Bankroll / Bet Spread Question
What is the minimum bankroll you would take to this table and what kind of betting spread would you use?
Quote: WandererAlright, here are the conditions: $10 minimum. Two deck game. 3/2 Blackjack. S17. DAS. No surrender. Hi/Lo counting system.
What is the minimum bankroll you would take to this table and what kind of betting spread would you use?
Penetration folks! When stating game conditions for counting, people always seem to leave out the single most important variable.....PENETRATION. This particular game could be a great game or an unplayable game.....depending on penetration.
A second issue I would want to know before I planned my attack (set bet spread & ramp and exit points) is what kind of heat is involved.
Quote: kewljPenetration folks! When stating game conditions for counting, people always seem to leave out the single most important variable.....PENETRATION. This particular game could be a great game or an unplayable game.....depending on penetration.
A second issue I would want to know before I planned my attack (set bet spread & ramp and exit points) is what kind of heat is involved.
Penetration is probably 60-70%. Heat hasn't been a significant concern for me at this particular casino.
Assuming The same rules and not so good penetration.Quote: kewljPenetration folks! When stating game conditions for counting, people always seem to leave out the single most important variable.....PENETRATION. This particular game could be a great game or an unplayable game.....depending on penetration.
A second issue I would want to know before I planned my attack (set bet spread & ramp and exit points) is what kind of heat is involved.
What if you could spread 1 to 750 heat free all day? I think I might want the spread over the penetration.
VS a normal spread and good penetration?
At what point do you go for the bet spread over the penetration?
I would spread either 1-8 or 1-12, but my first wager would be either 2, or 3, meaning I would be spreading up 1-4, but also spreading down during negative counts. This way the spread looks smaller 1-4 going up, but is effectively much bigger. With the rules stated, DD, s17, DAS, the game turns +EV by TC +1, so that would be my first jump from 2 or 3 'units' (and this isn't really the proper use of the term units) to 4 or 6. My next raise would probably be at TC +3 where I would again double up to my max bet of either 8 or 12 units. I like the double up approach because it allows you to raise your bet after a winning hand from only the chips on the felt. If the hand loses, then you can go to the chips in front of you and the larger bets looks like you are parlaying or 'chasing'.
So using red chips (not my level), my ramp might look something like this.
negative count $10
count of 0 (including first bet) $20
TC +1 $40
TC +3 $80
note: this spread is NOT optimal. Note that it looks like you skip a step @ the TC +2, where you could opt for a wager of $60. You could do that, but I like to stay on the double-up format and fewer jumps makes it a little harder to see just what you are doing as parley players and players 'chasing' losses often double up.
I would bring 20 max bets to the game, in this case maybe $1500 or so.
Quote: AxelWolfAssuming The same rules and not so good penetration.
What if you could spread 1 to 750 heat free all day? I think I might want the spread over the penetration.
VS a normal spread and good penetration?
At what point do you go for the bet spread over the penetration?
I just don't know, Axel. I mean that dream scenario of "heat free" is just so far away from my reality, I can't even begin, to daydream about such. Lol. So I am going to approach the question as if it was a new store I was not real familiar with and use a spread that should draw minimum heat (which I did above). I mean if it was really a "heat free scenario, look out! :)
As for spread overcoming lousy penetration. Of course, but at a high short term cost of variance. I mean take a 6 deck CSM for example. Many places don't feed the cards back into the machine until 1/2 to 3/4 deck have accumulated, so in a sense you are playing a very shallow 6 deck game. It would be possible to beat that by spreading huge, like $5 to $1000. But who wants to go through that?
If it was not possible I would not be asking. I may be over stating the 60% pen and it might be lower.Quote: kewljI just don't know, Axel. I mean that dream scenario of "heat free" is just so far away from my reality, I can't even begin, to daydream about such. Lol. So I am going to approach the question as if it was a new store I was not real familiar with and use a spread that should draw minimum heat (which I did above). I mean if it was really a "heat free scenario, look out! :)
As for spread overcoming lousy penetration. Of course, but at a high short term cost of variance. I mean take a 6 deck CSM for example. Many places don't feed the cards back into the machine until 1/2 to 3/4 deck have accumulated, so in a sense you are playing a very shallow 6 deck game. It would be possible to beat that by spreading huge, like $5 to $1000. But who wants to go through that?
I have been asking and debating this with others (spread VS penetration about similar situations.) I'm on the big spread side of the debate.
Is there some cart or simulator that can run all the different situations? something you have it play exactly how you would play it yourself?
Obviously I'm not talking about a table game in a normal casino. Lets assume you can do this online. and everything IS FAIR.
Quote: AxelWolfIf it was not possible I would not be asking. I may be over stating the 60% pen and it might be lower.
Yeah, 60% pen on DD game isn't particularly bad, assuming all other things are equal. I play a number of 60% DD games in my regular rotation. It's when a game get down below that, that you would have to start compensating with a bigger spread.
