ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 3184
February 19th, 2022 at 3:10:55 PM permalink
Seems there's only \$15 tables around and if the table max is \$2K, I could run up to 8 in a row to \$1920 on a reverse Marty, win that, and I'll have \$3,840, which is what I need to jumpstart a bankroll. What would a chart like that look like? I can do that in 256 hands of BJ, right? I'll just skip the splits and double downs, unless a 5 card ≤ 21 hand wins automatically
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
• Posts: 4715
Thanks for this post from:
February 19th, 2022 at 3:36:07 PM permalink
_____________

Jean le Rond d'Alembert was a brilliant mathematician who argued that the probability of a coin landing on heads increased for every time it came up tails

of course, they didn't have computers way back then

other Mathematicians of the day proved him wrong and his reputation suffered

but he still did great things in his field - and was then and is now very highly regarded

his fallacy shows that even very strong minds can be fooled - or if you prefer, make errors

.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 6407
Thanks for this post from:
February 20th, 2022 at 3:15:02 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Seems there's only \$15 tables around and if the table max is \$2K, I could run up to 8 in a row to \$1920 on a reverse Marty, win that, and I'll have \$3,840, which is what I need to jumpstart a bankroll. What would a chart like that look like? I can do that in 256 hands of BJ, right? I'll just skip the splits and double downs, unless a 5 card ≤ 21 hand wins automatically

So much wrong with this. Are you going to walk in with just \$15? Or maybe \$150 or maybe 256x15=\$3840 ? But you imply you don't have 3840 to walk in with.

What if you don't hit your win streak within that first 256 hands? No reason why you should expect to.
If you get your 8 streak after throwing down \$3000, what than? you would barely be up at all? Go for a 9 streak?

Presumably you will get a few shorter win streaks, so maybe you will survive for 300 or so hands.

You would have to be desperate or stupid to 'just skip splits and double downs'.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
• Posts: 134
February 27th, 2022 at 4:01:45 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Dieter

Quote: ChallengedMilly

The idea specifically is just trying to pull off a 9 to 13(depending on what your starting wager is) win streak, yoloing all winnings each round.

You only lose once. Risky strategy, but it should be a heck of a lot of fun if you pull it off.

Best of luck in your endeavours.

So now, if I understand correctly, ChallengeMilly is proposing that lots of players REVERSE martingale and try to hit a xxx wins winning streak by 'letting it ride. He seems to think that no-one would lose more than the would anyway. Hmmmm. But would they only place one initial wager?
CM, Have you ever actually played with a reverse martingale? I have and it is damned depressing.
Let's say you place \$1 initially on an even money wager and you resolve to let it ride till you have, say 256 dollars riding. Your bankroll might look something like this...

To the casual observer, it would look like you are playing with a determination to lose.

Here we see you actually get a winning streak of 8 and have 256 riding, only to see it clawed away.
Unless and until you hit the massive win streak, the decay of your bankroll is relentless. And even if you do hit your win streak, it may not replace the money lost to that point.
The regular Martingale can be a fun way to lose money, with regular bursts of adrenaline. But reverse Marty is as depressing as hell.
Neither enhances your life, on average.

Just for amusement, I repeatedly recalculated until i hit a 13 win streak. That would look like this... If you let it roll for time 14

My idea is say everyone on this forum took our current bankrolls and said "I will pick the best coin flip(plus comps) game in the casino, and one that allows table limits to be at least 500,000(so it needs to be a game you can request access to high limit play areas), that out of the 200 or so forum members at least a handful would become millionaires over night. The math seems to work out that enough people going into a casino and yoloing a decent sum would accomplish this.

The problems are numerous though with pulling this off. It's basically impossible to get hundreds of people to agree to such a thing, and when I tried this strategy solo about 8 months ago my wife and I stopped when I was several thousand up due to the anxiety of the losing. Which is another pitfall of this strategy.
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 13347
February 27th, 2022 at 4:09:06 AM permalink
You might want to read up on the followers of Swami Pastrami. He had his flock do something similar.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 6407
February 27th, 2022 at 4:47:01 AM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

My idea is say everyone on this forum took our current bankrolls and said "I will pick the best coin flip(plus comps) game in the casino, and one that allows table limits to be at least 500,000(so it needs to be a game you can request access to high limit play areas), that out of the 200 or so forum members at least a handful would become millionaires over night. The math seems to work out that enough people going into a casino and yoloing a decent sum would accomplish this.

You maths is pants \$:o)
It's a zero sum game, comps aside.
Money won't be coming from nowhere, and on average it won't be coming from the casino either.

So take your nominal 200 members and make a handful, say three, of them millionaires. The other 197 will each have donated their bankroll of 3,000,000/198 = \$15151 each.
No need for any casino involvement. we could just have a raffle and persuade 200 members to chip in their \$15k for a ticket.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 13347
February 27th, 2022 at 6:45:19 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ChallengedMilly

My idea is say everyone on this forum took our current bankrolls and said "I will pick the best coin flip(plus comps) game in the casino, and one that allows table limits to be at least 500,000(so it needs to be a game you can request access to high limit play areas), that out of the 200 or so forum members at least a handful would become millionaires over night. The math seems to work out that enough people going into a casino and yoloing a decent sum would accomplish this.

You maths is pants \$:o)
It's a zero sum game, comps aside.
Money won't be coming from nowhere, and on average it won't be coming from the casino either.

So take your nominal 200 members and make a handful, say three, of them millionaires. The other 197 will each have donated their bankroll of 3,000,000/198 = \$15151 each.
No need for any casino involvement. we could just have a raffle and persuade 200 members to chip in their \$15k for a ticket.

Who will hold the money?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
• Posts: 3314
February 27th, 2022 at 7:19:57 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

No need for any casino involvement. we could just have a raffle and persuade 200 members to chip in their \$15k for a ticket.