Are we being cheated?

Quote: Boz

Isnt the 10% of losses rebate how Johnson beat the Trop in AC a couple of years ago?

This may be the most important thing that has come up. I think Johnson had a 20% rebate, but the point stands.

Oscar's ploppy is not counting, not edge sorting, probably not shuffle tracking. He is either

(a) cheating with help from at least one dealer, who is giving him info about the next card off the shoe (unlikely but possible), or

(b) he is taking advantage of your loss rebate plan, and has gotten lucky.

I think (b) explains everything. Let's say his loss target for the day is $40000, and his win target is $10,000. Using your liberal rules, his odds of achieving his target is about 80% each day (slightly less, due to the house edge). Let's say 79% because he's a bit of a ploppy.

He has a 79% chance of winning $10,000, and a 21% chance of losing $40,000. Then you give him a $4,000 buy-in the next day, so he actually only lost $36,000.

EV of each day = 0.79 * 10,000 - .21 * 36,000 = +$340

So, even is he makes BS mistakes occasionally, as long as his edge stays low, he's actually expected to win in the long term. Then he catches some lucky cards, and he's way out ahead. If he knows this math, then he is playing the casino. It's been done before... the loss rebate feels like a good idea, but actually lets the player get the edge.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-man-who-broke-atlantic-city/308900/?single_page=true

You may need to discontinue, or at least reduce, the loss rebate.

I was puzzled for a while, but finally found where Oscar mentions the loss rebate

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/13273-are-we-being-cheated/3/#post225430 [it is #5]

I can say for sure giving a large percentage of members here a 10% rebate for losses would mean them taking you to the cleaners. The way it would act itself out would indeed mean the wins would be the striking thing, while the losses seem OK. Understanding why is definitely not intuitive to most people, as it seems that rebating only losses would be safe. WRONG.

That was my thought, too, but two things are throwing me.

1: His play. It could be cover, but it sounds like a lot of edge to give up for cover.
2: The fact that we're being told he's had twelve winning sessions in a row. That is definitely not what should be expected of someone exploiting a loss rebate.

Quote: Lexinger

Hey, I'm not the guy who posted a picture of a plain, ordinary playing card.

Wow, you're not Oscar? Whew, I'm relieved, because it would be pretty strange if you were both the guy with the problem and the solution and you were talking to yourself on a gambling board about it. So, I do not think you have schizophrenia or are using a sock puppet, what I think is that you're making stuff up.

You're the one that said:

Quote: Lexinger

For the very infrequent gullible who tries that stuff in my town, the dealers are told to ignore his hand signals, and take the money when his hand loses. After a few hands of that, they give it up completely and leave.

The practice you describe would not fly in any casinos that I'm aware of, and furthermore not every "infrequent gullible" would slink away with his tail between his legs, some would report the activity to the gaming commission and there would be an investigation. Since I haven't heard of any such investigation, and you refuse to provide any sort of evidence, I can only believe that you're making it up. For what reason? Who knows, the internet is a weird place.

Yeah, okay, you got me. Casinos get arrested, and worse stuff doesn't happen in the real world. Happy now? And, I should start posting up pretty "playing cards" like mostly everyone else because evidently that's about as close as you get to the real action. Lol.

Sometimes there's more to be learned from "winging it".

Quote: odiousgambit

I was puzzled for a while, but finally found where Oscar mentions the loss rebate

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/13273-are-we-being-cheated/3/#post225430 [it is #5]

I can say for sure giving a large percentage of members here a 10% rebate for losses would mean them taking you to the cleaners. The way it would act itself out would indeed mean the wins would be the striking thing, while the losses seem OK. Understanding why is definitely not intuitive to most people, as it seems that rebating only losses would be safe. WRONG. [edits]

Good catch OG. I was similarly confused about the rebate as I had missed the ill-quoted response there.

Quote: Lexinger

Yeah, okay, you got me.

Yeah, I know, but thanks for the affirmation, I guess.

