Baccarat - Was it just terrible luck or does this happen more often than usual
Thread Rating:
It was a bad run, and they do happen often, just not always on your first attempt.
This thread has also been moved to the Betting Systems Sub-Forum.
Quote: Mission146There’s no such thing as luck.
It was a bad run, and they do happen often, just not always on your first attempt.
This thread has also been moved to the Betting Systems Sub-Forum.
No such thing? I beg to differ Mr. 146
Definition Luck: success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions:
Two men go play craps 1 wins 1 loses 1 was lucky 1 wasn't
Quote: rainmanNo such thing? I beg to differ Mr. 146
Definition Luck: success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions:
Two men go play craps 1 wins 1 loses 1 was lucky 1 wasn't
No. One guessed right. The other guessed wrong. Luck doesn't exist.
Quote: hyngchl1So my friend who claims he has been making a killing playing baccarat t
Hi,
Welcome to the forums.
Let's answer this without looking at Baccarat. Let's make it simpler.
You friend has had a lot of luck and he has had lots of winning sessions before a soul and bankroll destroying session.You had a go and got the bankroll destroyer early on in your playing lifetime. Shit happens. Lucky winning streaks happen.
Let's do this by analogy.
Take two theoretical guns: Revolvers with not 6 chambers but 100. Insert 1 bullet into each. Spin the barrels. Take one revolver for yourself and give one two your friend. A 1 in 100 event hardly ever happens. . . until it happens.
Toss a coin to decide who goes first.
Then take turns, each time spinning the gun barrel, pointing it to the holders head and pulling the trigger.
You are both likely to hear the click of your own gun tens or even dozens of times. But one of you will hear a bang as the other blows his brains out.
That, figuratively speaking is the way Martingale makes you a winner more often than a loser.
Others will do the maths, if they can be bothered. It's all been done before. Martingale has been invented millions of times.It is a fun way of losing money. More fun than flat betting.
Quote: rainmanNo such thing? I beg to differ Mr. 146
Definition Luck: success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions:
Two men go play craps 1 wins 1 loses 1 was lucky 1 wasn't
The action undertaken by each man was playing Craps. Only partially chance. No Craps, no chance, no such thing as luck.
Quote: hyngchl1So my friend who claims he has been making a killing playing baccarat told me to roll with the strategy of starting out with player placing 1 unit ($5) bets and stick with betting Player until you win 3 straight. Then after you win 3 straight, he said to switch over to Banker and do the same thing, placing 1 unit bets on Banker until you win 3 straight as well. However, this time for Banker, each time you lose, you will double your losses ($5 - > $ 15 -> $30 -> $60, etc.) aka known as the Martingdale strategy. Then once you win 3 straight on Banker, switch over to Player and repeat except for on player, your just flat betting straight up until you catch a streak of 3. He said he has found high success using this strategy, working about 90% of the time. So I tried using this strategy for the first time and guess what? I was on Banker and Player won 6 straight (which my friend claimed that it will rarely ever happen) and my entire bankroll went down the drain. I don't know if I was just pure unluckiness or if this happens more often than not, but I think it's safe to assume this is a horrible "make me bankrupt asap" strategy that should not be used. I don't know how in the world my friend managed to find success and mak4 constant money using this strategy (don't know if he's lying too) but literally, this had to happen on the first shoe I entered in and it just wiped my soul away completely. Was it just terrible luck or does this happen often? I wish I knew the correct answer to this.
Okay, we'll assume eight decks.
Probability Banker: .458597
Probability Player: .446247
Combined Probability: 0.904844
Adjusted Probability---Player: .446247/.904844 = 0.49317561922
Adjusted Probability---Banker: .458597/.904844 = 0.50682438077
Proof: 0.50682438077 + 0.49317561922 = 0.99999999999
Probability---Player Six in a Row Disregarding Ties: .49317561922^6 = 0.01438830353
Odds: 1/0.01438830353 = 1 in 69.501
I would hardly call 68.501/69.501 an absolute lock.
