OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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April 14th, 2017 at 1:02:51 AM permalink
First: I confess to not playing craps and not knowing how the betting works.
Quote: troopscott

While you guys are correct that the dice have no memory of the previous roll . . . In this case the field number vs the no field number. Everyone knows the percentages on an individual roll but as the streak goes in length from a F to NF roll the probability's of the next number being a NF roll increase.

Now, that is where you seem to be buying into a theory that dice do have a memory: The probability that the next number is non-field is fixed. It doesn't increase for any reason, least of all because of what happened over the previous rolls. The probability for the outcome of that one roll is determined and applicable in isolation to anything that just happened in the universe, which is history.
Quote:

. . . so 6 rolls (4 no bet two bet) in if the odds are 2% that the next number is a NF that makes the bet attractive to me depending on the level of the bet I am at.

The only value in those no-bet rolls is that they slow down your wagering and slow down your losing. Think of it this way: The odds of tossing a coin and it landing heads is generally accepted as 50%. What are the chances of it landing heads twice? 50%*50%=25%
But if the coin just landed heads: what are the chances that it just landed heads? 100% Because it did!!! So the odds of the last toss and the next toss both being heads are now 100%*50%=50%. The odds of these two tosses both being heads are not 25% any more. The cumulative probability has to be recalculated based on how far into the sequence we have progressed. That recalculation proves that the chance of heads is not improving, the longer you wait for a sequence.
Quote:

. . .the $100 I will throw at it will not dent my bankroll enough to have any impact. . . . earn some craps comps, minimal investment and a little fun and maybe walk away with a profit a few times

Fun is good. Comps are good Profit is good. Deluding oneself about probability is bad. waiting for a streak to get established is pointless.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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April 14th, 2017 at 1:56:37 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

First: I confess to not playing craps and not knowing how the betting works.



Ok, some more applicable maths.

You walk to the table, not knowing what just happened.
Probability that next roll will be non-field is 20/36=55.56%
Probability that all of the next 6 rolls will be non-field is (20/36)^6=0.02940119411 = 2.9%
You wait until you see 4 consecutive non-field results.
time passes
.
more time passes
.
result: four non-field results just happened.
The probability that the roll that just happened was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the roll immediately before that was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the roll immediately before that was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the roll immediately before that was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the next roll will be non-field is 20/36
The probability that the roll after the next roll roll will be non-field is 20/36
The probability that all 6 rolls will be non-field ( having already watched 4 of them land as non-field ) will be:-
100%*100%*100%*100%*55.56%*55.56%=0.3086419753 or 31% It is not 2.9%
Remember, this is not just any old 6 rolls, it is any six rolls where the first four were non-field.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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April 14th, 2017 at 6:10:46 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

TS; Who makes the craps machine and what are the limits?



Interblock I believe. I will check if I go to the casino today

They have two machines. One is $10-10000 the other is 25-10000. Will double check those as well
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
ontariodealer
April 14th, 2017 at 11:12:18 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Tnx. Not doing it for a living

WHY NOT?

Ya, ya, I know, you don't want to tip off the casinos, casinos are too smokey, positive energy turns negative if you get too greedy, cuts into your dress up time, money is not everything, blah blah blah.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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April 14th, 2017 at 11:19:37 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

WHY NOT?

Ya, ya, I know, you don't want to tip off the casinos, casinos are too smokey, positive energy turns negative if you get too greedy, cuts into your dress up time, money is not everything, blah blah blah.



Again, you seem to have it all figured out! What is your win/loss for the past few years?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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April 14th, 2017 at 11:20:48 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Again, you seem to have it all figured out! What is your win/loss for the past few years?



Actually, I already have a good idea, so no need to answer .
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 15th, 2017 at 10:37:08 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Again, you seem to have it all figured out! What is your win/loss for the past few years?

I think I already mentioned, I don't really play craps because there's rarely a good opportunity that is +EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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April 16th, 2017 at 11:05:03 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think I already mentioned, I don't really play craps because there's rarely a good opportunity that is +EV.



What would you consider that 'rare good opportunity' to be in craps? What table games do you play?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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April 16th, 2017 at 11:03:41 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

What would you consider that 'rare good opportunity' to be in craps? What table games do you play?

Some +EV opportunities in craps (without dice-setting skills).

(1) match plays
(2) special promotions altering the rules
(3) loss rebates
(4) back-end Free Play (FP), Promotions, and other benefits.

It may be useful to know how credit is given for
(a) bets against each other (Pass & Don't Pass & 12)
(b) odds
(c) come bets

It is possible for the theoretical loss on $X of craps action to be less than the amount of Free Play given over the next 4-7 months.
However, the amount of time required to come back & pick up FP (and the amount of action required so that the FP is not revoked), may make a situation worth very little (in hourly rate).
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 17th, 2017 at 1:01:14 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

What would you consider that 'rare good opportunity' to be in craps? What table games do you play?

I think mamat summed it up fairly well.

Trust me, if there was a way to beat 1000 of casinos practically heat free, 24/7 365 on craps, roulette, baccarat with some betting system or positive energy mumbo-jumbo, I wouldn't be spending time talking to you here.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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