Quote: Lexinger

Casinos get arrested,

Oh, how wonderfully absurd. I've never seen a casino lead out in handcuffs, that's soooo funny.

Uh, no, when casino employees cheat they are generally caught. Arrest and prosecution tend to follow.

Quote: Lexinger

and worse stuff doesn't happen in the real world.

I have no idea where you're coming up with this stuff, it's sorta like you inhabit your own reality and it just intersects with this one occasionally.

Quote: Lexinger

Happy now?

Absolutely.

Quote: Lexinger

And, I should start posting up pretty "playing cards"

There was a reason for the picture of the card. I can explain if it's eluding you.

Quote: Lexinger

like mostly everyone else

Oscar is everyone else? That whole schizophrenic thing is creeping back into focus.

Quote: Lexinger

because evidently that's about as close as you get to the real action. Lol.

Um, wrong again. I'm a dealer and I have a pretty good idea of what would fly and what wouldn't. I work with and talk to gaming agents all the time. Your fantasy about dealers cheating doesn't wash. That's how close I get to the real action.

Quote: Lexinger

Sometimes there's more to be learned from "winging it".

Well, I sure hope you're learning then, because posting ridiculous, unsubstantiated claims on the internet will nearly always get you called out.

And, a fine company "human shuffling machine", I'm sure.

Where do you all see talk of a rebate? He's just talking about table hold due to bad players.

Quote: sunrise089

Where do you all see talk of a rebate? He's just talking about table hold due to bad players.

"5. Do you give him 'comps', and is that included in the amount he is up?
Yes, we pay 10% of losses if he loses the previous day, which he uses as his first buyin. "

There we go.

For the record, if you want to catch someone taking advantage of your loss rebates, what they'll do is buy in for a certain amount, then bet the maximum or whatever they have (in blackjack, probably not more than half what they have for obvious reasons) until they n-tuple it or go broke. In general, n would be (1/edge)*P[loss]*rebate, but since in BS blackjack you can lose more than your bet, it would be slightly more. So as you describe, considering the increase in edge for potentially only being able to split or double once, the stop gain would be roughly decuple the stop loss, which if I'm understanding you is a lot more than this guy's doing.

I put up a short 15 minute video. If anyone is interested in analyzing more, let me know and I will upload more. Couple things:

1. He plays blackjack on a baccarat table. He prefers the table as it's in a more private area of the Casino floor.

2. We allow players to double down with the card face down. They love the emotion.

3. The side bet he occasionally makes is a version of 21+3.

4. The Black Chips are $500,000 Pesos! That's roughly $250.

http://youtu.be/JIhs3sZd6cg

I apologize for the quality of the video. I'm suffering degradation problems when moving off the DVR.

Again, thanks for the help.

Oscar

Now I don't play BJ but I've got one quick question for you . Why is your guy on the cell phone?

Quote: superrick

Now I don't play BJ but I've got one quick question for you . Why is your guy on the cell phone?

In most small casinos around the world there is no problem with someone talking on the phone and gambling. People speak on the phone all the time. It is way too much masino for the casino to lose to ban people from gambling when speaking on the phone.
The perceived security risk is minimal. Only in the US the do not allow people speaking on the phone and gambling.

Oscar from what you describe in all your answres and a quick look at your video, the most probable answer is that the guy has just been lucky.

Regarding exploiting the Rebates, Trust me 10% Rebate is nothing for an AP to exploit. There are casinos that offer a lot higher rebates than 10%, and Straight Counting is a much bigger % of an APs profit than the 10% Rebate.
You seem a knowledheable guy and you seem to already establish that he is not counting or doing any other AP technique.
You observed him doing weird plays like Standing on 6 which sometimes work and sometimes not.
His overall play is that of a Ploppy and the weird plays do not always occur (I assume you observed many of these weird plays and there are many times that they do not work). That indicates that he is not an AP and he is not knowing which card is coming next.

