Thanks to Mike for this site !

For those of you who know me on this site, I am sure you are thinking I have posted in the wrong section. RaleighCraps posting something on Blackjack???

As a rule, I almost never play Blackjack. The game just beats me up something fierce. I have been playing the BJ trainers whose links have been posted in this forum, and my BS play is pretty good. I have never really studied it, but I am consistently scoring over 90% correct plays, even when playing the hard version. I tend toward the aggressive side, taking double downs at most any decent opportunity. Some would be considered aggressive play, while a couple are probably bad plays.

Since Cherokee does not have Pai Gow Poker for me to kill time on, I opted for BJ. $10 table, not sure but I think it was 8 decks. split up to 4x, no surrender, 3:2 BJ. Not sure about DAS. I was playing at 3rd base and playing solid BS, other than I hit my 14 vs a dealer 2 card. I think that is the wrong play, but not sure. It was the wrong play that time, as I busted with a 10, which would have busted the dealer. A second ten saved me from any table wrath ;-)

The following play came up, and thanks to this site, and all of the stories, I was able to make an advantage play.
Newish player is in the 3 slot, and is being coached by first base. Not sure if they knew each other or not. This player needs coaxing to double against a dealer 5 or 6, and is occasionally inclined to take hits when he should stand, but usually plays the cards correctly.
Dealer has a 6 showing, player has $15 bet and gets 6-6. First base convinces him to split. He gets a 6. He splits again. Next card is a 6. First base is telling him to split, but he says "No, I have too much out there now". Thanks to this site, I jump in and say, "I'll take the action on your split if you want." He says sure, and I give him $15. I had the last hand to be played. He got another 6 on one of the hands, which he was not allowed to split since he had 4 already. I don't recall how he played the hands. I know he wanted to hit the 12, but I think first base talked him out of that. My hand got an 8 for 14, and he looked to me to make a call. I said it's your hand to play, but I would stay against the dealer 6, so that was what he did. Dealer busted, I got paid $40 on my hand, and got another $15 profit from the hand I bought from the 3 slot.

Now I have called this an Advantage Play, but was it? Is buying a 6 against a dealer 6 really an AP ?

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If the play has a positive expectation, then yes. This is what we call "scavenger blackjack."

I see my question was ambiguous. What I was trying to ask was, "Is it a correct play to buy another player's 6, against a dealer's 6 up card?"

I believe the answer is, it is the correct play to BUY ANY hand against a Dealer's 6 up card.

Is this the correct play, and, would the same hold true for a dealer's 5 up card ?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If the play has a positive expectation, then yes. This is what we call "scavenger blackjack."

Does it have a positive expectation, or just a less negative expectation? Sure, 6 v 6 is better than 12 v 6. But is it actually positive?

Quote: rdw4potus

Does it have a positive expectation, or just a less negative expectation? Sure, 6 v 6 is better than 12 v 6. But is it actually positive?

My thinking was that I am getting to make a bet, knowing the dealer has a 6 as the up card. My thought is that alone, makes it an advantage for me to try and get as much money as I can into play, regardless of what card I would need to buy.
Hopefully one of the pros here can tell me if I am right or wrong.

edit: I do not count, so I have no idea what the deck looked like at this point.

Yes! That's an advantage play.

Here are the details for 6,6 vs 6 from Wizard of Odds for 8 decks and S17:



[Edit] So, I believe your EV was 0.157466($15)/2 = $1.18 for an 8-deck S17 DAS game.

Quote: ChesterDog

Yes! That's an advantage play.

Here are the details for 6,6 vs 6 from Wizard of Odds for 8 decks and S17:

Dealer	Player	Stand	        Hit	        Double	        Split	        Split
					                        DAS-No	        DAS-Yes
6	6,6	-0.154424	-0.172989	-0.345978	-0.002346	0.157466

So, your EV was 0.157466($15) = $2.36 for an 8-deck, S17, and DAS game.

Isn't that how you would calculate the play if I had made the original bet?

In this case, I have no money in play.
I get to see the dealer's up card is a 6.
I then get a chance to buy into a hand where I have a 6 to start.
What is my EV to take this action ?

I think it would be different than what is stated in the table, wouldn't it?

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Quote: RaleighCraps

...
Isn't that how you would calculate the play if I had made the original bet?

In this case, I have no money in play.
I get to see the dealer's up card is a 6.
I then get a chance to buy into a hand where I have a 6 to start.
What is my EV to take this action ?

I think it would be different than what is stated in the table, wouldn't it?

I see your point. The value of 0.157466 would be for the original hand and might include the possibility of splitting to 4 hands. Also, since you get only one of the split hands, I believe your EV would be a little less than 0.5(0.157466) or 0.078733, which is still a good advantage play for you.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Don't buy the 6. According to appendix 9 (6D, S17), 4,2 and 3,3 vs 6 are -EV plays if hitting and even though those aren't one card 6's, I'm guessing that would be -EV also. On the flip side, you may catch a double or resplit opportunity so I could be wrong. Hitting A,5 vs 6 IS +EV because of the ace.

Interesting. It appears that my assumption to buy any hand against a dealer's up 6, may have been a bad assumption.

Had I received a 4,5, or A, I would have doubled.
A resplit was not a possibility, as the max number of 4 was already in play.
Had I received a 3, I would have considered doubling, but not sure if I would have.
A 2 I would have hit, anything else was a Stand.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Don't buy the 6. According to appendix 9 (6D, S17), 4,2 and 3,3 vs 6 are -EV plays if hitting and even though those aren't one card 6's, I'm guessing that would be -EV also. On the flip side, you may catch a double or resplit opportunity so I could be wrong. Hitting A,5 vs 6 IS +EV because of the ace.

