Match the Dealer - Increasing Ossa with Multiple Hands
Think of it in terms of roulette. if you cover more of the board with chips, chances are higher that one of them will win. But that won't cover the loss, and the expected value (sum of each outcome's probability of occurring multiplied by your bet) remains constant. (and it's negative)
http://netiquette.wikia.com/wiki/Rule_number_2_-_Do_not_use_all_caps
The basic thing I see is that YES, you might win one of the sidebets on one of the hands, but you'll lose the other two sidebets.
EV is still additive.
To OP, you would have to bet another MTB for each additional hand, keeping your EV the same as if you stayed at a single hand.
So, I understand the roulette analogy, but this is very different - you get paid 11:1 on single perfect match (2 of hearts matching 2 of hearts), and 4 to 1 for simple match (2clubs matching 2 hearts). There is a 15 percent chance you will match one hand. Does that mean if you play 2 hands, you have a 30 percent chance?
See payouts below:
Match the Dealer - Blackjack - Six Decks
EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN
Two suited matches 22 10 0.000207 0.004564
One suited and one non-suited match 15 90 0.001867 0.028005
One suited match 11 1440 0.029872 0.328597
Two non-suited matches 8 153 0.003174 0.025392
One non-suited matches 4 5184 0.107541 0.430163
No matches -1 41328 0.857338 -0.857338
Total 48205 1 -0.040618
What I really would like to know is the actual formula if playing 3 hands. The above is for only one.
If all you care about is winning the bet, without the effect on your total bankroll, then yes, 2 hands on any sidebet gives you twice the chance of winning on any particular hand. But you're spending twice as much to do it, and the -ev adds up over time. Certainly it increases your entertainment value to win more often; but it doesn't increase your chances of coming out ahead at the end. Your exposure is the same per hand (assuming you're betting the same amount on each hand). If you bet twice as much on 1 hand, your winnings, when you receive them, are doubled. Betting 2 hands gets you only 1/2 as much when you win, but you'll win roughly twice as often.
Quote: elfman3Does that mean if you play 2 hands, you have a 30 percent chance?
No. Do you think that if you play 10 hands you have a 150% chance?
Quote: elfman3That's true, but playing 2 hands means you now have 4 chances to match and the payout is not 2:1, it could be 22:1, 11:1, 8:1, 4:1 or nothing.
I don't see where you get 22:1 from.
If your payout chances are 11:1, 4:1, or 0 for 1 and you're placing two bets, your payout chances are now 22:2, 11:2, 8:2, 4:2, or 0 for 2.
By playing more hands, you can lose more quickly.
Quote: Paradigm22-1 assumes a perfect match with both player cards (e.g. Player is dealt 5H/5H and dealers up card is also 5H). You would get paid two 11-1 payouts on this hand or 22-1.
You must be psychic! I had that very hand two days ago, 5 of hearts and all. Of course I wasn't playing the side bet and I couldn't even win the darn double. Guess I should have split. :-) I only remember the hand because of the unusual amount of flak I got for not playing it.
How do you explain to the dealer and the other player, who are both chiding you, that this is not a good side bet? You don't. You just sit there and look clueless.
Quote: 1BBHow do you explain to the dealer and the other player, who are both chiding you, that this is not a good side bet? You don't. You just sit there and look clueless.
I always moan and say, "I was going to play it this time too!" This after claiming [if earlier chiding took place] that I feel the key is to play on a hunch, then never seem to have a hunch. At least it's using language all have in common.
Quote: Paradigm22-1 assumes a perfect match with both player cards (e.g. Player is dealt 5H/5H and dealers up card is also 5H). You would get paid two 11-1 payouts on this hand or 22-1.
edit: never mind. coffee hasn't kicked in yet.
Quote: elfman3There is a 15 percent chance you will match one hand. Does that mean if you play 2 hands, you have a 30 percent chance?
