REALLY easy shuffle track technique

Hi all,
I figured I'd post on a technique I've found to be quite lucrative and not difficult to learn. Many APs who use HiLo are aware of shuffle tracking (ST) but find that it's very tricky, cumbersome, and takes a long time to learn. The truth is that you need an extraordinary level of visual acuity in order to really reap big benefits. However, there are two scenarios where you can confidently cut the card after a shuffle in such a way that you gain an advantage.

Don't we all hate those shoes where the count dives to the negative double digits in the first deck or two? Like to wong out in those situations? Well, not anymore. That high-valued slug sits in the bottom of the discard tray. Most times, it does not get disrupted by the dealer when he puts the (unplayed) end of the shoe into the tray to prepare the shuffle. The standard American shuffle (Vegas, East-coast casinos as well) consists of two passes, the first of which alternates between two piles to build a third, and the second of which is a standard riffle. The result of this shuffle is that the now somewhat diluted slug sits in the BOTTOM 2-2.5 DECKS of the new shoe, which you can conveniently cut up to the front and open at a two or three-unit bet. More if you have any information about aces (ie, was there an unusual concentration of aces at the start of the previous shoe?). And wait, the coolest part is: if it turned out well, the high-value cards are discarded early, and they end up -- again -- at the bottom of the discard tray. Rinse and repeat!! Yes, the shuffle will dilute the slug each round, but you can usually get two or three shoes. Oh - and you know what doesn't look like counter behavior? Betting more than one unit on the first hand of a shoe.

The second scenario is when you know that bottom slug has a lot of low cards. Using the same logic, you cut as little as possible from the top of the shoe so as to keep all the small cards at the bottom. Again, your opening bet can be more than one unit.

Note - as is always the case in stochastic and probabilistic systems, this won't work every time. It just happens more often than not. And as for gauging success -- it's not about whether you win the hands at the start of the next shoe, but about the short-term concentration of high-valued cards.

An anecdote: I once experienced a very bizarre shoe during which over ten aces showed up in about a half-deck near the start of a new shoe (it wasn't the very start, but close enough). I made the cut as explained above, and the start of the next round was happily ace-heavy. Some BJs, including dealer BJs, but remember that you don't need a BJ for an ace to be worth a lot. It took two more shoes for those aces to dilute out completely, and I netted the equivalent of eight max bets. Each time, my opening bet was 3 units, which I kept pressing (even through a negative count) until about two or three decks played out; then I dropped to one unit.

It's not always as easy as it sounds and errors can be costly. This will depend on the shuffle and even the dealer, some of which are lazy.

How about a shuffle where the leftover cards are made into four piles and randomly inserted into the discards prior to shuffling?

In theory, ST is easy. It really is an easy concept to grasp. Unfortunately, it isn't as easy in real life. It takes lots of work and practice [and of course, a decent shuffle] to be able to do it competently. I think all good card counters should at least learn or try to learn how to ST, but isn't for everyone.


In Snyder's cookbook, he has a quote that reads something like:

Quote:

Cut the shoe to card #128. You hit card #133? You're getting there, but not good enough. Keep practicing. Now cut to card #66. You hit #63? Nice try, but you need more practice. Until you can consistently cut within 2-3 cards of your desired location, keep your job at McDonald's.

Quote: 1BB

It's not always as easy as it sounds and errors can be costly. This will depend on the shuffle and even the dealer, some of which are lazy.

How about a shuffle where the leftover cards are made into four piles and randomly inserted into the discards prior to shuffling?

This is frequently done and if one of those discard piles is placed in the middle of the slug you're following, then you're out of luck. The advantage with the very bottom deck, maybe deck-and-a-half in the discard tray is that it does not get split up by one of the leftover piles, and the high-count slug remains intact.

Dealers' sloppiness is an extremely valuable trait to observe. Some simple put the the leftover cards all on top of the discard tray without splitting them up -- that's enormously valuable if you know the TC of that last slug. However, it's uncommon for dealers not to split up leftover cards.

Sigh.....I would like to respectfully ask that we avoid discussing shuffle specifics, or specific parts of a shuffle that may be exploitable on an open forum. Thank you.

Quote: mcallister3200

Sigh.....I would like to respectfully ask that we avoid discussing shuffle specifics, or specific parts of a shuffle that may be exploitable on an open forum. Thank you.

While I am seldom a proponent of security through obscurity, I agree that this is a particular area that discussion should be limited to hypothetical generalities.

Quote: mcallister3200

Sigh.....I would like to respectfully ask that we avoid discussing shuffle specifics, or specific parts of a shuffle that may be exploitable on an open forum. Thank you.

I disagree; disclosing which casinos have weak shuffles is definitely a faux pas, but I don't see any problem with discussing technique.

The worst that could happen is that a smart casino employee comes here and says "hey, we're using that weak shuffle!"

But, IMO, any casino employee that smart has already read the literature on shuffle tracking that is out there.

