Profiting from win streaks scenario
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If any of the forum experts could help with understanding the below scenario,
There are 10,000 computer generated bettors betting on a coin flip 13 times.
On average there should be 1 of those bettors on win streak of 13 in a row after 13 bets.
After 12 bets, there is only 1 bettor on a win streak of 12 in a row.
(The way that I concluded that 1 bettor should be on a 13 win streak (out of 10,000 bettors) is that if 1 bettor made 13 bets in a row, they would have a 1 in 8192 chance of winning 13 in a row. So instead, I took 10,000 bettors and each of them made 13 bets in a row. And on average 1 of those 10,000 bettors should bet on a 13 win streak after 13 bets.)
I can see the real time results and win streaks of all the bettors and I can see what each bettor's next selection is.
If I only bet when after 12 bets and there is only 1 bettor left on a win streak of 12 in a row. And I copy this bettors next selection. On average, should this bettor next bet:
-win 100% of the time, to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row?
-win 50%, given that heads or tails each have a 50% chance of winning?
-or would the result just be what it is and the law of averages are just a guideline?
Though over time wouldn't the results revert to the mean average? And if it were to revert to the mean, would it revert to 100% wins (to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row), or would it revert to 50% wins (given that heads or tails each have a 50% chance of winning?)
Given that I can see the win loss data & win streak data of all 10,000 bettors real time, know what each bettor next selection is, and if I only make a bet when there is only 1 bettor left on a 12 in streak, is there any way I can use this information to make a profit?
Thanks in advance for any answers,
Quote: 564568
-win 100% of the time, to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row?
This is an misinterpretation of the law of large numbers and is false.
The correct answer is that you have a 50% chance of being correct. (I'm also assuming it's a fair coin).
Quote: 564568Hi,
If any of the forum experts could help with understanding the below scenario,
There are 10,000 computer generated bettors betting on a coin flip 13 times.
On average there should be 1 of those bettors on win streak of 13 in a row after 13 bets.
After 12 bets, there is only 1 bettor on a win streak of 12 in a row.
Is there though? On average, over many sets of 10,000 betters, the average number of survivors after 12 bets will be two (point four) and after 13, there will be one, but your group may have none having survived or you may have a few. We could calculate the probability of your set having one survivor, and it's not a certainty.
But having watched your group and having been lucky enough to have one survivor, then the probability of you having that one survivor is 100%... Because you have.
He now faces a fair coin flip with 50% probability of success. No other previous probability of his success matters.
After the outcome of each coin flip, you have 10,000 outcomes and a new number of survivors. At that moment, you need to recalculate all your probabilities, because what is past is past and has happened, regardless of probability.Quote:(The way that I concluded that 1 bettor should be on a 13 win streak (out of 10,000 bettors) is that if 1 bettor made 13 bets in a row, they would have a 1 in 8192 chance of winning 13 in a row. So instead, I took 10,000 bettors and each of them made 13 bets in a row. And on average 1 of those 10,000 bettors should bet on a 13 win streak after 13 bets.)
From having that one survivor, You copy a guy with 50% probability of success. The law of averages is more than guidance. You use it to calculate the probability of a future event based on what will TEND to happen on average OVER INFINITE sets of similar observations. You are only observing one set, so your mileage may vary.Quote:I can see the real time results and win streaks of all the bettors and I can see what each bettor's next selection is.
If I only bet when after 12 bets and there is only 1 bettor left on a win streak of 12 in a row. And I copy this bettors next selection. On average, should this bettor next bet:
-win 100% of the time, to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row?
-win 50%, given that heads or tails each have a 50% chance of winning?
-or would the result just be what it is and the law of averages are just a guideline?
Quote:
Though over time wouldn't the results revert to the mean average? And if it were to revert to the mean, would it revert to 100% wins (to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row), or would it revert to 50% wins (given that heads or tails each have a 50% chance of winning?)
Reversion to the mean is often misunderstood: the proportion would tend towards 50% BUT the numeric difference between heads and tails WOULD NOT tend towards zero. It would in fact tend to increase. No contradiction as i explain in another post.
Yes. You can sell your prediction on YouTube, to an idiot. Other than that. No.Quote:Given that I can see the win loss data & win streak data of all 10,000 bettors real time, know what each bettor next selection is, and if I only make a bet when there is only 1 bettor left on a 12 in streak, is there any way I can use this information to make a profit?
Quote:Thanks in advance for any answers,
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Quote: 564568Given that I can see the win loss data & win streak data of all 10,000 bettors real time, know what each bettor next selection is, and if I only make a bet when there is only 1 bettor left on a 12 in streak, is there any way I can use this information to make a profit?
