Lucky Lucky
Then recently, with $25 up, 6d for me, 7d for dealer, and a dramatic pause as he comes round again... 8! of spades! Oh well. $750 is a nice reward for my patience (with my wife watching for the first time to boot!). On the drive home we talked about the $2500 the 8 of diamonds would have been worth.
Next time.
Quote: dwheatleyI've been card counting the lucky lucky side bet at my local casino on and off for the past year or so. Haven't done so well, as I watch other people hit 15-1 payoffs when the count is good, and I struggle to stay above water.
Then recently, with $25 up, 6d for me, 7d for dealer, and a dramatic pause as he comes round again... 8! of spades! Oh well. $750 is a nice reward for my patience (with my wife watching for the first time to boot!). On the drive home we talked about the $2500 the 8 of diamonds would have been worth.
Next time.
You're not using a blackjack count for this are you?
How much did you lose before you got $750? If we assume 100 hands per hour, playing 20 minutes means 33 hands, wagering $825 on LL.Quote: dwheatleyI've been card counting the lucky lucky side bet at my local casino on and off for the past year or so. Haven't done so well, as I watch other people hit 15-1 payoffs when the count is good, and I struggle to stay above water.
Then recently, with $25 up, 6d for me, 7d for dealer, and a dramatic pause as he comes round again... 8! of spades! Oh well. $750 is a nice reward for my patience (with my wife watching for the first time to boot!). On the drive home we talked about the $2500 the 8 of diamonds would have been worth.
Next time.
In this session, I was down about $150 when I hit. Overall over my past ~5 sessions, I was probably down close to $1000. I am still down a few hundred counting the lucky lucky, but the variance is significant that I'm not concerned. I've done my own sims, I'm sure I have an edge even flat-betting the main game. Now I'm training a small team for recreational trips to hit the game together. One of my friends also counts, so we will gently count the main game while aggressively hitting lucky lucky.
Quote: dwheatleyI was using System 3 from Dr. Jacobson's site, although it was developed by someone else. The lucky lucky true count was about +5 at the time.
http://apheat.net/2012/10/18/card-counting-the-lucky-lucky-side-bet-update-1/
Quote: UCivanGo get it while you can. Gold Coast casino in Vegas one time by public demand had all LL, then they took all LL off and replaced every table with Lucky Ladies...
The have lucky lucky at every table at my local casino. But the max bet is $25 out at the regular tables and $50 in the high limit room. So, it's pretty worthless as an advantage play.
1.6 units per 100 hands in high-limit DD equals $80 per 100 hands. That's about the same as a $200 max. bet as an ordinary blackjack card counter with substantially greater longevity. But it is certainly not a high-level play.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe have lucky lucky at every table at my local casino. But the max bet is $25 out at the regular tables and $50 in the high limit room. So, it's pretty worthless as an advantage play.
Quote: teliot1.6 units per 100 hands in high-limit DD equals $80 per 100 hands. That's about the same as a $200 max. bet as an ordinary blackjack card counter with substantially greater longevity. But it is certainly not a high-level play.
Yes, but you also have to play blackjack. Their DD rules are not the best (it's actually the worst game in the casino off the top) so you are going to give some of it back unless you can keep two distinct counts in your head. If you can keep two distinct counts in your head, you can do better than this.
Furthermore, their high-limit games have a $5000 max, and their regular games have a $1000 max, so why waste time with this? As usual, it's not about how many units per hour you can win, but about how big those units can be. Put a $500 max on the bet and all of a sudden, I am interested.
I actually analyzed this game briefly to see if I could beat it with just a count of 7's (I can easily keep one side count while I play, and the 7's would help my 14v10 decisions, too) Unfortunately a true count of 7's is not as well-correlated to the bet as I had hoped.
Axiom, what would be the minimum conditions (i.e. requirements) that would interest you to play as an AP? I have a side bet that is very countable, but not profitable (about $20 / hr for a max of $25 bet). I assume AP's are easily discouraged when the max is $25 (not flatted).Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe have lucky lucky at every table at my local casino. But the max bet is $25 out at the regular tables and $50 in the high limit room. So, it's pretty worthless as an advantage play.
I do not disagree with anything you said, but I felt like replying anyway just to affirm your comments.Quote: AxiomOfChoice...
Quote: UCivanAxiom, what would be the minimum conditions (i.e. requirements) that would interest you to play as an AP? I have a side bet that is very countable, but not profitable (about $20 / hr for a max of $25 bet). I assume AP's are easily discouraged when the max is $25 (not flatted).
I think most people just want to choose the thing that makes them the most money (or at least they should). For something to interest me, it would have to make me more money than I could make at blackjack. That is not going to happen with a $25 max bet.
Also, what is the variance on this bet? Side bets tend to have much higher variance than the main game (because the ploppies aren't interested in 1-1 payouts; that's why side bets exist in the first place) so the bankroll requirements are much higher. If you have the proper bankroll to play this game at a $25 max bet, couldn't you make more on the main game?
