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unJon
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February 12th, 2024 at 1:03:00 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

"Both teams will have an opportunity to score" - the reason he restated is because that statement doesn't imply exactly the same as "both teams will have an opportunity to possess" although I suppose both statements could be misconstrued. Is an opportunity to intercept or take possession of the ball after a fumble, both of which are always on the table, the same as an opportunity to possess?

In any case, if some members of the '49ers didn't realize that they were not playing sudden death, they might have been not pushing as hard as they got closer to the end zone, and were assuming that even a field goal will end it.

And what about the '49ers coach, why did he direct his team to pick offense after winning the overtime coin toss? It does seem to make sense that the greater advantage would be to let the other team try and then know exactly what is needed to win or at least keep the game going. The only advantages I can perceive to going first are being less tired, and also the element of panic that would be instilled in the other team if they scored a touchdown.
link to original post



Most importantly that if you score first and the other team then goes and ties the game, you get the next possession and it’s sudden death. That’s a point most commentators have missed. (KC says they would have gone for 2 so the third possession irrelevant in a TD/TD situation, but not in a FG/FG or no score / no score situation.)

It’s a bit complicated whether kicking or receiving is better. I haven’t heard any analytics reported about it.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MDawg
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February 12th, 2024 at 1:18:32 PM permalink
Well then it might've just come down to that overtime penalty that sent the 49'ers 10 yards back and prevented an easier touchdown.

Then the Chiefs would have had to get a two point conversion, I read something about that they had envisioned such a play if necessary.

But basically, if the 49'ers had gotten 7 points ahead during OT instead of just 3, the odds would have been greatly in their favor to win.

And this analysis, from a not a Football fan who doesn't follow the sport.


I am not sure, based on the way the game was going, if either side could have assumed that there would be any scoring at all in the first possession round of OT.
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tuttigym
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February 13th, 2024 at 10:12:21 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: MDawg

49ers players say they didn't know Super Bowl overtime rules

49ers’ bizarre OT coin flip decision comes back to bite them in Super Bowl 2024

I heard what the ref said about "both teams will have an opportunity to possess" and realized that Sudden Death wasn't in play, but still it seemed odd especially in that the referee himself got it wrong at first when he said "both teams will have an opportunity to score." Also that comment about "unless the first team is as a defensive score," obviously some of the players didn't know what exactly that meant (neither did I).
link to original post



He did not get it wrong when he said both teams will have an opportunity to score. He got it right.

The fact that the players could not figure out if the first score is a defensive score (a safety or pick 6 or fumble returned for TD) that the game is over is just indicative of the generally low intellect of many football players.
link to original post


Have YOU ever seen an NFL team's playbook? It is as thick as a Grey's Anatomy. The players have to memorize it and more. Your "from the hip" assessment is just wrong and .......

tuittigym
SOOPOO
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February 13th, 2024 at 11:04:24 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: MDawg

49ers players say they didn't know Super Bowl overtime rules

49ers’ bizarre OT coin flip decision comes back to bite them in Super Bowl 2024

I heard what the ref said about "both teams will have an opportunity to possess" and realized that Sudden Death wasn't in play, but still it seemed odd especially in that the referee himself got it wrong at first when he said "both teams will have an opportunity to score." Also that comment about "unless the first team is as a defensive score," obviously some of the players didn't know what exactly that meant (neither did I).
link to original post



He did not get it wrong when he said both teams will have an opportunity to score. He got it right.

The fact that the players could not figure out if the first score is a defensive score (a safety or pick 6 or fumble returned for TD) that the game is over is just indicative of the generally low intellect of many football players.
link to original post


Have YOU ever seen an NFL team's playbook? It is as thick as a Grey's Anatomy. The players have to memorize it and more. Your "from the hip" assessment is just wrong and .......

tuittigym
link to original post



I’m not saying it takes NO mental ability to play football. An offensive guard has a full week to learn the let’s say 80 possible plays. He has NO OTHER job. He in actuality has a specific task per play.
I always get a kick out of ‘false starts’. The QB has informed the team that the center will snap the ball after he says ‘seven out’. He says ‘craps’ and the guy moves…
SOOPOO
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February 13th, 2024 at 11:05:58 AM permalink
I need MDawg to get back in a casino so I don’t have to argue with Lilred about the intellect of NFL players…
DRich
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February 13th, 2024 at 12:42:29 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I need MDawg to get back in a casino so I don’t have to argue with Lilred about the intellect of NFL players…



