Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets
February 2nd, 2020 at 7:11:36 AM
permalink
I have $20 that says there will be a safety, a two point conversion and overtime.
Looking for the best odds if someone wants to make an offer.
Looking for the best odds if someone wants to make an offer.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
February 2nd, 2020 at 7:45:37 AM
permalink
Absolutely love Kelce over 5.5 receptions at -185 or better.
February 2nd, 2020 at 8:58:25 AM
permalink
Evidently President Trump is hosting a Superbowl party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida. Many tweets during the game seems inevitable.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
February 2nd, 2020 at 9:32:44 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanI have $20 that says there will be a safety, a two point conversion and overtime.
Looking for the best odds if someone wants to make an offer.
Fair odds 200-1 or so? I think even longer. I think the safety makes OT less likely. I think a positive 2 point conversion correlates with OT. The safety against OT.
February 2nd, 2020 at 11:22:10 AM
permalink
Wouldn't a safety and two point conversion break the same way?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
February 2nd, 2020 at 11:47:00 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanWouldn't a safety and two point conversion break the same way?
No, because a safety is a two-point change, whereas a 2-point conversion replaces what would, presumably, be a 1-point conversion, so in effect it is only a 1-point change.
February 2nd, 2020 at 1:14:52 PM
permalink
Quote: billryanI have $20 that says there will be a safety, a two point conversion and overtime.
Looking for the best odds if someone wants to make an offer.
If you haven't had the bet yet, or if someone hasn't already offered you a better deal, I can do 600/1 (all three events must happen for you to win)
As alternatives, I am also offering the props below:
---
"Doubles"
" A two point conversion made and a safety" (both must occur for you to win) = 45/1
"A two point conversion made and game goes to overtime" (both must occur for you to win) = 40/1
"A safety and the game goes to overtime" (both must occur for you to win) = 180/1
---
Single bet offers:
" A two point conversion made" = +250
" Safety scored in game" = +1200
" Game goes to overtime" = +1250
---
Note 1: IMO, there is a "medium correlation" between "A two point conversion made" and " Game going to overtime", so that is why if you multiply the "single bet offer" odds together you will NOT get the same figure as what I am offering for the related "multi-bet(s)".
Note 2: IMO, there is a "negative correlation" between "a safety" and " Game going to overtime", so that is why if you multiply the "single bet offer" odds together you will NOT get the same figure as what I am offering for the related "multi-bet(s)".
Note 3: I used the link here >>> https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_2 <<< to work these odds out (click on "nfl props" to find the odds).
---
General Terms:
My max "combined liabilty" for all the above offers is $15,000 (if billryan rejects the first offer at the top of this post).
My max "combined liabilty" for all offers is $5,000 (if billryan accepts and has $20 on the first offer at the top of this post).
billryan has an hour from this post to accept or reject the "first offer" (the one he specifically requested).
If billryan does NOT reply to this post after 1 hour, then the offers revert to "first come first served" (in other words, anyone can take them).
Odds are not negotiable (in other words, they are the max odds I am willing to offer)
Preferred Method of Payment: Paypal (skrill or bitcoin is also acceptable).
Settlement: within two weeks***
***: If you win, I will pay you in full or $2000 every two weeks until my liability is settled (whichever is less).
----
Update:
so you know that I am not a "welcher", I will pay you up to $500 within 24 hours of you giving me the relevant "method of payment" details, if you win the bet.
---
Update 2:
I have increased some of the "multi-bet" odds after further reflection (see "note 2" in the middle of this post for further details/reasoning).
---
Update 3 (about 217 pm, Pac time)
All offers open for everyone now.
Offers will close when they are either taken or 320 pm, Pacific time (whichever comes first).
---
Update 4 (about 322 pm, Pac time)
All offfers rescinded, as it is after 320 pm (there were no takers).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 2, 2020
February 2nd, 2020 at 1:38:14 PM
permalink
Seeing a prop: tied at halftime +850. That feels high to me given the -1.5 point line.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:03:27 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardWhy did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets?
