Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
• Posts: 676
August 25th, 2021 at 7:35:59 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I'm only going to state facts.

The fatal flaw in the Fibonacci is there must be two back-to-back wins to have a winning sequence. Sometimes this will work out for you but other times you will find it leads to your destruction.

For example, it's possible after just two losing games you wind up winning nearly fifty percent of the next dozen spins and still lose.

I haven't seen you describe how your system proposes to overcome this.

Let's take six losses followed by a win.

1+1+2+3+5+8 = 20 units lost.

Next spin in the sequence is 13 units. You win! Great but you haven't profited yet. You are still 7 units down.

I call that the primary win.

If you just wager the same, 13 units again and win, fantastic you have profited 6 units. But you could literally spend half an hour on a chop for that secondary win (lose, 13, win 13, lose 13, win 13) and then lose two in a row and you are literally back in the Fibonacci sequence only starting way in the middle.

You could go aggressive and make the secondary wager the next in the Fibonacci. So win 13, wager 21. If you get two back to back wins you have really good profit, 14 units. But lose and you find yourself sinking deeper and closer to table max.

Or you could go conservative and reduce your secondary to the prior level. Win 13, wager 8. With that your profit is one unit (21 units minus the 20 you lost). With a chop table you may do well but any other time you are spending a long time for minimum return.

At any rate, you will find the times you win twice in a row will greatly be outweighed by the times you don't.

thanks DOz. I appreciate the discussion. I recently became aware of how the initial chopping back and forth in the sequence, can deceptively keep the bettor behind.

I'm working on a solution but acknowledge that there may not be one (if naysayers can cope with that?)!
Note: WOV considers all betting systems worthless. All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do.
darkoz

Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 8726
August 25th, 2021 at 7:44:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

thanks DOz. I appreciate the discussion. I recently became aware of how the initial chopping back and forth in the sequence, can deceptively keep the bettor behind.

I'm working on a solution but acknowledge that there may not be one (if naysayers can cope with that?)!

Fair enough. You will have to go on this journey of discovery on your own.

I did it myself.

My prediction:. In about twenty years you will be having this same conversation with someone else trying to break the Fibonacci sequence, telling them of how it doesn't work and having them refuse to believe you.

Humanity is doomed to repeat it's mistakes.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19815
August 26th, 2021 at 1:48:39 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

I believe the forum's Block Thread feature will allow you to perform this function, should you so choose.

Thank you; enjoy the day.

I think the only time I had blocked threads was when I first started, I don't remember why, but I think it was mostly non-gambling-related threads, I only did that for a short period of time and said screw it, ​I haven't done so since, nor have I ever blocked a person.

That being said, I choose not to.

I'm a big boy, I can ignore somthing or someone if I wish. I don't need some computer function to aid me. Blocking stuff is for wimps.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19815
August 26th, 2021 at 1:53:19 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Ah, ha, ha, ha. Tell us AW, what is the pattern for someone telling the truth then?

I can't explain it to someone that can't grasp a simple +EV -EV concept. I probably can't even explain to someone who can. There are far too many variables, it's one of those things, you just know it when you see it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19815
August 26th, 2021 at 1:58:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

I'm working on a solution but acknowledge that there may not be one (if naysayers can cope with that?)!

Of course you are, as I predicted.

The only solution is to accept you can't beat a -EV game no matter what system you use.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
• Posts: 2000
August 26th, 2021 at 2:06:14 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Blocking stuff is for wimps.

I agree. There used to be a lot more duesies under off-topic before DT came to be. Blocking stuff formerly offered more benefit than it now does, but the feature still exists.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
• Posts: 676
August 26th, 2021 at 3:01:23 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Dieter

I believe the forum's Block Thread feature will allow you to perform this function, should you so choose.

Thank you; enjoy the day.

I think the only time I had blocked threads was when I first started, I don't remember why, but I think it was mostly non-gambling-related threads, I only did that for a short period of time and said screw it, ​I haven't done so since, nor have I ever blocked a person.

That being said, I choose not to.

I'm a big boy, I can ignore somthing or someone if I wish. I don't need some computer function to aid me. Blocking stuff is for wimps.

if I was a naysayer on this site, or I didn't expose myself too much, I may not use the block function either.

Saying it's about manhood doesn't cut it. We're all sensitive, otherwise we're cold/hard.

Again, if believers on WOV were permitted to take down naysayers to the extent naysayers are believers, you may not be so tough!
Note: WOV considers all betting systems worthless. All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do.
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
• Posts: 676
August 26th, 2021 at 3:56:22 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I can't explain it to someone that can't grasp a simple +EV -EV concept. I probably can't even explain to someone who can. There are far too many variables, it's one of those things, you just know it when you see it.

I could probably grasp EV just as much as the average EV grasper. It's not the only thing I want to do in life. Hence, I don't know how long it will take.

But, the other concept about EV is how well it encapsulates a winning/losing betting system. You may take the generally accepted mathematical point of view for granted. I don't. That doesn't mean I won't eventually accept it. I want to evaluate it in my own time and in my own way.

That's not being stubborn! Evaluating the maths is something that some here seem to think I'm not permitted the luxury! Who's got the problem?
Note: WOV considers all betting systems worthless. All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do.
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
• Posts: 2000
August 26th, 2021 at 4:48:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Again, if believers on WOV were permitted to take down naysayers to the extent naysayers are believers, you may not be so tough!

Naysayers generally use science, mathematics, and logic to address the believers.
I am aware of nothing which would keep believers from doing the same.

If a system works reliably, surely there is a way to measure its performance and understand its reason for success.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
• Posts: 676
August 26th, 2021 at 5:32:19 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Naysayers generally use science, mathematics, and logic to address the believers.
I am aware of nothing which would keep believers from doing the same.

If a system works reliably, surely there is a way to measure its performance and understand its reason for success.

Agreed, but tying everything down to one simple formula isn't necessarily the answer. Do you think that it's impossible that there may be rare gamblers beating the casinos legitimately, by using a system? If not, do you think they're gonna share that system with others?

There are a lot of posters here who think anyone keeping a system to themselves, is outright wrong! I don't, and it's got nothing to do with not having something legitimate. Again, who's shortsighted when it comes to that?

Do you think MDawg's a fraud?

I'm enjoying our discussion Dieter 👍
Last edited by: Wellbush on Aug 26, 2021
Note: WOV considers all betting systems worthless. All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do.