Fire bet: Calculating the odds.
February 12th, 2010 at 12:29:43 PM
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The wiz of odds used simulation to calculate the odds on the fire bet. Isn't there a way to calculate them using just math? I tryed and came up with the following(it doesn't add up to 1 due to rounding):
0 points = 0.5939393939
1 point = 0.2607504920
2 points = 0.1012753555
3 points = 0.0334342122
4 points = 0.0087981784
5 points = 0.0016399331
6 points = 0.0001624347
0 points = 0.5939393939
1 point = 0.2607504920
2 points = 0.1012753555
3 points = 0.0334342122
4 points = 0.0087981784
5 points = 0.0016399331
6 points = 0.0001624347
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
February 12th, 2010 at 1:05:17 PM
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If the Wiz couldn't figure it out using math, there's a reason why.
Part of that reason is because it's too hard to figure into it all the extra points made along the way.
Remember, a FireBet is 4, 5, or 6 DIFFERENT points.
Part of that reason is because it's too hard to figure into it all the extra points made along the way.
Remember, a FireBet is 4, 5, or 6 DIFFERENT points.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 12th, 2010 at 2:42:01 PM
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I believe the reason this bet is nearly impossible to calculate is because the bet is dependent on itself. Such as hitting 456 has different odds than 654. In order to calculate this youd have to calculate each situation independently.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
February 12th, 2010 at 3:22:36 PM
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I get the following, which is exactly consistent with miplet to the precision given. This isn't rocket surgery. And no, the order of the points does not matter.
0 points = 98/165
1 point = 78834/302335
2 points = 1970803095086/19459848690711
3 points = 1308430294936495236340268/39134473632501557375602251
4 points = 397827275553303559561275300153332123/45217004661600798293395811871070645620
5 points = 205475014116867547145317940818694649261505/125294750887234054523299013860064832861616986
6 points = 3700403899126040038831518494284887738125/22780863797678919004236184338193605974839452
0 points = 98/165
1 point = 78834/302335
2 points = 1970803095086/19459848690711
3 points = 1308430294936495236340268/39134473632501557375602251
4 points = 397827275553303559561275300153332123/45217004661600798293395811871070645620
5 points = 205475014116867547145317940818694649261505/125294750887234054523299013860064832861616986
6 points = 3700403899126040038831518494284887738125/22780863797678919004236184338193605974839452
February 12th, 2010 at 5:18:55 PM
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BTW, the reference to rocket surgery was not a dig at the Wizard, whose sites are excellent, but rather a dig at the notion that because he hasn't computed the exact probabilities of a horrible sucker bet, it must be infeasible.
I'll go ahead and explain why the calulation is feasible. There are only 2^6=64 possible states once the fire bet has started, as you either have or have not made each of the 6 points. For each of these 64 states, it is easy to calculate the probability of getting to each possibile new state, and the probability of remaining at the same state. There are no loops (because you can only make new points or seven out), so it really is then just a direct calculation of the probability of reaching each state and ending the bet on each state. (In contrast, if there were loops then treatment as a Markov chain would be required.)
I'll go ahead and explain why the calulation is feasible. There are only 2^6=64 possible states once the fire bet has started, as you either have or have not made each of the 6 points. For each of these 64 states, it is easy to calculate the probability of getting to each possibile new state, and the probability of remaining at the same state. There are no loops (because you can only make new points or seven out), so it really is then just a direct calculation of the probability of reaching each state and ending the bet on each state. (In contrast, if there were loops then treatment as a Markov chain would be required.)
February 12th, 2010 at 5:22:37 PM
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You can also make REPEAT point, (or seven out while trying to repeat.)Quote: ZPPThere are no loops (because you can only make new points or seven out)....
As I already pointed out, the FireBet is paid after making 4, 5, or 6 DIFFERENT points.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 12th, 2010 at 6:15:19 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearYou can also make REPEAT point, (or seven out while trying to repeat.)Quote: ZPPThere are no loops (because you can only make new points or seven out)....