The concept is easy, the hard part is mastering it (as that quote from Snyder demonstrates) finding the weak shuffles. Personally I don't see any problem with discussing the concept and the construction of a weak shuffle.

But, I don't make any money from shuffle tracking. So take my opinion with a grain of salt I suppose.

I'm on a double edged sword. I know about shuffle tracking, tried it very briefly in the privacy of my own home, but ultimately determined it wasn't worth it because only one shop that's 'barely' within driving distance of me (which I visit once or twice a year) hand shuffles. So now for my two sides:

Side For Sharing
This is mostly for educational purposes, as I enjoy learning anything I can about AP play, even if it's not available to me, dated, etc, etc. I'm not saying it's entirely dated, but it is becoming more of a thing of the past (from my experiences / what I've heard through the grape vine). I would love to learn the actual techniques that don't involve "dealer shuffles like Z (had a shuffle technique but removed just in case), if the slug was at position X, it should mathematically be at position Y now."

Perhaps someone could PM me some good shuffle tracking information, or a link to said information? After all, if we don't want it posted here then I would presume putting a link to it on here would also be a no no =p. Yes, I use the powers of the Google all the time, but I was curious what someone who's actually skilled at shuffle tracking would say/recommend.

Side Against Sharing
While possibly a dying art, I believe people still make money/possibly a living from this technique. If I were in their position, I would absolutely not share techniques on an open forum. Even if we take the "worst that could happen" above, even if that doesn't directly affect someone right now, perhaps down the road it will take an opportunity away from an AP that would have been there had we not shared.

So I guess overall I won't share the very little I've studied about the art, and hope that someone will point me at very credible information/sources via PM =).

There are at least 25 pages on the internet pertaining to shuffle tracking and nothing has been left out. Every blackjack forum discusses it at length. A couple of our members have published articles on it.

Arnold Snyder's article is over 20 years old and his Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook has been out over 10 years. Norm has software called CVShuffler.

I'm not sure what the concern is other than outing a casino's weak shuffle. If it's that, then yes, I would be very concerned. Just talking in general shouldn't cause undue worry.

Quote: 1BB

I'm not sure what the concern is other than outing a casino's weak shuffle. If it's that, then yes, I would be very concerned. Just talking in general shouldn't cause undue worry.

We shouldn't mention that Joanna* at Michaelangelo's Platinum Ingot* who can often be found Tue-Sat* on Table 37* on Graves* clumps the bottom third of each break.

We shouldn't discuss a 38 deep cut* following a 5 break dilution shuffle* followed by a 7 break double R&R* following a tail-hot* shoe is almost always a sure thing for the first 8 hands.

No objections to general discussion. It's fascinating.



*Fabricated details. Really.

Quote: Dieter

We shouldn't mention that Joanna* at Michaelangelo's Platinum Ingot* who can often be found Tue-Sat* on Table 37* on Graves* clumps the bottom third of each break.

We shouldn't discuss a 38 deep cut* following a 5 break dilution shuffle* followed by a 7 break double R&R* following a tail-hot* shoe is almost always a sure thing for the first 8 hands.

No objections to general discussion. It's fascinating.



*Fabricated details. Really.

Darn, if only I had tipped Joanna. :-)

Nothing good can come of openly discussing ST. Any public info positive or negative only serves to educate the casinos and may result in countermeasures. If you want to learn ST then there is PM. Curiosity is not a good enough reason to risk jeopardizing someone else's good game.

totally agreed w Abe Frohman . You may not be hurt by this post ,other could be . then there are others that are hurt by these posts for sure!. Put yourself in their shoes ! How do you feel now ? Careless and selfish acts. there are many other techniques and weakness and a whole bunch of other games we should just analyze it in HD DETAIL! How does one feel if another wonger wong into your game blatantly ? A dealer calling your out loud that you are counting cards? A ploppy call out your acceptance of dealer misplay.

I think "careless and selfish acts" is a little harsh. Again, this information has been out there for decades. We now have three different posters objecting to the discussion of this subject.

Guys, is there something specific in this thread that you find too sensitive for public discussion? Anything at all that could out a player or cause loss of income? Is there a casino on the planet that hasn't heard of shuffle tracking?

On that note, if I ever inadvertently post something sensitive please feel free to point it out. I will happily edit the information with no hard feelings.

There hasn't been anything damaging posted except for perhaps giving the dangerous impression that it's easy to track a "two pass crap shuffle." I was concerned about the direction I saw it potentially going as it veered off into countermeasures. Paraphrasing a comment I liked recently on another forum, if there's the potential for someone to out something or post something sensitive, some idiot will whether they intend to or not.

Quote: mcallister3200

There hasn't been anything damaging posted except for perhaps giving the dangerous impression that it's easy to track a "two pass crap shuffle."

Exactly. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - just like everything else. Don't overbet your bankroll, enjoy it when the cards fall favorably.