Are people that naive to believe that there is a system to beat the casino games?

Quote: gamerfreak

It depends on your definition of a system.

Positive expectation play exists and many folks here make good money. But none of that fits the common definition of systems betting.

Even using the traditional definition of a system, because there is a slight correlation between wins/losses and what cards were likelier than not to come out, you absolutely can beat a full pay single deck blackjack game with a 1-1-1-1-300 negative progression. Good luck getting that fifth hand in ;)

I was once in a cheapo place in Vegas, probably doesn't exist now. Certainly doesn't deserve to exist.

I made one bet at a blackjack table for the table minimum and then tried to make a fifty dollar bet. Dealer pushed it back and said you can't suddenly change your betting level. ONE hand. Did he think I was able to discern some hot deck after one hand? I was the only one at the table. What did he think the count was after one hand?

In my view many gamblers while on the outside think they have a system or a way of playing, in reality deep down they know they will always lose. Some of them think they will always lose since the casino is corrupt etc. But at the end of the day most people I have seen who have been in land based casinos for a long time know that they can't beat the house. Some people say they can win on roulette etc but they never do and I think deep down they know this. It's rare imo to find someone who truly believes they can beat the casino unless they are new to gambling.

I have some methods which I use which I think are more fun and maybe you could say it's a "system" but they don't give you an edge but rather it's just fun to play a certain way. For me, playing 1 dollar a spin on slots for 12 hours a day is a horrible way to spend my time. I would prefer to start off betting 10 dollars and try to turn that into a lot of money by raising my bet progressively. If I go to the casino prepared to lose 1000 dollars I would prefer to go big or go home rather than spend all day there trying to win money 1 dollar a spin!

Quote: darkoz

Take me for example.

I am the most feared AP on the East Coast

Hey Darkoz, I'm afraid of you and all I've done is read this forum.

Quote: bobbartop

Hey Darkoz, I'm afraid of you and all I've done is read this forum.

Thanks, lol.

Unless you are a casino you dont have to fear

Quote: OnceDear

But it's the casinos that CAN be beaten. Very much so.
The GAMES can generally not be beaten, except for Blackjack.

I know you know this, but just to reiterate. Many games can be beaten "straight up": Some Video poker, some banking slots, some progressives( any game with a progressive has the potential to become positive) , some table games where someone has miscalculated the math/rules/procedures or even a printing error.

Anything has a possibility of being beaten if it has a bug, glitch or some error/mistake involved.

NO BETTING SYSTEM CAN TURN A NEGATIVE NUMBER INTO A POSITIVE ONE, therefore you cannot beat it in the long run.

Everything mentioned above can be broken down and calculated, if the calculation doesn't show hey positive return then you won't be able to beat that game the long run no matter what system you use.

I really don't understand why that's such a hard concept for anyone to understand?

Quote: AxelWolf

I really don't understand why that's such a hard concept for anyone to understand?

People believe it because the games can be beaten despite negative expectations.

BJ has counting, which is the obvious answer.

Roulette can be beaten if you can find a biased wheel (which has been done).

Video poker can be beaten if the pay table is flawed. Most AP players know that.

Craps: well there's dice control, which I don't believe in, although there are those who swear by it.

You can gain an edge on any of these games by working deals with the casino and outfox them with properly structured rules and discounts on losses. Don Johnson is the living example of that.

Does coming out ahead net when you consider comps into the equation as well, such as show-up money, free cruises, etc. count ? That's a judgement call.

Despite what the math might say on paper, the games can be beaten in the real world. That's why people don't embrace the concept.

Quote: Lovecomps

People believe it because the games can be beaten despite negative expectations.

BJ has counting, which is the obvious answer.

Roulette can be beaten if you can find a biased wheel (which has been done).

Video poker can be beaten if the pay table is flawed. Most AP players know that.

Craps: well there's dice control, which I don't believe in, although there are those who swear by it.

You can gain an edge on any of these games by working deals with the casino and outfox them with properly structured rules and discounts on losses. Don Johnson is the living example of that.

Does coming out ahead net when you consider comps into the equation as well, such as show-up money, free cruises, etc. count ? That's a judgement call.

Despite what the math might say on paper, the games can be beaten in the real world. That's why people don't embrace the concept.

You're preaching to the choir. In this very thread I said practically any game can be beaten under the right conditions and circumstances. Sometimes the game itself is beatable and sometimes you need extra given out by the casino.

All that stuff can be added in and calculated it might not be precise, however, you can get a good estimate and be confident the numbers are above 100%. IF the numbers add up to over 100% you can beat the casino/ game. (I have yet to see anyone come up anything solid when it comes to DI). We are talking about people who use a betting system. Most of them will even admit the numbers are negative, however, they somehow think they're betting system can overcome negative numbers and allow them to win in the long run.

Quote: AxelWolf

I really don't understand why that's such a hard concept for anyone to understand?

Math skills

Quote: Ace2

Math skills

My math skills are worse than my spelling, sentence structure and punctuation, yet, I have no problem understanding that simple concept. Perhaps, it's a logic skills.