I don't believe that 3,3 against 6 is -EV if you can split and double after split. Can someone confirm this?

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I agree with ChesterDog.

Here is a table that shows all the positive EV plays in green. If you can buy them from another player, you should.

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Quote: Wizard

I agree with ChesterDog.

Here is a table that shows all the positive EV plays in green. If you can buy them from another player, you should.

For clarity, here is the Situation:

Dealer has a 6 up card.
I have the opportunity to buy a hand from another player, which only has one card in it. It is a 6.
I will not be allowed to split if a second 6 is dealt to me.

So, if I am looking at this table correctly,
if I end up with a hand total of 5,6,12,13,14,15,16 I would have -EV. Anything else it + EV
I can't have a 5 or a 6, since I already have a 6 card.
So I only get -EV on 12,13,14,15,16.
I cannot split the 6+6=12.

Does this table EV account for doubling at the correct times, or would that be an additional +EV ?

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Here's an easier way to ask the question.

Suppose I KNOW my first card after a shuffle will be a 6 and that the dealers up card is a 6 also. Would I put money on the table to get my second card and play the hand out with no splitting but double on any two cards allowed?

Very nice Ibeatyouraces. That does make it more simple.

And I now know that I am at a disadvantage on
12,13,14,15,16
I cannot have a 2,3,4,5, or 6 total.
I can have a 7,8,9,10,11, or 17, all of which are +EV
And I will double on the 9,10, and 11 total.
I would probably double on the soft 17 as well.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Here's an easier way to ask the question.

Suppose I KNOW my first card after a shuffle will be a 6 and that the dealers up card is a 6 also. Would I put money on the table to get my second card and play the hand out with no splitting but double on any two cards allowed?

Yes. The reason you have +EV (less than 1/2 the split value from the Wiz's table, but not much less), is because you can double after you received the 2nd card. You can't use the hitting 6vs 6 number because it doesn't permit a double.

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I don't think Mike's table answers the question either, because with 4 cards of 13 (A, 3, 4, 5), you can double. Mike's appendix doesn't take that into account.

I think you do the following math:

BJ Appendix 9 (8 decks, stand on 17)

Dealer	Player	Stand	Hit	Double	Probab	Rel. Prob	EV
6	6,A	0.011955	0.128964	0.257928	0.00088828	0.08020051	0.020686
6	6,2	-0.152286	0.117291	0.091955	0.00088828	0.08020051	0.0094068
6	6,3	-0.152012	0.200333	0.3247	0.00088828	0.08020051	0.0260411
6	6,4	-0.151757	0.293104	0.586209	0.00088828	0.08020051	0.0470143
6	6,5	-0.151531	0.339415	0.678829	0.00088828	0.08020051	0.0544424
6	7,6	-0.154993	-0.240766	-0.481532	0.00088828	0.08020051	-0.0124305
6	8,6	-0.155489	-0.303311	-0.606622	0.00088828	0.08020051	-0.0124703
6	9,6	-0.155951	-0.369905	-0.73981	0.00088828	0.08020051	-0.0125073
6	10,6	-0.156548	-0.426814	-0.853629	0.00355312	0.32080204	-0.0502209
6	6,6	-0.154424	-0.172989	-0.345978	0.00041638	0.03759388	-0.0058054
					0.01107574	1	0.0641562

When you add it all up, you get an EV of .064156, which means, yeah, you should take the bet.

VERY Nice boymimbo. Even I can understand your chart. ;-) THANKS

Your welcome. Now back to my regularly scheduled program.

Although I don't think it changes the result since being able to double is the key, I don't know why everyone used the S17 tables to analyze this. LOL at S17 being at a $10 table in North Carolina! They have only had live dealers there for 6 months even!

The governor (Bev Purdue, left) watching the opening of a H17 table in August 2012...lol


Using boymimbo's method for the H17 table, RC's EV actually goes up to 0.0803041581. Dealer busts with 6 up slightly more often in H17 I guess and dealer making 17 is bad for us?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Don't buy the 6. According to appendix 9 (6D, S17), 4,2 and 3,3 vs 6 are -EV plays if hitting and even though those aren't one card 6's, I'm guessing that would be -EV also. On the flip side, you may catch a double or resplit opportunity so I could be wrong. Hitting A,5 vs 6 IS +EV because of the ace.

It is even worse. If he received another 6 he was not allowed to split, as the 4 maximum splits have already occurred.

Quote: SOOPOO

It is even worse. If he received another 6 he was not allowed to split, as the 4 maximum splits have already occurred.

Yes, but it was shown it's still worth taking overall since doubling on soft 17, 9-11 is significantly valuable.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Right. He needs to know the value of a one card 6 vs a 6 up when only hitting and doubling are allowed.

Just to be a trouble maker .... ;-)

Of course, he is going to be dealt a second card to go with his 6. If the only options after that are hitting and doubling, I'd think the value of buying in would be quite low. Personally, I'd need the option of standing.




Yes, that was very picky. I know.

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Yeah, my chart shows that. I took off the columns for splitting 6-6 in my overall calculation. It's still +ve EV.

Pretty sure Renzey runs the numbers on this stuff in Blackjack Bluebook II, for this exact purpose (knowing when to scavenge hands). It's at home though, and I'm at work.