BJ in Europe plz help wiz

Hi everyone, i need Your advice and maybe little encouregment:) In my local casino there is game Like this. 6 deck DOE, DAS, resplit all except aces, there is no hole card, dealer stands on soft 17. Table min is 5€, max 200€. There is six card Charlie paying 2 to one but you cannot drow on soft 11( it counts as 21) and one wierd bonus rule. Red suited AK blackjack pays, if you play min 20€+ 3 to 2 and extra100€. I calculated that if i play basic strategy with 20 € hunting for those 2 suited BJ(AK diamond and AK of harts) by my calculation if i play 20€ hand i have positive expectation of 0.075 € or 7.5 eurocents per hand and i can practise counting in casino enviroment:) Untill today i played 800 hands of BJ flatbeting 20€. I got three suited bj ak bonus and one 6 card charlie. And i am down more then 1100 euro. Is this just bad luck, standard deviation in work or did i just miscalculated. Please help me! How big bankroll must i build so it could not go broke on this game?

Hi,

I made some calculations of my own. They tell me you use 0.367% for the house edge. And if this is the case you do have a positive expectation of €0.075 per hand or your advantage is 0.375%. The effect of 6-card Charlie rule is 0.16% over the house edge, but your casino pays 2 to 1 for such a hand. This should double the effect of this bonus rule. And I am not sure what is going on if the dealer gets a BJ. You lose your bet or you win it with a 6-card unbusted hand? So, the house edge is not more than 0.21%. But you should follow a specific Charlie strategy to take full advantage of this rule. And I am not sure such a precise strategy exists when the hand is paid 2 to 1. But a look into Wong’s Basic Blackjack could come in handy (I admit I haven’t read this book). You could use the wizard’s strategy on https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/charlie/.

About bankroll question, life is really harsh at the tables. Flat-betting €20 for 800 hands yields a standard deviation of about €650. So, a loss of €1100 is normal. According to Brett Harris the long run is when expectation is equal to 1 standard deviation. Taking this definition into account and assuming your advantage to be 0.375%, you should play about 90,000 hands to get into the long run. You should be able to withstand at least 2 standard deviations of bad luck. One SD is about €6800. And 1 SD for getting a bonus hand is about 11.55. For 90,000 hands you are expected to get about 133.56 bonus hands +/- 11.55x2. With 90,000 hands your expectation is €6750. So, you will need 2x6800+2x11.55x100-6750 or €9160. And this is from a pessimistic point of view. With 0.21% house edge your EV is €0.1064. This means player’s edge of 0.53% or about 45,000 hands to get into the long run. And the bankroll falls to about €6450. With 2 SD against you, you still have about 2.3% risk of ruin. So, taking into account 3SDs, the bankroll jumps to about €16,000 (90,000 hands) or €11,500 (45,000 hands).

You could improve your chances by using a counting system for bonus hands. All red aces and kings get a tag of -1. You start your running count at 24. Convert it to true count by dividing by the number of remaining decks. When the TC drops to 3 or less, bet the table minimum or better do not play at all. When the count jumps to 4 or more, bet €20. If mid-shoe entry is allowed you could jump in and out of the game. Thus playing only when having a bigger chance for the bonus.

But don’t bother to count. Play perfect basic strategy taking into account the Charlie rule, capitalize well and go kill’em.

VPRookie

Thank you VPRookie, for your math info this will realy get me some positive atitude

Few clarification, yes you do get automaticaly paid two to one when you take six unbusted cards, and in European BJ dealer does not have hole card, he drows last. Only thing is that if I get 5 card soft 11 i can't drow 6, card for charlie. They count 5 card soft 11 as 21, so teoreticaly speaking if i get 5 card soft 11 i could loose on dealer BJ:( but 6 card charlie gets me paid even if dealer has BJ.

There is matter of house ege I calculated that house ege playing without charlie rule and extra A red K suited bonus, house has ege is from 0,54% up to 0,62% depending on which internet page I look. ( 6 hands european no peek, DOA, DAS, resplit to 4 times, aces can't resplit, BJ 3 to 2, no surender, dealer stand on soft 17).

Is this estimation correct or did calculated wrongly on charlie.