Thanks in advance for any answers,
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Math aside, it sounds like past posting to bet on a 13-streak once you're 12 trials in.
I would expect lousy odds and steep vig.
LOL. He's not betting on a13 streak at 8192 : 1. He's betting on a one win streak at even money. He just drank a lot of complimentary drinks while he sat waiting.Quote: DieterQuote: 564568Given that I can see the win loss data & win streak data of all 10,000 bettors real time, know what each bettor next selection is, and if I only make a bet when there is only 1 bettor left on a 12 in streak, is there any way I can use this information to make a profit?
Thanks in advance for any answers,
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Math aside, it sounds like past posting to bet on a 13-streak once you're 12 trials in.
I would expect lousy odds and steep vig.
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Quote: 564568I can see the real time results and win streaks of all the bettors and I can see what each bettor's next selection is.
If I only bet when after 12 bets and there is only 1 bettor left on a win streak of 12 in a row. And I copy this bettors next selection. On average, should this bettor next bet:
-win 100% of the time, to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row?
-win 50%, given that heads or tails each have a 50% chance of winning?
-or would the result just be what it is and the law of averages are just a guideline?
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Technically, the second one and the third one are the same. The probability of 13 heads in a row is 1/8192, but so is the probability of 12 heads in a row followed by a tail.
Note that if "the law of averages" applied universally, then there "should be" two of the 10,000 bettors with 12 wins in a row, and one "should" bet one way while the other bets the other - which one do you follow?
Bit of a thread hijack there!Quote: pwcrabbIn a coin toss contest, alert gamblers should emulate MDAWG and his efforts toward conquering Baccarat. He has disclosed multiple bread crumb clues regarding his approach.
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MDawg has never said he can beat a coin flip contest.
Dropping breadcrumbs is littering and can be un-hygenic. It's discouraged.
Tried what on a gambling trip?? Wagered on a coin flip?? or waited till you saw a dozen even money events land one way before starting to martingale?*Quote: ChallengedMillyI recently tried this on a gambling trip, I did gain several thousand dollars before i gave up the streak. I do believe there are some weird hidden factors to this idea that need to be explored more. The problem I think is that ultimately when you hit that 30k mark you just cannot help but not want to keep risking it. Most people stop way before that.
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There are no weird hidden factors and no point in exploring more. Unless there is a god and he loves helping you to stiff the casino. In which case set maths aside and pray or do good works for charity.
What the devil are you talking about "when you hit that 30k mark you just cannot help but not want to keep risking it."? Do you mean you might feel uneasy having martingaled to the point of wagering $32k to win a dollar?
Martingale, not mentioned so far in this thread. It's a fun and often exciting way to wager. Does zero to benefit your bankroll, but equally does nothing to dent it. If you are being shot at, at the airport in a warzone and the ticket to escape is $1000 and you have only $999, then Martingale is a great way to make the fare and avoid certain death.
Definitely tempted hear to push my luck with the mods and make some wisecrack. You know, about mocking or not mocking and how it's hard to be sure. But I'm going to give you a pass for helping keep Fitz-James O'Brien's work alive.Quote: pwcrabbIn a coin toss contest, alert gamblers should emulate MDAWG and his efforts toward conquering Baccarat. He has disclosed multiple bread crumb clues regarding his approach.
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Quote: OnceDearTried what on a gambling trip?? Wagered on a coin flip?? or waited till you saw a dozen even money events land one way before starting to martingale?*Quote: ChallengedMillyI recently tried this on a gambling trip, I did gain several thousand dollars before i gave up the streak. I do believe there are some weird hidden factors to this idea that need to be explored more. The problem I think is that ultimately when you hit that 30k mark you just cannot help but not want to keep risking it. Most people stop way before that.
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There are no weird hidden factors and no point in exploring more. Unless there is a god and he loves helping you to stiff the casino. In which case set maths aside and pray or do good works for charity.
What the devil are you talking about "when you hit that 30k mark you just cannot help but not want to keep risking it."? Do you mean you might feel uneasy having martingaled to the point of wagering $32k to win a dollar?
Martingale, not mentioned so far in this thread. It's a fun and often exciting way to wager. Does zero to benefit your bankroll, but equally does nothing to dent it. If you are being shot at, at the airport in a warzone and the ticket to escape is $1000 and you have only $999, then Martingale is a great way to make the fare and avoid certain death.
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So you are saying that in addition to all its other benefits, playing the martingale may make you immortal?
