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FastEddie
FastEddie
Joined: Aug 29, 2021
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MDawg
September 11th, 2021 at 6:32:43 PM permalink
I like the Broncos a lot. #1 Defense in the red zone last 2 years. Get Von Miller back. Improved at quaterback. Corner back. Receivers, running backs. Special teams a big ? !
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
MDawg
September 11th, 2021 at 6:39:55 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Well, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."

As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).

  • link to original post



    A few thoughts:

    1) This promotion does not let you, but just for general awareness, the best EV for promo chips/bets where you donít keep the bet, just the winnings, is on long shots. So the biggest underdog ML if they let you.

    2) Axelís point is valid that you could but the promo bet on Packers -3.5 and place a cash bet on Saints +3.5 and lock up a guaranteed amount of money. Boring.

    3) Is your bet on the current lines at the book or the lines on that piece of paper? If latter, then just go to the sports book on Sunday and place the promo bet on whichever current line deviates the most from the paper line you were offered. For example if the current line tomorrow is Packers minus -4.5 and you can bet the -3.5 line, thatís EV. Note that thereís a Wizard page to help estimate how much EV depending on whether key numbers like 3, 4 and 7 are crossed.

    4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.

    5) Bet under 41.5 in the Giants/Broncos game.
    The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
    Marcusclark66
    Marcusclark66
    Joined: Mar 26, 2020
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    Thanks for this post from:
    MDawg
    September 11th, 2021 at 6:42:55 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    Well, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."

    As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).

  • link to original post



    Winners don't have to know everything MDawg.

    Winners don't know everything MDawg!

    Oh yeah, I forgot, how come the cage cashiers must ask. "Sorry sir, before I am able to cash those chips you have to tell me how you were able to win them".

    And also, oh never mind, that's enough.
    Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
    Ace2
    Ace2
    Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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    AxelWolf
    September 11th, 2021 at 7:07:51 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    Well, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."

    As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).

  • link to original post

    For pro sports betting you donít need to know anything. The lines are nearly dead on accurateÖyou will win 50% of -110 bets over the long term

    There are some very small imbalances, like betting NFL dogs, but you probably need to bet thousands of games before realizing that effect
    Itís all about making that GTA
    MDawg
    MDawg
    Joined: Sep 27, 2018
    • Threads: 35
    • Posts: 5699
    September 11th, 2021 at 7:29:30 PM permalink
    Quote: unJon

    Quote: MDawg

    Well, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."

    As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).

  • link to original post



    A few thoughts:

    1) This promotion does not let you, but just for general awareness, the best EV for promo chips/bets where you donít keep the bet, just the winnings, is on long shots. So the biggest underdog ML if they let you.

    2) Axelís point is valid that you could but the promo bet on Packers -3.5 and place a cash bet on Saints +3.5 and lock up a guaranteed amount of money. Boring.

    3) Is your bet on the current lines at the book or the lines on that piece of paper? If latter, then just go to the sports book on Sunday and place the promo bet on whichever current line deviates the most from the paper line you were offered. For example if the current line tomorrow is Packers minus -4.5 and you can bet the -3.5 line, thatís EV. Note that thereís a Wizard page to help estimate how much EV depending on whether key numbers like 3, 4 and 7 are crossed.

    4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.

    5) Bet under 41.5 in the Giants/Broncos game.
  • link to original post


    5) You like that better than straight win for Green Bay?

    4) Is a good point.

    3) These were the lines as of this morning. Might be different by tomorrow.
    Last edited by: MDawg on Sep 11, 2021
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    MDawg
    MDawg
    Joined: Sep 27, 2018
    • Threads: 35
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    September 11th, 2021 at 7:29:51 PM permalink
    I didn't even advance in the BlackJack tournament. I lost every hand in a row until I was blown out. I lost hands where others won. 😄 I should have been flat bet minimum betting, might have given me a chance to advance.

    But in the big Baccarat tournament I did advance, will continue tomorrow.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
    Joined: Oct 10, 2012
    • Threads: 158
    • Posts: 21101
    September 11th, 2021 at 7:49:29 PM permalink
    Quote: Marcusclark66

    Quote: MDawg

    Well, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."

    As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).

  • link to original post



    Winners don't have to know everything MDawg.

    Winners don't know everything MDawg!

    Oh yeah, I forgot, how come the cage cashiers must ask. "Sorry sir, before I am able to cash those chips you have to tell me how you were able to win them".

    And also, oh never mind, that's enough.
  • link to original post

    You bring nonsense into a thread that actually has some merit and members can help guide him.
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    MDawg
    MDawg
    Joined: Sep 27, 2018
    • Threads: 35
    • Posts: 5699
    September 11th, 2021 at 7:51:11 PM permalink
    Duplicate.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    unJon
    unJon
    Joined: Jul 1, 2018
    • Threads: 14
    • Posts: 4018
    September 11th, 2021 at 7:55:47 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    Quote: unJon

    Quote: MDawg

    Well, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."

    As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).

  • link to original post



    A few thoughts:

    1) This promotion does not let you, but just for general awareness, the best EV for promo chips/bets where you donít keep the bet, just the winnings, is on long shots. So the biggest underdog ML if they let you.

    2) Axelís point is valid that you could but the promo bet on Packers -3.5 and place a cash bet on Saints +3.5 and lock up a guaranteed amount of money. Boring.

    3) Is your bet on the current lines at the book or the lines on that piece of paper? If latter, then just go to the sports book on Sunday and place the promo bet on whichever current line deviates the most from the paper line you were offered. For example if the current line tomorrow is Packers minus -4.5 and you can bet the -3.5 line, thatís EV. Note that thereís a Wizard page to help estimate how much EV depending on whether key numbers like 3, 4 and 7 are crossed.

    4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.

    5) Bet under 41.5 in the Giants/Broncos game.
  • link to original post


    5) You like that better than straight win for Green Bay?

    4) Is a good point.

    3) These were the lines as of this morning. Might be different by tomorrow.
  • link to original post



    5) I do personally. But I donít claim to be a winning NFL bettor so take it with a big grain of salt.
    The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
    MDawg
    MDawg
    Joined: Sep 27, 2018
    • Threads: 35
    • Posts: 5699
    September 11th, 2021 at 9:06:37 PM permalink
    I understand. What you all are getting at, which makes perfect sense, is that since it a freeroll bet to just go with what might make some actual money versus a pittance.

    Not necessarily that one bet might win versus another, but that might as well try to get something out of this.

    AxelWolf''s idea is good too, in a different way.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

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