nope27's Blog

Posted by nope27
Mar 10, 2011

Last words

From the end of my last post at:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/4688-odds-on-6-7-8/

Back to your regularly scheduled program.
Not bad English for a Spaniard.

My Mother passed away last month, my Father this past Saturday, looks like it is my turn.
Turn, turn, turn

Enjoy the math of gambling everyone
Thank you Wizard for allowing me a personal Blog on your site.

Comments

Ayecarumba Mar 10, 2011

I am sad to hear about your double loss nope27. Please know that my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family during this difficult time.

Wizard Mar 10, 2011

You're welcome.

I'm also sorry about your double loss. Take some time with that; you're welcome back any time. I take it your closing is a reference to Ecclesiastes chapter 3. This is your time to mourn and weep. There is also a time to laugh and dance. Don't forget that.

odiousgambit Mar 11, 2011

so often when one goes, the other goes soon after.

Condolences.

Posted by nope27
Sep 26, 2010

Roulette 00 Wheel "at least 1" number NOT hitting

The below table is for the probability of NOT hitting "at least 1" number in x spins.
formula used from:http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/roulette.html
question #2 at WoO.

Wizards' Example: for "at least 1" number NOT hitting in 200 spins
Sum i=1 to 37 [(-1)^(i+1) × combin(38,i) × ((38-i)/38)^38] = 16.9845715651245%

	Prob of "at least 1"		Prob of "at least 1"	expected
spins	Not Hitting	spins	Not Hitting	# of spins
50	0.999999975489	200	0.169846	1177.5
55	0.999999272776	205	0.150105	1365.7
60	0.999990736518	210	0.132494	1585.0
65	0.999933186420	215	0.116822	1840.4
70	0.999678962024	220	0.102907	2137.9
75	0.998859296229	225	0.090574	2484.2
80	0.996782096871	230	0.079661	2887.2
85	0.992419788336	235	0.070019	3356.2
90	0.984526581332	240	0.061510	3901.8
95	0.971855305521	245	0.054009	4536.3
100	0.953397	250	0.047403	5273.9
105	0.928566	255	0.041590	6131.3
110	0.897287	260	0.036478	7127.7
115	0.859979	265	0.031985	8285.2
120	0.817465	270	0.028039	9629.6
125	0.770840	275	0.024574	11190.6
130	0.721334	280	0.021534	13002.9
135	0.670186	285	0.018866	15106.3
140	0.618557	290	0.016527	17547.0
145	0.567464	295	0.014476	20378.5
150	0.517748	300	0.012678	23662.6
151	0.508031	305	0.011103	27471.0
152	0.498401	310	0.009722	31886.3
153	0.488861	315	0.008513	37004.2
154	0.479415	320	0.007453	42935.5
155	0.470067	325	0.006525	49808.0
160	0.424903	330	0.005712	57769.6
165	0.382575	335	0.005001	66991.2
170	0.343269	340	0.004377	77670.3
175	0.307056	345	0.003832	90035.1
180	0.273919	350	0.003354	104349.3
185	0.243775	355	0.002936	120917.4
190	0.216494	360	0.002570	140091.3
195	0.191911	365	0.002249	162277.1
		370	0.001969	187944.2
		375	0.001723	217634.2
		380	0.001508	251972.6
		385	0.001320	291681.5
		390	0.001155	337594.3
		395	0.001011	390673.0
		400	0.000885	452027.8

Posted by nope27
Sep 22, 2010

Roulette Probability single 0 wheel

Roulette Probability Table for 1/37 (single 0 wheel)