Quote: billryanSo you are saying that in addition to all its other benefits, playing the martingale may make you immortal?
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Only if you can keep doubling after a loss.
the casino has table min and max no martin gale would live very long enough to close out a profit
good question challenged milly who in there right mind would risk all that for 1 unit? *shakes head*
and even if your right about the streak (which you may not be depending as previous poster said milage will vary) its still a 50/50 which no casino will offer
enuff said but keep going to the casino hopin for that 13 streak im sure u will find it im sure any math expert will say by time you do find will be 3 standard deviations behind always on the crap end of the stick
Quote: frotobagindolarThis thread is a joke right? you wont even find a 50/50 in a casino my god im suprised the wizard allows this betting system section to exist!
the casino has table min and max no martin gale would live very long enough to close out a profit
good question challenged milly who in there right mind would risk all that for 1 unit? *shakes head*
Frotobagindolar.
This section exists to keep all the nonsense related to betting systems in one place. We do a service to novice, ignorant, foolish, and just plain naive system proponents by debunking what might harm their finances.
You might say, why tolerate system discussion at all? Well, it's a forum for gamblers. We like to help them be educated gamblers, but they don't have to have an edge to be welcome here.
Systems can be hypothetical and for simpler minded gamblers, we let them try their systems against hypothetical coin toss scenarios. Of course, WE KNOW that the even money wagers in real casinos are not fair 50:50 propositions.
I say "You might say".... But in your case, you won't say, because your duplicate account is now banned. Goodbye.
Rule 11
Quote: frotobagindolarThis thread is a joke right? you wont even find a 50/50 in a casino
The outcome of a Pai Gow Poker hand is 50/50.
Quote: rsactuaryQuote: frotobagindolarThis thread is a joke right? you wont even find a 50/50 in a casino
The outcome of a Pai Gow Poker hand is 50/50.
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Not where I play. The bank wins ties. Unless you are able to bank 50% of the time you will lose more hands than you win.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: rsactuaryQuote: frotobagindolarThis thread is a joke right? you wont even find a 50/50 in a casino
The outcome of a Pai Gow Poker hand is 50/50.
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Not where I play. The bank wins ties. Unless you are able to bank 50% of the time you will lose more hands than you win.
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This is why it is so important to bet more on the hands you will win, and less on the hands you will lose.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: rsactuaryQuote: frotobagindolarThis thread is a joke right? you wont even find a 50/50 in a casino
The outcome of a Pai Gow Poker hand is 50/50.
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Not where I play. The bank wins ties. Unless you are able to bank 50% of the time you will lose more hands than you win.
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Aha.. you are correct!
it's simply that if enough peoplr were convinced to pull it off and see it through, we'd end up with a lot of new millionaires at every casino that would take that kind of action, and we'd still have the same amount of losers(minus the new winners) who haven't lost anything additional than what they normally lose.Quote: OnceDearTried what on a gambling trip?? Wagered on a coin flip?? or waited till you saw a dozen even money events land one way before starting to martingale?*Quote: ChallengedMillyI recently tried this on a gambling trip, I did gain several thousand dollars before i gave up the streak. I do believe there are some weird hidden factors to this idea that need to be explored more. The problem I think is that ultimately when you hit that 30k mark you just cannot help but not want to keep risking it. Most people stop way before that.
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There are no weird hidden factors and no point in exploring more. Unless there is a god and he loves helping you to stiff the casino. In which case set maths aside and pray or do good works for charity.
What the devil are you talking about "when you hit that 30k mark you just cannot help but not want to keep risking it."? Do you mean you might feel uneasy having martingaled to the point of wagering $32k to win a dollar?
Martingale, not mentioned so far in this thread. It's a fun and often exciting way to wager. Does zero to benefit your bankroll, but equally does nothing to dent it. If you are being shot at, at the airport in a warzone and the ticket to escape is $1000 and you have only $999, then Martingale is a great way to make the fare and avoid certain death.
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The idea specifically is just trying to pull off a 9 to 13(depending on what your starting wager is) win streak, yoloing all winnings each round.
Quote: ChallengedMilly
The idea specifically is just trying to pull off a 9 to 13(depending on what your starting wager is) win streak, yoloing all winnings each round.
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You only lose once. Risky strategy, but it should be a heck of a lot of fun if you pull it off.
Best of luck in your endeavours.
So now, if I understand correctly, ChallengeMilly is proposing that lots of players REVERSE martingale and try to hit a xxx wins winning streak by 'letting it ride. He seems to think that no-one would lose more than the would anyway. Hmmmm. But would they only place one initial wager?Quote: DieterQuote: ChallengedMilly
The idea specifically is just trying to pull off a 9 to 13(depending on what your starting wager is) win streak, yoloing all winnings each round.
link to original post
You only lose once. Risky strategy, but it should be a heck of a lot of fun if you pull it off.