Not quite. There is an 85% chance of not matching, so the probability of not matching two would be about (0.85)2 = 72.25%, so you have a 27.75% chance of matching at least one. However, when you don't match either, you lose 2, and when you match just one, the total return is 1 less than what it would be for a single bet because you lose the 1 you bet on the non-matching hand.
Quote: 1BBHow do you explain to the dealer and the other player, who are both chiding you, that this is not a good side bet? You don't. You just sit there and look clueless.
It isn't a disaster of a side bet at about 4.02% HE. Of course the last place I saw it (Florida), the perfect match paid only 10-1 which jumps the HE up to 7% range....that is a disaster!
I have normally said that if a side bet offers a reasonable multi unit pay, has an HE less than Roulette, doesn't have a top loaded RTP pay table (e.g. without the one in 300 hands event hitting, you are playing against a 13% HE!) and has a reasonable hit rate (high teens to low 20%'s), I'll give it some action and see how it goes.
But gambling is a recreational event for me and I expect to lose my bankroll......I just want to be entertained as it happens :-).
Quote: elfman3What I really would like to know is the actual formula if playing 3 hands.
Wish granted:
| Pays | Ways | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 1620 | 0.000000000015035 | 0.0000000008870864232 |
| 55 | 25920 | 0.000000000240566 | 0.00000001323111953 |
| 52 | 68850 | 0.000000000639003 | 0.00000003322815246 |
| 48 | 2332800 | 0.000000021650923 | 0.000001039244298 |
| 45 | 734400 | 0.000000006816031 | 0.0000003067214073 |
| 44 | 14878080 | 0.000000138084775 | 0.000006075730089 |
| 43 | 3719520 | 0.000000034521194 | 0.000001484411329 |
| 41 | 39657600 | 0.000000368065689 | 0.00001509069324 |
| 38 | 2754000 | 0.000000025560117 | 0.0000009712844566 |
| 37 | 535610880 | 0.000004971051891 | 0.00018392892 |
| 36 | 133902720 | 0.000001242762973 | 0.00004473946702 |
| 34 | 211507200 | 0.000001963017007 | 0.00006674257824 |
| 33 | 1418376960 | 0.000013164081860 | 0.0004344147014 |
| 32 | 2127565440 | 0.000019746122790 | 0.0006318759293 |
| 31 | 3855600 | 0.000000035784164 | 0.00000110930909 |
| 30 | 4552692480 | 0.000042253941074 | 0.001267618232 |
| 29 | 1138173120 | 0.000010563485269 | 0.0003063410728 |
| 27 | 396576000 | 0.000003680656888 | 0.00009937773598 |
| 26 | 25530785280 | 0.000236953473474 | 0.00616079031 |
| 25 | 38296177920 | 0.000355430210211 | 0.008885755255 |
| 24 | 1670760 | 0.000000015506471 | 0.0000003721553076 |
| 23 | 12140513280 | 0.000112677176198 | 0.002591575053 |
| 22 | 3035128320 | 0.000028169294049 | 0.0006197244691 |
| 21 | 202118716800 | 0.001875881665005 | 0.03939351497 |
| 20 | 50751761760 | 0.000471031584108 | 0.009420631682 |
| 19 | 108505837440 | 0.001007052262266 | 0.01913399298 |
| 18 | 162758756160 | 0.001510578393399 | 0.02719041108 |
| 16 | 9105384960 | 0.000084507882148 | 0.001352126114 |
| 15 | 2276346240 | 0.000021126970537 | 0.0003169045581 |
| 14 | 1819068451200 | 0.016882934985044 | 0.2363610898 |
| 13 | 454767112800 | 0.004220733746261 | 0.0548695387 |
| 12 | 115739559936 | 0.001074189079750 | 0.01289026896 |
| 11 | 173609339904 | 0.001611283619625 | 0.01772411982 |
| 9 | 7175214446400 | 0.066593799107671 | 0.599344192 |
| 7 | 3092416367040 | 0.028700989474574 | 0.2009069263 |
| 6 | 773104091760 | 0.007175247368643 | 0.04305148421 |
| 2 | 25830772007040 | 0.239737676787617 | 0.4794753536 |
| -3 | 67686189611040 | 0.628201504915700 | -1.884604515 |
| 107745984499230 | 1.000000000000000 | -0.1218545794 |
Quote: ParadigmIt isn't a disaster of a side bet at about 4.02% HE. Of course the last place I saw it (Florida), the perfect match paid only 10-1 which jumps the HE up to 7% range....that is a disaster!
