck strategy) I found a CSM using 16 cards was only $1.75. While 10% of hands had a player advantage (although half of these were less than .1%), in theory only a range of 1 to 33 would prove profitable.
PenetrationProfit
CSM = 16 cards
$1.75
66%
$18.36
83%
$27.20
However most of this is purely technical (for pure counters this seems a very risky choice, since you'd probably make more leaving the huge sums required in the bank and earning interest). However it does show that on occasions you might spot an opportunity to either increase your bet or slightly change strategy. Thus you can slightly decrease your own expected loss (over playing flat bets and using infinite deck strategy). The following table shows how little can be gained by counting and changing your bet - you are probably best off just enjoying things!
Bet rangeH E
CSM
-0.473%
1 - 2
-0.468%
1 - 5
-0.422%
1-32.4
0%
Note these runs are UK Blackjack based on one 10m shoe simulation.

The summary of all this is, for practical purposes, neither Blackjack nor my game were countable using a CSM with six decks. I suspect other games being designed go through a similar thought process and come up with the same conclusion.
kewlj
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June 15th, 2015 at 10:01:15 AM permalink
Quote: Deck007

I do it the same way too except I don't claim to be a $100K AP also.



Deck007, you have insinuated several different times that you don't believe I am who I say I am. That's fine. That's your right. I like to share my experiences as a mid-level AP/counter when I can and sometimes even when I shouldn't and hope that others can benefit. But I don't intend to prove anything to you. I don't owe that to you. Think whatever makes you comfortable.

I don't know where you are or what levels you play or how much you play or what AP methods you play. But I'll tell you this much....Las Vegas is a very unique place. Many casinos, especially in the subset of local's places make for some unique +EV opportunities in the form of monthly mailers (and other unique situations) because of competition for local players.

There are many AP's, even on this site, that incorporate those +EV, opportunities into their play, even if it isn't their primary AP technique or play. And even if that EV is less than their normal return. It's free money, for a little bit of time, often in places you are visiting anyway.

I understand that you likely don't have these same opportunities, so you aren't familiar and don't understand. Just because you don't understand something doesn't mean it isn't so. You might be better off just to STFU, listen and learn sometimes.
Deck007
Deck007
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June 15th, 2015 at 7:19:59 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Deck007, you have insinuated several different times that you don't believe I am who I say I am. That's fine. That's your right. I like to share my experiences as a mid-level AP/counter when I can and sometimes even when I shouldn't and hope that others can benefit. But I don't intend to prove anything to you. I don't owe that to you. Think whatever makes you comfortable.

I don't know where you are or what levels you play or how much you play or what AP methods you play. But I'll tell you this much....Las Vegas is a very unique place. Many casinos, especially in the subset of local's places make for some unique +EV opportunities in the form of monthly mailers (and other unique situations) because of competition for local players.

There are many AP's, even on this site, that incorporate those +EV, opportunities into their play, even if it isn't their primary AP technique or play. And even if that EV is less than their normal return. It's free money, for a little bit of time, often in places you are visiting anyway.

I understand that you likely don't have these same opportunities, so you aren't familiar and don't understand. Just because you don't understand something doesn't mean it isn't so. You might be better off just to STFU, listen and learn sometimes.



There is some difference in opinion for sure. I hope you take it in good spirit, have no animosity and we can continue with our healthy dialogue.
No I am not an AP as we play with the CSM. Vegas is a good hunting ground for AP as you explain and I believe AP and would be AP is what makes BJ so popular. You have chosen to be a professional AP and I am sure there are many more part-time AP. Nothing wrong with that. In the real world the casinos must be make good money from the players but you would claim they don't make money from you. Just the opposite. Fair enough.

However when tall claims are made, if you can pardon my expression, questions do arise. I am maybe too quick of the mark and vocal but I don't think I am the only one with the questions. Others have made tall claims too and some others hate my questioning. But I believe you live in the land of free speech.

In this last dialogue with you what puzzle me is your life-style seems to be out of quince with your AP status. I don't think it is correct to say I have "insinuated" that I don't believe you. That seems to have a sinister meaning. I am simply questioning what you said. Many types of people are here on this board. Some will believe you. Some would not. I think you have been on this board long enough to accept that.

For us we go back a long way to the BlackjackInfo days. I remember when you first burst on the scene you were hunting for all AP information then. You have come a long way. Good Luck to you and have a nice day.
kewlj
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June 15th, 2015 at 7:55:49 PM permalink
Quote: Deck007



For us we go back a long way to the BlackjackInfo days. I remember when you first burst on the scene you were hunting for all AP information then. You have come a long way. Good Luck to you and have a nice day.



No offense, but I don't remember you from Blackjackinfo days. Same handle? I guess I could go back and look, but Ken has re-formatted the archived message board and I am not even sure how to navigate it.

I am not sure of the meaning of your comment about my lifestyle. If you have known me for that long, you probably know, a lot of things go right over my head. :/ I live a very modest lifestyle. A suburban, very middle-class lifestyle. What of it?

I have come a long way, since I "burst on the scene". I don't know if you meant that as a compliment or probably not, but I am proud of the modest success and career I have carved out. I always say that any moderate success that I have enjoyed has been directly because of the education, I learned from the many members on that early (for me) site. Some of those successful veterans were very generous with sharing there experiences with me, which allowed me to learn and grow. Sometimes they had to argue their points into me. :/

I still communicate and network, privately with a few of those guys. :) And that is why, I am pretty passionate about giving back and sharing some of my experiences, even to the point that it doesn't really benefit me. A couple players have told me, they got into full-time AP play and even moved to Vegas, strictly because of me, which when you think about it, isn't at all beneficial to me. lol.
Deck007
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June 15th, 2015 at 9:32:31 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

No offense, but I don't remember you from Blackjackinfo days. Same handle? I guess I could go back and look, but Ken has re-formatted the archived message board and I am not even sure how to navigate it.