Best of luck in your endeavours.
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CM, Have you ever actually played with a reverse martingale? I have and it is damned depressing.
Let's say you place $1 initially on an even money wager and you resolve to let it ride till you have, say 256 dollars riding. Your bankroll might look something like this...
To the casual observer, it would look like you are playing with a determination to lose.
Here we see you actually get a winning streak of 8 and have 256 riding, only to see it clawed away.
Unless and until you hit the massive win streak, the decay of your bankroll is relentless. And even if you do hit your win streak, it may not replace the money lost to that point.
The regular Martingale can be a fun way to lose money, with regular bursts of adrenaline. But reverse Marty is as depressing as hell.
Neither enhances your life, on average.
Just for amusement, I repeatedly recalculated until i hit a 13 win streak. That would look like this... If you let it roll for time 14
It doesn't work in blackjack as the sneaky God of BJ also has a sense of humor and you can be certain he will give you a pair of eights on your fifth or sixth hand.
It isn't the least bit dull and you can the extra adrenaline of having people cheer you on after your third or fourth win.
It also takes considerable discipline and the ability to laugh at oneself. Say you get that long-desired six-hand win streak and after winning $800, you drop back to your initial $25 bet. You have to accept that the inevitable BJ that will follow will only pay you $37.50 instead of the $1200 had you stuck out the progression one more hand.
Contrary to what some say, I find the reverse martingale a great way to lose money and have some fun.
I respect that. Fact is, since neither Marty nor reverse Marty have any effect on our bankroll, the only difference can be what's going on in our heads. I prefer the ramp and plummet of the Marty bankroll chart to the steady downward ramp, with occasional spike, of reverse marty.Quote: billryanContrary to what some say, I find the reverse martingale a great way to lose money and have some fun.
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True what you say about Martying or reverse Martying BJ. With that, you just have to have the side bankroll to cover any splits or dozens. I get to some real '5h1t or bust' hands martying, say 5, 10, ... Where I get double after split to 4 hands. That usually ends my session one way or another.
Quote: OnceDearI respect that. Fact is, since neither Marty nor reverse Marty have any effect on our bankroll, the only difference can be what's going on in our heads. I prefer the ramp and plummet of the Marty bankroll chart to the steady downward ramp, with occasional spike, of reverse marty.Quote: billryanContrary to what some say, I find the reverse martingale a great way to lose money and have some fun.
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True what you say about Martying or reverse Martying BJ. With that, you just have to have the side bankroll to cover any splits or dozens. I get to some real '5h1t or bust' hands martying, say 5, 10, ... Where I get double after split to 4 hands. That usually ends my session one way or another.
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Betting systems don’t affect your house edge, but they most certainly do impact your bankroll. They change the average bet size, which impacts both EV and variance of outcomes.
All of which is fine if you are doing it for fun.
Quote: billryanI don't know about the math, but using either a martingale or a reverse martingale certainly seems to help one lose their entire bankroll better than flat betting does. It also makes you more desirable to the opposite sex. L.L.C.J., if you know what I mean.
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So that's what I've been doing wrong...
𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙖𝙡𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙣𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙙𝙞𝙚
and the same for all its' many wonderful variations - reverse, Labouchere, D'Alembert, Oscar's Grind, etc.__________for many it's a thing of beauty and intrigue
.𝐋𝐎𝐍𝐆 𝐋𝐈𝐕𝐄 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆𝐀𝐋𝐄
.
Reverse Marty is pretty close to flat betting table min, so will make your bankroll last quite well. It's just relentlessly depressing watching your chips slip away, one by one, interspersed with moments of hope as you let it ride on a streak which probably won't last long.Quote: billryanI don't know about the math, but using either a martingale or a reverse martingale certainly seems to help one lose their entire bankroll better than flat betting does. It also makes you more desirable to the opposite sex. L.L.C.J., if you know what I mean.
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LLCJ?
Jean le Rond d'Alembert was a brilliant mathematician who argued that the probability of a coin landing on heads increased for every time it came up tails
of course, they didn't have computers way back then
other Mathematicians of the day proved him wrong and his reputation suffered
but he still did great things in his field - and was then and is now very highly regarded
his fallacy shows that even very strong minds can be fooled - or if you prefer, make errors
.
