SARATOGA SYSTEM

Actually wanted to start this thread yesterday. Anyway here goes. Have been looking at Saratoga meet last 4 years. Actually went back 10 years and a high percentage are no longer in Equibase charts. Still had a winning percentage, but a flawed data base.
I always like a story when I bet a horse. Some of my biggest winners came with a story. A trainer at Timonium telling me his horse has the 1 hole and will hang his head over the inner rail on this half mile track. Sure enough, the horse won and in the winners circle I saw whitewash on left hip. I was in line once behind Buddy Delp, trainer of Spectacular Bid. He ber 5K on a first time starter. That's where my last $34 went too. On a $10.60 winner.

Anyway Saratoga Maiden races are full of stories. One winner may end up in a Triple Crown race. The horse that ran second may have to break his maiden after a dozen races in a 5K maiden claiming race. I have found 4 profitable patterns. Thank to Equibase " stable " feature, I can list a horse and get notified when he is entered in a race anywhere in USA or Canada.

My 4 patterns are a Saratoga MSW, who after a couple competitive races drops in MSW at a minor track, like Penn National, Finger Lakes etc. Another play is a hore that shows early speed in his last MSW, then is dropped to Mdn Clm. Another play is a horse than ran a bang up second in a MSW. By Bang Up, I mean he was second by less than 1 and 4 or more back to the show horse. My favorite play is a Satatoga MSW horse than ran 1 or 2 good races, then does not races for months. I assume bucked shins, but Treetop is the expert in that area.

If this system shows a profit and I find the time to research, I might write a book about it. I have only glanced at other MAJOR tracks, but the same pattern appears to work. A horse name Sir Macho ran at Santa Anita friday. He had run back in MSW, then ran a Bang-Op second in a Mdn Clm. And I do mean Bang Up. 2nd by a neck and 8 lengths in the show horse. 9 horse field.

Came back against Mdn Clm, same 1M distance. But ( SIGH) a 6 horse field. Paid $5.40 to win and $12 exacta with 2.10 to 1 second choice.

Had a play Saturday. STROLL TO VICTORY First start at Saratogo MSW ran 2nd to Base Case Scenario, who pressed the pace his next race Grade 2 no less. Third in that race was Bobby's Kitten. In the next race Stroll ran second to Bobby. Bobby's Kitten them won a $200,000 G3 race. Bobby's kitten next ran three in a Breeders cup 1 mile race as the favorite Purse $1,000,000.

So when Stroll was entered in a 1 mile turf MSW at Gulfstream, I hoped to cash. 14 hose field and Stroll went off at 9/2. The favorite was one of those very late closers that I hate. Decided to bet $20 on Stroll and instead of an exacta $20 on Smooth Daddy.
He had run 4th against Stroll, had 34 races since then, still a Maiden. Was headed back to home to post when Melanie called.
She had gone blind for almost 2 minutes walking to bus stop to get my grand daughter. Rushed her to ER, she is on Geodon, and you never know. Per neurologist, atypical migraine ?

Anyway I get home. Smooth Daddy won and paid 35.80 HOORAY >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Stroll finished eight, chart shows 4th 4th 6th 8th. But he was the better horse. BELIEVE ME. Watched replay several times. He was 4th out of gate, laid up 4th inside another horse into first turn. A 60 to 1 shot is 4 on top, Smooth Daddy is 2nd by 3 and 1/2.
Stroll's jockey lets out the reins a bit and off goes Stroll like a shot. He gains 3 lengths quickly and swings slightly out to go past
Daddy.

Then he clips Daddy's heels, goes off stride and forces out Palace Gate, the 14 horse. Once he regains his action, the jockey uses the whip once, sees the race is over and hand rides Stroll down the stretch to 8th place.

So the horse he was about to pass easily wins the race. There is no lock in horse racing, but Stroll sure looks like a winner before clipping heels.

Oh well, better to be lucky than good.

Not many horse players on this forum, but hope WIZ won't mind me staring this thread.

The info in your system sounds like it would probably already be accounted for in the parimutual market. Pretty much everyone who plays horses will notice a horse dropping from a Saratoga MSW to a lesser track MSW.

That said, I have always wanted to visit the Saratoga track... it looks beautiful.