Yes, technically I meant that there are no loops other than self-loops, as was already implied by stating that the probability of remaining at the same state can easily be calculated. It is trivial to deal with. If the probability of remaining at the same state is p, just adjust the other events at that state by a factor of 1/(1-p).
Quote: DJTeddyBearAs I already pointed out, the FireBet is paid after making 4, 5, or 6 DIFFERENT points.
Yes, that is why there are 64 states rather than 7 states (0 through 6).
February 16th, 2010 at 11:18:35 PM
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i actually work for a prominent CT casino that just took the bet out because they believed they were losing money on it.
February 16th, 2010 at 11:39:07 PM
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edit4313-1
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
February 17th, 2010 at 4:47:37 AM
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Hmmm.... There are only two casinos in CT, and to the best of my knowledge, only one had the FireBet. I wonder which casino you're not naming.... ;)Quote: SammyJankisi actually work for a prominent CT casino that just took the bet out because they believed they were losing money on it.
When I was in Vegas in September, I stayed at Sahara. They have the FireBet mentioned on the in-room TV channel that features the casino, but it's not on the table, so I asked. They said it had been taken out a year prior. The reason? Not that they were losing money on the bet, but that they were losing money during the time that the table was shut down for surveilance review each time it hit.
It wasn't just the time that the table was closed, although that probably didn't help. Too many people, who otherwise would be giving some winnings back while thinking the hot streak wasn't over, had to wait and had time to think, and would cash in after getting paid.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 17th, 2010 at 7:00:11 AM
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They really shut the table every time it was hit? Even just 4 points? I've been at tables in AC and personally won on the 5 points, (I think I've only seen the 6 and not cashed myself), and they never stopped the action. (Maybe a minute for the 6, just because of the high payouts and Orange and purple going out to several people.) Seems silly, since they don't do that if someone hits 4 or 5 points when they are the same. Or if someone gets on a hot streak and the fire bet isn't on the table...It's funny that they'd think the WORST bet on the table would be the one being manipulated if someone could cheat the house. It should be the last bet to tamper with.
February 17th, 2010 at 7:34:20 AM
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Just for hitting all 6. And you're right, it wasn't long. Less than 5 minutes.Quote: cclub79They really shut the table every time it was hit?
But it was long enough for people to fear that the inerruption itself killed the continuation of the hot streak. And plenty long enough particulrarly for people that didn't place the FireBet bet and weren't waiting for anything other than the action to resume.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 17th, 2010 at 8:07:01 AM
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Casino Managers - a breed that shows common sense isnt common any more. Yes it is a sweeping generalisation, and there are a few good ones, but they are few and far between.
Personally, after the points had been hit 3 times I would have surveillance watching the table already in real time, if they were not already doing so, negating the need for table closures, and any problems could be communicated to the pit.
I may be over simplifying matters, my experience coming from working in a small casino where apart from continuously recording cameras, the only live surveillance is the Dealers, Inspectors, and Pit Bosses.
Personally, after the points had been hit 3 times I would have surveillance watching the table already in real time, if they were not already doing so, negating the need for table closures, and any problems could be communicated to the pit.
I may be over simplifying matters, my experience coming from working in a small casino where apart from continuously recording cameras, the only live surveillance is the Dealers, Inspectors, and Pit Bosses.
[This space is intentionally left blank]
February 17th, 2010 at 8:47:01 AM
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I only saw it once - and I wasn't at the table.
But I *think* the delay might have been partially due to paperwork. I.E. Swipe everyone's player card, tax forms, etc.
---
On the flip side, my wife won $12,000 at Let It Ride and the table was shut for about 30 minutes.
I was next to a poker table that hit a Bad Beat jackpot. That took close to an hour!
---
Of course, I guess each casino is different when it comes to those kinds of delays due to paperwork procedures.
But I *think* the delay might have been partially due to paperwork. I.E. Swipe everyone's player card, tax forms, etc.