Roulette probability	1/37	at least
Spins	Single # chance	Split bet (2 numbers)	Street bet (3 # chance)	corner bet (4 # chance)	5#s	Line Bet (6 # chance)	Dozen bet (12 # chance)	Even Money 18 numbers	Spins
0	0.000%		0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0
1	2.703%	5.405%	8.108%	10.811%	13.514%	16.216%	32.432%	48.649%	1
2	5.332%	10.519%	15.559%	20.453%	25.201%	29.803%	54.346%	73.630%	2
3	7.891%	15.355%	22.405%	29.053%	35.309%	41.186%	69.153%	86.459%	3
4	10.380%	19.931%	28.697%	36.723%	44.051%	50.723%	79.157%	93.046%	4
5	12.803%	24.259%	34.478%	43.563%	51.612%	58.714%	85.917%	96.429%	5
6	15.159%	28.353%	39.791%	49.665%	58.151%	65.409%	90.485%	98.166%	6
7	17.452%	32.226%	44.673%	55.106%	63.806%	71.019%	93.571%	99.058%	7
8	19.683%	35.889%	49.159%	59.960%	68.697%	75.718%	95.656%	99.516%	8
9	21.854%	39.355%	53.281%	64.288%	72.927%	79.656%	97.065%	99.752%	9
10	23.966%	42.633%	57.069%	68.149%	76.586%	82.955%	98.017%	99.872%	10
11	26.021%	45.734%	60.550%	71.592%	79.750%	85.719%	98.660%	99.935%	11
12	28.020%	48.667%	63.748%	74.664%	82.486%	88.035%	99.095%	99.966%	12
13	29.966%	51.442%	66.688%	77.403%	84.853%	89.975%	99.388%	99.983%	13
14	31.859%	54.067%	69.389%	79.846%	86.900%	91.601%	99.587%	99.991%	14
15	33.700%	56.549%	71.871%	82.024%	88.670%	92.963%	99.721%	99.995%	15
16	35.492%	58.898%	74.152%	83.968%	90.201%	94.104%	99.811%		16
17	37.236%	61.120%	76.247%	85.701%	91.525%	95.060%	99.872%		17
18	38.932%	63.222%	78.173%	87.247%	92.671%	95.861%	99.914%		18
19	40.582%	65.210%	79.943%	88.626%	93.661%	96.532%	99.942%		19
20	42.188%	67.090%	81.569%	89.855%	94.518%	97.095%	99.961%		20
21	43.751%	68.869%	83.064%	90.952%	95.259%	97.566%	99.973%		21
22	45.271%	70.552%	84.437%	91.930%	95.899%	97.961%	99.982%		22
23	46.750%	72.144%	85.699%	92.803%	96.453%	98.291%	99.988%		23
24	48.189%	73.649%	86.858%	93.581%	96.933%	98.568%	99.992%		24
25	49.590%	75.074%	87.924%	94.275%	97.347%	98.801%	99.994%		25
26	50.952%	76.421%	88.903%	94.894%	97.706%	98.995%	99.996%		26
27	52.278%	77.696%	89.803%	95.446%	98.016%	99.158%			27
28	53.568%	78.901%	90.630%	95.938%	98.284%	99.295%			28
29	54.822%	80.042%	91.389%	96.377%	98.516%	99.409%			29
30	56.043%	81.121%	92.087%	96.769%	98.716%	99.505%			30
31	57.231%	82.141%	92.729%	97.118%	98.890%	99.585%			31
32	58.387%	83.106%	93.319%	97.430%	99.040%	99.652%			32
33	59.512%	84.020%	93.860%	97.708%	99.170%	99.709%			33
34	60.606%	84.883%	94.358%	97.955%	99.282%	99.756%			34
35	61.671%	85.700%	94.816%	98.176%	99.379%	99.796%			35
36	62.707%	86.473%	95.236%	98.374%	99.463%	99.829%			36
37	63.715%	87.205%	95.622%	98.549%	99.535%	99.856%			37
38	64.696%	87.896%	95.977%	98.706%	99.598%	99.880%			38
39	65.650%	88.551%	96.303%	98.846%	99.652%	99.899%			39
40	66.578%	89.169%	96.603%	98.971%	99.699%	99.916%			40
41	67.481%	89.755%	96.878%	99.082%	99.740%	99.929%			41
42	68.360%	90.309%	97.132%	99.181%	99.775%	99.941%			42