But again, I think what you are talking about is a really massive spread to overcome really bad conditions. That's when you have to consider that while it may be +EV, is it REALLY worth it?
Quote: AxelWolfIf it was not possible I would not be asking. I may be over stating the 60% pen and it might be lower.
I have been asking and debating this with others (spread VS penetration about similar situations.) I'm on the big spread side of the debate.
Is there some cart or simulator that can run all the different situations? something you have it play exactly how you would play it yourself?
Obviously I'm not talking about a table game in a normal casino. Lets assume you can do this online. and everything IS FAIR.
That's why I'm asking. I will put up a specific example later. When I across some of these kinds of plays everyone I deal with always poo poos it, claiming Bad penetration or whatever. No one takes the time to think about the huge bet spread.Quote: kewljYeah, 60% pen on DD game isn't particularly bad, assuming all other things are equal. I play a number of 60% DD games in my regular rotation. It's when a game get down below that, that you would have to start compensating with a bigger spread.
But again, I think what you are talking about is a really massive spread to overcome really bad conditions. That's when you have to consider that while it may be +EV, is it REALLY worth it?
Quote:I mean if it was really a "heat free scenario, look out! :)
Let's take your $1,500 bankroll suggestion and assume (hypothetically) that you're playing in a heat free environment. Play however you want and no one would bother you. How would that change your strategy from the $10 (-), $20 (0), $40 (+1), $80 (+3) spread you mentioned in a previous post?
Quote: WandererThanks a lot for the info, folks.
Quote:I mean if it was really a "heat free scenario, look out! :)
Let's take your $1,500 bankroll suggestion and assume (hypothetically) that you're playing in a heat free environment. Play however you want and no one would bother you. How would that change your strategy from the $10 (-), $20 (0), $40 (+1), $80 (+3) spread you mentioned in a previous post?
It's tied to your max bet recommendation. Double your max bet double your bankroll. I'd be more comfortable with 30 max bets.
Quote: WandererLet me ask this question too. kewlj said the game conditions I mentioned will turn to the player's favor at a TC of +1. If you could only place two different bet amounts at the table (with the table minimum of $10 being one of them) what would the second bet have to be (used under all favorable conditions of +1 TC or better) to overcome the house in the long run?
Anyone have an answer to this?
Quote: WandererAnyone have an answer to this?
The information to answer this question for 60% pen is in the frequency charts at the back of professional blackjack. I think it assumes one player at the table other than you.
Quote: AxelWolfI may be over stating the 60% pen and it might be lower.
I'm assuming that means 43 cards undealt when the shuffle card comes out, right?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe information to answer this question for 60% pen is in the frequency charts at the back of professional blackjack. I think it assumes one player at the table other than you.
Where can I find "the frequency charts at the back of professional blackjack"? I don't really follow you there.
Quote: WandererWhere can I find "the frequency charts at the back of professional blackjack"? I don't really follow you there.
There is a book called Professional Blackjack. It's written by Stanford Wong. At the back of the book there are appendices. One of them (Appendix C, IIRC) contains frequencies and edges for all the counts for different games. One of the games is a double deck game with the cut card placed 42 cards from the bottom. That is about 60% pen.
He may use different rules, but the rules more or less change the edge by a constant amount at each count, so you can just or subtract some constant from all the edges. The frequencies will not change if the pen does not change. From there it's just some simple number crunching.
A $10. table at my place would attract new and bad players filling up spots to make a full table. Counting is almost futile when you only get 3-4 hands then a shuffle. Mix the variable of new and inexperience players deters me from making a high bet of $40 or $80.
Consider playing in the day when there are fewer people (such as in the middle of the week), or increase your bet and find a $25 min table.
-Kit
Quote: KitKatI would keep in mind of (or watch against) ploppers / other-players.
A $10. table at my place would attract new and bad players filling up spots to make a full table. Counting is almost futile when you only get 3-4 hands then a shuffle. Mix the variable of new and inexperience players deters me from making a high bet of $40 or $80.
Consider playing in the day when there are fewer people (such as in the middle of the week), or increase your bet and find a $25 min table.
-Kit
I am often able to play a $10 table by myself if I show up early in the morning. I much prefer to play by myself. I hate crowded tables.
I have hi/lo counting down cold. I'm just looking to refine my betting strategy with the most effective spread I can use. Any advice would be appreciated.
Is this a profitable strategy over the long haul?
This is clearly profitable, by the way.
Quote: WandererThanks. I ordered Professional Blackjack today and am looking forward to reading it. I'm plenty comfortable counting and know basic strategy by heart. Right now, I am trying to work on my betting strategy and some of the basic strategy deviations based on the count. Do you (or anyone else) have any more advice in that aspect?
Betting strategy: bet more when the count is good :) It really depends on what you can get away with; there is no right answer here.