---
On the flip side, my wife won $12,000 at Let It Ride and the table was shut for about 30 minutes.
I was next to a poker table that hit a Bad Beat jackpot. That took close to an hour!
---
Of course, I guess each casino is different when it comes to those kinds of delays due to paperwork procedures.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 17th, 2010 at 8:54:52 AM
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Yeah, I did forget that it's a 1000 for 1 on 5 bucks so it's like a slot machine I guess. Probably the same thing for a Carib Stud Jackpot. Again, that would make it less about the eye in the sky thinking something fishy is going on and more about all the IRS and whatnot. Especially since it's one of the few times there are a lot of players that win a "jackpot" at the exact same time. But that's only for all 6. If they make you do the IRS dance for 5 points (which they didn't do when I hit it), since a 5 dollar bet pays $1250, I think I'll bet $4 max.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:20:27 AM
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Quote: cclub79If they make you do the IRS dance for 5 points (which they didn't do when I hit it), since a 5 dollar bet pays $1250, I think I'll bet $4 max.
Not sure, and maybe somebody else can comment on it, but I think the $1200 W-2G 'threshold' only applies to slots. For table games the threshold is some kind of ratio between amount bet and amount won.
For example, if you bet $600 on a hand of blackjack and win $1200, you're not going to get a W-2G.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
February 17th, 2010 at 9:28:30 AM
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Yep.
When my wife hit her Straight Flush at Let It Ride, she got a W2-G just for the jackpot portion. I.E. The couple thousand she won off that $1 side bet.
Even though it makes sense, I still think it's odd.
It was a single hand, but the W2-G was for only part of the bet.
When my wife hit her Straight Flush at Let It Ride, she got a W2-G just for the jackpot portion. I.E. The couple thousand she won off that $1 side bet.
Even though it makes sense, I still think it's odd.
It was a single hand, but the W2-G was for only part of the bet.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 17th, 2010 at 9:30:02 AM
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Now that I think again, I believe it has something to do with being a 300 to 1 payoff or more, from my days hitting Pick 6's at the track. Be careful with Electronic Table Games. I split and doubled at a PA Casino and won more than $1200, even though the bet was $280 I believe, and they made me fill out the form. First, I didn't even WIN $1200, I was PAID $1680 on a bet of $840, but they said those were the rules. I was quite angry, and they said "Yeah, they are talking about changing it..."
February 17th, 2010 at 11:30:25 AM
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Speaking about irrational casino behavior, get this:
At Cache Creek Casino in Yolo County, CA, they play craps with dice and cards. They have two decks of 36 cards; each card has a picture of a dice combination. The deck represents "the perfect 36". One deck is in the shuffling machine while another is dealt from, one card in a blue square and one in a red square. The red die has only 4s and 1s, the blue die 3s and 2s. The "shooter" rolls the dice; if the red die has the higher number, the red card is turned over, giving the result, else the blue card is turned over. Each deck is used just once, so there is no "replacement" issue.
They started this game in 2004, IIRC. When I first played there, they dealt the two cards into the boxes, then the dice were rolled and the appropriate card turned over. Fine. Once you got used to not trying to interpret the dice as the result, it was just like regular craps, a bit slower. Assuming the shuffling machine truly randomizes the cards, the dice roll is just a way to get the players involved and make it closer to real craps. Even if the shooter could control the dice, he/she wouldn't know which card was more advantageous to pick. Even if the shooter could somehow know what the two cards were, the dice are still random. However:
A year or so ago I went out there, not having been for several months. Now, when they dealt the two cards, they put them both face down in the red square with a red plastic card covering them. After the dice roll, the stick moved the red plastic card, moved the top card into the blue square, and turned over the card "pointed to" by the higher die.
