Using martingale on 0.25 cents bets roulette
Start with 0.25 cents on one of those roulette video machines in vegas and martingale on one of the colors
You can cover 9 loss streak with 127 bucks, how likely that you're going to get a streak of the same color for more than 9 times in a row? I dont know how to do the math but i'm guessing it would be fairly low unless the machines are programmed unfairly which i heard is illegal in the state of Nevada
Yes the winnings will be small but you can easily guarantee profit of $30+ an hour if you play fast
Thoughts?
Quote: HalcyonSystem is pretty simple
Start with 0.25 cents on one of those roulette video machines in vegas and martingale on one of the colors
You can cover 9 loss streak with 127 bucks, how likely that you're going to get a streak of the same color for more than 9 times in a row? I dont know how to do the math but i'm guessing it would be fairly low unless the machines are programmed unfairly which i heard is illegal in the state of Nevada
Yes the winnings will be small but you can easily guarantee profit of $30+ an hour if you play fast
Thoughts?
My thoughts are that you are wrong and that the HE against you is 5.26%
Quote: TomspurMy thoughts are that you are wrong and that the HE against you is 5.26%
Not completely. I'm pretty sure that he was right when he said that he didn't know how to do the math.
Quote: TomspurMy thoughts are that you are wrong and that the HE against you is 5.26%
But the probability of the same color appearing 9 times in a row is 0.15%
Quote: HalcyonYou can cover 9 loss streak with 127 bucks, how likely that you're going to get a streak of the same color for more than 9 times in a row?
One in 1,024. If there were no zero. With one zero (counting zeroes as "the same color"), one in 784. With two zeroes, one in 613.
Quote: HalcyonYes the winnings will be small but you can easily guarantee profit of $30+ an hour if you play fast
$30 means 120 cycles. If there's one zero, by your speed estimate, you'll hit a ten-loss streak every six or seven hours. If two, every five hours. These each take $255.75 (the $127.75 that covers the nine-loss streak, and the $128 lost on the tenth) - about eight and a half hours' "work." Now, granted, that's not to say you'll never get ahead - just that overall, it's a losing bet.
WOW yes this is an amazing discovery and yet so simple for a nice profit of $30 and hr. Why are you not out playing this? Why tell everyone? Done right you could play 2 stations for $60 and hr. You could hire a team pay each person $15 an hr. We are talking thousands a day. I'm surprised all the casinos, gaming experts and the mathematicians have not thought of this. Imagine you don't even know the odds of 9 in a row but you have struck gold.Quote: HalcyonSystem is pretty simple
Start with 0.25 cents on one of those roulette video machines in vegas and martingale on one of the colors
You can cover 9 loss streak with 127 bucks, how likely that you're going to get a streak of the same color for more than 9 times in a row? I dont know how to do the math but i'm guessing it would be fairly low unless the machines are programmed unfairly which i heard is illegal in the state of Nevada
Yes the winnings will be small but you can easily guarantee profit of $30+ an hour if you play fast
Thoughts?
This makes me think about how all the old great actors and actresses spent time and effort crafting their skills and really acted well. Then along comes Boney boo boo, Snookie who will probably make ore money then half of them combine.
Before you start making hundreds of thousands a year you may want to go read this, this guy lost 15 BJ hands in a row not once but 2 times in a short period of time. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/18322-vegas-vacation-with-aos/
Quote: AxelWolfWOW yes this is an amazing discovery and yet so simple for a nice profit of $30 and hr. Why are you not out playing this? Why tell everyone? Done right you could play 2 stations for $60 and hr. You could hire a team pay each person $15 an hr. We are talking thousands a day. I'm surprised all the casinos, gaming experts and the mathematicians have not thought of this. Imagine you don't even know the odds of 9 in a row but you have struck gold.
This makes me think about how all the old great actors and actresses spent time and effort crafting their skills and really acted well. Then along comes Boney boo boo, Snookie who will probably make ore money then half of them combine.