I wouldn't argue about the intellect of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Myron Rolle.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
tuttigym
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February 13th, 2024 at 2:14:30 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: MDawg

49ers players say they didn't know Super Bowl overtime rules

49ers’ bizarre OT coin flip decision comes back to bite them in Super Bowl 2024

I heard what the ref said about "both teams will have an opportunity to possess" and realized that Sudden Death wasn't in play, but still it seemed odd especially in that the referee himself got it wrong at first when he said "both teams will have an opportunity to score." Also that comment about "unless the first team is as a defensive score," obviously some of the players didn't know what exactly that meant (neither did I).
link to original post



He did not get it wrong when he said both teams will have an opportunity to score. He got it right.

The fact that the players could not figure out if the first score is a defensive score (a safety or pick 6 or fumble returned for TD) that the game is over is just indicative of the generally low intellect of many football players.
link to original post


Have YOU ever seen an NFL team's playbook? It is as thick as a Grey's Anatomy. The players have to memorize it and more. Your "from the hip" assessment is just wrong and .......

tuittigym
link to original post



I’m not saying it takes NO mental ability to play football. An offensive guard has a full week to learn the let’s say 80 possible plays. He has NO OTHER job. He in actuality has a specific task per play.
I always get a kick out of ‘false starts’. The QB has informed the team that the center will snap the ball after he says ‘seven out’. He says ‘craps’ and the guy moves…
link to original post


Well, I guess that is more prep than an anesthesiologist monitoring his gas passing during an appendectomy.

For me, MDawgs' one liner "session" reports --- boring.

tuttigym
MDawg
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February 13th, 2024 at 6:45:53 PM permalink
Boring? Not a bit of it!

They are consuming the night and day thoughts and efforts of at least two people right now! as all of those session reports are being added up.

To quote Shakespeare, Julius Caesar (well, approximately anyway), "Boring should be made of sterner stuff."
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MDawg
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February 13th, 2024 at 6:48:17 PM permalink
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
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February 25th, 2024 at 10:06:46 AM permalink
This is an interesting article about Anthony Farrer, “The Timepiece Gentleman.” Capitalizing on the massive run up due to scarce availability of luxury timepieces during the pandemic, this convicted felon ran a sort of ponzi scheme where he took in millions of dollars worth of watches, millions in cash from investors, sold watches and sometimes paid back consignees and investors, but mostly pocketed all proceeds to fuel a life of excess.

The time bandit The rise and fall of America's flashiest dealer in luxury watches

He drove a Lamborghini, partied heavily in high priced bottle service nightclubs, gambled hard in Vegas, and for a while rented the most expensive apartment in Los Angeles, to the tune of $90,000. a month. He documented much of the lavish lifestyle online, including on YouTube.

Along the way numerous online people including on Reddit dug up his criminal past, which wasn’t really all that substantial anyway mostly alcohol related offenses, records of his having been a gay escort of sorts, and tried to warn people that he was bad news. Few listened, and the money kept pouring in.

When it all came crashing down by summer 2023, he posted some YouTube videos about how he had let alcohol and excess in general get the better of him, and vowed to pay everyone back.

He never got a chance, was arrested on federal fraud charges in October 2023, and has been in custody since awaiting a Fall 2024 trial date.

His website remains up:

https://thetimepiecegentleman.com



Breaking News: The Timepiece Gentleman Saga Continues. Anthony Farrer Posts YouTube Video Admitting Wrongdoings and $5 Million USD in Debt.

Beverly Hills watch dealer under scrutiny after items vanish

‘Spending people’s money’: Beverly Hills luxury watch dealer arrested by FBI in alleged Ponzi scheme
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MDawg
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February 26th, 2024 at 5:12:06 PM permalink
I stopped taking niacin (I was taking Niaspan which is a time release version of flush niacin) about a week ago after these reports came out.

High levels of niacin linked to heart disease, new research suggests

Niacin has long been a public health darling. But an excess could be bad for the heart, study suggests

Niacin, or vitamin B3, has long been a U.S. public health darling to the point that it is added, by law, to cereal products. But a new study published Monday in Nature Medicine points to a potentially concerning effect of an excess of the vitamin: It may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease.

