is blackjack still profitable for casinos?

I feel like card counters are everywhere nowadays and all over the Internet I see people talking about counting cards. Even the not serious gambler is a card counter. Why is blackjack even offered as a game anymore? Are there really enough ploppes to make it still profitable?

Card counters are actually good for business. For every 1 card counter that will count accurately enough, spread big enough (which many don't) and be properly bankrolled, there are hundreds that don't meet these condition, which means they most likely are still playing a losing game.

I have a good friend who works the pit of one of the strip casinos who claims that just after the books about the MIT team came out and again just after the movie came out, blackjack revenues jumped as underfunded, unprepared counters hit the tables. It was way before my time, but I have heard similar statements about the time just after 'Beat the Dealer' was published in the 60's.

Quote: Bondy3

I feel like card counters are everywhere nowadays and all over the Internet I see people talking about counting cards. Even the not serious gambler is a card counter. Why is blackjack even offered as a game anymore? Are there really enough ploppes to make it still profitable?

You've never played blackjack in a casino. Go play for 1000 hours and report back how many "counters" you've seen.

Quote: Bondy3

I feel like card counters are everywhere nowadays and all over the Internet I see people talking about counting cards. Even the not serious gambler is a card counter. Why is blackjack even offered as a game anymore? Are there really enough ploppes to make it still profitable?

I can assure you that hardly anyone is a card counter. Over the last year I have made a dozen weekend trips to various casinos. I guess I have put in a couple hundred hours either watching blackjack or playing blackjack. I have not encountered a single person who can count cards competently. Let me repeat, in the couple hundred hours I have played, there hasn't been ONE card counter that I have come across. Now this could mean a few different things:

1. All the card counters are in Vegas (I haven't played there yet)
2. All the card counters at the casinos I go to have really good cover
3. It's just dumb luck that I haven't stumbled across any other card counters

But if I had to bet money on it, I would say there just aren't that many card counters. How do I know? Because most people don't know basic strategy (and they sure aren't following I18), nobody is betting with the count, people are leaving in extremely high counts, etc.

But I'll tell you what, there are plenty of people who THINK they can beat blackjack. And that's exactly what the casino wants. If the casinos wanted to, they would switch out all of the shoes for shufflers. But they keep them because the players like to know that the game can be beaten. I said I have never encountered someone who can count competently, but I never said I haven't come across a few wannabe card counters. At the end of the day, people are are at the casino to gamble, not to think.

Quote: kewlj

Card counters are actually good for business. For every 1 card counter that will count accurately enough, spread big enough (which many don't) and be properly bankrolled, there are hundreds that don't meet these condition, which means they most likely are still playing a losing game.

How is not being properly bankrolled a criterum for the house ? They bleed on every hand when a card counter makes a +EV bets, bankrolled or not.

Quote: Avincow

ILet me repeat, in the couple hundred hours I have played, there hasn't been ONE card counter that I have come across. Now this could mean a few different things:

1. All the card counters are in Vegas (I haven't played there yet)
2. All the card counters at the casinos I go to have really good cover
3. It's just dumb luck that I haven't stumbled across any other card counters

How about
4. The counter only play the better games. Meaning you play the worser games.

Quote: Avincow

I can assure you that hardly anyone is a card counter. Over the last year I have made a dozen weekend trips to various casinos. I guess I have put in a couple hundred hours either watching blackjack or playing blackjack. I have not encountered a single person who can count cards competently. Let me repeat, in the couple hundred hours I have played, there hasn't been ONE card counter that I have come across. Now this could mean a few different things:

1. All the card counters are in Vegas (I haven't played there yet)
2. All the card counters at the casinos I go to have really good cover
3. It's just dumb luck that I haven't stumbled across any other card counters

But if I had to bet money on it, I would say there just aren't that many card counters. How do I know? Because most people don't know basic strategy (and they sure aren't following I18), nobody is betting with the count, people are leaving in extremely high counts, etc.

But I'll tell you what, there are plenty of people who THINK they can beat blackjack. And that's exactly what the casino wants. If the casinos wanted to, they would switch out all of the shoes for shufflers. But they keep them because the players like to know that the game can be beaten. I said I have never encountered someone who can count competently, but I never said I haven't come across a few wannabe card counters. At the end of the day, people are are at the casino to gamble, not to think.

People give up for many reasons, but usually it's because when they start they have a vision in there head that plays out like a movie.

