advantage BJ against CSM

So in this casino I saw a group of advantage players playing against 6 deck CSM. I know they are pros because I have seen them card counting and shuffle tracking at other casinos. The BJ rules are very good, maybe only 0.1% house edge. I cannot work out their system. I know they are not card counting as described on discountgambling web site.

Usually two or three person sit at one table but only the first-base-seated player bet and play. I think the extra person is just to lock up the table. They stick to one table during a session, but moves around between days.

He plays ~3 boxes at table minimum 85% of the time. The other 15% of the time he will bet something like small-big-big or small-big-big-big-small. The combined big bet per round is 3k USD plus. He plays basic strategy, no weird stuff. Dealer does not have a hole card.
The casino is medium size, every time they play the shift manager and casino manager will come. And they don't look friendly. The rumor is they win everyday...

Anyone can suggest what I should be watching for?

Quote: supergrass

So in this casino I saw a group of advantage players playing against 6 deck CSM. I know they are pros because I have seen them card counting and shuffle tracking at other casinos. The BJ rules are very good, maybe only 0.1% house edge. I cannot work out their system. I know they are not card counting as described on discountgambling web site.

Usually two or three person sit at one table but only the first-base-seated player bet and play. I think the extra person is just to lock up the table. They stick to one table during a session, but moves around between days.

He plays ~3 boxes at table minimum 85% of the time. The other 15% of the time he will bet something like small-big-big or small-big-big-big-small. The combined big bet per round is 3k USD plus. He plays basic strategy, no weird stuff. Dealer does not have a hole card.
The casino is medium size, every time they play the shift manager and casino manager will come. And they don't look friendly. The rumor is they win everyday...

Anyone can suggest what I should be watching for?

This is just a guess. But I'm sure it's something to do with card clumping. They must have figured out that when the cards are put back in the CSM that the groups or clumps of cards stay pretty close together. Not exactly the same order obviously. But a bunch of high cards probably tend to stay bunched. Again...just a guess. Is this a casino not in the US?...I have a feeling it is not.

Quote: supergrass

Anyone can suggest what I should be watching for?

So you are part of the casino management?

I guess the casino is not in US.

Quote: pokerface

So you are part of the casino management?

I guess the casino is not in US.

Exactly what I was thinking. This guy has way to much information on exactly how they are playing. "What should I be looking for" Forums are reason AP is so dam hard nowadays and why there's so much kess of it. Sure enough someone probably just helped the Casino.

"The rumor is that they win every day" That's exactly what it is a rumor. I can't count how many times I've heard dealers say "that guy always wins" . You have to remember people have selective memory.

With the added information that they are pros what they are doing should be obvious. Can you PM me the casino?

The OP is very unlikely to be management - his description is something anyone watching for ten minutes would pick up on.

See if they are "splitting for less" while back-betting the large bets.

For example, $100 in front, $3000 behind, the hand is dealt 8-8 vs. T. The player who wagered the $100 is in control of the spot. He splits the 8's, placing another $100 bet. House rules, though, allow the $3000 to be placed on the first 8 without needing to be matched on the other 8. The person who wagered $3000 behind gets to turn his hand from a 16 into an 8 for free.

Quote:

Is this a casino not in the US?

no, not in USA

Quote:

So you are part of the casino management?

no, not casino management. I just want to figure out their system so I can do the same.

Quote:

See if they are "splitting for less" while back-betting the large bets.

no, only 1 bet is allowed per box. only 1 person bets and plays; the other 2 person just watch.

Quote:

"The rumor is that they win every day" That's exactly what it is a rumor.

I am not interested because of the rumor. I am interested because they are definitely long time advantage players with history going back several years. And the fact they have enough confidence to place such a big bet.

Quote: supergrass

I just want to figure out their system so I can do the same.

In general, AP against a CSM is tricky.

If you can't figure out what they're doing without (much) outside help, then no, you probably can't do a similar play.

In order for this to be a good play for you, you'd need at least a lot of time (like they're willing to invest) and a fairly healthily sized bankroll (like they're willing to play).

Quote: supergrass

no, not in USA


no, not casino management. I just want to figure out their system so I can do the same.


no, only 1 bet is allowed per box. only 1 person bets and plays; the other 2 person just watch.


I am not interested because of the rumor. I am interested because they are definitely long time advantage players with history going back several years. And the fact they have enough confidence to place such a big bet.

Perhaps make nice with them and see if they might be willing to include you somehow(assuming you have some skill and something to offer, perhaps helping them lock up a seat. Maybe take a small piece of the action at a lower % of the EV.

Obviously don't just bum rush approach them in the casino. Perhaps a few friendly head nods over the course of a week, so they notice you.

Not sure how you noticed something is happening including the fact they are winning every day but the casinos haven't and they let them continue .

PS. I wouldn't mention WOV and what you posted, this thread would be disturbing to say the least. If it was me playing and I found out you were posting up all this information publicly I wouldn't go anywhere near you. You should have sent someone like vendman1, tongni or some other helpful knowable BJers a PM first.

nevermind.