If House ege is 0,62% then i loose on every 20€ (20*0,0062) 12,4 eurocents per hand
If House ege is 0,54% then i loose on every 20€ (20*0,0054) 10,8 eurocents per hand


I get every 400 hands 6 card charlie worth 40€ thet means i gain 10 eurocents per hand
I get every 26*26= 676 hands extra bonus of 100€, that means I gain 14,79 eurocent per hand

In total my expectation is depending on my source of house ege is from 12,39 cents up to 13,99 cents per hand, and up to now i lost 1100€/800, 1,375€uro per hand boy i love standard deviation:)))

Please check this, an thank you once again you have been very helpfull:))

with regards

niqueclyde

Update today standard deviation turned the tide it was nice to cut some loses, i brought 600 euro back. Thnx VP Rookie

Hi niqueclyde,

I’m glad you find my response helpful.

The correct house edge (without Charlie rule) is realistically 0.54%. 0.54% takes into account the cut-card effect. If the dealer shuffles after every hand (software; continuous shuffler) the house edge is theoretically 0.52%.

So, you do lose 10.8 eurocents a hand from the house edge.

About Charlie rule effect, well, I’m not quite sure. According to your calculations (10 eurocents per hand), this should lessen the house edge by 0.5%. It looks to me a little bit too much, but it could be correct ‘cause you win versus dealer’s natural. On the other hand you are not allowed to hit on soft 21. And for hole card rules, where you lose versus dealer’s BJ, the effect should be about 0.32%. So, 0.5% could be a correct estimation.

The probability of getting a bonus hand is about 0.0014840465 (0.1484%). This means you are expected to be dealt a bonus hand once every 673.83(3) hands. So, you get 14.84 eurocents per hand from the €100 bonus.

And finally, my calculations about bankroll requirements a little bit more conservative (incorrect). This is because I summed the SD for the play and the SD for the bonus. This is incorrect math. The correct approach is to sum the 2 variances and then take a square root for the SD. Thus, here are the new more correct bankroll requirements:
- €7,050 instead of €9,160;
- €4,930 instead of €6,450;
- €13,950 instead of €16,000;
- €9,800 instead of €11,500.

VPRookie

Thx VPRookie,

I estemated charlie rule like this. I sow in numerous places that 6 card charlie happens 1 in 400 plays. And if i always win 2*20€ that means that every 400 hands i win 40€. And from that i calculated 10cents per hand.

BDW thanks for your answer and for corected bankroll requirements.

I have one question What would my bankroll be if i play 20€uros all true counts up to 2, and i bet 100€on count 3 and 200€on count 4 and 300€ on cout 5 and higher. My idea is to perfect basic strategy and hi lo count. And then use that to gain even more advantage.

Thx in advance

Niqueclyde

^ The above might not be entirely correct as there's an effect of the bonus on playing strategy and also some of the hands you might have won in any case.

I did come across (in Belgium) a version of the game that paid (if I recall) winning 5-card hands 6/4, 6-card hands 2/1 and 7+-card hands 3/1. This changed the strategy that on occasions you would hit 12s+ and some 3-card soft 18s. However the important thing is you needed to WIN to receive the bonus.

Many years ago there was also a 6-card 21 rule in Downtown Vegas where it was an automatic winner, and do remember beating a Blackjack by hitting a 5-card hard 17.

But from your description if any 6-card hand wins - it sounds good news.

Thx, did not think it like that. But i think that you get 6 card Charlie every 400 times just by playing basic strategy. If u go afere them u should get them more often. On example u do not double A2 or A3, maybe even u dont Split 22 on 2 or 7. It would be nice if somebody would do computer analysiz of Bj with 6card Charlie automatic winer 2 to 1. And proper basic strategy. Untill that i do not double on low aces. I think of not splitingAA in very low count. It would be nice to have some numbers. With regards

Niqueclyde

There's a useful table https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/automatic-winner-charlie-rule/ but this would assume the payout is evens rather than 2/1. I am guessing you would hit nearly all 5 card 17s but still stand on 18s (except perhaps an Ace) - you can do the maths yourself based on what rules the casino adopts using the infinite deck figures as you either (i) win 2 units when not busting or (ii) lose, and can compare that with the odds of standing. Similarly I would hit most soft 4-card 18s and some 19s. Not splitting Aces sounds a bad idea (as you've got a good chance of getting 21).

Thanx for advice.

