Poll

8 votes (29.62%)
1 vote (3.7%)
1 vote (3.7%)
2 votes (7.4%)
2 votes (7.4%)
8 votes (29.62%)
5 votes (18.51%)
6 votes (22.22%)
5 votes (18.51%)
13 votes (48.14%)

27 members have voted

OnceDear
OnceDear
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October 27th, 2016 at 5:38:09 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I made those bets at Binion's, the Plaza, and Four Queens for $50 or $75 each. All three times they took 2 to 4 and cut me off. They didn't consider the rest on a case by case basis. Something over the computer said, "Don't take any more from this guy." The writer at Binion's told me a story of somebody, I think in week 6 (where we blew it), having a $290,000 winning ticket, which he tried to cash there. Since then William Hill has been more conservative about taking the half point cards.

So, for now, GO JAGS!!!


Good luck guys, and Thanks again to Mike. I've no action in this team play, but can't resist watching out for the result of this first match. Do I understand correctly that Jags have to win this or 7 of the eight cards are dust?

Are the bookies really so scared of these bets? How come? Does that imply that they don't have faith in their own bookmaking skills? If so, why can't they just square of their books? Or do these bets somehow rely on arbitrage or something where the market is not running efficiently?

Go Jags, Go.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 27th, 2016 at 6:23:23 PM permalink
So far this is one of the biggest jokes I have ever seen on a football field... It's actually embarrassing.
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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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October 27th, 2016 at 6:44:25 PM permalink
How much time needs to be left before you guys start pulling your hair out?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RonC
RonC
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October 27th, 2016 at 6:55:51 PM permalink
The Jags are horrid tonight. The game is unwatchable. They'll need a comeback for the ages to even get close...

Sigh...

It did look good...
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 27th, 2016 at 6:57:22 PM permalink
60 yards of offense vs 350 for the titans.... 27-0.

I can't even make a joke about that.
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Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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October 27th, 2016 at 7:02:22 PM permalink
I'm the worst hndicapper but I wouldn't have played the jags with freeplay tonight
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 27th, 2016 at 7:08:17 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I'm the worst hndicapper but I wouldn't have played the jags with freeplay tonight



And that seemingly is a wise decision. Oh well...
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Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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October 27th, 2016 at 7:14:36 PM permalink
Hopefully they come back but the other week is going to haunt everyone for a while
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
djatc
djatc
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October 27th, 2016 at 8:01:19 PM permalink
Game of the century was SEA vs AZ last week. I bet a sizable fortune on that game with Seattle getting points
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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October 27th, 2016 at 8:18:48 PM permalink
Stick a fork in this one...
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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October 27th, 2016 at 8:26:01 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I'm the worst hndicapper but I wouldn't have played the jags with freeplay tonight



It's easy to say that on Monday morning.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 27th, 2016 at 8:33:36 PM permalink
Well we still got one card left to double up haha. There is still a little hope.........

This was painful to watch.
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Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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October 27th, 2016 at 8:37:05 PM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

This was painful to watch.



I didn't watch, fortunately.

Does it give anybody comfort to know we would have won 22-12 if the second quarter didn't count?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 27th, 2016 at 8:43:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I didn't watch, fortunately.

Does it give anybody comfort to know we would have won 22-12 if the second quarter didn't count?



The final score really doesn't express how terrible of an asskicking that game really was.
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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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October 27th, 2016 at 8:44:06 PM permalink
Blame those awful mustard uniforms!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RS
RS
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October 27th, 2016 at 9:05:40 PM permalink
It appears the title of this thread is inaccurate..
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 27th, 2016 at 9:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: RS

It appears the title of this thread is inaccurate..



Lol it ain't over yet... we still got one more.
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mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 27th, 2016 at 10:02:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Blame those awful mustard uniforms!



The announcers classified it as honey mustard to be exact... lol
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OnceDear
OnceDear
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October 28th, 2016 at 3:05:19 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Lol it ain't over yet... we still got one more.

Eggsackerly. That loss was pretty devastating, but it would not be over if they had won and it won't be over till that 8th card is played out.

Good luck on card 8
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Joeman
Joeman
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October 28th, 2016 at 5:19:31 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

The announcers classified it as honey mustard to be exact... lol

I think "baby poop yellow" was the most accurate description I heard.

Quote: mrsuit31

The final score really doesn't express how terrible of an asskicking that game really was.

Jags were lucky Mike Mularkey and Dick LeBeau called off the dogs in the second half, or the final score would have been something like 50-8.

Not only did I have to watch my the Jags embarrass themselves in prime time, and lose out on all those parlays before the weekend even started, but my fantasy opponent this week pretty much has the Jags' offense for his roster. You would have thought that would be good for me, but look @ Bortles' line from last night: 337 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int! Hurns had 97 yds and a touch. Arrrgh, garbage time!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Romes
Romes
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October 28th, 2016 at 7:02:16 AM permalink
A painful game indeed... It's the variance that comes with a 1 night game. I still believe it was a good bet in the long run, but what can you do. Let's get that HUGE $417 win on the last ticket and use that another week? Or just give it to Axel and cash out when it's over a few grand? lol
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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October 28th, 2016 at 7:19:48 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

A painful game indeed... It's the variance that comes with a 1 night game. I still believe it was a good bet in the long run, but what can you do. Let's get that HUGE $417 win on the last ticket and use that another week? Or just give it to Axel and cash out when it's over a few grand? lol



If it hits, I'm in for another round of mayhem...