Playing strategy: Since you know basic strategy, start with the I18. These are in Blackjack Attack, but the Wizard reprinted them on his website (with permission, of course) so you can read them for free without ripping anyone off. They are listed in order from most profitable to least profitable, so start at the top. I'd recommend skipping splitting 10s until you have some idea of what you can get away with. Insurance is kind of a sticky one. It's too valuable to skip, but insuring properly is kind of strange-looking. There is going to be a trade-off here. At the very least, you can get away with insuring your good hands, only when the count is good. From there, you need to develop your own playing style. I'd recommend Burning the Tables by Ian Andersen for this. I'm not saying that you should play exactly as he does, but he discusses some good concepts around what plays to make (essentially, what cover is cheap and what isn't).
Just remember that the lower you are playing the less cover you will need. Don't go overboard. Spreading $10-$50 requires almost no cover; you can probably get away with playing by the book at most places. Although jump-spreading from $10 back to $50 and back down to $10 might get some strange looks. At the very least, I'd go $10 - $25 - $50.
Quote:Playing strategy: Since you know basic strategy, start with the I18. These are in Blackjack Attack, but the Wizard reprinted them on his website (with permission, of course) so you can read them for free without ripping anyone off. They are listed in order from most profitable to least profitable, so start at the top.
Thanks again, Axiom. Do you mind linking me to this page?
It's my first search result when I search for "illustrious 18" (which is good, because I'd never be able to find it otherwise)
Quote: AxiomOfChoicehttps://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/
It's my first search result when I search for "illustrious 18" (which is good, because I'd never be able to find it otherwise)
Thanks again, Axiom. You're a lot of help. Exactly what I wanted. I appreciate it.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's why I'm asking. I will put up a specific example later. When I across some of these kinds of plays everyone I deal with always poo poos it, claiming Bad penetration or whatever. No one takes the time to think about the huge bet spread.
Well maybe we think about a huge bet spread lol. But maybe we also think about what effect that may have on risk-of-ruin of one's bankroll. It's great playing at an advantage that a huge spread might give you but... really 750 to 1 you were suggesting?!
Just think it's good to know not only EV with a given spread but also ROR. What good does it do to have an expected win rate of $50/rd but with a 98% chance of losing your bankroll?
Don's tables or a simulator are good for that.
Is one able to attach a spreadsheet here? If so I could post one for Don's tables I made up so I could change spreads etc. But maybe that's not right thing to do anyway?
Quote: KitKatI would keep in mind of (or watch against) ploppers / other-players.
A $10. table at my place would attract new and bad players filling up spots to make a full table. Counting is almost futile when you only get 3-4 hands then a shuffle. Mix the variable of new and inexperience players deters me from making a high bet of $40 or $80.
Consider playing in the day when there are fewer people (such as in the middle of the week), or increase your bet and find a $25 min table.
-Kit
There is one very important valid point you're making here, which is that more players (ploppies or not) decreases your rounds/hour and thus your win rate, and in a marginal penetration game, greatly reduce the rounds you can play while those precious last few cards are being dealt out before the shuffle.
But there is also another point you make that is completely invalid in my view, which is that new or inexperienced players deter you from making your big bets in a high count. If the penetration is playable with 2 or 3 other players, then you shouldn't concern yourself with how they play, as it won't effect your advantage in good counts.
Quote: Wandererwould you rather play a 1-5 spread at a 2D game or a 1-10 spread at a 6D game?
All else is seldom, if ever, equal.
2 deck. 65% penetration or better if I get that choice.
Quote: DieterAll else is seldom, if ever, equal.
2 deck. 65% penetration or better if I get that choice.
What would be your reason?
Quote: WandererWhat would be your reason?
Several.
I enjoy handheld over face up. Most of the 2 deck games I encounter are handheld, not face up. The handheld games often seem to be disconcerting to new casual players, causing them to get "scared away from the table". I don't particularly like playing at the same table with new, casual players. These are, of course, subjective things, which actually could be "equal".
Things that are unlikely to actually be equal: the 2 deck game is likely to get dealt farther in. There are likely to be far more than 36 cards remaining when the shuffle card comes out on 6 deck (I expect 52-76 remaining on 6 deck). The 2 deck game offers a somewhat lower house edge vs 6 deck. The 2 deck game gets shuffled away sooner on bad cards. The 2 deck game heats up much quicker on good cards. If you were counting and lost count, you could start over fresh in probably 2 or 3 hands.
I have to agree, that all things are rarely created equal. And one of those tangibles, that is top priority for me is heat. Generally, double deck games are watched much more closely than 6 deck. As a matter of fact, I have a couple stores in my rotation, that will quickly back off a player spreading 1-4 or 1-5 on doubledeck, but almost ignore the 6 deck game at the very next table, allowing players to spread 1-20, 1-24.
Quote:As a matter of fact, I have a couple stores in my rotation, that will quickly back off a player spreading 1-4 or 1-5 on doubledeck, but almost ignore the 6 deck game at the very next table, allowing players to spread 1-20, 1-24.
How do you get around this, just play 6D?