43	69.215%	90.832%	97.364%	99.270%	99.806%	99.950%			43
44	70.047%	91.328%	97.578%	99.349%	99.832%	99.958%			44
45	70.857%	91.797%	97.774%	99.419%	99.855%	99.965%			45
46	71.645%	92.240%	97.955%	99.482%	99.874%	99.971%			46
47	72.411%	92.660%	98.121%	99.538%	99.891%	99.976%			47
48	73.157%	93.056%	98.273%	99.588%	99.906%	99.980%			48
49	73.882%	93.432%	98.413%	99.632%	99.919%	99.983%			49
50	74.588%	93.787%	98.542%	99.672%	99.930%	99.986%			50
51	75.275%	94.123%	98.660%	99.708%	99.939%	99.988%			51
52	75.943%	94.440%	98.769%	99.739%	99.947%	99.990%			52
53	76.593%	94.741%	98.868%	99.767%	99.954%	99.992%			53
54	77.226%	95.025%	98.960%	99.793%	99.961%	99.993%			54
55	77.841%	95.294%	99.044%	99.815%	99.966%	99.994%			55
56	78.440%	95.548%	99.122%	99.835%	99.971%	99.995%			56
57	79.023%	95.789%	99.193%	99.853%	99.975%				57
58	79.590%	96.017%	99.259%	99.869%	99.978%				58
59	80.142%	96.232%	99.319%	99.883%	99.981%				59
60	80.678%	96.436%	99.374%	99.896%	99.984%				60
61	81.200%	96.628%	99.425%	99.907%	99.986%				61
62	81.709%	96.811%	99.471%	99.917%	99.988%				62
63	82.203%	96.983%	99.514%	99.926%	99.989%				63
64	82.684%	97.146%	99.554%	99.934%	99.991%				64
65	83.152%	97.300%	99.590%	99.941%	99.992%				65
66	83.607%	97.446%	99.623%	99.947%	99.993%				66
67	84.050%	97.584%	99.654%	99.953%	99.994%				67
68	84.481%	97.715%	99.682%	99.958%	99.995%				68
69	84.901%	97.838%	99.707%	99.963%	99.996%				69
70	85.309%	97.955%	99.731%	99.967%	99.996%				70
71	85.706%	98.066%	99.753%	99.970%	99.997%				71
72	86.092%	98.170%	99.773%	99.974%	99.997%				72
73	86.468%	98.269%	99.791%	99.976%	99.998%				73
74	86.834%	98.363%	99.808%	99.979%	99.998%				74
75	87.190%	98.451%	99.824%	99.981%	99.998%				75
76	87.536%	98.535%	99.838%	99.983%	99.998%				76
77	87.873%	98.614%	99.851%	99.985%	99.999%				77
78	88.201%	98.689%	99.863%	99.987%	99.999%				78
79	88.519%	98.760%	99.874%	99.988%	99.999%				79
80	88.830%	98.827%	99.885%	99.989%	99.999%				80
81	89.132%	98.890%	99.894%	99.991%					81
82	89.425%	98.950%	99.903%	99.992%					82
83	89.711%	99.007%	99.910%	99.992%					83
84	89.989%	99.061%	99.918%	99.993%					84
85	90.260%	99.112%	99.924%	99.994%					85
86	90.523%	99.160%	99.931%	99.995%					86
87	90.779%	99.205%	99.936%	99.995%					87
88	91.028%	99.248%	99.941%	99.996%					88
89	91.271%	99.289%	99.946%	99.996%					89
90	91.507%	99.327%	99.950%	99.997%					90
91	91.736%	99.363%	99.954%	99.997%					91
92	91.960%	99.398%	99.958%	99.997%					92
93	92.177%	99.430%	99.962%	99.998%					93
94	92.388%	99.461%	99.965%	99.998%					94
95	92.594%	99.490%	99.968%	99.998%					95
96	92.794%	99.518%	99.970%	99.998%					96
97	92.989%	99.544%	99.973%	99.998%					97
98	93.179%	99.569%	99.975%						98
99	93.363%	99.592%	99.977%						99
100	93.542%	99.614%	99.979%						100
101	93.717%	99.635%	99.980%						101
102	93.887%	99.655%	99.982%						102
103	94.052%	99.673%	99.983%						103
