Not a system, but a logical way to approach Roulette?

Hello everyone, it's nice to be back. I'd like to know what people think of the following theory. I was at a local casino in Colorado the other day and saw an mechanical (not electronic) roulette machine. The machine payed out in electronic credits, not coins, waited for the same time to pass every time, then spat out the ball while turning the wheel.

Now (and this is not a system), would you think that since everything is the same every time would it be a logical assumption that the ball will land in a certain area of the wheel, give or take a bit, every time and be able to have an idea of what portion (1/3 or 1/4) of the wheel the ball might land on based on the previous winning number? It seems that all these exact things would take out a lot of variance that a living dealer paying out multiple players with real chips and different arm movements might be easier to deal with.

Any thoughts?

is it possible to go up and take a picture of the pockets of the wheel? I would like to see them in order to respond to your question.

otherwise you are talking about what i consider to be a visual ballistics problem. to me, in a nutshell, you see where the ball "starts" at. as in which number did the ball get tossed into the bowl at and at which direction. then you see which number the ball started to drop at. You do this over and over again until you get an average number of spaces the ball is likely to fall from the ball drop time. Something called random rotor speed might thwart this and RRS is both mechanical and magnentically controlled.

Quote: Lovecomps

Hello everyone, it's nice to be back. I'd like to know what people think of the following theory. I was at a local casino in Colorado the other day and saw an mechanical (not electronic) roulette machine. The machine payed out in electronic credits, not coins, waited for the same time to pass every time, then spat out the ball while turning the wheel.

Now (and this is not a system), would you think that since everything is the same every time would it be a logical assumption that the ball will land in a certain area of the wheel, give or take a bit, every time and be able to have an idea of what portion (1/3 or 1/4) of the wheel the ball might land on based on the previous winning number? It seems that all these exact things would take out a lot of variance that a living dealer paying out multiple players with real chips and different arm movements might be easier to deal with.

Any thoughts?

I've seen various automated 'air wheels'. Sadly, they have random elements built in so things differ by spin.

Quote: OnceDear

Sadly, they have random elements built in so things differ by spin.

Yeah, those casinos and manufacturers are not always as dumb as we want them to be.

Quote: Lovecomps

Hello everyone, it's nice to be back. I'd like to know what people think of the following theory. I was at a local casino in Colorado the other day and saw an mechanical (not electronic) roulette machine. The machine payed out in electronic credits, not coins, waited for the same time to pass every time, then spat out the ball while turning the wheel.

Now (and this is not a system), would you think that since everything is the same every time-

I think OnceDear and FleaStiff hit the nail on the head - the assumption that "everything is the same every time" is almost certainly incorrect. You should see if the amount of time between when the wheel starts spinning and the ball is released is a constant. The rate of spin and the force of the ball's initial release could be modified as well, but I am guessing it's easier just to modify the delay in when the ball is released.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I think OnceDear and FleaStiff hit the nail on the head - the assumption that "everything is the same every time" is almost certainly incorrect. You should see if the amount of time between when the wheel starts spinning and the ball is released is a constant. The rate of spin and the force of the ball's initial release could be modified as well, but I am guessing it's easier just to modify the delay in when the ball is released.

That said, as long as the wheel does not change velocity after the ball is released it would be cool to write a program that takes a video of the release, calculates the wheel speed and ball trajectory to give you an idea on at when the ball will hit the groove where the numbers are. Once the ball is released the physics can be calculated. It's not like there. Is a back wall or dice edges to contend with.

Variable rotor speed and variable ball ejection speed are the most common variables in those machines.

Quote: DRich

Variable rotor speed and variable ball ejection speed are the most common variables in those machines.

Variable rotor speed, I can see being implemented, but how would "variable ball ejection speed" be done? Multiple air jets? In any event, it seems to me that these are more complicated methods of randomizing the result than a simple time delay in the ball release.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Variable rotor speed, I can see being implemented, but how would "variable ball ejection speed" be done? Multiple air jets? In any event, it seems to me that these are more complicated methods of randomizing the result than a simple time delay in the ball release.

The one system I saw demonstrated at a G2E, the forced air variable was the main randomizer. Anyone, dealer, player, whoever could push a portable button, and the ejector would register a random pressure within a range of values suitable to launch the ball, which controlled the speed and rate of spiral into one of the number slots. Sort of analogous to how a slot machine determines the entire sequence of your spin at the instant of your pressing the button.

I would guess, but can't recall they said, that the belt-driven wheel might also randomly vary its speed of rotation.

The computer running the machine can place
the ball in any section it chooses by controlling
the air ejection and wheel speed. If you watch
the wheel closely, you can see it slow down
drastically at times.

If you noticed, if you win over a certain amount
they pay you in cash like a slot machine payout.
That's because this is a slot machine in essence,
it's programmed to act in a certain way to give
the casino a certain return.

The problem is, even if everything falls perfectly into line, sooner or later a floor walker or pit boss will notice you standing there with a pencil and pad recording the numbers for 5 hours a day over the course of a week(s). That might be the real human element.

Quote: Lovecomps

The problem is, even if everything falls perfectly into line, sooner or later a floor walker or pit boss will notice you standing there with a pencil a

On the roulette machines they could
care less if you do that. The outcomes
are totally controlled by the computer.
There is no way to predict the outcomes.

Quote: EvenBob

The computer running the machine can place
the ball in any section it chooses by controlling
the air ejection and wheel speed. If you watch
the wheel closely, you can see it slow down
drastically at times.

If you noticed, if you win over a certain amount
they pay you in cash like a slot machine payout.
That's because this is a slot machine in essence,
it's programmed to act in a certain way to give
the casino a certain return.

Are these machines in brick and mortar casinos? And you are saying that based on the bets people make, the wheel chooses numbers to keep the return set like a slot machine?? So it isn’t random???

Quote: unJon

Are these machines in brick and mortar casinos? And you are saying that based on the bets people make, the wheel chooses numbers to keep the return set like a slot machine?? So it isn’t random???

It was in a brick and mortar casino and the wheel came to a complete stop every time. The whole thing is a long shot but it piqued my curiosity.

Quote: unJon

Are these machines in brick and mortar casinos? And you are saying that based on the bets people make, the wheel chooses numbers to keep the return set like a slot machine?? So it isn’t random???

It's the opposite of random. The machine
makes it's percentage by placing the ball
in the sections of the wheel with the
least number of bets. The only chance
you have is to place bets equally around
the wheel, or just bet the even chances.
It has no control over them at all.