Before you start making hundreds of thousands a year you may want to go read this, this guy lost 15 BJ hands in a row not once but 2 times in a short period of time. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/18322-vegas-vacation-with-aos/
Axel, you are missing an important piece of playing 2 stations. If you are going to play 2 then one would have to marty red and on the other marty black. That way whenever you are on the losing streak the other will be winning.
Now we just need to get the bac players to do something like this. Oh wait....
Also he could just ignore the 0/00 outcomes because that is just a cost of playing.
Everybody knows you have to hedge off the greens.Quote: GWAEAxel, you are missing an important piece of playing 2 stations. If you are going to play 2 then one would have to marty red and on the other marty black. That way whenever you are on the losing streak the other will be winning.
Now we just need to get the bac players to do something like this. Oh wait....
Also he could just ignore the 0/00 outcomes because that is just a cost of playing.
Quote: HalcyonSystem is pretty simple. Start with 0.25 cents on one of those roulette video machines in vegas and martingale on one of the colors
You can cover 9 loss streak with 127 bucks, how likely that you're going to get a streak of the same color for more than 9 times in a row? I dont know how to do the math but i'm guessing it would be fairly low unless the machines are programmed unfairly which i heard is illegal in the state of Nevada. Yes the winnings will be small but you can easily guarantee profit of $30+ an hour if you play fast. Thoughts?
A downtown Vegas hustler/compulsive gambler I knew named Black Bart used a type of Martingale at the craps table at the Plaza. This was early nineties and the minimum bet was 25 cents. He would bet one 25 cent chip at a time on the don't pass. No free odds. After a loss he would double up and add one. So his progression looked like this:
1-3-7-15-31-63, etc.
Is there a name for this betting progression? Does anyone know?
Quote: mickeycrimmA downtown Vegas hustler/compulsive gambler I knew named Black Bart used a type of Martingale at the craps table at the Plaza. This was early nineties and the minimum bet was 25 cents. He would bet one 25 cent chip at a time on the don't pass. No free odds. After a loss he would double up and add one. So his progression looked like this:
1-3-7-15-31-63, etc.
Is there a name for this betting progression? Does anyone know?
Grand martingale. You double the last bet and add 1, so instead of risking 1024 to win 1, you are risking 1023 to win 10. Of course you get there in 10 steps instead of the 11 of normal martingale, making it "riskier."
Quote: wudgedGrand martingale. You double the last bet and add 1, so instead of risking 1024 to win 1, you are risking 1023 to win 10. Of course you get there in 10 steps instead of the 11 of normal martingale, making it "riskier."
Thanks, wudged. I always love being enlightened.
Quote: mickeycrimmA downtown Vegas hustler/compulsive gambler I knew named Black Bart used a type of Martingale at the craps table at the Plaza. This was early nineties and the minimum bet was 25 cents. He would bet one 25 cent chip at a time on the don't pass. No free odds. After a loss he would double up and add one. So his progression looked like this:
1-3-7-15-31-63, etc.
Is there a name for this betting progression? Does anyone know?
Yes, it's called the 'Getting Your Ass Handed To You' ....progression.
Quote: mickeycrimmA downtown Vegas hustler/compulsive gambler I knew named Black Bart used a type of Martingale at the craps table at the Plaza. This was early nineties and the minimum bet was 25 cents. He would bet one 25 cent chip at a time on the don't pass. No free odds. After a loss he would double up and add one. So his progression looked like this:
1-3-7-15-31-63, etc.
Is there a name for this betting progression? Does anyone know?
How much did he end up losing?
This is a losing system ?Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHow much did he end up losing?
Quote: HalcyonSystem is pretty simple
Start with 0.25 cents on one of those roulette video machines in vegas and martingale on one of the colors
You can cover 9 loss streak with 127 bucks, how likely that you're going to get a streak of the same color for more than 9 times in a row? I dont know how to do the math
You're in luck - I do.
The probability of losing nine red/black bets in a row on a wheel with 00 is (10/19)9 = 1/322.6877.
The problem is, when you win, you win 25 cents since your previous starting point, and when you lose, you lose 508 times that much.
