chrisr
chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
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March 27th, 2014 at 5:44:00 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

1. Table min straight to table max will get you backed off in short order
2. Use a real count if you are serious.



hmm i thought it would be a good way to get a lot of money on the table with high counts.

you play standard, doubling your bets to up to 16x when there are more As in the deck.. then you can jump the bet a lot when the deck is really good.

i don't really see how you trick the casino into ever letting you make huge bets like that when the decks are good really
Tomspur
Tomspur
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March 27th, 2014 at 5:56:07 PM permalink
Quote: chrisr

hmm i thought it would be a good way to get a lot of money on the table with high counts.

you play standard, doubling your bets to up to 16x when there are more As in the deck.. then you can jump the bet a lot when the deck is really good.

i don't really see how you trick the casino into ever letting you make huge bets like that when the decks are good really



The secret is you don't. Jumping 16 units on a hot deck will almost always get you heat. This will result in your play being scrutinized by Surveillance in which case you are in trouble. Make smaller jumps, make the occasional bad play, drink loads of O'Douls and keep your play short.

Using this voucher and counting is a danger ous combination. The first time you use the voucher and get a blackjack later in the shoe, your goose is cooked.

Read up about cover plays but as Grosjean says "naked is the best cover". Just don't over play, keep the sessions short and get out.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
chrisr
chrisr
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March 27th, 2014 at 6:37:25 PM permalink
so the strategy is 1x..2x..4x..16x.. just based on the number of aces (i've heard adds about .5%).. so you are betting up to 16x occasionally and playing standard... then occasionally you make an erratic bet of say 100x units when the deck has a 6-7% advantage.

I probably have to read up on this whole thing.. im basing everything off of that kevin spacey movie.

like i said i wouldn't really want to grind.. so i was looking for ways to get away with 6-7% edge.. which is probably requires being more clever than i am.
Tomspur
Tomspur
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March 27th, 2014 at 6:48:01 PM permalink
Quote: chrisr

so the strategy is 1x..2x..4x..16x.. just based on the number of aces (i've heard adds about .5%).. so you are betting up to 16x occasionally and playing standard... then occasionally you make an erratic bet of say 100x units when the deck has a 6-7% advantage.

I probably have to read up on this whole thing.. im basing everything off of that kevin spacey movie.

like i said i wouldn't really want to grind.. so i was looking for ways to get away with 6-7% edge.. which is probably requires being more clever than i am.



If you are looking for an advantage that big, card counting isn't it. You will want to look at hole carding blackjack or perhaps card steering. (This is quite topical right now as a local Vegas casino recently broke up a steering operation).

No way you can get a 6 or 7% advantage counting cards.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
chrisr
chrisr
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March 27th, 2014 at 6:49:57 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

If you are looking for an advantage that big, card counting isn't it. You will want to look at hole carding blackjack or perhaps card steering. (This is quite topical right now as a local Vegas casino recently broke up a steering operation).

No way you can get a 6 or 7% advantage counting cards.



isn't the deck around a 6% advantage at a +12 hi-low count?
Tomspur
Tomspur
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March 27th, 2014 at 6:56:13 PM permalink
Quote: chrisr

isn't the deck around a 6% advantage at a +12 hi-low count?



Depends on penetration and bet size.

There are many things involved in card counting. I would suggest you read up on Kelly, bet spreads, heat, different counting systems, basic strategy, deviations and most importantly penetration and the effect it has on your edge.

The bottom line is this. A card counter cannot get more than a MAXIMUM 1 % edge over the game by employing perfect playing in a casino with no heat and 75% penetration.

There are other things at work such as deck composition but it is pretty advanced with many more first steps to take.

If you are serious about gaining an edge rather look into other opportunities. That would be my suggestion.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
chrisr
chrisr
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March 27th, 2014 at 7:05:40 PM permalink
right, so in the last deck, if the count were +12, you'd have a 6% advantage. if you place large bets at over +12 in double deck and negligable bets otherwise you would have around 6% advantage, no? am i thinking about that wrong?
Tomspur
Tomspur
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March 27th, 2014 at 7:14:26 PM permalink
Quote: chrisr

right, so in the last deck, if the count were +12, you'd have a 6% advantage. if you place large bets at over +12 in double deck and negligable bets otherwise you would have around 6% advantage, no? am i thinking about that wrong?



Again, due to penetration (unseen cards) as well as the balance between your low bets and your 1 or 2 high ones, your advantage will never be more than 1%.

Remember you are still making table minimum wagers in low positve or indeed negative counts which will affect your overall advantage.

See it as a whole endeavor and not a bet by bet case. You cannot gain an advantage bigger than 1% by card counting, no matter where in the deck you are, UNLESS you wong in (read up on what that means) right at the end of the shoe in a +12 TC (would love to see that), have one bet at table max, then leave.......

This may give you a larger edge but you will have ZERO longevity. You will be asked to never play blackjack again.

Perhaps some more learned individuals here can comment. I'm only a lowly casino employee. I'm almost 100% positive I don't understand card counting too well :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
dwheatley
dwheatley
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March 27th, 2014 at 7:14:51 PM permalink
The problem is that you won't see counts of +12. Wong estimates you see counts of +6 or higher in a double deck game 2% of the time. You are going to get very bored waiting for counts of +12. It's not worth your time.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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March 27th, 2014 at 7:57:13 PM permalink
Quote: chrisr

isn't the deck around a 6% advantage at a +12 hi-low count?



Sure. With a +12 true count. How often do you think that this happens?

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