shorty
Posted by shorty
Oct 15, 2015

Blackjack,pros please read

so here it is with HI/LOW regular MIT action
I took $1,000 aside from my hard earned money as a construction worker. I have a basic strategy card made for my 8 deck game.it also has 18 deviations.( illustrious 18) so I'm not afraid to use it and play a perfect game.
the game I have best access to is as follows, 8 decks. 3/2 with basic rules. DOA,DAS ,split up to 4 times....dealer HITS soft 17 and there is (((NO surrender))), Insuance is allowed when dealer shows an ACE which I buy at TC+3. The dealers consistently cuts out one deck.oh yeah and the table min is $10.max $500
I figured I had a fair chance using $10 units and after a month or so it grew to 7k at which time I went to $25 units. and noticed more brutal swings. for instance last week I had 12k droped to 8k then I made it all the way to 15k at which time I thought I could go to $50 units.THEN THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENED I lost almost 5k today when the count hovered around TC +7 a few times.
All this was going off of the idea that my unit size should be 1% of my bankroll and to play as many hands/spots as possible. I simply added 1 unit for every true count because I still don't understand (betting spread)
now I'm realizing that I should probably consider lowering my bets if I play 2-3 hands. approx. 72% of what my regular bet would be for each of two hands and 56% of reg for each of three hands.
I guess my question is. Shouldn't I be plenty safe if I lower my units to $25 again now that I have only $10k until I lets say triple this bank roll and be aliitle more carefull in using my new found knowledge about how much bets should decreased if I'm using 2-3 hands.
you see I'm smart but not as smart as ide like to be. so what do YOU think about this fiasco I call my new life.
thank you very much for reading my story and giving any decent advice you may have ;)

Comments

kewlj
kewlj Oct 16, 2015

I take it you didn't like the responses and advice you received on Norm's site. LOL.



Ok, here's the deal. You are severely over betting your bankroll. This is a fatal mistake. If you continue to play at these levels with this bankroll you will go bust. It isn't a matter of 'if' but rather 'when' and really it won't be that long.



Huge misunderstanding on your part is that bankroll should be 100 times unit wager. WAY WRONG! Many books from the 80's and 90's, still useful but now outdated in terms of bankroll and money management advice suggest a bankroll of 100 times MAX BET or top wager, not unit. But changing times and worsening conditions have made even that numbers way too risky for today's games.



To put it in perspective, I set my brother up to play low limit blackjack at the beginning of the year with a bankroll of $10,000. With that bankroll I suggested a max bet of top wager of $80. So he is spreading $10-$80. And really that is too much risk. Blackjack is a game of huge extended swings, where you can lose 30-40 of your top wagers in a day or two and 60-80 in a week. You must have a large bankroll to withstand such swings.



So that's as far as I am going to take you right now. I am not sure where you are at right now, but it looks like you have rolled your $1000 starting BR into $10,000. If that's the case, you were lucky...nothing more. Stop right now and learn about proper money management and betting levels for your bankroll, so you can take advantage of that good fortune and don't just give it back.

pnork
pnork Nov 02, 2015

Shorty - as was mentioned, it seems you didn't like the advice you were given on Norms site. Heed KJ's advice, and if you still don't like it, buy a good book that has a section on Risk of Ruin & Betting Strategy. You can work out what your acceptable RoR is and go from there.

Quote: shorty

I guess my question is. Shouldn't I be plenty safe if I lower my units to $25 again now that I have only $10k until I lets say triple this bank roll....



And this is part of your problem, you are *guessing* what would be a good strategy. Don't *Guess,* know by studying a method working out your optimal bet, given an acceptable RoR.



Good Luck.

pnork
pnork Nov 02, 2015

Excellent. Formatting doesn't work in the Blogs section. Just Brilliant.

Romes
Romes Nov 03, 2015

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but yes you're over betting your BR. To play quarters on an 8D shoe game and spread 10-1 you'd need something like a $30,000 bankroll. If you want to do this full time professionally, I'd suggest more like a $50,000 bankroll.



Hopefully these should answer all of your questions about bankroll, spread, and how to calculate exactly what your EV is, so you KNOW you're not going to go bust and you KNOW you have a winning game:



http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/