In other words, you are, in effect, letting the casino bet 25 cents at 508-1 odds on something that has a 1 in 323 chance of happening.
So you are saying its impossible to lose with this system and the OP will soon be rich, as long as he has a positive attitude, quits when he is ahead and realizes people really only play short run sessions. you can reset the long-run after a good nights sleep. As long as each person plays under 322 spins per day, everything should work like a charm.Quote: ThatDonGuyYou're in luck - I do.
The probability of losing nine red/black bets in a row on a wheel with 00 is (10/19)9 = 1/322.6877.
The problem is, when you win, you win 25 cents since your previous starting point, and when you lose, you lose 508 times that much.
In other words, you are, in effect, letting the casino bet 25 cents at 508-1 odds on something that has a 1 in 323 chance of happening.
If he puts up the money, I am willing to run his team for him(PM me). Since this is his system, I would feel guilty taking a % of the win, I think I will just take a salary, that's only fair to him. I won't tell anyone about this(loose lips).
I may ask for hazard pay. Once the Asians find out about this, I think there will be a war. We need to contact a lawyer for all the backrooming that will be going on. We probably need good disguises.
Quote: AxelWolfSo you are saying its impossible to lose with this system and the OP will soon be rich, as long as he has a positive attitude, quits when he is ahead and realizes people really only play short run sessions. you can reset the long-run after a good nights sleep. As long as each person plays under 322 spins per day, everything should work like a charm.Quote: ThatDonGuyYou're in luck - I do.
The probability of losing nine red/black bets in a row on a wheel with 00 is (10/19)9 = 1/322.6877.
The problem is, when you win, you win 25 cents since your previous starting point, and when you lose, you lose 508 times that much.
In other words, you are, in effect, letting the casino bet 25 cents at 508-1 odds on something that has a 1 in 323 chance of happening.
Where did I say that?
Also, it's 322 "bets" (from the casino's point of view, each bet ends with either a player win (the casino loses its 25c "bet") or 9 player losses in a row (the casino gains $127, or 508-1 on its 25c "bet")), not 322 spins.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHow much did he end up losing?
In his own words "It works pretty good most of the time for grinding out a small profit, but every once in a while I get my ass handed to me."
Quote: mickeycrimmIn his own words "It works pretty good most of the time for grinding out a small profit, but every once in a while I get my ass handed to me."
So, this brings up an interesting question.
Out of all the "professional gamblers" that you have known, met, and played with, how many of them do you think are people who are actually playing with an edge and winning money, and how many of them fall for nonsense betting systems like this, and think that they have an edge, but don't?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceSo, this brings up an interesting question. Out of all the "professional gamblers" that you have known, met, and played with, how many of them do you think are people who are actually playing with an edge and winning money, and how many of them fall for nonsense betting systems like this, and think that they have an edge, but don't?
That's hard to quantify. I didn't really know a lot of systems bettors. 90% of the guys I knew had an ability to make money in one part of the casino, but ran the money over to the other end of the casino and dumped it off. Like some of the Flush Attackers I knew at the Riverside in Laughlin. They beat Flush Attack then ran the money up to the sports book. A lot of the advantage slots guys couldn't stay off a sucker machine if there weren't any advantage slot plays to be had.
Famous poker players have leaks. Like T.J. Cloutier, an excellent tournament player, but can't stay off the craps table or out of the horse book. At the 2004 WSOP Phil Ivey came across the mall to the Golden Nugget poker room and shellacked the big boys, Brunson and his crown, then dumped all the money and more at the craps table before heading back to the Horseshoe. He's a degenerate gambler.
One "professional sports bettor" I knew had a system in baseball. He bet against the the best pitchers on the money line. He used a Martingale if he lost. He doubled the bet the next time the pitcher was out. He kept doing this until the pitcher lost. He swore he made money at it. I don't have the knowledge to know whether its a winning system or not.
John Juanda, a top tournament pro, once told Cardplayer Magazine he was a professional keno player. He was talking about live keno and I've never seen a live keno game that even came close to presenting an edge to a player.