The study looked into two cohorts of patients without active heart disease, 60% of whom were treated with statins, and found a strong association between a metabolic product of excess niacin and an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events such as a heart attack or stroke. One in four of the people in the study had excess niacin, which doubled their risk of major cardiovascular events to levels comparable with diabetes or a previous heart attack.

I suggested that my doctor put me instead on bempedoic acid

Statin alternative significantly reduces heart disease deaths, new study finds

but my doctor pointed out that I don't need any of that stuff as my cholesterol and triglycerides aren't even high. I believe the doctor had signed off on the Niaspan because it's just a vitamin, essentially, whether I needed it or not.

So then I pointed out, well what if they go up now that I'm not taking Niaspan? So we will revisit this on down the line and re-evaluate.
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MDawg
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February 27th, 2024 at 8:46:31 AM permalink
About to head back to southern Cal....



(Yes it's cold here, DRich.)
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DRich
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February 27th, 2024 at 9:29:17 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

About to head back to southern Cal....



(Yes it's cold here, DRich.)
link to original post



That looks miserable. It is 80 degrees here and it looks like winter is over. It is supposed to be above 80 every day for the next 10 days.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
MDawg
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February 29th, 2024 at 11:22:06 AM permalink
Recently watched "Poor Things" and the Willem Dafoe character Godwin in it is referred to as "God" in an obvious double entendre.

In it Bella often refers to herself in the third person, as does MDawg sometimes.
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MDawg
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February 29th, 2024 at 12:25:13 PM permalink
All that matters is that in the history of this forum no one has provided much, if any evidence of anything. Except MDawg.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
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February 29th, 2024 at 1:08:48 PM permalink
Got out just in time! Batten down the hatches, entrust the home back to the local who watches over it...and depart!

Monster blizzard takes aim at Tahoe, Mammoth: ‘Serious life-threatening’ snow, wind forecast
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
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February 29th, 2024 at 3:01:31 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

All that matters is that in the history of this forum no one has provided much, if any evidence of anything. Except MDawg.
link to original post



I think I’ve posted hundreds of specific +EV opportunities. Since this forum is not about me, or any one person for that matter, I plan on posting no evidence of my actual bets.

The way to show how great you are is not by disparaging the rest of us.

Seriously, do you think I need to post ‘evidence’ for my sports betting claims (whatever they actually are?) so that they are believed by the members here?

You are a lawyer. If your claim (the SUM of your trip reports) that you’ve made ‘some such’ $5 million from the casino (not counting the presents, tickets, gift cards, RFB, etc..), the evidence you posted is NOTHING BUT CIRCUMSTANTIAL. It may be proof of something, but NOTHING in the ‘evidence’ you provided us is, well, evidence of a SUM win of that magnitude.

I just don’t get you.
MDawg
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February 29th, 2024 at 3:18:17 PM permalink
You must not have even read what I posted then. And how are actual video of me logged into my player accounts, navigating to the pages where the WIN statements are posted, where the WINs more or less corroborate the exact sums claimed along the way for those years, "circumstantial." Plus lots of other evidence.

Before I was witnessed playing and winning some people were crowing about how only "future" evidence of winning mattered. Once MDawg's ability to win was corroborated in the present and now, some started crowing about only "past results" matter. Which is it? 😅

Anyway, bottom line is you and almost all the others have posted zilch in the way of evidence. I've posted plenty.
Your stand on this seems to be, "If I'm doing what anyone else could do, then I must be doing it and don't need to prove it." Or, "If I explain how it could be done, then you must assume that I am doing it." Fine, but the fact remains - most such people around here have posted zilch in the way of actual evidence.

You don't even seem to understand what it takes to get your hands on $100K chips regularly in a casino that offers such high denomination chips, there is at least a little more to it than just showing up with $100K.


Just take my handle, multiple it by the expected house edge, you find that I should have lost pushing -$30,000,000. in my lifetime by now. So, either I am made of money, or I do have some edge that allows me to win. As others too know, the average life of a high roller no matter how much he has (look at Terrance Watanabe) is two years. For someone to play flat out the way I do, so many days a year, either he has beyond massive resources or...he's winning.
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gordonm888
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February 29th, 2024 at 8:57:03 PM permalink
Quote: Lovethedawg


---snip----
link to original post



Nuked for personal insult and for being a sock (apparently of a banned member, Boz.)
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Mar 1, 2024
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
MDawg
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March 1st, 2024 at 7:27:00 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Got out just in time! Batten down the hatches, entrust the home back to the local who watches over it...and depart!