104	94.213%	99.691%	99.985%						104
105	94.369%	99.708%	99.986%						105
106	94.521%	99.723%	99.987%						106
107	94.669%	99.738%	99.988%						107
108	94.813%	99.753%	99.989%						108
109	94.954%	99.766%	99.990%						109
110	95.090%	99.779%	99.991%						110
111	95.223%	99.791%	99.992%						111
112	95.352%	99.802%	99.992%						112
113	95.477%	99.813%	99.993%						113
114	95.600%	99.823%	99.993%						114
115	95.719%	99.832%	99.994%						115
116	95.834%	99.841%	99.995%						116
117	95.947%	99.850%	99.995%						117
118	96.056%	99.858%	99.995%						118
119	96.163%	99.866%							119
120	96.267%	99.873%							120
121	96.368%	99.880%							121
122	96.466%	99.886%							122
123	96.561%	99.892%							123
124	96.654%	99.898%							124
125	96.745%	99.904%							125
126	96.833%	99.909%							126
127	96.918%	99.914%							127
128	97.002%	99.919%							128
129	97.083%	99.923%							129
130	97.161%	99.927%							130
131	97.238%	99.931%							131
132	97.313%	99.935%							132
133	97.385%	99.938%							133
134	97.456%	99.942%							134
135	97.525%	99.945%							135
136	97.592%	99.948%							136
137	97.657%	99.951%							137
138	97.720%	99.953%							138
139	97.782%	99.956%							139
140	97.842%	99.958%							140
141	97.900%	99.960%							141
142	97.957%	99.963%							142
143	98.012%	99.965%							143
144	98.066%	99.967%							144
145	98.118%	99.968%							145
146	98.169%	99.970%							146
147	98.218%	99.972%							147
148	98.267%	99.973%							148
149	98.313%	99.975%							149
150	98.359%	99.976%							150
151	98.403%	99.977%							151
152	98.446%	99.979%							152
153	98.488%	99.980%							153
154	98.529%	99.981%							154
155	98.569%	99.982%							155
156	99.102%	99.983%							156
157	99.126%	99.984%							157
158	98.682%	99.985%							158
159	98.718%	99.985%							159
160	98.752%	99.986%							160
161	98.786%	99.987%							161
162	98.819%	99.988%							162
163	98.851%	99.988%							163
164	98.882%	99.989%							164
165	98.912%	99.990%							165
166	98.941%	99.990%							166
167	98.970%	99.991%							167
168	98.998%	99.991%							168
169	99.025%	99.992%							169
170	99.051%	99.992%							170
171	99.077%	99.993%							171
172	99.102%	99.993%							172
173	99.126%	99.993%							173
174	99.150%	99.994%							174
175	99.173%	99.994%							175
176	99.195%	99.994%							176
177	99.217%	99.995%							177
178	99.238%	99.995%							178
179	99.259%	99.995%							179
180	99.279%								180
181	99.298%								181
182	99.317%								182
183	99.336%								183
184	99.354%								184
185	99.371%								185
186	99.388%								186
187	99.405%								187
188	99.421%								188
189	99.436%								189
190	99.452%								190
191	99.466%								191
192	99.481%								192
193	99.495%								193
194	99.508%								194
195	99.522%								195
196	99.535%								196
197	99.547%								197
198	99.559%								198
199	99.571%								199
200	99.583%								200