Quote: hyngchl1He said he has found high success using this strategy, working about 90% of the time. So I tried using this strategy for the first time and guess what? I was on Banker and Player won 6 straight (which my friend claimed that it will rarely ever happen) and my entire bankroll went down the drain. I don't know if I was just pure unluckiness or if this happens more often than not, but I think it's safe to assume this is a horrible "make me bankrupt asap" strategy that should not be used. I don't know how in the world my friend managed to find success and mak4 constant money using this strategy (don't know if he's lying too) but literally, this had to happen on the first shoe I entered in and it just wiped my soul away completely. Was it just terrible luck or does this happen often? I wish I knew the correct answer to this.
It happens often, and your friend is a liar.
Play long enough, and you will see Player win six or more consecutive hands in nearly 30% of the shoes you play. In a few shoes, six consecutive Player wins will occur more than once.
It will also occur in consecutive shoes you play.
In this Wizard of Odds Baccarat Simulation, six or more consecutive Player wins occurred in shoes 2,3,4 and 5.
Next time someone gives you their strategy, try it online, with free chips and live dealers at FairwayCasino.
Other than the word fortunate, what word do you use when describing someone whose life was saved by someone or something bizarre? It just doesn't sound right saying, "you had good variance" since that guy was there to push you out of the path of that speeding car.Quote: Mission146There’s no such thing as luck.
It happens.Quote: hyngchl1Was it just terrible luck or does this happen often? I wish I knew the correct answer to this.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/5928-baccarat-streaks-question/
shows sim data for Bacc streaks
8 deck shoe
I did a fast 5 million shoe sim myself
got this
no runs of 6 or more
2923024
(0.5846048)
at least 1
1656382
0.4153952 (41 out of 100 shoes)
this can be calculated closely too
Excel in Google
https://goo.gl/voCB8o
between 70 to 80 hands per shoe
have fun!
thank you for sharing
btw,
Real Bacc players (those that win)
never ever bet on a Player streak.
my Mom says so (she plays every day)
Sally
Quote: Mission146The action undertaken by each man was playing Craps. Only partially chance. No Craps, no chance, no such thing as luck.
I've never understood why there is a big 'tsk tsk' about using the word 'luck' only to go on and say something like 'you can run bad' or 'this is variance'.
Quote: AxelWolfOther than the word fortunate, what word do you use when describing someone whose life was saved by someone or something bizarre? It just doesn't sound right saying, "you had good variance" since that guy was there to push you out of the path of that speeding car.
I’ve actually got an article written about exactly this that’ll go up on LCB any minute.
Anyway, “Variance,” is exactly what I would call it. You have a bunch of causes that lead to effects that lead to a present state for a person at which a finite number of outcomes are possible at any given time. Within that finite number of outcomes, which are all technically different, but many of which yield the same net result, (think of an RNG reel stops, many break even pays, but technically different game states) and yet, there are small handfuls of results much better, or worse, for the subject actor than most of the others.
So, what you have is probability. That there would be a guy, a speeding car and another guy to push him out of the way, at some point in time, is almost a mathematical certainty. The only variable is who the specific actors are going to be.
Also, the guy whose life is saved could think of himself as lucky and be wrong. Would it not have been more lucky had his life never be threatened to begin with?
Quote: odiousgambitI've never understood why there is a big 'tsk tsk' about using the word 'luck' only to go on and say something like 'you can run bad' or 'this is variance'.
In a gambling conversation, yes. When we’re talking about colloquial speaking, it’s not like I run around correcting everyone who uses the word in general conversation. Hell, I use it sometimes when I don’t catch myself.
Whether or not it is proper is a different matter. Luck implies an uncaused effect that is either positive or negative on a person. The problem is that you can’t have an uncaused effect. You can have an actor who is not a primary actor through whom a set of conditions is created indirectly enabling the event, but the fact is that the actor took some action.
I think that the only thing that can even arguably come down to luck is initial state, which of course refers to where you were born and to whom. Beyond that, the first few years of life because you’re wholly dependent on others. Everything after that, however, is at least partially caused, directly or indirectly, by a decision you made.
Quote: odiousgambitI've never understood why there is a big 'tsk tsk' about using the word 'luck' only to go on and say something like 'you can run bad' or 'this is variance'.
