Wizard
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Wizard
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February 1st, 2020 at 8:38:21 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is an interesting prop at 5dimes:

Total Tweets from Donald Trump during the game (only tweets from @RealDonaldTrump will count towards grading, kickoff until final whistle)

Trump total tweets during game over ½ 100
Trump total tweets during game under ½ -140



Why did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets? Here are the lines now:

Trump total tweets during game over ½ -265
Trump total tweets during game under ½ +185
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
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February 1st, 2020 at 8:41:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets? Here are the lines now:

Trump total tweets during game over ½ -265
Trump total tweets during game under ½ +185



Because people realized that a Trump spot and Bloomberg spot were airing!

Did you see what happened to ďpurpleĒ as the Gatorade color?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
michael99000
michael99000
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February 1st, 2020 at 9:17:33 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets? Here are the lines now:

Trump total tweets during game over ½ -265
Trump total tweets during game under ½ +185



Probably still a good bet even at that number


Maybe by game time itís over 1.5 -110
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 1st, 2020 at 10:40:03 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Below are the bets that I think have "good value":
1. first score a TD, i haVe a double going for the AFC v NFC game into the Superbowl: $400 @ $2.56 (both legs were $1.60).
2. first score a TD: 1,450 @ $1.60
3. 49ers alternative handicap (-2.5): $400 @ $2.45.
4. 49ers alternative handicap (-5.5): $200 @ $3.10.
5. No 2-pt conversion made: $2,800 @ -280.

"For fun bets":
(i) Mahomes 350 (or more) yards in total, $20 @ $3.75.
(ii) Under 50 (alt total): $30 @ $2.40.
(iii) Coin toss called wrong and coin lands on heads: I took the no*** for $52 @ -260

***: In other words, I win the bet if the coin toss is called correctly, and/or/ if the coin lands on tails.

Note: the bets that are in "Decimal" odds were with an Australian bookie, and the bets in "American" odds were with an overseas bookie.


More bets that i think were "good value" (at least at the time the bets were placed) :
(a) 49ers alternative handicap (-5): $52 @ $3.50.
(b) Kansas City Chiefs -1 / Under 54.5: $300 @ $3.80
(c) Winning margin over 2½ points: $1,113 @ -1113
(d) Winning margin over 3½ points: $1,314 @ -292
(e) Winning margin not 3 7 10 14 17 points: $423 @ -141
(f) Winning margin not 3 7 10 14 points: $397.50 @ -159
(g) Winning margin not 3 7 10 points: $430 @ -215
(h) Winning margin not 3 or 7 points: $800 @ -250

Note: For "(a)", I wanted to get more money down (about $200 or $250 in total) but I was limited at each sportsbook (the books are owned by the same parent company).

Also note: I understand some of the bets that I listed are probably not prop bets (but I didn't want to start a new thread/write a new post, just for a few bets).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 2, 2020
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 2nd, 2020 at 1:37:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets? Here are the lines now:

Trump total tweets during game over ½ -265
Trump total tweets during game under ½ +185



I came across some analysis of the Presidentís tweeting habits during past Superbowls, and they only mentioned one on a Superbowl Sunday, and that one was about golf. Iím not sure if it was during the game. The line at Bovada was at +/- 13.5 tweets on Super bowl Sunday when the article was published on January 20. Iím not sure if the time was based on Eastern time, or wherever the President was. Historically, he hasnít tweeted during the game, but he does have lots of reasons to try to capitalize on it.

Wizard, if you want the over, Iíll take 1 or less during the game (kickoff to final whistle) for +125. If he tweets two or more times, you win $100, if 0 or 1, I win $125. Please acknowledge if you want it.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 2nd, 2020 at 1:48:46 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Because people realized that a Trump spot and Bloomberg spot were airing!



I thought that was known when the under was favored.

Quote:

Did you see what happened to ďpurpleĒ as the Gatorade color?



No, what happened?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 2nd, 2020 at 1:56:12 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Wizard, if you want the over, Iíll take 1 or less during the game (kickoff to final whistle) for +125. If he tweets two or more times, you win $100, if 0 or 1, I win $125. Please acknowledge if you want it.



No way. I show the probability of under 1.5 Tweets at 67.04%, making the fair line on the under -203.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
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February 2nd, 2020 at 3:36:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I thought that was known when the under was favored.



No, what happened?



Purple has gone from the long shot (12 to 1) to favorite. Rumor is that it will be purple in honor of Kobe.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 2nd, 2020 at 6:09:14 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Purple has gone from the long shot (12 to 1) to favorite. Rumor is that it will be purple in honor of Kobe.



Is the normal flavor considered "yellow?"
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
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February 2nd, 2020 at 6:30:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Is the normal flavor considered "yellow?"



Per Fan Duel hereís the history going back to 2001. I couldnít find earlier data. I believe Parcells in the 80s was the start of the Gatorade tradition.

Super Bowl Gatorade Color History by Year (Since 2001)
Year Super Bowl Gatorade color
2019 Super Bowl 53 Blue
2018 Super Bowl 52 Yellow
2017 Super Bowl 51 None
2016 Super Bowl 50 Orange
2015 Super Bowl 49 Blue
2014 Super Bowl 48 Orange
2013 Super Bowl 47 None
2012 Super Bowl 46 Purple
2011 Super Bowl 45 Orange
2010 Super Bowl 44 Orange
2009 Super Bowl 43 Yellow
2008 Super Bowl 42 Clear
2007 Super Bowl 41 Clear
2006 Super Bowl 40 Clear
2005 Super Bowl 39 Clear
2004 Super Bowl 38 None
2003 Super Bowl 37 Purple
2002 Super Bowl 36 None
2001 Super Bowl 35 Yellow
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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