I asked the box when they started doing that, and he said, "We've always done that." I said, "No, you haven't; I was here when the game opened and you used to deal the cards directly into the two boxes." He said that the casino management got paranoid and didn't want the players to be able to see the tops of the cards before rolling the dice!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
At Cache Creek Casino in Yolo County, CA, they play craps with dice and cards. They have two decks of 36 cards; each card has a picture of a dice combination. The deck represents "the perfect 36". One deck is in the shuffling machine while another is dealt from, one card in a blue square and one in a red square. The red die has only 4s and 1s, the blue die 3s and 2s. The "shooter" rolls the dice; if the red die has the higher number, the red card is turned over, giving the result, else the blue card is turned over. Each deck is used just once, so there is no "replacement" issue.
They started this game in 2004, IIRC. When I first played there, they dealt the two cards into the boxes, then the dice were rolled and the appropriate card turned over. Fine. Once you got used to not trying to interpret the dice as the result, it was just like regular craps, a bit slower. Assuming the shuffling machine truly randomizes the cards, the dice roll is just a way to get the players involved and make it closer to real craps. Even if the shooter could control the dice, he/she wouldn't know which card was more advantageous to pick. Even if the shooter could somehow know what the two cards were, the dice are still random. However:
A year or so ago I went out there, not having been for several months. Now, when they dealt the two cards, they put them both face down in the red square with a red plastic card covering them. After the dice roll, the stick moved the red plastic card, moved the top card into the blue square, and turned over the card "pointed to" by the higher die.
I asked the box when they started doing that, and he said, "We've always done that." I said, "No, you haven't; I was here when the game opened and you used to deal the cards directly into the two boxes." He said that the casino management got paranoid and didn't want the players to be able to see the tops of the cards before rolling the dice!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
February 17th, 2010 at 11:56:44 AM
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I have hit the fire bet for 5 a couple of times, and it didn't slow it down but for a minute or 2. and no w2g. But hit 6 in Tunica and it took a long time to get the w2g and paperwork filled out, but the table was rolling after a couple of minutes(they wanted to get some money back). I think that either 5 or 6 people had hit it.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:03:04 PM
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So they got the table reopened quickly, but delayed the payment and paperwork? Sounds like the right thing to do.
Like I said, every casino has it's own set of procedures.
Like I said, every casino has it's own set of procedures.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 19th, 2010 at 1:44:24 PM
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There is actually 2 1/2 casino's. Mohegan, foxwoods, and MGM grand@ foxwoods. I have delt the game for almost 4 years with the fire bet(2 different casinos) and ive only witnessed it about 7-8 times, and have only paid out a single $5000 sum one time. But i did witness an odd occurance of seeing 6 points hit twice on one game and once on a second table within a 3 hour span. anyone know the odds on that when only 3 tables are open. lol.
February 19th, 2010 at 9:00:43 PM
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Are you serious?Quote: SammyJankisThere is actually 2 1/2 casino's. Mohegan, foxwoods, and MGM grand@ foxwoods.
PLEASE tell me that that's some PR BS and not something you came up with on your own.
For those that don't know:
About 1 1/2 years ago, Foxwoods opened their third casino, the MGM Grand at Foxwoods. All 3 are at the same location, but they are distinct and separate. Some people would consider them to simply be different rooms. These rooms have slots as well as table games, but they are quite a distance apart. Around 1/2 mile? At the same location, between the two older casinos, are several slot only rooms. Some of the P.R. material counts EACH of the rooms as another casino. So in some materials, Foxwoods has upwards of 10 casinos!
Yeah, the PR considers the MGM Grand Casino and Hotel to be separate from Foxwoods. Gamblers wouldn't. Heck, they use the same chips, etc.
By contrast, Mohegan Sun has two distinct casinos (or rooms), both complete with slots and tables, on opposite ends of the building. Between the two are all the shops and restaurants and hotel. About a year ago they opened a third casino, also with slots and tables. It's in the back of one of the existing casinos. A casual observer wouldn't even realize that the room was expanded. Someone who has experience there would, but without looking at the maps, wouldn't realize that it's considered a separate casino.
So, depending on how you count, at these two locations 9 miles apart are CT's only 2, 5, 6 or 12 casinos!