I have normally said that if a side bet offers a reasonable multi unit pay, has an HE less than Roulette, doesn't have a top loaded RTP pay table (e.g. without the one in 300 hands event hitting, you are playing against a 13% HE!) and has a reasonable hit rate (high teens to low 20%'s), I'll give it some action and see how it goes.
But gambling is a recreational event for me and I expect to lose my bankroll......I just want to be entertained as it happens :-).
I'm not going to make a bet that has over 10 times the house edge of the blackjack game that I'm playing but I'm not your typical player. I root for those who do play the match, congratulate them when they win and never make disparaging remarks about the side bet. I usually play along when told how much I'm losing by not playing. I truly enjoy it when someone hits the match.
Inevitably a player is going to see me matching and ask if they can play my bet. If it is a poor player who doesn't take advantage of doubles or splits I'll allow it. I'm not a "what's in it for me kind of guy" but the scavenger play is too good to pass up. In exchange for playing my match they are more than willing to let me take the doubles, splits and even insurance bets that they don't want.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm the same way. Unfortunately more and more casinos are forbidding others to make bets on your non-played side bet.
At one of my home casinos it is allowed but the player cannot place the chips on my spot as they are wont to do in their excitement. They must give them to me for placement. Curiously, they have no problem with me sliding my own chips over to the other player's spot without the extra step when it's a double or split.
Quote: ParadigmIt isn't a disaster of a side bet at about 4.02% HE. Of course the last place I saw it (Florida), the perfect match paid only 10-1 which jumps the HE up to 7% range....that is a disaster
When Northern Quest casino in Airway Heights WA had MTD, they paid 9:1 for a suited. Presumably because suited a pay 9:1 on MTD in Spanish 21, which they already had prior. 9:1 in Spanish is fair. 9:1 in Blackjack makes a 13%+ house edge. Yeowch!
Quote: 1BBInevitably a player is going to see me matching and ask if they can play my bet. If it is a poor player who doesn't take advantage of doubles or splits I'll allow it. I'm not a "what's in it for me kind of guy" but the scavenger play is too good to pass up. In exchange for playing my match they are more than willing to let me take the doubles, splits and even insurance bets that they don't want.
I had a similar experience in FL. At times I had 3 other players wagering on my Match bet while I had no $ on it. Casino did not mind other players handing me chips or in fact placing their chips directly on my betting spot. Winning bets were paid to me and I was responsible for divvy out the winnings. It was a totally new experience for me.
How do you get a player to agree to a double that you fund? What if you double their 10 against a 9, and the hit card is a 3? They would hit again were it not for the double & then they lose the hand when the dealer flips over 19.
Quote: ParadigmI had a similar experience in FL. At times I had 3 other players wagering on my Match bet while I had no $ on it. Casino did not mind other players handing me chips or in fact placing their chips directly on my betting spot. Winning bets were paid to me and I was responsible for divvy out the winnings. It was a totally new experience for me.
How do you get a player to agree to a double that you fund? What if you double their 10 against a 9, and the hit card is a 3? They would hit again were it not for the double & then they lose the hand when the dealer flips over 19.
Many inexperienced players are afraid to double or split. When they hesitate, I offer to put the extra unit up. A word of caution. You must thoroughly explain this so there are no mistakes or misunderstandings. When there is a split, I offer to let them choose which hand they want. They like that. Suffice to say, you must be choosey when doing this as it can draw attention if an argument ensues. A lot of players double for less and I'm on that as well. Even some novices know not to take insurance. When I ask if I can insure their hand, they roll their eyes and say sure.