Even people who don't have movie visions in their head haven't any clue what they are in for. They believe the math will work out like it does on paper and simulations, if only they do everything according to whatever information they have gathered. They don't understand how hard it is for small percentages to show up (if ever). The swings eventually take their toll. They get discouraged when they don't see a profit weekly.

Oftentimes when people start off with a bang, they are encouraged but then they start getting backed off.

Quote: MangoJ

How about
4. The counter only play the better games. Meaning you play the worser games.

I've played good and bad games. More recently, good games

I actually took a vacation from blackjack for 3 1/2 years. The negative runs, making next to nothing on several trips in a row, losing big, etc. Yeah, movies always make it look like a gravy train. You learn to count, and on your first trip to Vegas you're comped in a suite at Caesars. Wasn't there a scene in Rainman where Dustin Hoffman recited what the next card would be? Tom, tell your brother to give you a very subtle signal to hit, don't CALL OUT THE CARD!

When I talk to someone who says they know basic strategy I like to ask them, "When do you split 9s?" This is a great question because the answer is the same whether you DAS, play SD or 8D. Admittedly, I haven't had the opportunity to ask this question much. But when I do I always get a reply that requires reflection and deep thought. Never once heard 2-9 except 7. *(I just love the except 7 part).


*unless the TC is +3 or greater DAS or +6 NDAS

Now come on, how many people what to learn all this stuff for a 1% advantage over the casino?

I do.

Quote: Bondy3

I feel like card counters are everywhere nowadays and all over the Internet I see people talking about counting cards. Even the not serious gambler is a card counter. Why is blackjack even offered as a game anymore? Are there really enough ploppes to make it still profitable?

Yes, it is easy to learn how to count cards. But it does not mean you can win. The edge is paper thin. Sometimes, people fool themselves that they have an edge but they don't. They are going to lose due to the several main factors:

1) Improper bankroll and overbeting.
2) Poor game selection (Poor penetration and poor rules)
3) Make basic strategy mistakes or make mistakes in the count because they want to use fancy counting system.
4) On tilt. After the negative swing, they start to gamble like plopplies.

Some of them think that they can always win like in the movie, 21. They just don't understand how the Expect Value (EV) work. I am not saying that you need to be a math professor to count cards but you at least need to know the basic math behind it and believe in the math.

I was thinking about this earlier today: If there were a bunch of under-rolled competent card counters, would they (as a whole) make a profit (even if over betting their personal BR)? Not talking about a bunch of CC pooling a BR and teaming up. Or are there other factors not yet considered? Does it matter if they have a 25% ROR vs 75% ROR?

way more streak counters than card counters so the house is safe

Quote: RS

If there were a bunch of under-rolled competent card counters, would they (as a whole) make a profit (even if over betting their personal BR)?
Does it matter if they have a 25% ROR vs 75% ROR?

If they're competent, they won't be overbetting. They'll be playing $5-$15 and wonging out. Then, they'll go home.

The house will make more than enough to cover it when the count climbs, some kid pulls out all his money, and the dealer shows an ace up.

I just finished about ten 90 min sessions at the EL Cortez single deck this past week.
I only played with 1 obvious card counter.
I was able to play alone about 1/2 the time so I didn't play with a lot of people.
My overall impression is that most don't count. Saw a lot of flat betting.
A lot of tourist players stop by there and don't play proper strategy.
Saw 10's split recently. Dealer joked about it after they left.
Same dealer noticed I was counting but I had a light spread.
Was raising my 5 to 15 on a good count and losing.
Dealer remarked, "can still lose even with good cards left"

Nothing like losing several max bets to keep you grounded and humble.

Quote: terapined

I just finished about ten 90 min sessions at the EL Cortez single deck this past week.
I only played with 1 obvious card counter.
I was able to play alone about 1/2 the time so I didn't play with a lot of people.
My overall impression is that most don't count. Saw a lot of flat betting.
A lot of tourist players stop by there and don't play proper strategy.
Saw 10's split recently. Dealer joked about it after they left.
Same dealer noticed I was counting but I had a light spread.
Was raising my 5 to 15 on a good count and losing.
Dealer remarked, "can still lose even with good cards left"

Yikes I don't remember a dealer ever saying anything to me regarding the count or insinuating anything to me about counting.

One guy mentioned something to a friend of mine but he was a part time counter and was encouraging it.

You might want to have someone watch you counting and see what your doing.