The 'small-big-big or small-big-big-big-small' suggests Ace Tracking (or Ten Tracking)
If it was Otherwise (ie counting related or clump of big cards coming)there is no reason to have the small bet. All of the bets would be big.
Check how often the first card on the Big bet is Ace (and Ten). If it is significantly more often than normal then that's it.

Now how on earth you Ace track a CSM, I have no idea.

Quote: supergrass

So in this casino I saw a group of advantage players playing against 6 deck CSM.

Could you be more precise about the model of the CSM?

Hey Supergrass & guys, new member here.

I had seen this group of guys in my local casino as well and just like the OP said 3 of them will occupied the whole table.

Initially I was just play alone BS with CSM at 4th box and they came. First box will only bet minimum every round. Second box will bet 3 units sometimes. Third box is the big bettor which will max out the bet once in a blue moon.

The first box guy seems to be tracking something because there was once he pointed to the last box, and the big bettor places max bet on my left which at that point I was just thinking to myself "wth are they superstitious or what". But it came a blackjack for them. I know this probably is just luck but it was just kinda amazing. That was the only time I saw them placing bet beside me. The rest of the time the big bettor will just bet on his box, so I don't know if they are trying to fool the pit manager that they are superstitious. The first box guy is the one that seem to be tracking something and the one who signal big bettor to place bet.

Like OP mentioned, when they play, all the managers will come and they are really some VIP. The junket/ambassadors keep standing next to them and entertaining them. I also saw some weird chips they are using which I assume are NN chips/Dead chips.

OP mentioned they are not friendly and it is true. The first box guy will keep finding trouble with the dealer. I don't know if it is an act or he is really just as Axxhole. The dealer was kinda old lady and he got a hand which I can't remember but its like ( 2 , 5 ) and he took out chips and say he wanna split, the dealer looked confused as well as me because he definitely know BS inside out and that hand is not even possible to be spitted. The dealer stared at him and he scold her for staring / being rude and complain to manager and got the dealer changed.

They could take up to 15min to play a hand and in the end I just changed table because I am just a small fish there, all the managers only seem to care about them and don't even care that I was waiting to play next hand.


Edit: forgot to mention they play almost everyday and its like work to them. They seem to start at 9/10am and finish their session at 5/6pm. They play the same table throughout the day.

There was one more incident which was I can't remember max bet was how much but I think was about $5000 per box, and suddenly the guys make a big fuss because they somehow they place bet more then $5k and the casino refused to pay them when they won. The casino insist max bet should only be $5k. They argues that when they lose the casino eat the full amount and now they win casino say max bet is $5k. The first box guy ask to speak to highest rank manager and cause a big stir at the floor. Technically I believe its the dealer's fault for not checking the bet prior to dealing. Maybe this is one of their strategy which I don't know how it works.

This is all kinds of fishy.

If it helps, the house edge is about 0.16%

S17
ES
DOA
DAS
Split Max 4 times
Ace Max split 2 times

CSM is One2Six

Quote: heavenstorm

I had seen this group of guys in my local casino as well and just like the OP said 3 of them will occupied the whole table, etc.

Are the big bettors betting behind? In other words, the guy at first base and his other teammate play 3 to 5 spots, and when the big bettor comes in, he bets behind one of the other bettors, so that it is not his hand to decide strategically?

Quote: teliot

Are the big bettors betting behind? In other words, the guy at first base and his other teammate play 3 to 5 spots, and when the big bettor comes in, he bets behind one of the other bettors, so that it is not his hand to decide strategically?

yes when the big bettor bets, all 3 bet one box. The first guy with 1 unit in front, 2nd guy 3 unit behind and the big bettor max bet at the back.

I did not get the chance to see if splitting opportunity comes, whether the big bettor split as well or only stay in the first hand.

Quote: teliot

Are the big bettors betting behind? In other words, the guy at first base and his other teammate play 3 to 5 spots, and when the big bettor comes in, he bets behind one of the other bettors, so that it is not his hand to decide strategically?

teliot, I'm pretty sure I know exactly what they're doing, as I would imagine you do too. However something is very fishy with the thread and how a new account suddenly claims to be seeing the same group and rehashing the same questions. It smells like casino staff and for the sake of the play alone please don't reveal it.

Did you mean Early Surrender?

There is one casino in the UK ( http://www.thecasinonottingham.co.uk/blackjack/ ) which offers Late Surrender and logically peeks, with a stated house edge of 0.26%. fwiw the standard UK allows unlimited Re-Split incl Aces but no surrender (about .48% HE). Early Surrender would send the game into player's advantage (wizard https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/ says it's worth +.56% more).

There might be a team method whereby you place (for argument's sake) £5 on the front of your box and (say) £5 on the back of someone else's box. They do the same. This means you might split certain pairs (e.g. 7s vs 9) to help the back bet (which only has to pick one of the 7s). I'm guessing if you could put £25 then it might overcome a 0.16% HE.