Whare can i Find infinite deck figures and how could this look

On example if i hit hard 18 VS dealer Ace i have 3/13 chance to win double the amount invested
But if I stay on hard 18 I win vs ACE in european rules in --- %

Hi niqueclyde,

Gambling is a risky business.

By applying a bet ramp you will raise your advantage to about 1.5% (I assume 0.5% initial advantage because of the bonus and 75% penetration). But this comes at a price of bigger variance (fluctuations). When it comes to risk one is hard to trust mathematics. Some authors recommend your big bet to be not more than 1% of your bank. This assumes a bankroll of 30k. Some, like Wong, are much more conservative. They recommend your big bet to be not more than 1/250 of your bank or this is 0.4%. I think 30k is enough ‘cause you have an edge off the top of the shoe because of the bonus.

You could lessen your risk and improve your EV by playing 2/3 hands, if possible, at TC of 3 or higher (for example: 2x€50 at TC=3; 2x€100 at TC=4 and 3x€100 at TC≥5). Thus you will get 2/3 times more bonus hands at TC≥3. Your edge will be more than 1.5% at lower risk.

Good cards!

VPRookie

Thank you,

so you advise me to spread on high TC. Because the casino is not big i must play through all hands.

I foundsoftware and instaled it. It provided me with stategy and EV on hiting with 3, 4 or 5 hands with & card charlie And it calculated my EV for every hand. it is a great peace of freeware.
doeas somebody have some imput on that. IT gives me ev with charlie rule of -0.0008137 and positive EV with bonus rule of +0.0062
So now i Know what tu play on example hit all hard 4 card totals of 12 and 13 from 2 to A and hit even 14 on dealers 2.


Charle rule has also good side, if true count goes south house ege drops less because there is more small cards to play. On example on TC of-8 house ege is only 2%

With regards

Quote: niqueclyde

. . . . up to 0,62% (http://www.uk-21.org/basic_strategy.html) depending on which internet page I look.

Hi,

I run the UK-21.org site. Just out of interest, can you let me know which page on the site states the HE for a ENHC BJ game is 0.62%?
The URL http://www.uk-21.org/basic_strategy.html takes you to a page where I've published a BS table for the most commonly found game in the UK, and possibly Europe, but it clearly states the HE to be 0.55% - I took this figure from the widely respected Blackjackinfo.com site run by Ken Smith. I'm not aware there are any other pages that state the HE for BJ.

Thanks.

A question about BJ Assume no surrender and dealer hits soft 17, play can split all but aces up to 3 times, only one card on splits aces, players can double after split, double on any hard or soft value on first 2 cards, American hole card.

How high must TRUE count be to have an AP advantage in excess of 3% ? 8 deck if that helps ? ? ?

How often does that happen in 8 deck shoe, cut cards at 6 decks, SWAG acceptable.

Sry I did not reply sooner.


Yes it tells 0.55, on your site but in my casino you cant resplit aces so I added .07 to your number and got 0.62 Casino ege.

On other sites I found 0.55 without resplit aces

Still BJ is hack of the game, even when you play with slight positive ege:))

Quote: niqueclyde

Hi everyone, i need Your advice and maybe little encouregment:) In my local casino there is game Like this. 6 deck DOE, DAS, resplit all except aces, there is no hole card, dealer stands on soft 17. Table min is 5€, max 200€. There is six card Charlie paying 2 to one but you cannot drow on soft 11( it counts as 21) and one wierd bonus rule. Red suited AK blackjack pays, if you play min 20€+ 3 to 2 and extra100€. I calculated that if i play basic strategy with 20 € hunting for those 2 suited BJ(AK diamond and AK of harts) by my calculation if i play 20€ hand i have positive expectation of 0.075 € or 7.5 eurocents per hand and i can practise counting in casino enviroment:) Untill today i played 800 hands of BJ flatbeting 20€. I got three suited bj ak bonus and one 6 card charlie. And i am down more then 1100 euro. Is this just bad luck, standard deviation in work or did i just miscalculated. Please help me! How big bankroll must i build so it could not go broke on this game?

I'm surprised no one has talked about this bonus - it seems like it might move the edge a bit. It's a tiny number of hands, but pays a total of 130€ if you have a 20€ bet out, right? 30€ for the 3-2 BJ, and 100€ for the bonus? Pretty nice.

yap it is a good rule.