Although they may be able to take another card by not doubling, these folks want to "play right" rather than risk changing the flow of the cards.
They want everyone to be on the same "team" and this bonding makes them feel good. I'm only one guy but I try to do what I can for the nice people at my table. Truth be told, I sometimes have pangs of guilt when I wong out and watch them eat cards. It quickly passes.
Quote: IbeatyouracesOne of my favorites is when they have a blackjack with an ace up and ask for even money. I'll offer them the even money to decline it and if no dealer blackjack, I get the 3:2 payoff. My largest one was a guy's $200 bj. I tossed him two benjis. No bj for the dealer and I got the $300 winnings. The count was ridiculously minus too!
That's brilliant, and something I may try to work in.
1BB, funding the split hand seems less volatile than the "funded double hand" from a "misunderstanding" standpoint as well. I'll fund the split and you get one hand and I take the other, which one do you want? However, the split hands are not always +EV correct? Oftentimes you are splitting a pair simply to have a less -EV situation than not splitting. But you guys are both way ahead of me on that I am sure :-).
Do you ever get players that are used to you funding their splits, asking for you to fund a split when you know each of the split hands is -EV against the dealers upcard?
Quote: ParadigmThis is brilliant IBYA! And no way for an argument to ensue.
1BB, funding the split hand seems less volatile than the "funded double hand" from a "misunderstanding" standpoint as well. I'll fund the split and you get one hand and I take the other, which one do you want? However, the split hands are not always +EV correct? Oftentimes you are splitting a pair simply to have a less -EV situation than not splitting. But you guys are both way ahead of me on that I am sure :-).
Do you ever get players that are used to you funding their splits, asking for you to fund a split when you know each of the split hands is -EV against the dealers upcard?
Yes we do! Fortunately, our table mates know that blackjack depends on hunches and when I get a hunch they respect it. Maybe they roll their eyes as well. I don't always look.
Quote: DeucekiesIn Western Washington, Spanish 21 and Players Edge 21 are commonly played with 5 decks. Unsuited and suited pay 3:1 and 13:1 respectively in both games. Wizard, would you be willing to add this to your analysis?
Yes, definitely the most common pay table at the casinos I’ve been in here in Washington.
| Event | Combinations | Probability | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 SUITED | 2880 | 0.0002109630463 | 26 | 0.005485039204 |
| 1 NON 1 SUITED | 28800 | 0.002109630463 | 16 | 0.03375408741 |
| 2 NON | 50400 | 0.00369185331 | 6 | 0.02215111986 |
| 1 SUITED | 422400 | 0.03094124679 | 13 | 0.4022362083 |
| 1 NON | 1584000 | 0.1160296755 | 3 | 0.3480890264 |
| No matches | 11563200 | 0.8470166309 | -1 | -0.8470166309 |
| Total | 13651680 | 1 | -0.03530114975 |
Quote: mipletYes, definitely the most common pay table at the casinos I’ve been in here in Washington.
Event Combinations Probability Pays Return 2 SUITED 2880 0.0002109630463 26 0.005485039204 1 NON 1 SUITED 28800 0.002109630463 16 0.03375408741 2 NON 50400 0.00369185331 6 0.02215111986 1 SUITED 422400 0.03094124679 13 0.4022362083 1 NON 1584000 0.1160296755 3 0.3480890264 No matches 11563200 0.8470166309 -1 -0.8470166309 Total 13651680 1 -0.03530114975
Two and a half years later, I realize I never thanked you for this! Shame on me. Thank you!
Quote: Deucekies
Two and a half years later, I realize I never thanked you for this! Shame on me. Thank you!
You’re welcome. My spreadsheet was dated way before that so I must have already done the math before you asked.