So much wrong with this. Are you going to walk in with just $15? Or maybe $150 or maybe 256x15=$3840 ? But you imply you don't have 3840 to walk in with.Quote: ChumpChangeSeems there's only $15 tables around and if the table max is $2K, I could run up to 8 in a row to $1920 on a reverse Marty, win that, and I'll have $3,840, which is what I need to jumpstart a bankroll. What would a chart like that look like? I can do that in 256 hands of BJ, right? I'll just skip the splits and double downs, unless a 5 card ≤ 21 hand wins automatically
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What if you don't hit your win streak within that first 256 hands? No reason why you should expect to.
If you get your 8 streak after throwing down $3000, what than? you would barely be up at all? Go for a 9 streak?
Presumably you will get a few shorter win streaks, so maybe you will survive for 300 or so hands.
You would have to be desperate or stupid to 'just skip splits and double downs'.
My idea is say everyone on this forum took our current bankrolls and said "I will pick the best coin flip(plus comps) game in the casino, and one that allows table limits to be at least 500,000(so it needs to be a game you can request access to high limit play areas), that out of the 200 or so forum members at least a handful would become millionaires over night. The math seems to work out that enough people going into a casino and yoloing a decent sum would accomplish this.Quote: OnceDearSo now, if I understand correctly, ChallengeMilly is proposing that lots of players REVERSE martingale and try to hit a xxx wins winning streak by 'letting it ride. He seems to think that no-one would lose more than the would anyway. Hmmmm. But would they only place one initial wager?Quote: DieterQuote: ChallengedMilly
The idea specifically is just trying to pull off a 9 to 13(depending on what your starting wager is) win streak, yoloing all winnings each round.
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You only lose once. Risky strategy, but it should be a heck of a lot of fun if you pull it off.
Best of luck in your endeavours.
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CM, Have you ever actually played with a reverse martingale? I have and it is damned depressing.
Let's say you place $1 initially on an even money wager and you resolve to let it ride till you have, say 256 dollars riding. Your bankroll might look something like this...
To the casual observer, it would look like you are playing with a determination to lose.
Here we see you actually get a winning streak of 8 and have 256 riding, only to see it clawed away.
Unless and until you hit the massive win streak, the decay of your bankroll is relentless. And even if you do hit your win streak, it may not replace the money lost to that point.
The regular Martingale can be a fun way to lose money, with regular bursts of adrenaline. But reverse Marty is as depressing as hell.
Neither enhances your life, on average.
Just for amusement, I repeatedly recalculated until i hit a 13 win streak. That would look like this... If you let it roll for time 14
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The problems are numerous though with pulling this off. It's basically impossible to get hundreds of people to agree to such a thing, and when I tried this strategy solo about 8 months ago my wife and I stopped when I was several thousand up due to the anxiety of the losing. Which is another pitfall of this strategy.
Quote: ChallengedMillyMy idea is say everyone on this forum took our current bankrolls and said "I will pick the best coin flip(plus comps) game in the casino, and one that allows table limits to be at least 500,000(so it needs to be a game you can request access to high limit play areas), that out of the 200 or so forum members at least a handful would become millionaires over night. The math seems to work out that enough people going into a casino and yoloing a decent sum would accomplish this.
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You maths is pants $:o)
It's a zero sum game, comps aside.
Money won't be coming from nowhere, and on average it won't be coming from the casino either.
So take your nominal 200 members and make a handful, say three, of them millionaires. The other 197 will each have donated their bankroll of 3,000,000/198 = $15151 each.
No need for any casino involvement. we could just have a raffle and persuade 200 members to chip in their $15k for a ticket.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: ChallengedMillyMy idea is say everyone on this forum took our current bankrolls and said "I will pick the best coin flip(plus comps) game in the casino, and one that allows table limits to be at least 500,000(so it needs to be a game you can request access to high limit play areas), that out of the 200 or so forum members at least a handful would become millionaires over night. The math seems to work out that enough people going into a casino and yoloing a decent sum would accomplish this.
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You maths is pants $:o)
It's a zero sum game, comps aside.
Money won't be coming from nowhere, and on average it won't be coming from the casino either.
So take your nominal 200 members and make a handful, say three, of them millionaires. The other 197 will each have donated their bankroll of 3,000,000/198 = $15151 each.
No need for any casino involvement. we could just have a raffle and persuade 200 members to chip in their $15k for a ticket.
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Who will hold the money?
Quote: OnceDearNo need for any casino involvement. we could just have a raffle and persuade 200 members to chip in their $15k for a ticket.
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I may have a line on non-winning tickets at a substantial discount.
It's still -EV, but you'll lose less...