Does a 'retweet' count? He has a few of those within the last 24 hours. 29 min until kickoff.
The only two recommended props available via FanDuel in IN were:
Tied after first score -> No @ 100
Successful 2-pt conversion -> No @ -330
horrible
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:58:49 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardWhy did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets?
Over . sigh .
February 2nd, 2020 at 6:50:02 PM
permalink
Dang that last call by a hair.
Pressure now on SF
Pressure now on SF
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
February 2nd, 2020 at 9:52:24 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardThis has been a lousy year for prop hunting for me. William Hill had some juicy bets, but the lines had all moved against me by the time I saw them. A few still had value. The following bets are all I have made so far:
Bet Odds Fair Location Last score touchdown -170 -234 William Hill First score touchdown -170 -212 William Hill No KC touchdown in 4th qtr 190 173 William Hill 49'ers first score TD -160 -196 William Hill Game never tied after 0-0 110 -107 William Hill Team with more field goals -- 49'ers 120 100 William Hill No safety -800 -1548 Golden Nugget No overtime -1100 -1614 Golden Nugget No 2-pt conversion -270 -485 Circa
I'm sure there are other things I could bet, but I haven't been out much this year looking.
5-4 on these props. Not bad.
February 3rd, 2020 at 9:29:43 AM
permalink
Quote: michael990005-4 on these props. Not bad.
No, it was not good. The bridge jumpers are easy winners. I admit if you bet on those props, you probably lost overall.
All things considered I made 8% on my money, so I'm happy. Most of it was piggybacking on somebody who I trust to make better bets than me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 3rd, 2020 at 5:03:32 PM
permalink
Quote: SM777Absolutely love Kelce over 5.5 receptions at -185 or better.
And he crushed it with 10 receptions...this one I was tracking until he hit 6, didn't realize he got 4 more receptions after that. Nice Call!!
February 3rd, 2020 at 9:52:42 PM
permalink
What was the official Trump tweet count?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 7th, 2020 at 9:22:59 AM
permalink
Some interesting anecdotes in the Las Vegas Sun as Las Vegas oddsmakers share their favorite Super Bowl stories.
February 7th, 2020 at 10:45:21 AM
permalink
Quote: smoothgrhSome interesting anecdotes in the Las Vegas Sun as Las Vegas oddsmakers share their favorite Super Bowl stories.
It is interesting to me that Jay Rood mentions that he had a monitor with a faster feed than the one shown on the big screen. I wonder why they would need that???
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 9th, 2020 at 8:52:23 PM
permalink
Quote: AyecarumbaQuote: smoothgrhSome interesting anecdotes in the Las Vegas Sun as Las Vegas oddsmakers share their favorite Super Bowl stories.
It is interesting to me that Jay Rood mentions that he had a monitor with a faster feed than the one shown on the big screen. I wonder why they would need that???
I think it's just luck regarding how the signal is set up. Over-the-air antenna is the fastest, cable is a few seconds behind, and satellite is slowest—based on talking to someone on the phone who was watching the same game years ago with a different television service.
Also, radio broadcasts are usually faster than television, because we liked listening to the local play-by-play sportscasters instead of the national announcers, and the time lag is quite noticeable.
February 9th, 2020 at 11:09:13 PM
permalink
Quote: AyecarumbaQuote: smoothgrhSome interesting anecdotes in the Las Vegas Sun as Las Vegas oddsmakers share their favorite Super Bowl stories.
It is interesting to me that Jay Rood mentions that he had a monitor with a faster feed than the one shown on the big screen. I wonder why they would need that???
Whether it is luck or not, it is an advantage for him to have a "faster feed" if they offer "live betting" ***.
I work at a couple of racecourses in Australia, and there are two "live" feeds, one is on the local "race-club" channel and the other is on Sky racing.
Sky racing is about 5 seconds behind the "race-club" channel, and I know of at least one person who uses the local feed to his advantage by "betting live".
***: Don't know if this is the main/only reason they have two feeds, but it would be the main reason I would want as fast a feed as possible.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 9, 2020