(BTW: I might have the timeline a little wrong.)
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 19th, 2010 at 9:24:20 PM
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yes its PR BS. Mainly derived from if you work for said casino and would like to consider it seperate from the actual foxwoods property.
your timeline is relatively accurate. may 17 2008.
your timeline is relatively accurate. may 17 2008.
July 12th, 2010 at 12:12:44 PM
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My thanks to miplet and ZPP. Thanks to your suggestions I worked out an exact solution, and agree with your results.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 4th, 2010 at 11:05:23 AM
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Wow, that's fine and excruciating work.
I did the first three cases via Excel this morning (0 points, 1 point, 2 points, 3 or more points) and got the same results. That was so messy ... I just lost my patience to finish it ...
Surely there is an easier way that enumerating the 6 dimensional cube.
Also, using (1 - X1 - X2)^(-1) ... etc ...
I suppose some nifty data structure, and following all the paths, would do it pretty quickly ... maybe even recursion ...
Sheesh! I'm a long way from Kansas today ...
--Dorothy
I did the first three cases via Excel this morning (0 points, 1 point, 2 points, 3 or more points) and got the same results. That was so messy ... I just lost my patience to finish it ...
Surely there is an easier way that enumerating the 6 dimensional cube.
Also, using (1 - X1 - X2)^(-1) ... etc ...
I suppose some nifty data structure, and following all the paths, would do it pretty quickly ... maybe even recursion ...
Sheesh! I'm a long way from Kansas today ...
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
August 4th, 2010 at 11:54:47 AM
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I could put my spreadsheet on GoogleDocs if anyone requests it.
The basic idea is there are 2^6=64 possible states, for whether or not the shooter already made each of the 6 points. You have to calculate the probability of each state leading to the other states it could go to directly from there. I had to do some fancy stuff with vlookup statements and index numbers to automate the process.
The basic idea is there are 2^6=64 possible states, for whether or not the shooter already made each of the 6 points. You have to calculate the probability of each state leading to the other states it could go to directly from there. I had to do some fancy stuff with vlookup statements and index numbers to automate the process.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 4th, 2010 at 11:54:59 AM
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Dorothy, will you please show your calculations?
August 4th, 2010 at 12:30:10 PM
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Quote: WizardI could put my spreadsheet on GoogleDocs if anyone requests it.
The basic idea is there are 2^6=64 possible states, for whether or not the shooter already made each of the 6 points. You have to calculate the probability of each state leading to the other states it could go to directly from there. I had to do some fancy stuff with vlookup statements and index numbers to automate the process.
Thanks Wizard. Consider it requested.
It is nice to see how others do difficult calculations using Excel instead of simulations. Especially from those who can do it well.
And more challenged math folks like myself learn a lot from it.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 4th, 2010 at 12:58:38 PM
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Quote: 7crapsConsider it requested.
Consider it done.
Here is the link http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjxTd62nlHn6dExNRzdCR2VnT0UzMGpQNHJUdUwtSVE&hl=en. There is a comment in cell Z3 of the "math" sheet that explains a little how I did it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 4th, 2010 at 6:35:55 PM
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Excellent
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 4th, 2010 at 6:56:26 PM
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when they put the fire bet in where i deal they told us the house advantage was about 21%......it was put in on a three month trial basis.....the floor had to calculate on paper every win and loss...the three month trial lasted 5 days and the bet became a permanent fixture.
August 4th, 2010 at 7:22:38 PM
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So what are the taxes taken out of a six point hit? That is, bet the fire for $5, hit it, how much do I really collect?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
August 4th, 2010 at 9:13:19 PM
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I think if you are a US citizen they wouldn't withhold anything, but you would get a W2G form.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 5th, 2010 at 4:53:11 AM
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Quote: WizardI think if you are a US citizen they wouldn't withhold anything, but you would get a W2G form.
I do know in MS and LA they take something, so I'm assuming a state tax. Just wondering how much on $5000. Anybody??