Comments

mrjjj Sep 26, 2010

No problem, take your time and have a safe flight. Thanks for the info. Ken

mrjjj Sep 26, 2010

I wonder why my post jumped all the way to the top? Ken

Posted by nope27
Sep 22, 2010

Roulette Probability 00 wheel

I like the idea of putting tables in one place. here are a few of mine for Roulette. 00 wheel.
I play Roulette and I am asked "what is the chance of" many times. Now I can direct one here.

These are "at least 1" tables or a cumulative frequency table.(So one has the chance of hitting at least 1 or more)
Formulas are:
Formula for a 00 wheel is: 1-((1-(p/38))^n) where n=# of spins and p=# of numbers
Formula for a 0 wheel is: 1-((1-(p/37))^n) where n=# of spins and p=# of numbers

Roulette Probability Table for 1/38 (00 wheel)

Roulette probability	1/38
Spins	Single # chance	Split bet (2 numbers)	Street bet (3 # chance)	corner bet (4 # chance)	5#s	Line Bet (6 # chance)	Dozen bet (12 # chance)	Even Money 18 numbers	Spins
1	2.632%	5.263%	7.895%	10.526%	13.158%	15.789%	31.579%	47.368%	1
2	5.194%	10.249%	15.166%	19.945%	24.584%	29.086%	53.186%	72.299%	2
3	7.689%	14.973%	21.864%	28.371%	34.508%	40.283%	67.969%	85.421%	3
4	10.118%	19.448%	28.032%	35.911%	43.125%	49.712%	78.084%	92.327%	4
5	12.483%	23.688%	33.714%	42.658%	50.609%	57.652%	85.005%	95.961%	5
6	14.786%	27.704%	38.947%	48.694%	57.107%	64.339%	89.740%	97.874%	6
7	17.029%	31.509%	43.767%	54.094%	62.751%	69.969%	92.980%	98.881%	7
8	19.212%	35.114%	48.206%	58.926%	67.652%	74.711%	95.197%	99.411%	8
9	21.338%	38.529%	52.295%	63.250%	71.909%	78.704%	96.714%	99.690%	9
10	23.408%	41.764%	56.062%	67.118%	75.605%	82.067%	97.751%	99.837%	10
11	25.424%	44.829%	59.530%	70.580%	78.815%	84.898%	98.462%	99.914%	11
12	27.386%	47.733%	62.725%	73.676%	81.602%	87.283%	98.947%	99.955%	12
13	29.297%	50.484%	65.668%	76.447%	84.023%	89.291%	99.280%	99.976%	13
14	31.158%	53.090%	68.379%	78.927%	86.125%	90.982%	99.507%	99.987%	14
15	32.970%	55.559%	70.875%	81.145%	87.951%	92.406%	99.663%	99.993%	15
16	34.734%	57.898%	73.174%	83.130%	89.536%	93.605%	99.769%		16
17	36.451%	60.114%	75.292%	84.905%	90.913%	94.614%	99.842%		17
18	38.123%	62.213%	77.243%	86.494%	92.109%	95.465%	99.892%		18
19	39.752%	64.202%	79.039%	87.916%	93.147%	96.181%	99.926%		19
20	41.337%	66.086%	80.694%	89.188%	94.049%	96.784%	99.949%		20
21	42.881%	67.871%	82.218%	90.326%	94.832%	97.292%	99.965%		21
22	44.384%	69.562%	83.622%	91.344%	95.512%	97.719%	99.976%		22
23	45.848%	71.164%	84.915%	92.256%	96.102%	98.079%	99.984%		23
24	47.273%	72.682%	86.106%	93.071%	96.615%	98.383%	99.989%		24
25	48.660%	74.120%	87.203%	93.800%	97.061%	98.638%	99.992%		25
26	50.011%	75.482%	88.213%	94.453%	97.447%	98.853%	99.995%		26
27	51.327%	76.772%	89.144%	95.037%	97.783%	99.034%			27
28	52.608%	77.995%	90.001%	95.559%	98.075%	99.187%			28
29	53.855%	79.153%	90.790%	96.027%	98.328%	99.315%			29
30	55.069%	80.250%	91.517%	96.445%	98.548%	99.423%			30
31	56.252%	81.289%	92.187%	96.819%	98.739%	99.514%			31