As to clumping, my local casino uses the One2Six and sometimes it doesn't seem totally random - using the slot mechanism means that adjacent cards have nearly 1/#Slots of being next to each other again (i.e. your card goes into the same slot) and they may be using that info.

of course if you guys know the secret and not willing to expose in the forum that is definitely fine.

However are you guys just going to treat every new member as a casino staff? For me I am a lurking of this forum and I admit I have never contributed anything but because I saw that group playing style about 2 months back which I really find it amazing and then I saw Supergrass mention so I decide to chip in with my experience with them.

I read quite a few threads here and somehow the suspicion of casino staff is always appearing, I don't know how new members are going to prove themselves.

Quote: charliepatrick

Did you mean Early Surrender?

There is one casino in the UK () which offers Late Surrender and logically peeks, with a stated house edge of 0.26%. fwiw the standard UK allows unlimited Re-Split incl Aces but no surrender (about .48% HE). Early Surrender would send the game into player's advantage (wizardsays it's worth +.56% more).

There might be a team method whereby you place (for argument's sake) £5 on the front of your box and (say) £5 on the back of someone else's box. They do the same. This means you might split certain pairs (e.g. 7s vs 9) to help the back bet (which only has to pick one of the 7s). I'm guessing if you could put £25 then it might overcome a 0.16% HE.

As to clumping, my local casino uses the One2Six and sometimes it doesn't seem totally random - using the slot mechanism means that adjacent cards have nearly 1/#Slots of being next to each other again (i.e. your card goes into the same slot) and they may be using that info.

Yes early surrender and no hole card
If dealer BJ only loses the original bet (if split or double)

Their bet amount is in this order ($100 table)
$100
$300
$5000

Quote: heavenstorm

Yes early surrender...

It would be interesting why the casino thinks the game has a house edge of 0.16% (ignoring the peek rule) I get it to Player advantage of .17% for a 6-deck shoe.

Quote: charliepatrick

It would be interesting why the casino thinks the game has a house edge of 0.16% (ignoring the peek rule)

This is not true ES -- it is ES-10, you can surrender on a dealer up-card of a T, J, Q, K but not an Ace. The player does not have an edge off the top.

Also, the OP expressed the split rules in an unclear fashion. I think the rules are that you can split Aces once, you can't hit split Aces, and you can split all others 3 times (split to 4 hands). Please double check the "Ace splitting" rules.

I get a house edge of -0.1667% with the "original and busted bets" rule for dealer blackjacks.

The game with these rules is common in Asia.

Quote: teliot

This is not true ES -- it is ES-10, you can surrender on a dealer up-card of a T, J, Q, K but not an Ace. The player does not have an edge off the top.

Teliot is right ES10, can't surrender on Ace, my bad for missing out on the detail

Thanks for everyone's updates - my quick sim (using UK no peek but allowing more splits) gets .25% and subtracting the wizard's 0.08% difference would get the same figure.

They might play like I play. The dealers shake their heads, the Pit watches closely at times.
The other players to nuts when I win big bets.
They forget when I lose big bets, feel sorry for me momentarily.
Then I win the next big bet, looks like I'm on fire.
But all I did was break even, before tips.
I like CSM. CSM likes me.
CSM often beats me.

I believe there could be edge sorting (playing the turn) involved. If it is a brushless shoe and third base is up and down looking at the cards or if the table is locked up, this could be occurring. Also, some kind of hole card reading could be taking place by virtue of reading the edge of the upcoming card even though it is not a true hole card as yet. They could be intimidating the dealer to see the next card by saying they did not want it and refuse it in certain cases and the lady would have to give it to the next player, or herself if it is not wanted and not burned. CSM's keep the cards rolling for at least an entire shift and possibly a whole gaming day. If anamolies exist on the backs, then they could be read in certain key spots. One such read and a max bet would make the rest of the session irrelevant as far as EV.

Quote: heavenstorm

Teliot is right ES10, can't surrender on Ace, my bad for missing out on the detail

For the record: We NEVER say "Teliot is right". Many of us just don't embrace that philosophy. The best we can do is say Teliot is not wrong....in this particular instance. :)

Quote: kewlj

For the record: We NEVER say "Teliot is right".

I appreciate your humor, but we is wrong about this 8-)

Where does the group come from?

I might be late to party but anyone knows what the team was doing? this is what i was trying to figure out for last couple of day out of intellectual curiosity

https://mothership.sg/2023/06/malaysia-record-mbs-casino/

Ask Marina Bay Sands in Singapore! They must be experts by now!

Hi,

If you are interested to know more, you can private message me.

Quote: Bjkai21

Hi,

If you are interested to know more, you can private message me.
link to original post

listen, bro, no one is interested and if they are ill make sure you don't succeed in reeling them into a lifetime of deception and depression

I am referring to advantage play against CSM. Not those people.

Quote: Bjkai21

I am referring to advantage play against CSM. Not those people.
link to original post

same thing