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
August 5th, 2010 at 5:44:38 AM
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Quote: DeMangoI do know in MS and LA they take something, so I'm assuming a state tax. Just wondering how much on $5000. Anybody??
I have said this a couple of times, and only speak from personal experience. They start withholding at exactly 5000 and it was 28% federal and sometimes the state takes some too. Because the net win on a fire is actually only 4995, maybe they'd let you slide. But I've had cashiers do different things. For example, I've won 1300 on a 900 pari-mutual ticket, but they still made me sign, because they said that technically I won on a 2 dollar ticket, and lost on 449 other 2 dollar tickets that just happened to be on the same paper. But then they put the price of my bet as $2, and not 900. So I just save all of my losing tickets, and if I get audited, I'll show them all.
August 5th, 2010 at 7:13:59 AM
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We are really getting mixed answers here. One says 28% Federal, Wiz says just a W2G, others, down south, have mentioned state tax only. Still no definitive answer!
And lets make it more complicated. The final point is 4. You lay the 4 for $2000. Your win will be either $3000 or $2200 after vig. No tax on the latter (only a 250 for 1 payout) On the $3000 win do you pay taxes on $3000 or $5000?? Where is a good tax man when you need him??
I will be in Mississippi next week, I'll play some with Loveman's minions and will ask a TGS there for the local poop. Last week I forgot once to bet the sob and you just know I made 5 points. I can't even describe how sick to my stomach I was.....
And lets make it more complicated. The final point is 4. You lay the 4 for $2000. Your win will be either $3000 or $2200 after vig. No tax on the latter (only a 250 for 1 payout) On the $3000 win do you pay taxes on $3000 or $5000?? Where is a good tax man when you need him??
I will be in Mississippi next week, I'll play some with Loveman's minions and will ask a TGS there for the local poop. Last week I forgot once to bet the sob and you just know I made 5 points. I can't even describe how sick to my stomach I was.....
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
August 5th, 2010 at 10:25:23 AM
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I think I may have been wrong before. If the gross payout is OVER $5000 and is a 300-1 longshort or more, then I think they withhold 28% in taxes.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 5th, 2010 at 11:06:04 AM
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When my wife hit a straight flush and won $12,000 at Let It Ride a few years back, she got a W2-G on the bonus bet, but not on the basic bet. Pit boss said it was because the bonus bet paid over X:1, the basic bet was under. But nothing was withheld. That was at Foxwoods. (I forget what the 'X' was.)
It sounds like we're going to have trouble getting a definitive answer. Maybe different casinos, or at least different states, have different rules.
Bottom line: Does it really matter?
Unless you win more than you can legitimately claim as losses, you're not going to pay tax, and will get back anything they withhold. Oh, sure, I'd rather they didn't withhold anything if I'm just gonna get it back, but...
It sounds like we're going to have trouble getting a definitive answer. Maybe different casinos, or at least different states, have different rules.
Bottom line: Does it really matter?
Unless you win more than you can legitimately claim as losses, you're not going to pay tax, and will get back anything they withhold. Oh, sure, I'd rather they didn't withhold anything if I'm just gonna get it back, but...
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 5th, 2010 at 11:21:45 AM
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I was playing poker recently at one of the Stations casinos when the "Jumbo Bad Beat" hit. That's a shared bad beat among all Stations properties (I think four-of-a-kind 8888 or higher has to be beaten. The level of the four-of-a-kind drops as the progressive gets higher). The jackpot was about $152k when it hit. Everyone at *every* property had to fill out a form with our name/address/SSN to get a share. My share was about $250.
I don't like that one bit!
--Dorothy
I don't like that one bit!
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
November 6th, 2011 at 7:16:43 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearJust for hitting all 6. And you're right, it wasn't long. Less than 5 minutes.
But it was long enough for people to fear that the inerruption itself killed the continuation of the hot streak.
It makes one wonder if this "instant replay" delay wasn't a dilatory tactic intended to end the hot streak, much like the "chip-change" ruse that interrupts streaks at many other tables?
