Odds of Chops vs Streaks in Baccarat
I'm looking for people who can help compute the probability of chops vs streaks for a given standard 8 deck shoe in baccarat. I understand there maybe variables that needs to be factored for every known bet result, But in general what is the % of chops vs streaks, let's say for 72 games average per deck.
Hope someone can do the math.
Thank you!
Quote: poli2k01I understand there maybe variables that needs to be factored for every known bet result, But in general what is the % of chops vs streaks, let's say for 72 games average per deck.
Hope someone can do the math.
Thank you!
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Would you care to define what you mean by "chops" and "streaks"?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/33023-streak-odds/#post824106
and here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/33023-streak-odds/#post827333
and you might want to post in that thread, since that sort of discussion is ongoing. You have to define exactly how many you're talking about - a chop of 10, a chop of 8, a streak of 8, a streak of 16, etc. and where in the shoe it lands too, I suppose.
The columns are counts of player runs, bank runs, and "chop runs" (e.g. a chop run of 4 is player, bank, player, bank, bank or bank, player, bank, player, player)
Ties do not end streaks (e.g. player, tie, tie, player, player, tie, bank is a run of 3 player wins)
Streaks did not carry over from one shoe to the next
This has been edited - originally the Bank and Player column labels were switched
| Length | Bank | Player | Chop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longest Run | 32 | 32 | 37 |
| 25 or more | 861 | 441 | 624 |
| 24 | 881 | 422 | 601 |
| 23 | 1,719 | 922 | 1,278 |
| 22 | 3,578 | 2,026 | 2,663 |
| 21 | 7,044 | 4,080 | 5,384 |
| 20 | 14,122 | 8,604 | 10,821 |
| 19 | 28,321 | 17,561 | 21,837 |
| 18 | 56,237 | 36,120 | 44,676 |
| 17 | 112,565 | 74,826 | 90,666 |
| 16 | 227,133 | 153,761 | 184,771 |
| 15 | 455,637 | 317,318 | 375,668 |
| 14 | 912,320 | 655,145 | 761,840 |
| 13 | 1,827,916 | 1,347,810 | 1,549,419 |
| 12 | 3,666,352 | 2,778,971 | 3,145,696 |
| 11 | 7,339,457 | 5,728,212 | 6,389,447 |
| 10 | 14,702,534 | 11,785,685 | 12,977,672 |
| 9 | 29,434,934 | 24,252,217 | 26,339,926 |
| 8 | 58,934,654 | 49,912,351 | 53,480,170 |
| 7 | 117,913,628 | 102,650,379 | 108,477,794 |
| 6 | 235,942,353 | 211,147,024 | 220,261,351 |
| 5 | 472,047,727 | 434,178,253 | 446,401,461 |
| 4 | 944,160,375 | 892,560,532 | 906,166,747 |
| 3 | 1,888,125,462 | 1,834,548,284 | 1,836,063,228 |
| 2 | 3,775,181,807 | 3,770,293,136 | 3,725,304,974 |
| 1 | 7,546,976,361 | 7,746,574,863 | 7,545,398,575 |
Quote: poli2k01Thank you, this is close to what I'm looking for, but is there a way to compute average chops vs streaks PER shoe?
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You need to explain what you mean by "average streak" and "average chop." Do you mean the average length of a streak, and the average length of a run of chops?
Based on the 800 million shoes, I get:
Average player run 1.9475
Average bank run 2.0002
Average run of chops 1.9732
Quote: poli2k01Also, interestingly why is player streaks always higher than banker streaks in your table given banker has a higher winning % based on drawing rules?
Er, probably because the Player and Bank columns were switched - this has been fixed.
And pay commission for the privilegeQuote: ChumpChangeSo if I'm typing up a new betting progression for Baccarat, I'll be 39% more likely to hit 14 Bankers vs 14 Players in a row.
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Quote: OnceDearAnd pay commission for the privilegeQuote: ChumpChangeSo if I'm typing up a new betting progression for Baccarat, I'll be 39% more likely to hit 14 Bankers vs 14 Players in a row.
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I, for one, am shocked - SHOCKED, I SAY - to learn that wagers with a higher probability of winning pay out at lower odds.
Based on the 800 million shoes, I get:
Average player run 1.9475
Average bank run 2.0002
Average run of chops 1.9732
@ThatDonGuy
Average streak = consecutive player wins, e.g. P,P or P,P,P or P,P,P,P,P
Average chop = consecutive sequence of chopped wins, e.g. P,B,P,B = 4 chops, B,P,B = 3 chops, P,B,P,B,P,B = 6 chops
Please confirm if your numbers above is referring to my definition here.
Thank you for running the simulation for me. Very much appreciated!
Quote: poli2k01You need to explain what you mean by "average streak" and "average chop." Do you mean the average length of a streak, and the average length of a run of chops?
Based on the 800 million shoes, I get:
Average player run 1.9475
Average bank run 2.0002
Average run of chops 1.9732
@ThatDonGuy
Average streak = consecutive player wins, e.g. P,P or P,P,P or P,P,P,P,P
Average chop = consecutive sequence of chopped wins, e.g. P,B,P,B = 4 chops, B,P,B = 3 chops, P,B,P,B,P,B = 6 chops
Please confirm if your numbers above is referring to my definition here.
Your definition is correct, although they can include ties.