State of Nevada, State Gaming Control Board, Gaming Revenue Report,
Twelve Month Summary 12/01/13 to 11/30/14 (page #4):

Games and Tables:
Twenty-One
Total casino win: $1,058,661,000 (column 13, pg. 4)
Casino win percent: 11.99% (column 15, pg. 4)
(Total of all "nonrestricted" licensee locations, rounded to thousands)

NGCB Revenue Report 11/30/14 (pdf file)

Index to NGCB gaming revenue reports

Quote: AxelWolf

Yikes I don't remember a dealer ever saying anything to me regarding the count or insinuating anything to me about counting.

One guy mentioned something to a friend of mine but he was a part time counter and was encouraging it.

You might want to have someone watch you counting and see what your doing.

She was an unusual dealer at the El Cortez.
Just about all the dealers there are from China and are very quiet while dealing.
This dealer was American girl, probably late 20's , long black straight hair, big chest and quite talkative.
She even mentioned when I doubled down soft 17 against a 3 that I was making the right strategy move, multiple decks you hit.
I play with the printed wiz's strategy 1 deck sheet :-)

Quote: terapined

She was an unusual dealer at the El Cortez.
Just about all the dealers there are from China and are very quiet while dealing.
This dealer was American girl, probably late 20's , long black straight hair, big chest and quite talkative.
She even mentioned when I doubled down soft 17 against a 3 that I was making the right strategy move, multiple decks you hit.
I play with the printed wiz's strategy 1 deck sheet :-)

That's why you should never listen to the dealers, even the big chested ones. Look but don't listen. She was wrong about the multiple decks.

Quote: 1BB

That's why you should never listen to the dealers, even the big chested ones. Look but don't listen. She was wrong about the multiple decks.

My Wiz chart , 1 deck dealer hits soft 17
Dealer has 3, wiz chart says to double down soft 17
My small strategy card I bought, which I assume is for multiple decks, says to hit.

No cleavage with those uniforms but you could tell she was chesty by the way she filled out the uniform :-)

Double is the correct move in multiple deck.

Quote: terapined

She was an unusual dealer at the El Cortez.
She even mentioned when I doubled down soft 17 against a 3 that I was making the right strategy move, multiple decks you hit.
I play with the printed wiz's strategy 1 deck sheet :-)

The two differences I have between multiple (i.e. 3 or more) and 1-2 decks are:
Hard 16 vs Dealer 10 - stand with 1-2 decks, hit with 3+
Soft 13 vs Dealer 5 - double with 1-2 decks, hit with 3+
I have "always double" with soft 17 vs Dealer 3

Quote: terapined

I play with the printed wiz's strategy 1 deck sheet :-)

Mystery solved.

Soft 17 vs 3, double if -2 or greater... So double.

Doubling soft 17 vs 2 is a closer call. That IS hit on multiple decks ( but once again, very close decision).

Quote: RS

I was thinking about this earlier today: If there were a bunch of under-rolled competent card counters, would they (as a whole) make a profit (even if over betting their personal BR)? Not talking about a bunch of CC pooling a BR and teaming up. Or are there other factors not yet considered? Does it matter if they have a 25% ROR vs 75% ROR?

As a population, it shouldn't matter, as long as it's a large enough group to smooth out variance. Same way the house has the advantage over the pool of all players... the total bankroll of everyone who visits the casino in LV is bigger than the casino's bank roll.

Quote: Bondy3

I feel like card counters are everywhere nowadays and all over the Internet I see people talking about counting cards. Even the not serious gambler is a card counter. Why is blackjack even offered as a game anymore? Are there really enough ploppes to make it still profitable?

I don't pay close attention to how others play their cards and how they bet, but I agree with the general consensus here. Just from what little I pay attention to others I notice way too many major violations of Basic Strategy to believe that there are a lot of skilled counters out there. I don't even think there are a lot of skilled Basic Strategy players out there when it comes to the nuances of the game like proper splitting and doubling.

And as for myself, I fall into the skilled but underfunded crowd. I really don't play that much because we all know that BJ is a volatile game and I don't have the bankroll to sustain for the long term if I were to have any bad luck on the front end. Plus, I would probably get backed off everywhere before long anyway. I have aleady been backed off once at a casino on my home turf. So I basically just play for fun here and there.... but play a skilled game when I do.

And it definitely looks like a trip to the El Cortez is in order when I go to Vegas again in March. All I know about the place is that it has 3/2 single deck and at least one 20-something dealer with big tits. Sounds like a pretty good place to me. ;)