November 6th, 2011 at 8:04:18 AM
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This is an old (stale?) thread, but since it was brought back to life, let me ask a question that came to my mind yesterday.
Suppose a crap table offers the fire bet and that a shooter hits all six separate points. Do they pay out, clear the fire bet markers, and let people place new fire bets on that same shooter, or is the fire bet opportunity gone until the next shooter is up? If there had been a fire bet available that day when Patricia Demauro had her monster roll, I suspect people would have been itching for a chance to get a new fire bet down, even if they had passed up on it in the beginning.
From the casino's viewpoint (assuming that they have enough experience that they don't really believe that hot previous rolls are an omen for hot future rolls), it would seem to be a good idea to accept all of those extra potential wagers on a high-house-edge bet. But what do they really do? I've never seen all six points made on a fire bet table.
Suppose a crap table offers the fire bet and that a shooter hits all six separate points. Do they pay out, clear the fire bet markers, and let people place new fire bets on that same shooter, or is the fire bet opportunity gone until the next shooter is up? If there had been a fire bet available that day when Patricia Demauro had her monster roll, I suspect people would have been itching for a chance to get a new fire bet down, even if they had passed up on it in the beginning.
From the casino's viewpoint (assuming that they have enough experience that they don't really believe that hot previous rolls are an omen for hot future rolls), it would seem to be a good idea to accept all of those extra potential wagers on a high-house-edge bet. But what do they really do? I've never seen all six points made on a fire bet table.
November 6th, 2011 at 8:17:41 AM
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The Fire bet is paid ONLY when the shooter had FINALLY sevened-out; it stays up in a "waiting state" waiting to be paid; the payout is activated when shooter loses the dice on a seven out.
If the shooter had already hit all six points - but yet rolls even MORE points, the players will have to wait until the shooter is finished by sevening out, even if the bet was "theoretically completed" earlier.
In other words, you wait, and you better not leave, until the shooter finally sevens out. On a hot roll, it causes the players to wait on payments and logistic problems.
If the shooter had already hit all six points - but yet rolls even MORE points, the players will have to wait until the shooter is finished by sevening out, even if the bet was "theoretically completed" earlier.
In other words, you wait, and you better not leave, until the shooter finally sevens out. On a hot roll, it causes the players to wait on payments and logistic problems.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
November 6th, 2011 at 8:22:48 AM
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Quote: PaigowdanThe Fire bet is paid ONLY when the shooter had FINALLY sevened-out; it stays up in a "waiting state" waiting to be paid; the payout is activated when shooter loses the dice on a seven out.
I guess Doc didn't have a six year old child to read him the rules.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 6th, 2011 at 8:36:24 AM
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Other notes:
1. IF the player rolls for four hours (an absolutely tremendous hand), but had hit all six points a half-hour into the hand, players will wait three and a half hours to collect their Fire bet win.
2. If the shooter passes the dice in the middle of a hand, the bet stays up and continues on with the next shooter. The bet is only "seven-out terminated." The new shooter who continues the hand gets to hold on to the dice through two seven outs as a result: one attributed to the shooter who pass the dice mid-hand, and the new shooter's "purely owned" hand.
3. This is one of the rarer (but more pleasant) logitistical probelms of the bet: if you have to wait, you'll wait through even more winnings, assuming if you're a right-side bettor. If you were a don't pass/DC bettor who used the Fire bet as a hedge, then you'll have to wait through more loses to collect on the Fire bet.
Other problems include:
- Surveillance expense to monitor, as mentioned;
- increase in variance/"dumping" for the house: if the bet hits and payouts out big, the table was by then already dumping from all of the winning pass line, place, come and other bets won in the interim, assuming the vast majority of players are right-side players, which is almost always the case.
- the bet generates modest income, but always aggrevates "house-dumping" scenarios.
- if you have NO other action on the table, you may have to abandon your bet. Some houses don't let you don't let you make the bet and then "not play." What if you have ten players on a crap table, but the only "layout" bet on the table is the shooter's single $3 pass line-line bet? Not a good scenario for the house.