If you still suspect fould play by Player - Dealer Collusion then do some of these:
- Change all the decks of cards to be used when he plays and put good security on who handles such decks before the dealer gets them. ie that there are no marked cards
-Dealers tend to leave their left hand on the front card in the shoe waiting for the player to make the bet and then start dealing. Change the procedure so that dealers do not leave their left hand waiting for the bet, but only put their hand to deal after the player makes the bet. If the cards are marked by a small pin to make a very small intrusion that is not visible but can be felt by the dealers hand. Of course this means slowing the game and losing money because of that.

The other thing is whether you know who this guy is. Is he a well known rich guy where these kind of money he is winning or losing are not a huge thing for him or he is an unkown entity to you.
If he is well know rich guy who as you said in the past was losing a lot of money, then the most probable secenario is that he just got lucky and you would make a major mistake banning him and losing his business to another casino.

I would look at the card designs to see if there is a flaw. They are so complicated if there was a little white dot missing somewhere, who would be able to notice them if they didn't know they were there or not there.

I want to thank everyone for their replies. Variance appears to have turned in our favor and he has given back a good portion of winnings. Only problem is one of the other Casino partners (there are 4 of us) went to some sort of witch doctor for help the day before the client began to lose. Now he is convinced the lune is our savior. And yes, unfortunately I am serious.

Oscar

Quote: oscar33

I want to thank everyone for their replies. Variance appears to have turned in our favor and he has given back a good portion of winnings. Only problem is one of the other Casino partners (there are 4 of us) went to some sort of witch doctor for help the day before the client began to lose. Now he is convinced the lune is our savior. And yes, unfortunately I am serious.

Oscar

Oscar,

If your partners are going to witch doctors...they might be a bigger problem than 1 high roller experiencing positive variance. Seriously.

Quote: oscar33

I want to thank everyone for their replies. Variance appears to have turned in our favor and he has given back a good portion of winnings. Only problem is one of the other Casino partners (there are 4 of us) went to some sort of witch doctor for help the day before the client began to lose. Now he is convinced the lune is our savior. And yes, unfortunately I am serious.

Oscar

I found a gambling rant of the year once where a man said casinos were cursed by black magic, guarded by demons, etc. I'll try to find it when I can on Monday.

Okay, I see I am late to the party here. The shuffle is a single-pass riffle and re-stack, which is a shuffle-tracker's dream shuffle. I am sure you have trackers in your midst -- they will travel anywhere for that shuffle.

You may enjoy this introduction.

"Let's start with shuffle tracking. In the 70s Las Vegas casinos started introducing more shoe games. Many of the people working in the casinos believed that no one could count a shoe. Teams quickly realized that there was much more money to be made at the shoe games because they could play with far less heat. The shuffles were as simple as you could possibly imagine. They put the discards on top and did a one pass R&R. (Riffle and Restack) Many people started realizing that these shuffles were not hard to keep track of. I joined a team that was entirely devoted to shuffle tracking."

Mr Oscar...you may be one of those sore losers as we gamblers have been calling numerous times.... Your patron starts to win back a little and you shoot him down?? Accusing him of cheating???. Innocent until proven Guilty...

You allowed him max 500 per hand, max 3 hands (means 3 boxes in play at same round) and yet he can win $10-15K, which is not much at this rate. Winning 3 rounds at $500 x 3 = $1500, given you a total win of $4500. So, what is $10K???

In addition, you saw him going under at most times and pulling back with massive wins. Suppose, he was not able to pull back during those times...he lost bigtime. This is all you want of your patrons? For all to come and send you money???

I wish to see you doing the same thing, sitting on the table and losing before pulling back....you do that and then tell us how you feel, when we call you a cheater???

Winning isn't easy at all, and if the bloke wins some, go over and congratulate him...ask him to come back more often....long run...house wins all. Fair and square.

Ahem...this issue has long since been resolved. (The OP posted over 3 months ago with an update.) No need to go dredging up old threads just to chastise someone.