Lets see how that last card plays out.
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 28th, 2016 at 3:56:44 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks Romes for posting the bets. There were quite a few texts and calls today going back and forth to get everything down and communicated properly.

I made those bets at Binion's, the Plaza, and Four Queens for $50 or $75 each. All three times they took 2 to 4 and cut me off. They didn't consider the rest on a case by case basis. Something over the computer said, "Don't take any more from this guy." The writer at Binion's told me a story of somebody, I think in week 6 (where we blew it), having a $290,000 winning ticket, which he tried to cash there. Since then William Hill has been more conservative about taking the half point cards.

So, for now, GO JAGS!!!



Them writers say all kinds of stuff, the stories keep get bigger and changing. They were jumpy before week 6. The words that show up on the screen are , "he's had enough." I was wondering if that was auto generated, but then my GF got the same message. I asked if it said, "he" or "SHE". She probably wasn't paying that much attention, she was embarrassed getting cut off in front of a bunch of guys. She thought they said, "SHE." A writer told me they are watching via video feed. But again they say a bunch of incorrect stuff. We have some official information and it didn't indicate anything about one big ticket, it was more about accumulative betting.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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October 28th, 2016 at 9:22:41 PM permalink
I would like to express my thanks to Romes, Wiz, Axel, MrSuit31, and anyone else involved in getting these bets in. It sounds like a lot of work. As always, I am fine with any decision being made with the pool money.

Assuming card 8 wins, I am fine with looking for more opportunity to increase the bankroll, through the NFL season, and if nothing has really panned out, we make a final bet on the Superbowl
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
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October 29th, 2016 at 8:36:27 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

If it hits, I'm in for another round of mayhem...

Lets see how that last card plays out.




Agree 100x!
AxelWolf
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October 29th, 2016 at 9:52:16 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

I would like to express my thanks to Romes, Wiz, Axel, MrSuit31, and anyone else involved in getting these bets in. It sounds like a lot of work. As always, I am fine with any decision being made with the pool money.

Assuming card 8 wins, I am fine with looking for more opportunity to increase the bankroll, through the NFL season, and if nothing has really panned out, we make a final bet on the Superbowl

Much thanks, but as it turns out I really didn't do anything but give Romes a hard time.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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October 29th, 2016 at 11:07:15 AM permalink
True, and we may never know if you were really offering your services, or just offering lip service, but I'm betting on the former..........
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
RS
RS
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October 29th, 2016 at 12:08:51 PM permalink
How many bets you put in this morn', Axel?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 29th, 2016 at 1:48:27 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

True, and we may never know if you were really offering your services, or just offering lip service, but I'm betting on the former..........

NO!! I truly was offering and would have done whatever was needed. Even if something came up I would've figured it out and got some help. I had travel plans, my flight was even booked. Unfortunately the casino changed some of their promo rules due to getting beat up the prior weeks. last minute we canceled the trip. When Mike said he was only available on Thursday I personally contacted 3 people who all responded soon after offering their help. When I heard Mike was having trouble getting bets in I contacted him to help but he already figured it out.

I absolutely did offer multiple times to invest the money on some local risk free plays. That offer was 100% genuine. My hands were tied and I wasn't my call.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Pinit2winit
Pinit2winit
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October 29th, 2016 at 7:14:36 PM permalink
I was one of those people and i offered on the forum, Hindsight is 20/20 but i did offer as well....
GWAE
GWAE
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October 30th, 2016 at 10:33:52 AM permalink
Well there goes that. Maybe we should have done a ticket with all the opposites as well.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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October 30th, 2016 at 10:37:55 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Well there goes that. Maybe we should have done a ticket with all the opposites as well.



No hookers and blow now?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
OnceDear
OnceDear
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October 30th, 2016 at 11:31:46 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

No hookers and blow now?


Does this kill your last card?
Quote: ESPN

The Washington Redskins and Cincinnati Bengals played a 27-27 tie Sunday in London as the NFL got its second tied game in a season for the first time since 1997.

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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October 30th, 2016 at 2:07:57 PM permalink
This ended well then. 39 pages of disorganised bickering about what to bet on and when to bet it. Given that a good chunk of you are based in Vegas (the gambling capital of the world) I expected better. Not to mention all the weeks spent trying to organise the bids in the thread where you won the money. It would have been better to have just put it in a high limit slot and hope for a big win.

At least my $25 went to charity and did some good.

Well played guys. Well played.
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 30th, 2016 at 4:49:01 PM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

This ended well then. 39 pages of disorganised bickering about what to bet on and when to bet it. Given that a good chunk of you are based in Vegas (the gambling capital of the world) I expected better. Not to mention all the weeks spent trying to organise the bids in the thread where you won the money. It would have been better to have just put it in a high limit slot and hope for a big win.