1. IF the player rolls for four hours (an absolutely tremendous hand), but had hit all six points a half-hour into the hand, players will wait three and a half hours to collect their Fire bet win.
2. If the shooter passes the dice in the middle of a hand, the bet stays up and continues on with the next shooter. The bet is only "seven-out terminated." The new shooter who continues the hand gets to hold on to the dice through two seven outs as a result: one attributed to the shooter who pass the dice mid-hand, and the new shooter's "purely owned" hand.
3. This is one of the rarer (but more pleasant) logitistical probelms of the bet: if you have to wait, you'll wait through even more winnings, assuming if you're a right-side bettor. If you were a don't pass/DC bettor who used the Fire bet as a hedge, then you'll have to wait through more loses to collect on the Fire bet.
Other problems include:
- Surveillance expense to monitor, as mentioned;
- increase in variance/"dumping" for the house: if the bet hits and payouts out big, the table was by then already dumping from all of the winning pass line, place, come and other bets won in the interim, assuming the vast majority of players are right-side players, which is almost always the case.
- the bet generates modest income, but always aggrevates "house-dumping" scenarios.
- if you have NO other action on the table, you may have to abandon your bet. Some houses don't let you don't let you make the bet and then "not play." What if you have ten players on a crap table, but the only "layout" bet on the table is the shooter's single $3 pass line-line bet? Not a good scenario for the house.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
November 6th, 2011 at 11:27:36 AM
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Thanks, Dan. I suspect I have never even seen all of the rules for the Fire Bet written down. At the tables where I have played, they seem to describe/offer it very casually. I can't even remember seeing the payouts listed on the tables, and I think they differ from table to table (or have in the past).
November 6th, 2011 at 12:38:22 PM
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Quote: PaigowdanThe Fire bet is paid ONLY when the shooter had FINALLY sevened-out; it stays up in a "waiting state" waiting to be paid; the payout is activated when shooter loses the dice on a seven out.
If the shooter had already hit all six points - but yet rolls even MORE points, the players will have to wait until the shooter is finished by sevening out, even if the bet was "theoretically completed" earlier.
In other words, you wait, and you better not leave, until the shooter finally sevens out. On a hot roll, it causes the players to wait on payments and logistic problems.
I have seen the 6 hit once (no I hadn't bet it) and they paid it immediately. It took about 5 minutes and then the same shooter carried on. That was at the Grand Villa in Vancouver, BC. 2 players had $5 on it and several more had a buck, dealers had about 3 and were quite excited as well. Being Canada tax free money.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
November 6th, 2011 at 12:54:28 PM
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The tax free money is why the payout doesn't take any time in Canada. I've hit six once personally, and they paid it out after I sevenned out (I think I got at least one point after the fire bet was complete). Now, when they're going for the fourth point at my casino, the pit comes over and records the fire bets so there's no confusion come payout time.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
November 6th, 2011 at 1:05:54 PM
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Thanks for the additional info, kenarman.Quote: kenarmanI have seen the 6 hit once (no I hadn't bet it) and they paid it immediately.
I made it to the Edgewater and River Rock casinos on my last visit to Vancouver, back in 2008, but I haven't been to Grand Villa, Starlight, Boulevard, or any of the others in BC. I have enjoyed each visit to the Vancouver area, and perhaps I can get back again some day and check out the other casinos. I would like that.
November 6th, 2011 at 1:43:35 PM
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Quote: kenarmanI have seen the 6 hit once (no I hadn't bet it) and they paid it immediately. It took about 5 minutes and then the same shooter carried on. That was at the Grand Villa in Vancouver, BC. 2 players had $5 on it and several more had a buck, dealers had about 3 and were quite excited as well. Being Canada tax free money.
This is a policy I'd like to see for the U.S. side of the game: if all six points hit - then pay it out and take it down, as no further points can be made.
After the player sevens out, then re-open the bet.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