There can be times when edges can't be found. It can get real boring. Some of us can handle staying out of action until an edge develops and some of us can't.
If you look at losing 4 in a row on a 50/50 game, you would lose 4 in a row once every 30 trials. 30 trials is 15 win and 15 losses. A marty loss of 4 in a row is 1-2-4-8 = 15 units, you lose 15 units in 30 trials, and you would win 15 units in 30 trials. You break even stopping the marty progression after any specified number of losses on a 50/50 game of chance.
Losing 4 in a row on a 47.5% game occurs once every 25.5 trials, a little bit more often then a 50/50 game. So, in 25.5 trials a marty loss of 4 in a row is still the same, 1-2-4-8 = 15 units. Problem now is you only win 12 units in 25.5 trials. 15 unit loss vs. a 12.5 unit win. Total lost of 2.5 units.
So, while it's difficult to explain that the marty is a loser to someone who claims he can always double his next bet, and therefore win every time, the *cringe* Infinity argument, it's clear that when you cut the marty off after a specified number of losses on an HE game, it is a loser.
Quote: mickeycrimmOne "professional sports bettor" I knew had a system in baseball. He bet against the the best pitchers on the money line. He used a Martingale if he lost. He doubled the bet the next time the pitcher was out. He kept doing this until the pitcher lost. He swore he made money at it. I don't have the knowledge to know whether its a winning system or not.
Unlike most Martingales, chances are he was getting better than even money on his bets, but still, a pitcher winning 10 starts in a row is not that unheard of (I was at the game where Gaylord Perry tried to win his 15th straight game back in 1974), and what was a $100 bet at the start is now $102,400.
I am still under the impression that breaking Martingales is the primary reason for betting limits.
Quote: ThatDonGuyUnlike most Martingales, chances are he was getting better than even money on his bets, but still, a pitcher winning 10 starts in a row is not that unheard of (I was at the game where Gaylord Perry tried to win his 15th straight game back in 1974), and what was a $100 bet at the start is now $102,400. I am still under the impression that breaking Martingales is the primary reason for betting limits.
Yeah, he was getting +200, +220, etc. , but I remember thinking at the time that I wouldn't want to use that progression against Pedro Martinez.
The problem is the massive risk of ruin. We know what optimal betting is (Kelly), anything that significantly exceeds that is insane.
Quote: ThatDonGuyUnlike most Martingales, chances are he was getting better than even money on his bets, but still, a pitcher winning 10 starts in a row is not that unheard of (I was at the game where Gaylord Perry tried to win his 15th straight game back in 1974), and what was a $100 bet at the start is now $102,400.
I am still under the impression that breaking Martingales is the primary reason for betting limits.
It's to manage exposure in general. The casino only has a bank roll of a certain size. I suspect if you walked in to a host and offered to play a martingale strategy for higher than the posted limited, they'd work to offer it. The edge for a casino against a player running a Full Martingale is very nice indeed.
EDIT : I should say "I think it is to..." here... I don't -know- for sure. I am not a casino manager.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI am still under the impression that breaking Martingales is the primary reason for betting limits.
I don't think that's true. The primary reason for betting limits is that the casino has a fixed bankroll just like any other advantage player, and, thus, has a maximum amount of action that they should take on any one bet. Kelly applies to them as well as to you.
Martingales don't need to be "broken", especially by a casino that takes action against several bettors simultaneously. If you bet $10 on red and lose, the casino doesn't care if you bet $20 on red or if you leave and the next guy bets $20 on red. It's all the same to them.
I think that the main purposes that betting limits serve are:
1. At low-mid limits, they keep similar bettors together. The guy betting $500 per hand is in the high limit room getting quality service from a bar with top-shelf liquor, while the guy betting $10 per hand is at a crowded table where a waitress comes along once every 45 minutes if he's lucky and won't bring him anything good.
2. At high limits, it limits the casino's exposure, as I described above. All the edge in the world won't save you if you overbet your bankroll, and that applies to the casino just like it applies to you.
