djatc
djatc
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Thanks for this post from:
monet0412
July 14th, 2017 at 9:33:05 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

So you can justifiably take some pride in your skill, and where else are you so appreciated? Where do you pass it on? Here is where people look to play smarter and better, so anything you care to discuss is of value.



I was just going to write that if you are solo or a duo it's tough to resist the temptation to share more then we would like to. How awesome is it when you make $5k in your sleep, while a bunch of APs you took action with hit the progressive? What about driving down to the casino, to have someone else you had action with take it down? How about hitting a crazy +ev sports parlay?

All these things you want to share. You want people to see what you're accomplishing. You want people to be jealous. You want the fame that comes with being a professional gambler. Not you in particular, but generally we want to see some acknowledgement for our actions.
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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July 14th, 2017 at 9:49:45 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I was just going to write that if you are solo or a duo it's tough to resist the temptation to share more then we would like to. How awesome is it when you make $5k in your sleep, while a bunch of APs you took action with hit the progressive? What about driving down to the casino, to have someone else you had action with take it down? How about hitting a crazy +ev sports parlay?

All these things you want to share. You want people to see what you're accomplishing. You want people to be jealous. You want the fame that comes with being a professional gambler. Not you in particular, but generally we want to see some acknowledgement for our actions.



Well I resign my position because that is definitely checkmate! Nicely done... written simple and clear enough for me to get clarity and closure. Definitely outclassed and a bit jealous since I've never made 5k while sleeping. Depressed now... time for a nap!
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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July 15th, 2017 at 3:32:41 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

Well I resign my position because that is definitely checkmate! Nicely done... written simple and clear enough for me to get clarity and closure. Definitely outclassed and a bit jealous since I've never made 5k while sleeping. Depressed now... time for a nap!



Waking up to the last game of a half point parlay is pretty fun when every other leg has won. Someone you took action on hitting a progressive that would take hours upon hours while you're driving to the casino is fun. Hitting a royal when picking up FP is pretty fun. Charging your dead phone and seeing messages of people with +$$$ totals on a play is fun too.
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
Arennwen
Arennwen
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July 15th, 2017 at 4:05:13 AM permalink
Very interesting is what you wrote, try your system at game)
KevinAA
KevinAA
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July 18th, 2017 at 10:51:23 AM permalink
So apparently no one is interested in probability distribution of winnings over a single session. The only thing that matters is expected value. Variance means nothing! It's either ignore the machine completely, or shove as much cash into it as needed and continue to press buttons until you win the jackpot.

I will be happy to explain what "probability distribution" means if people want to hear, but only after getting an apology for being attacked. I am not going to waste my time trying to explain something to people who have their ears closed. If people are going to be rude to me, then I'll be rude back. If people are civil, I'll be civil. It's that simple.

I never said that my system GUARANTEES a win. In fact, I made it explicitly clear that it doesn't. Look at the results... only 1/3 of the time do you win!
Mosca
Mosca
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July 18th, 2017 at 11:58:20 AM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

So apparently no one is interested in probability distribution of winnings over a single session. The only thing that matters is expected value. Variance means nothing! It's either ignore the machine completely, or shove as much cash into it as needed and continue to press buttons until you win the jackpot.

I will be happy to explain what "probability distribution" means if people want to hear, but only after getting an apology for being attacked. I am not going to waste my time trying to explain something to people who have their ears closed. If people are going to be rude to me, then I'll be rude back. If people are civil, I'll be civil. It's that simple.

I never said that my system GUARANTEES a win. In fact, I made it explicitly clear that it doesn't. Look at the results... only 1/3 of the time do you win!



Quote: KevinAA

This "betting system" is a way to guide you in a completely objective manner as to when to press the cash out button (rather than relying on emotions which favor the casino), so that you don't give back winnings too often, but also don't give up too soon and walk away with a very small win.



I just don't see how it is any different from mashing the button and then randomly deciding to leave, whether by following the system, or having to pee, or being hungry, or the game is on, or the bus is leaving, or whatever. Probability distributions don't take past results into account when describing possible future outcomes: previous results are no longer probabilities.
NO KILL I
KevinAA
KevinAA
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July 18th, 2017 at 12:16:02 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I just don't see how it is any different from mashing the button and then randomly deciding to leave, whether by following the system, or having to pee, or being hungry, or the game is on, or the bus is leaving, or whatever. Probability distributions don't take past results into account when describing possible future outcomes: previous results are no longer probabilities.



