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98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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September 29th, 2010 at 8:59:28 PM permalink
Re-write, in plain Grandma English, is nearing completion. Should be ready for submission by Friday at the latest.

7craps- Thank you for your assistance in proofreading, code writing and "gibberish" de-gibberishing.

mkl654321 and/or MathExtremist- You two have been along for this ride since the beginning. Before submitting my final draft to Mr. Bluejay, I would welcome either of you to proof-read my instructions. 7craps has been kind enough to proof-read my emerging draft, but he has the benefit of having had me explain every detail. I recognize that you both give me zero chance of success, therefore, I would not ask for any analyzation of the systems chances of success, but rather for confirmation that it is indeed clear, understandable and programmable. The only concession I would ask before showing the instructions to you is that despite your estimation of it's value, you commit to keeping the details of my strategies completely confidential.

For anyone who is still wondering if the challenge will indeed happen, have faith that I am too damn stubborn to quit now.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 29th, 2010 at 9:09:56 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

For anyone who is still wondering if the challenge will indeed happen, have faith that I am too damn stubborn to quit now.



98, are you suggesting that you'll accept no matter what the results of the new WinCraps simulation? Careful...stubbornness is the downfall of many a gambler! If your system fails WinCraps then you'd be crazy to proceed with the challenge. I won't take your "too stubborn to quit now" line above as any kind of promise or commitment. If you want to back down later (before any contract is signed), that's fine with me. I know I've been a little curt with you, but I still don't have any burning desire to see you lose $1000. If you're worried about losing face by backing down, trust me, you'll lose more face by *accepting* the challenge -- especially after it loses. I think people will respect you more if you realize that no system can beat the casino. Really, what would people think of you if your system fails WinCraps and yet you blow $1000 on the challenge anyway?

That said, it's your money, and I'm no position to refuse a challenge brought properly. This is my last attempt to talk you out of it.
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 29th, 2010 at 9:15:38 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Re-write, in plain Grandma English, is nearing completion. Should be ready for submission by Friday at the latest.

mkl654321 and/or MathExtremist- You two have been along for this ride since the beginning. Before submitting my final draft to Mr. Bluejay, I would welcome either of you to proof-read my instructions.



Feel free to send them to me via private message. I promise not to show the instructions to anyone else.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 11:30:06 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Hopefully it is fewer than 98 steps.


Quote: MichaelBluejay


It's his explanation of his system, full of incomplete sentences, his own special terminology (e.g., "scheduled odds", whatever that means), and exceptionally unclear sentences.

It's 101 lines long.



After reading a few of the past posts,
is The Wizard good.. or is he good!
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 9:42:45 PM permalink
Looks as 98steps now has 3 members that have seen his system including myself.
I plan on keeping his system a secret also.
and if he proceeds to send it to 2 others after a complete re-write, that will make 5 before Mr. Bluejay sees it.

I am only interested in helping run simulations and the programming that goes with it.
What 98steps does with the information I or others give to him becomes his choice.

I give no further information other than the fact that 98steps has stated earlier that from actual casino play he has a 95% win rate per 20 sessions.

HI 98steps
I have been to Spain and back and soon to go back once again.
Good Luck!
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 10:56:20 PM permalink
Yeah, but what kind of bankroll is required to enjoy that 95% win rate? If your bankroll isn't huge and you're often doubling your bets, you'll certainly bust out more frequently.

Long ago I figured that a straight Martingale had an 85% of winning after an hour with a 1-200 spread (e.g., $5 to $1000). But lengthier play starts dropping the win rate quickly. After eight hours it has only a 47% chance of winning, and it only gets worse the longer you use it.

Just now I simulated a massive 1 to 8192 spread, with the max bet being $40,960 (bet #14, after 13 losses). If that bet is lost, the player would have lost $81,915 on the series. I found that this huge bet spread would let the player play for only 30 hours and still enjoy a 95% win rate. Continued play beyond 30 hours drops the win rate precipitously.
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 11:08:45 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Yeah, but what kind of bankroll is required to enjoy that 95% win rate? If your bankroll isn't huge and you're often doubling your bets, you'll certainly bust out more frequently.



I can not give out that information about the bankroll for 98steps, but I am sure he will make his system available to you very soon.

I also have just read his re-write and I must agree that the difference between the first version you saw and the "Grandma Friendly" version that you will shortly see is like the difference between night and day. But, I know you want to be the judge of that.

His progressions are not a martingale, they follow the D'Alembert system of increasing a bet after a loss, not a double, and decreasing after a win as previously posted.
added edit:
After a quick look at the "original" that I received, I see he does state the active bankroll. I do not know if you received one different than mine. But the bankroll is not very large, actually about what maximum table limits are at regular casinos.

update: I sent you a private message.
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 11:19:08 PM permalink
Quote: nope27

Looks as 98steps now has 3 members that have seen his system including myself.
I plan on keeping his system a secret also.
and if he proceeds to send it to 2 others after a complete re-write, that will make 5 before Mr. Bluejay sees it.


I am also certain that the others that will see the system will run their own simulations ,as I have have already done, and by doing so will be totally satisfied with their results.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 11:27:00 PM permalink
Sorry, I wasn't asking for you to reveal 98steps' bankroll requirements, it was more of a rhetorical question. What I was trying to say was, given a large enough bankroll and bet spread, lots of betting systems can show a 95% win rate after only an hour of play. That's no big deal. You can do that with the Martingale.

In my challenge I allow a spread of 1 to 500. (That's generous, as most tables in Vegas allow only 1 to 200.) Getting a 95% win rate after an hour of play under these conditions is just no big achievement. Getting a win after, say, 40 hours of play is much tougher.
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
  • Threads: 5
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September 30th, 2010 at 11:31:15 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Sorry, I wasn't asking for you to reveal 98steps' bankroll requirements, it was more of a rhetorical question. What I was trying to say was, given a large enough bankroll and bet spread, lots of betting systems can show a 95% win rate after only an hour of play. That's no big deal. You can do that with the Martingale.

In my challenge I allow a spread of 1 to 500. (That's generous, as most tables in Vegas allow only 1 to 200.) Getting a 95% win rate after an hour of play under these conditions is just no big achievement. Getting a win after, say, 40 hours of play is much tougher.



I understand. I have to add that English is not my first language. I can write very well but at times I struggle with the written words and I take each meaning quite literally.
I did send you a private message, since without you there would be no challenge possible.

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