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OnceDear
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OnceDear
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:53:27 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I put my money in mutual funds and made 65.28% last year and 19.81% over the last 3 months. You're doing something wrong.


ZCore13

He might not be. He made an average profit of almost 10% on his trades. He didn't say how long his positions were open. Might have been 10% per year: Might have been 10% per day or 10% per minute.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Oseberg
Oseberg
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:57:01 PM permalink
Unfortunately, I do not get 10% per day - then I would not be here. After my latest refining we are talking about that profit number (10%) every 3-4 months, but consistantly. So with further improvement I am aiming for 1.2 - 1.5 times that...
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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February 12th, 2021 at 2:06:40 PM permalink
Quote: Oseberg

Ok, looked at the Kelly criterion and as I have percentage profit on average but number of trades with profit is only 30% it might not work. However, with your explanation I can use the average expected percented profit and do some heavy duty simultations by randomizing my 8,000 trades thosuands of times - will do.

Actually, I believe there was an error in my simplification, because I was thinking staright even money wagers. AIUI, each wager would be (bankroll * average advantage)/(odds of success)
So, if only 1 in 10 trades succeeds but that success pays as X for 1, then each bet would be 1/10 the size of what I originally said.
I.E. You really probably bet very small each time.
The random nature of successes and failures gives a lumpy shape to the bankroll chart, but it's your best hope of maximising success and minimising Risk of ruin.

Note, There are far better mathematicians than me. So just take this as a starting point and DYOR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 12th, 2021 at 2:10:10 PM permalink
Quote: Oseberg

Unfortunately, I do not get 10% per day - then I would not be here. After my latest refining we are talking about that profit number (10%) every 3-4 months, but consistantly. So with further improvement I am aiming for 1.2 - 1.5 times that...



Iím going to hope to let you in for a soft landing. Making 10% every 3-4 months THIS YEAR has not been hard. Sort of mirrored the general stock market rise. So if your algorithm did that THIS year, it may be nothing better than a RANDOM stock picker, (which I am!).

I started a thread called WoV Stock Portfolio. You can follow it if it interests you. You are also free to start your own thread that we can follow. Or just tag along on mine!

Welcome to the forum!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 12th, 2021 at 2:19:19 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I put my money in mutual funds and made 65.28% last year and 19.81% over the last 3 months. You're doing something wrong.




if you don't mind my asking - what mutual fund was that?

the S&P made 18.40% last year including dividends

65% is very high - it must have been one that had a high beta



.
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
MDawg
MDawg
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February 12th, 2021 at 2:22:46 PM permalink
First of all, you should take advice only from an actual stock trader, not someone commenting or warning you "in theory." And comparing trading to the stock market lately is not a fair comparison in that the bull market has roared unusually well for some years now. Under normal times, a GOOD trader may make a lot more than any mutual fund or S&P 500 holder.

I trade stocks almost every day.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/34418-mdawgs-investments/48/#post795265

Here is the problem with your idea:

-Today, just for example, I did 8 trades (open 4, close 4) for a total $1700. profit. I was taking it easy today and did just 100 share lots. 100 shares x 17 points, $1700.
In theory, I could have done 1000 share lots, and booked $17,000. Yesterday I did some 250 share lots.

(I trade stocks with per share prices ranging from around 500 to around 3500.)

That is what you are getting at I believe - that if you made X amount of money trading small lots, you could make 10X trading ten times larger lots, correct?

That's fine, the thought occurs to me all the time, and in fact, I did used to trade much larger lots, more along the lines of 1000 shares at a time.

The theory of "bet big, to win big" works fine for all of the trades where the open and close happens on schedule and for the targeted number of points. For nearly all of my trades, I could be doing 1000 share lots and making 10X more money. I have the buying power to buy 1000 shares of all of the stocks I trade as easily as 100 shares.

And even when the stock moves against me, it's not a big deal, I just average in another 100 shares, doesn't even begin to tap into my total buying power. Or another 100 shares. Or 200. Or more. No problem.

-However - there comes the inevitable trade where the bottom drops out, and you're faced with a stock that is moving heavily against you. For SUCH trades, if your lot size is 10X larger, you must either have the buying power to average in a number more of 1000 share lots to lower your basis, or you have to give up and take a loss. A big loss if your lot sizes are very large.

And that's where the problem comes - if you're not able AND WILLING to average in a number of additional lots if the stock moves against you, you will end up losing big on the trades that move against you, such that it will wipe out whatever profits you booked on the prior trades.

So, this concept of betting bigger to win bigger works - until it doesn't.

And that's not even to figure in the emotional difference between averaging in, in my case, just a few hundred more grand per lot, versus three million per lot, big difference - even if I'm able to do it, will I be able to do it, and not let emotion start driving my trades? It's easy for me to buy 100 sh of AMZN, then maybe another 100, and then maybe another 100, and then sell 300 shares at once. But if I buy 300, and the bottom drops out, and I have to average in another six HUNDRED shares, it starts getting into real money and perhaps beyond my comfort zone for what was intended as a quick fifteen minute trade.

So, to summarize:

Stick to trade lot sizes with which you are comfortable and able to average in many additional lots if necessary, to lower your basis.

In case you haven't guessed, I don't stop loss. I do not book any losers. If I end up behind, I just average in more shares and ride it out well beyond a day trade. This partly has to do with the stocks I trade, which all tend to hit new ATHs regularly - they always come back. But still, I might not feel comfortable trading that way with no stop loss if I were trading much larger lots.

My not bothering with a stop loss also has to do with how good I am at the trading to begin with, the modest amount of points I try to book per trade, and that very very few of my trades end up losing past a day trade anyway - happens not very often at all.

So, yes, in theory, if you're doing well, you should be able to book 10X by trading 10X larger lots - but...this also applies to the losers, where, unless you're willing and able to keep them going, may wipe out most of your gains.
Last edited by: MDawg on Feb 12, 2021
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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February 12th, 2021 at 3:34:30 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

if you don't mind my asking - what mutual fund was that?

the S&P made 18.40% last year including dividends

65% is very high - it must have been one that had a high beta



.



Fidelity Growth Company Fund (FDGRX)

65.28% 1 year return
26.83% 3 year return


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 12th, 2021 at 4:00:32 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Fidelity Growth Company Fund (FDGRX)

65.28% 1 year return
26.83% 3 year return


ZCore13




thanks

really nice pick - fantastic for a mutual fund
it's crushing the indexes




*
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
Oseberg
Oseberg
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February 12th, 2021 at 4:23:57 PM permalink
Hey - this thread is about my original question and not on whatever you want to post about funds etc. Reply to me or get your own thread. Please
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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February 12th, 2021 at 4:31:45 PM permalink
Quote: Oseberg

Hey - this thread is about my original question and not on whatever you want to post about funds etc. Reply to me or get your own thread. Please

Hi Oseberg,
Please understand that threads do sometimes go a bit off topic. We moderators permit it for a while, but let us do the rebukes. You wouldn't want to put me out of a job would you?

$:o)
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

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