I am not sure of the meaning of your comment about my lifestyle. If you have known me for that long, you probably know, a lot of things go right over my head. :/ I live a very modest lifestyle. A suburban, very middle-class lifestyle. What of it?

I have come a long way, since I "burst on the scene". I don't know if you meant that as a compliment or probably not, but I am proud of the modest success and career I have carved out. I always say that any moderate success that I have enjoyed has been directly because of the education, I learned from the many members on that early (for me) site. Some of those successful veterans were very generous with sharing there experiences with me, which allowed me to learn and grow. Sometimes they had to argue their points into me. :/

I still communicate and network, privately with a few of those guys. :) And that is why, I am pretty passionate about giving back and sharing some of my experiences, even to the point that it doesn't really benefit me. A couple players have told me, they got into full-time AP play and even moved to Vegas, strictly because of me, which when you think about it, isn't at all beneficial to me. lol.



I sign in as johntks then. I remember you had your full name kewlj...... then. How can "have come a long way" not be taken as a compliment.
Not to dig too much into the past. But just curious. There were some report then you have a heart problem and had pass on. Ken did post some comments and later found out that that was not true. Not long after that Ken decided to stop the forum. If you decide not to talk anymore about this I can understand.
cyberbabble
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June 15th, 2015 at 10:10:58 PM permalink
Off topic, I know, but the people that know this stuff are all in here.
Is a Laughlin/Bullhead City resident considered local by Las Vegas?
kewlj
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June 15th, 2015 at 11:27:15 PM permalink
Quote: Deck007

I sign in as johntks then. I remember you had your full name kewlj...... then. How can "have come a long way" not be taken as a compliment.
Not to dig too much into the past. But just curious. There were some report then you have a heart problem and had pass on. Ken did post some comments and later found out that that was not true. Not long after that Ken decided to stop the forum. If you decide not to talk anymore about this I can understand.



Two different incidents, but they occurred within weeks.

Late summer of 2011, I got sick, Endocarditis, which is an infection that comes on very suddenly and eats away the heart valves. By the time you know you are sick, you are in big trouble. I had heart surgery to replace two valves.

The reports of death was an attempt to protect myself after a robbery at gunpoint that occurred outside my condo building just weeks earlier. I suspected the robbery was a result of too much info that I had carelessly posted over time on Ken's site, Blackjackinfo, so I thought reports of my passing would protect me from repeat robberies by the same assailant. Desperate, stupid plan to protect myself. I am not very proud of it. I am not going to go into any more detail. Many in the community know of the incident, as I never ran from it, never changed my name/handle (except shortening my handle, eliminating my actual name).

Some have speculated that incident was at least partly responsible for Ken's decision to close the message board portion of his site, four months later. I have talked to Ken since, and he says that is not so. As a member of that site, you should remember that site was coming apart about that time. Huge feuds, back-stabbings, outing of peoples real names were occurring regularly. One member accused Ken of selling all our personal info to the casino industry. I think Ken just had enough of it all.
Deck007
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June 16th, 2015 at 1:45:36 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Two different incidents, but they occurred within weeks.

Late summer of 2011, I got sick, Endocarditis, which is an infection that comes on very suddenly and eats away the heart valves. By the time you know you are sick, you are in big trouble. I had heart surgery to replace two valves.

The reports of death was an attempt to protect myself after a robbery at gunpoint that occurred outside my condo building just weeks earlier. I suspected the robbery was a result of too much info that I had carelessly posted over time on Ken's site, Blackjackinfo, so I thought reports of my passing would protect me from repeat robberies by the same assailant. Desperate, stupid plan to protect myself. I am not very proud of it. I am not going to go into any more detail. Many in the community know of the incident, as I never ran from it, never changed my name/handle (except shortening my handle, eliminating my actual name).

Some have speculated that incident was at least partly responsible for Ken's decision to close the message board portion of his site, four months later. I have talked to Ken since, and he says that is not so. As a member of that site, you should remember that site was coming apart about that time. Huge feuds, back-stabbings, outing of peoples real names were occurring regularly. One member accused Ken of selling all our personal info to the casino industry. I think Ken just had enough of it all.



I want to thank you very much for being so forthcoming with your personal life on this public board. I did notice this posting was under the word "deleted" but it takes a lot of courage to lay it all out in public.

Indeed as you said there was too much feuds and back stabbings and I myself had stop posting 2 months before closing as I couldn't take it anymore. I think Ken was taken aback by your return. Of course he would say it has nothing to do with your return. But I think the decider for him was the revenue for him from the online casinos was dropping off to a fraction of what it was previously.
And the change in the law that makes the site illegal. As he said the one thing he is not stupid enough to do is to go to jail.

Thanks again and I am better off knowing what really happened.
vendman1
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June 16th, 2015 at 6:20:47 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Nickels and dimes add up to dollars. I respect KewlJ for picking up any and all advantages possible.



Agree with this. I'm not trying to suck up to KewlJ, I only know him from his posts on this forum. But this kind of stuff is what separates the pro AP from recreational players like myself. Yes I want to play with an edge when I can. But I'm not willing to devote the full time and energy it really takes to grind out every opportunity, KewlJ is willing to do that. That's why he's a pro, and I'm not. Good for him.
DavidHasEdge
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June 17th, 2015 at 11:22:19 AM permalink
I've not done this myself but I have read this article that seems to be well supported.


Taken from the article, "Serious card counters will tell you you can’t count a CSM. But the data above shows that a CSM goes +EV more than 8% of the time. "
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