32	57.403%	82.274%	92.804%	97.154%	98.905%	99.591%			32
33	58.524%	83.207%	93.372%	97.453%	99.049%	99.656%			33
34	59.615%	84.091%	93.895%	97.722%	99.174%	99.710%			34
35	60.678%	84.928%	94.377%	97.961%	99.283%	99.756%			35
36	61.713%	85.722%	94.821%	98.176%	99.377%	99.794%			36
37	62.720%	86.473%	95.230%	98.368%	99.459%	99.827%			37
38	63.701%	87.185%	95.607%	98.540%	99.530%	99.854%			38
39	64.657%	87.859%	95.953%	98.693%	99.592%	99.877%			39
40	65.587%	88.498%	96.273%	98.831%	99.646%	99.897%			40
41	66.492%	89.104%	96.567%	98.954%	99.692%	99.913%			41
42	67.374%	89.677%	96.838%	99.064%	99.733%	99.927%			42
43	68.233%	90.221%	97.088%	99.163%	99.768%	99.938%			43
44	69.069%	90.735%	97.318%	99.251%	99.799%	99.948%			44
45	69.883%	91.223%	97.529%	99.330%	99.825%	99.956%			45
46	70.675%	91.685%	97.724%	99.400%	99.848%	99.963%			46
47	71.447%	92.122%	97.904%	99.463%	99.868%	99.969%			47
48	72.198%	92.537%	98.070%	99.520%	99.885%	99.974%			48
49	72.930%	92.930%	98.222%	99.570%	99.901%	99.978%			49
50	73.642%	93.302%	98.362%	99.616%	99.914%	99.981%			50
51	74.336%	93.655%	98.492%	99.656%	99.925%	99.984%			51
52	75.011%	93.988%	98.611%	99.692%	99.935%	99.987%			52
53	75.669%	94.305%	98.720%	99.725%	99.943%	99.989%			53
54	76.309%	94.605%	98.821%	99.754%	99.951%	99.991%			54
55	76.933%	94.889%	98.914%	99.780%	99.957%	99.992%			55
56	77.540%	95.158%	99.000%	99.803%	99.963%	99.993%			56
57	78.131%	95.412%	99.079%	99.824%	99.968%				57
58	78.706%	95.654%	99.152%	99.842%	99.972%				58
59	79.267%	95.883%	99.219%	99.859%	99.976%				59
60	79.812%	96.099%	99.280%	99.874%	99.979%				60
61	80.344%	96.305%	99.337%	99.887%	99.982%				61
62	80.861%	96.499%	99.390%	99.899%	99.984%				62
63	81.364%	96.683%	99.438%	99.909%	99.986%				63
64	81.855%	96.858%	99.482%	99.919%	99.988%				64
65	82.332%	97.023%	99.523%	99.928%	99.990%				65
66	82.797%	97.180%	99.561%	99.935%	99.991%				66
67	83.250%	97.328%	99.595%	99.942%	99.992%				67
68	83.691%	97.469%	99.627%	99.948%	99.993%				68
69	84.120%	97.602%	99.657%	99.954%	99.994%				69
70	84.538%	97.728%	99.684%	99.958%	99.995%				70
71	84.945%	97.848%	99.709%	99.963%	99.996%				71
72	85.341%	97.961%	99.732%	99.967%	99.996%				72
73	85.727%	98.069%	99.753%	99.970%	99.997%				73
74	86.102%	98.170%	99.772%	99.973%	99.997%				74
75	86.468%	98.267%	99.790%	99.976%	99.997%				75
76	86.824%	98.358%	99.807%	99.979%	99.998%				76
77	87.171%	98.444%	99.822%	99.981%	99.998%				77
78	87.509%	98.526%	99.836%	99.983%	99.998%				78
79	87.837%	98.604%	99.849%	99.985%	99.999%				79
80	88.157%	98.677%	99.861%	99.986%	99.999%				80
81	88.469%	98.747%	99.872%	99.988%					81
82	88.772%	98.813%	99.882%	99.989%					82
83	89.068%	98.875%	99.891%	99.990%					83
84	89.356%	98.934%	99.900%	99.991%					84
85	89.636%	98.990%	99.908%	99.992%					85
86	89.908%	99.044%	99.915%	99.993%					86
87	90.174%	99.094%	99.922%	99.994%					87
88	90.433%	99.142%	99.928%	99.994%					88