There is an angle that I like, which may tie into yours just slightly.
Any horse that shoes good pace over the 6, then stretches out to a mile or a 1 1/16 mile race will get my money. Obviously this doesn't always work but I find, especially first time starters who are being given a "run" who show pace over a distance which is patently too short for it, will love being stretched out next start and will more than likely also be a decent price.

Quote: Tomspur

There is an angle that I like, which may tie into yours just slightly.
Any horse that shoes good pace over the 6, then stretches out to a mile or a 1 1/16 mile race will get my money. Obviously this doesn't always work but I find, especially first time starters who are being given a "run" who show pace over a distance which is patently too short for it, will love being stretched out next start and will more than likely also be a decent price.

this is actually one of my favorite angles too. Any horse that shows speed in 6f that's stretched out to a 2 turn race will more than likely benefit. I bet that all the time.

Quote: sodawater

this is actually one of my favorite angles too. Any horse that shows speed in 6f that's stretched out to a 2 turn race will more than likely benefit. I bet that all the time.

Great minds think alike :)

This only works in MSW, or lower claiming races. If you try this angle in graded races your 6 furlong speedster will more than likely be sucking for air rounding the top bend :), especially if they are young horses.

look for younger horses (maiden, n2l) etc who sprint, then sprint a second time with a move from the 1/4 to the half and then back away......next time out routing and you have a really good angle....even better if they have a high tomlinson for the route.

Quote: ontariodealer

even better if they have a high tomlinson for the route.

Speaking of rating systems, which one do you guys prefer if any? I have always found them to be BS but that is just me.

I knew Andy Beyers when he was a reporter and later a handicapper on closed circuit tv at Pimlico. I was not impressed. Numbers are just numbers. I like my 4 Saratoga plays because I don't use figures at all. Yes, a lot is factored in at mutuels already, but these plays are strong and often go at the 2 to 7-1 range. And a straight exacta with them on top of the favorite or second choice if they are favored are in the $16-28 for $2 range.
9/2 was a sweet price today, but the horse finished 8th. We will see how sharp average bettors are next race for Stroll For Victory.
But I doubt I will get 2 to 1.

Quote: Buzzard

I knew Andy Beyers when he was a reporter and later a handicapper on closed circuit tv at Pimlico. I was not impressed. Numbers are just numbers. I like my 4 Saratoga plays because I don't use figures at all. Yes, a lot is factored in at mutuels already, but these plays are strong and often go at the 2 to 7-1 range. And a straight exacta with them on top of the favorite or second choice if they are favored are in the $16-28 for $2 range.
9/2 was a sweet price today, but the horse finished 8th. We will see how sharp average bettors are next race for Stroll For Victory.
But I doubt I will get 2 to 1.

Depends on the depth of the filed I would imagine? You are going to get nothing in a 6 horse contest but could get a price in 10 or above?

Here is another question for you Buzz as you have been around a long time. How do you feel about fixed odds betting?

Hey, I am not that old. Seems the toteboard and parimutuel pools started in the 1930's. I did bet fixed odds with the book in Mexico one time. Loved it. Nothing like seeing your horse go offs odds on and you got him at 5/2. Been meaning to look into Betfair or whatever the hell it is. I usually see 1 or 2 favorites a day I would love to book.

I knew a guy who was stuck a bundle to Henry G. This guy was such a loser. I played pool with a jockey who told me he was gonna stiff a horse tomorrow. Pull him in dead last. Well, I tood the loser who talked Henry into letting hum bet the horse for last.

Imagine the surprise when the jockey got hurt in a spill 2 races earlier LOL.

But the horse ran last anyway. But it was a photo finish and the guy had to sweat until the chart came out in the morning paper.

Quote: Tomspur

Depends on the depth of the filed I would imagine? You are going to get nothing in a 6 horse contest but could get a price in 10 or above?

Here is another question for you Buzz as you have been around a long time. How do you feel about fixed odds betting?

Gulfstream MSW turf races usually have big fields. I hate Santa anita because of short fields. 14 ran in this race, with 2 scratches.
Expect at least a 12 horse field next time.

Speaking of parimutuel pools, my Uncle Sharky once bet a horse that paid $0.00 to WIN. Nobody placed a bet on the horse to win at Charlestown. The bookie told Uncle Sharky he was paying him track odds. The next day he paid him $42.00

Quote: Buzzard

Speaking of parimutuel pools, my Uncle Sharky once bet a horse that paid $0.00 to WIN. Nobody placed a bet on the horse to win at Charlestown. The bookie told Uncle Sharky he was paying him track odds. The next day he paid him $42.00

That's funny.