Monster blizzard takes aim at Tahoe, Mammoth: ‘Serious life-threatening’ snow, wind forecast
link to original post


The plan was always to leave end of February anyway.

Southern California isn't exactly burning with heat right now either, in the mid 50s right now, cloudy and supposed to rain tomorrow.

I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
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March 2nd, 2024 at 5:12:48 AM permalink
Wynn lawsuit accuses Fontainebleau of ‘unhealthy obsession’ with resort, poaching employees

The lawsuit lists dates and names regarding Fontainebleau recruitment efforts, even coming to the Wynn property as paying guests to gain access to the workers they sought to persuade to jump ship.

Haven't even been to Fountainebleu yet, but via their Tier Match I am Fontainebleau Rewards Royal.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
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March 2nd, 2024 at 8:56:58 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Wynn lawsuit accuses Fontainebleau of ‘unhealthy obsession’ with resort, poaching employees

The lawsuit lists dates and names regarding Fontainebleau recruitment efforts, even coming to the Wynn property as paying guests to gain access to the workers they sought to persuade to jump ship.

Haven't even been to Fountainebleu yet, but via their Tier Match I am Fontainebleau Rewards Royal.
link to original post



Do you believe Wynn has a valid case? Seems to me there should be nothing illegal in what Fountainebleu has done.
MDawg
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March 2nd, 2024 at 11:33:00 AM permalink
The article mentions ongoing issues, where Fontainebleau was continuing to recruit Wynn employees as far back as in "mid-2022, a year and a half before Fontainebleau opened its doors," notwithstanding that it knew that Wynn employees "had non-competition agreements with Wynn that would preclude them from working at Fontainebleau for at least a year."

The parties came to some agreement where Fontainebleau agreed not to do it anymore.

Apparently this led to the filing of a lawsuit by Wynn against Fontainebleau in mid 2022, which was in turn settled via a non-solicitation covenant that "was to remain in effect through July 8, 2023."

Apparently, that non-solicitation was violated, which led to the current lawsuit.

Perhaps the lawsuit alleges violation of that non-solicitation covenant. It could be filed under a simple breach of contract or, some kind of "tortious interference" theory, where Wynn is alleging that Fontainebleau is interfering with Wynn's contracts with its employees.

I'd have to look at it. The article mentions District court but this could mean either the Eighth Judicial District Court in Nevada, which is a state court in Las Vegas, or the Nevada District Court, which is federal. If both entities are Nevada based it would probably just be a state action and I don't see any kind of federal question.

I know Fontainebleau has been very aggressive with trying to recruit players from other properties - both I and my friends / associates have been contacted, and other high rollers I know. Offering up front suite comp'ed stays and such, which is pretty routine in this business. For known players new casinos will always take a chance.

As far as recruiting employees, this always happens. I know of a lot of top people at Fontainebleau who came from other majors on the Strip, and when Resorts World Vegas was getting ready to open, some of the pit bosses and hosts went over to RW. Anytime a new resort opens they are in need of experienced personnel.
Last edited by: MDawg on Mar 2, 2024
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MDawg
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March 8th, 2024 at 7:30:23 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I'm negotiating some terms that might make it hard to decline returning for at least another challenger champion bout. Just got the call this morning that my offer terms had gotten greenlighted as far as senior VP so far. It's just more of the same, but slightly different.

MDawg vs. the casinos!
link to original post


Still working on this. It may or may not 🤩 be at one of the NEW Majors on the Strip.

But one of the OLD Majors may be pulling the rug out from below me.... 🧐

Hoping on, at worst, a changing of the guard.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
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March 20th, 2024 at 6:27:20 AM permalink
Looking promising.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Dieter
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March 20th, 2024 at 8:49:56 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Looking promising.
link to original post



... and to think, they call me inscrutable.
May the cards fall in your favor.
MDawg
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March 21st, 2024 at 5:16:33 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

He was playing six decks "only" apparently. 😁


Nico Zoographic

Nicolas “Nicky the Greek” Zoographic is a famous baccarat player who lived during the early twentieth century. He was a member of a group of gamblers who toured European casinos. They made a fortune playing high-stakes games of baccarat, and Zoographic was renowned for his memorization skills and mathematical abilities. His memory allowed him to memorize every card in a baccarat game and alerted his team when the odds were in their favor.