I recall a story when a long-time slot player was asked whether or not he believed in luck. "Absolutely!" he replied. "How else can you explain some idiot hitting the jackpot on the first pull of the machine you just left?"
And, I've always heard that success in poker depends a good deal on luck. (But, luck depends on a good deal, don'cher know?)
Just a few semantics here. Not fighting words, OK?
Imagine how many, “First pulls,” there are in any given casino in any given day. Now, look at all of the casinos, combined, in any given day. At a certain point, mathematically, you can actually arrive at a situation in which a first pull essentially must have won a jackpot at some point.
If you have something that eventually must happen, then it cannot be reduced to luck. Colloquially, you can say that the person it happened to was, “Lucky,” but that’s not actually correct. There are elements of both chance and choice at play, here, and for actual, “Pure luck,” to happen, choice cannot play a role.
I think that about covers it for me, whether talking gambling or life.
Quote: UCivanProf. Eliot Jacobson has done a math research / analysis and proven that it is totally true for some people to be luckier than others in their life time. It was reported either in his book or on his apheat.net before.
A person needs luck at crucial points in life. For example it is not good for even a well prepared person to be entering the job market for the first time while the economy is in the beginning of an economic downturn, even a short one, god forbid a long one.
https://latestcasinobonuses.com/news/editorials/the-luck-you-got
Quote: Mission146Me on luck, for any who care to read it:
https://latestcasinobonuses.com/news/editorials/the-luck-you-got
Here's how I prove it:
Two guys are playing video poker. Both hit the deal button at the exact same nanosecond and both are dealt exactly this hand; K♠️, Q♠️, J♠️, 10♠️, 4♦️. Both discard the 4 and hit the draw button, again, at the exact same nanosecond. Player one draws the 6♥️ while player two draws the A♠️. The "luck believers" will say that player two was "luckier" when in reality, drawing either of these two cards have the EXACT SAME probability (1 in 47).
Just because a certain finishing result pays different from another doesn't make it "lucky."
Quote: IbeatyouracesNo. One guessed right. The other guessed wrong. Luck doesn't exist.
You're absolutely right. There is no such thing as luck, just random variation, which can be mathematically calculated and estimated.
Quote: TigerWu"Luck" isn't a scientific term so there's nothing to prove or disprove. It's just a word describing certain outcomes of chance.
The problem is, people try to tie it in with seemingly rare events that stand out but not on ones that don't. My video poker scenario above is a prime example.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThe problem is, people try to tie it in with seemingly rare events that stand out but not on ones that don't. My video poker scenario above is a prime example.
But that's all luck IS. It's just an abstract descriptor for success or failure through chance.
If I walk up to a slot machine, put in one quarter, pull the handle once, and win a million dollars, I can say I "got lucky." It's not that I'm trying to measure or prove the scientific concept of "luck;" I'm just using a colorful metaphor to illustrate certain effects of statistical variance.
That's what "luck" is to me.
Let's pretend you are chatting it up with a cocktail waitress and she mentions her and her friends are heading out to play some Video poker after work. Would you say, "I wish you good variance?" If your answer is, yes, I fear there is no hope for you.
There is a time and place for both words.
Surely, if you accept that Probability is a valid concept and word, then you should accept that probability of an unpredictable event that leads to a favourable outcome can be ascribed the term 'Lucky' and one where the outcome is equally unpredictable but ends in an unfortunate outcome is unlucky. Luck, being a subjective measure of how fortunate one has been.
Quote: AxelWolf
Let's pretend you are chatting it up with a cocktail waitress and she mentions her and her friends are heading out to play some Video poker after work. Would you say, "I wish you good variance?"
That is definitely something I would have said in high school/college, which explains why I didn't go on any dates back then.
Assuming you are looking for some action, saying good luck wouldn't be the correct response either. That's almost like saying Godspeed as if you are not available or interested. You should assess why she is telling you. Asking if you can join may be awkward and creepy, especially since there's a 95% chance you misread the situation. It would be best to say something like, "Sounds like fun, I enjoy Video poker, most people say I'm good luck(not good variance)." That would give her a good reason and an opening for her to say, you should join them.Quote: TigerWuThat is definitely something I would have said in high school/college, which explains why I didn't go on any dates back then.