Personally I think there is place in the horse racing arena for both pari mutuel and fixed odds as long as the bookmakers contribute their fare share to the betterment of racing outside of being taxes correctly of course.

I think, and I speak under correction here, that fixed odds betting and consequently operating like a bookmaker, in other words taking back a bet struck with your establishment with another establishment is illegal in the state of Nevada. Perhaps they are concerned about race fixing.....

Betfair is a wonderful platform but you need liquidity for it to be worth it. It works in England because they have a tote but it is super small compared to the bookies. If there are enough people who want to back and lay the horses ni a race then Betfair will be a roaring success.

CLOSET E #4 in 9th at Santa Anita

Super well-bred filly by Street Sense $75,000, showed Early speed in sprint 1 st race, led for 6F in route next race. But off the board
in both. Off the board next 2 races MSW at SA. So on to better things. Owner dropper her to 50K claimers. Ran 2nd, claimed, first horse for new owners. 2 more off the board in MSW. Dropped to 30K and ran a bang up second at 7f, 2nd by a neck and 6lengths back to third. Back in for 30K at 5 1/2 F.

Trainer is DF O'neil, won $7.6 million last year. Jockey is Ed Maldonado won $8.0 million last year.

Looks like owners took 50K flyer on well bred filly, not glad to get rid of her for 30K plus 1st place money.

9/5 on morning line.

Quote: Tomspur

There is an angle that I like, which may tie into yours just slightly.
Any horse that shoes good pace over the 6, then stretches out to a mile or a 1 1/16 mile race will get my money. Obviously this doesn't always work but I find, especially first time starters who are being given a "run" who show pace over a distance which is patently too short for it, will love being stretched out next start and will more than likely also be a decent price.

Popular angle that everybody plays…..hence price gets pounded down. Can't put race handicapping in a box, Mate.

If the horse has shown nothing in many sprint races, connections will throw horse in route race as a Hail Mary attempt……all cheap horses are finally tried in route race before they are alpoized.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Can't put race handicapping in a box, Mate.

THis was not my intention, I hope it didn't come off that way. I have been handicapping horses for long enough to know there are way more factors than just that to take into consideration when handicapping an event BUT it is an ANGLE I like.

Bad horses don't show speed over 6 and then get stretched out. They show no speed over 6, 7, 8, 9 and finally get sent on their way.

I do find it troubling that the American racing system doesn't allow for more marathon events. Those events are generally much weaker and perhaps will allow for some horses to have a new lease on life.

Why is that? Is it because horse players in the US don't like marathons or are the horses simply not bread with stamina in mind?

I think it's the old, because that's the way we do it. Many years ago Bowie slated mostly races of 1 and 1/16 or longer and had full fields and an increased handle. But I don't know of any track that has done it recently.

I love reading these horse racing threads because I only understand about 1/4 of the words that are used.

Quote: Tomspur

THis was not my intention, I hope it didn't come off that way. I have been handicapping horses for long enough to know there are way more factors than just that to take into consideration when handicapping an event BUT it is an ANGLE I like.

Bad horses don't show speed over 6 and then get stretched out. They show no speed over 6, 7, 8, 9 and finally get sent on their way.

I do find it troubling that the American racing system doesn't allow for more marathon events. Those events are generally much weaker and perhaps will allow for some horses to have a new lease on life.

Why is that? Is it because horse players in the US don't like marathons or are the horses simply not bread with stamina in mind?

Bad horses can only carry their speed for 4-5 furlongs at best. The connections always try them in a route race or two just to say they tried.

Very few American horses are bred for marathon racing. Tracks have a difficult if not an impossible time filling long distance races. The money is in the precocious 2 and 3 year old races.

I personally love Steeplechase racing.

Quote: treetopbuddy

I personally love Steeplechase racing.

And I can't stand it....I think it is cruel and should be banned. Great that we can have such polarizing views of the same sport!

Is steeplechase racing any more dangerous? It is just so cool to watch.

Quote: Tomspur

And I can't stand it....I think it is cruel and should be banned. Great that we can have such polarizing views of the same sport!

I get where your coming from……Steeplechase can be brutal. The top horses are simply incredible. The jumps have been lowered in many countries which is a good thing.