During the early 20th century, Zoographic was a member of the Greek Syndicate, which controlled all baccarat tables. He had an amazing memory, and he was able to remember the order of three dozen cards when played with six decks. Zoographic also had an amazing ability to gauge fluctuations in odds in favor of the bank, and he was able to make the best bets according to that information.
link to original post


If you believe that knowing everything about what cards have been played and what are left makes a difference then it is possible to use one's brain or a computer to derive an edge.

This is not to say that this is the only Baccarat advantage play. There are more mundane but even more effective ones unrelated to perfect memorization.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
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March 22nd, 2024 at 10:40:13 AM permalink
I suppose retail has fallen on hard times, including in Beverly Hills.

RIP Beverly Hills: Video shows high-end retail stores now shuttered amid LA crime wave

Rodeo Drive is still there, with most of its stores intact,


But when I was at the men's Saks the other day - maybe six customers in the entire store. There were enough uniformed guards though!

Battistoni, Chanel, next to the old Barney's (which is the new women's Saks for about a month now),



all shuttered.




And then another sign of the times, at the Beverly Wilshire,


this display case, that used to contain Breguets,




now - empty.



Over all, whether at Caesars Vegas, Wynn, or any retail anywhere, display cases outside of a store (by outside I mean physically separated from the store and outside of it) no longer contain high end merchandise. Some items for display here and there, but nothing high ticket. There used to be this case outside the old Wynn watch store (not the Rolex store, across from it), that contained hundreds of thousands in watches, with nothing but plexiglass to protect it from scoundrels.
Last edited by: MDawg on Mar 22, 2024
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Dieter
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March 22nd, 2024 at 11:39:09 AM permalink
I think I find empty window displays less concerning than armed guards in front of window displays.
Even then, the heavy body armor got my attention more than the shotgun.
May the cards fall in your favor.
MDawg
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March 22nd, 2024 at 1:36:03 PM permalink
Yes, the stores at least the ones that are located inside hotels or malls are still putting high end merchandise in the window displays. Just don't see it any more, detached from the store, in any of those cases such as you find around inside hotels in various unmanned locations. Those cases no longer contain high end watches or jewelry, just mostly men's or women's accessories, or non-precious metal fashion items.

It is the best deterrent I suppose - just don't leave anything out worth stealing.

Lot of stores have followed suit with this for many years now too, the highest ticket item you see out in electronic stores these days is maybe $300., most everything else that might be carried out easily is locked up in the back.

I saw this video online

Suspect steals multiple devices from California Apple store

no one bothers him while he's ripping over 40 iPhones from their displays, and then walks out right past a parked (but empty) police cruiser.

He was identified and caught within a week though, and tied to another such theft as well.

Masked thief arrested after allegedly being filmed brazenly stealing 50 iPhones on display in California Apple store

These guys don't know that the display items at Apple stores may be deactivated and tracked once removed from the store?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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March 28th, 2024 at 3:40:15 PM permalink
Trying to claim that no one will lose money, no one lost money, didn't work for Sam. Trump tried it without success at his New York civil fraud trial too.

"The defendant's assertion that FTX customers and creditors will be paid in full is misleading, it is logically flawed, it is speculative," Judge Kaplan said. "A thief who takes his loot to Las Vegas and successfully bets the stolen money is not entitled to a discount on the sentence by using his Las Vegas winnings to pay back what he stole."

Disgraced crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years for FTX fraud

During the dot com era a CEO of one of the public companies used to raise the payroll when desperate at the Vegas blackjack tables. Eventually though the company went under.

PurchasePro CEO guilty, faces prison

Worked better for FEDEX though. In the early days of FedEx, founder Fred Smith had to go to extraordinary efforts to keep the company afloat. After a crucial business loan was denied, he took the company's last $5,000 to Las Vegas and won $27,000 on blackjack to cover the company's $24,000 fuel bill. It kept FedEx alive for one more week.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
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