At least my $25 went to charity and did some good.

Well played guys. Well played.

But we did accomplished this.....

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
djatc
djatc
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October 30th, 2016 at 7:11:38 PM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

This ended well then. 39 pages of disorganised bickering about what to bet on and when to bet it. Given that a good chunk of you are based in Vegas (the gambling capital of the world) I expected better. Not to mention all the weeks spent trying to organise the bids in the thread where you won the money. It would have been better to have just put it in a high limit slot and hope for a big win.

At least my $25 went to charity and did some good.

Well played guys. Well played.



It's not whether you won or lost your bet, but if you had a good bet - Wizard

- Micheal Scott
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
RS
RS
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October 30th, 2016 at 7:40:58 PM permalink
I had an excellent bet this weekend. Unfortunately 2 teams on my 3 teamer lost, 3 teams on my 4 teamer lost, and 4 teams on my 5 teamer lost. :(
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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October 31st, 2016 at 3:36:21 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

It's not whether you won or lost your bet, but if you had a good bet - Wizard

- Micheal Scott



Here's the thing, I don't know if you had a good bet. I would think the house edge on sports is higher than most bets in the casino.
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 31st, 2016 at 3:56:58 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

Here's the thing, I don't know if you had a good bet. I would think the house edge on sports is higher than most bets in the casino.

Then feel fee to book our action, we will give you a slightly better deal than the casino gives us, as long as you will let us put in as much as we want. There's a reason WH is jumpy and doesn't allow you to get as much action in as you want. Oftentimes they won't even let you get in $10 on a parlay.

It's not just one or two that decline the bets. You can to to book after book and they quickly disallow you from betting. I think you should do some research before you make crazy statements like that.

They lose on theses type of bets most year's.

The group just happened to get in on a bad week.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 31st, 2016 at 5:32:36 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

Here's the thing, I don't know if you had a good bet. I would think the house edge on sports is higher than most bets in the casino.



In general you are correct. But in the specific case of 1/2 point parlay card bets, the Wizard has found an exploitable weakness. Most weeks there are bets that can be made with a positive EV, just with a very high variance.
Joeman
Joeman
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October 31st, 2016 at 6:14:14 AM permalink
I'd like to thank Romes, Wizard, and everyone else involved in trying to make the H & B party happen. It's a shame that all the cards were dead before the 1:00 (10:00) games even kicked off, but I enjoyed the ride. Definitely worth the $0 I invested!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
AxelWolf
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October 31st, 2016 at 6:30:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

In general you are correct. But in the specific case of 1/2 point parlay card bets, the Wizard has found an exploitable weakness. Most weeks there are bets that can be made with a positive EV, just with a very high variance.

With better lines, less teams/legg's and round robining it's not as high variance as one might think. It's just a lot of work. IMO you need to do it as often as possible to get closer to the long run, but it's certainly better than most investments. One can bet just a few dollars per card if they wish. There is also possible entertainment value if you like betting and watching football.

It's especially fun if you and friends have a bunch of live games going into Monday night and you can all get together for a minnie football party.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 31st, 2016 at 6:42:27 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Definitely worth the $0 I invested!

Exactly, let's hope Mike does something similar. I not sure how well WOO/WOV does but occasionally stuff like this shouldn't really affect their bottom line. It certainly got some attention and was fun overall.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Romes
Romes
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October 31st, 2016 at 7:39:54 AM permalink
Sucks that we kinda didn't get to sweat it out with the Jags losing Thursday night, but that'll happen boys. We definitely had good bets but came up on the wrong side of the high variance that is parlays... You'll have that. It was still fun to get everyone together and know that a lot of people from this thread were actively watching, and suffering, along side me Thursday night for our first parlay game =P. Hookers and blow another time boys!

Quote: AxelWolf

Much thanks, but as it turns out I really didn't do anything but give Romes a hard time.

Truth =).

Quote: HeyMrDJ

This ended well then. 39 pages of disorganised bickering about what to bet on and when to bet it. Given that a good chunk of you are based in Vegas (the gambling capital of the world) I expected better. Not to mention all the weeks spent trying to organise the bids in the thread where you won the money. It would have been better to have just put it in a high limit slot and hope for a big win.

At least my $25 went to charity and did some good.

Well played guys. Well played.

"Yeah! Hey all you guys in this thread having fun and putting a slice towards charity... Hey... All of you... F*$* you! STOP HAVING FUN AND BEING A UNITED FORUMS, OMG!!!" lol

Quote: HeyMrDJ

Here's the thing, I don't know if you had a good bet. I would think the house edge on sports is higher than most bets in the casino.

Funny, Mike has free information to read about the 1/2 point parlays that we're doing and their associated edges. There are MANY things inside a casino that are multiples times better than this...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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January 25th, 2017 at 8:18:48 AM permalink
I kinda miss this.... Has everyone figured out the separate team distinction yet?
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