If you decide to leave at some random time, then the probability distribution of winnings will be different. What it is will depend on the probability density of your "walk away" function. Let's say that it is exponential. That is, the probability of still being there at time t (in hours) is exp(-t*k) where k is some constant. If your "walk away" function is a 75% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.75 ==> k=0.287682. If your "walk away" function is faster, say a 25% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.25 ==> k=1.386294. Higher k ==> walk away sooner. Higher k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more spread out. Lower k ==> play longer. Lower k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more concentrated. If you sit there 'forever', where k is approaching 0, then the probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be very narrowly centered around the mean, making it almost impossible to win if the payback percentage is less than 100%.

The purpose of my system is to make a decision as to when to stop (call it "stop loss/stop win" if you will) that will result in a particular probability distribution of winnings, rather than an unknown probability distribution of winnings. It has nothing to do with past results.

For example, the probability of winning a roulette single spot (American version) is 1/38. That is a known probability even though you don't know if you're going to win or not before the spin. The equivalent of playing a slot machine for some random amount of time at the roulette table is to put on a blindfold and throw your chips at the board, then after the spin starts, take off your blindfold and watch. The house edge doesn't change, of course, but the probability distribution of winnings is different (unknown to you because you bet blindfolded) rather than choosing what bets to make. The probability distribution of winnings at roulette depends on what bets you make -- red/black vs 2 spots vs 6 spots vs 1 spot etc.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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July 18th, 2017 at 12:38:35 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

So apparently no one is interested in probability distribution of winnings over a single session. The only thing that matters is expected value. Variance means nothing! It's either ignore the machine completely, or shove as much cash into it as needed and continue to press buttons until you win the jackpot.

I will be happy to explain what "probability distribution" means if people want to hear, but only after getting an apology for being attacked. I am not going to waste my time trying to explain something to people who have their ears closed. If people are going to be rude to me, then I'll be rude back. If people are civil, I'll be civil. It's that simple.

I never said that my system GUARANTEES a win. In fact, I made it explicitly clear that it doesn't. Look at the results... only 1/3 of the time do you win!



The difference between you and I is that if you play the machines I tell you to when the jackpots are at a certain number you will always win over time. I would guarantee your in the positive every year.
Mosca
Mosca
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July 18th, 2017 at 12:50:54 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

If you decide to leave at some random time, then the probability distribution of winnings will be different. What it is will depend on the probability density of your "walk away" function. Let's say that it is exponential. That is, the probability of still being there at time t (in hours) is exp(-t*k) where k is some constant. If your "walk away" function is a 75% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.75 ==> k=0.287682. If your "walk away" function is faster, say a 25% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.25 ==> k=1.386294. Higher k ==> walk away sooner. Higher k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more spread out. Lower k ==> play longer. Lower k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more concentrated. If you sit there 'forever', where k is approaching 0, then the probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be very narrowly centered around the mean, making it almost impossible to win if the payback percentage is less than 100%.

The purpose of my system is to make a decision as to when to stop (call it "stop loss/stop win" if you will) that will result in a particular probability distribution of winnings, rather than an unknown probability distribution of winnings. It has nothing to do with past results.

For example, the probability of winning a roulette single spot (American version) is 1/38. That is a known probability even though you don't know if you're going to win or not before the spin. The equivalent of playing a slot machine for some random amount of time at the roulette table is to put on a blindfold and throw your chips at the board, then after the spin starts, take off your blindfold and watch. The house edge doesn't change, of course, but the probability distribution of winnings is different (unknown to you because you bet blindfolded) rather than choosing what bets to make. The probability distribution of winnings at roulette depends on what bets you make -- red/black vs 2 spots vs 6 spots vs 1 spot etc.



Results that have already happened are no longer probabilities, and cannot be counted in probability distributions. What happened prior to you walking into the casino? It doesn't matter, does it? And the reason is that you are looking forward, not backward. So as soon as you get a result, you can no longer use it to make probability distribution calculations.
NO KILL I
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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July 18th, 2017 at 1:13:00 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

The difference between you and I is that if you play the machines I tell you to when the jackpots are at a certain number you will always win over time. I would guarantee your in the positive every year.



Quote: monet0412

The other problem for me is I can't show anyone the math on reel machines. I can only tell you that I've put millions upon millions of coin and spins through and I know what can be done. Also some inside information about theoretical return from management that I tip so sometimes tipping can be profitable. Of course I'm not certain they have the correct Theo... but like I said... I really don't know much I'm just a pinball banging around in the Casinos playing games all day and night just firing torpedoes!!



I have a question for you, and it goes right along with the topic of the OP, stop loss!

I understand that a significant amount of your knowledge on slot AP has been acquired from banging away on these machines for several years over millions of coin-in. You must have quite a few -EV pulls under your belt while scouting profitable plays. Do you budget a certain percentage of your winnings to go towards "research and development", so to speak? At what point do you realize a particular game/jackpot/slot club/promotion just isn't beatable and move on?

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