89	90.684%	99.187%	99.934%	99.995%					89
90	90.929%	99.230%	99.939%	99.996%					90
91	91.168%	99.270%	99.944%	99.996%					91
92	91.401%	99.309%	99.948%	99.996%					92
93	91.627%	99.345%	99.952%	99.997%					93
94	91.847%	99.379%	99.956%	99.997%					94
95	92.062%	99.412%	99.960%	99.997%					95
96	92.271%	99.443%	99.963%	99.998%					96
97	92.474%	99.472%	99.966%	99.998%					97
98	92.672%	99.500%	99.968%						98
99	92.865%	99.526%	99.971%						99
100	93.053%	99.551%	99.973%						100
101	93.236%	99.575%	99.975%						101
102	93.414%	99.597%	99.977%						102
103	93.587%	99.619%	99.979%						103
104	93.756%	99.639%	99.981%						104
105	93.920%	99.658%	99.982%						105
106	94.080%	99.676%	99.984%						106
107	94.236%	99.693%	99.985%						107
108	94.387%	99.709%	99.986%						108
109	94.535%	99.724%	99.987%						109
110	94.679%	99.739%	99.988%						110
111	94.819%	99.752%	99.989%						111
112	94.955%	99.766%	99.990%						112
113	95.088%	99.778%	99.991%						113
114	95.217%	99.790%	99.992%						114
115	95.343%	99.801%	99.992%						115
116	95.466%	99.811%	99.993%						116
117	95.585%	99.821%	99.993%						117
118	95.701%	99.830%	99.994%						118
119	95.814%	99.839%							119
120	95.925%	99.848%							120
121	96.032%	99.856%							121
122	96.136%	99.863%							122
123	96.238%	99.871%							123
124	96.337%	99.877%							124
125	96.433%	99.884%							125
126	96.527%	99.890%							126
127	96.619%	99.896%							127
128	96.708%	99.901%							128
129	96.794%	99.906%							129
130	96.879%	99.911%							130
131	96.961%	99.916%							131
132	97.041%	99.920%							132
133	97.119%	99.925%							133
134	97.194%	99.929%							134
135	97.268%	99.932%							135
136	97.340%	99.936%							136
137	97.410%	99.939%							137
138	97.478%	99.943%							138
139	97.545%	99.946%							139
140	97.609%	99.948%							140
141	97.672%	99.951%							141
142	97.733%	99.954%							142
143	97.793%	99.956%							143
144	97.851%	99.958%							144
145	97.908%	99.961%							145
146	97.963%	99.963%							146
147	98.016%	99.965%							147
148	98.069%	99.967%							148
149	98.119%	99.968%							149
150	98.169%	99.970%							150
151	98.217%	99.972%							151
152	98.264%	99.973%							152
153	98.310%	99.974%							153
154	98.354%	99.976%							154
155	98.397%	99.977%							155
156	98.982%	99.978%							156
157	99.008%	99.979%							157
158	98.521%	99.981%							158
159	98.560%	99.982%							159
160	98.598%	99.983%							160
161	98.634%	99.983%							161
162	98.670%	99.984%							162
163	98.705%	99.985%							163
164	98.739%	99.986%							164
165	98.773%	99.987%							165
166	98.805%	99.987%							166
167	98.836%	99.988%							167
168	98.867%	99.989%							168
169	98.897%	99.989%							169
170	98.926%	99.990%							170
171	98.954%	99.990%							171
172	98.982%	99.991%							172
173	99.008%	99.991%							173
174	99.034%	99.992%							174
175	99.060%	99.992%							175
176	99.085%	99.993%							176
177	99.109%	99.993%							177
178	99.132%	99.993%							178
179	99.155%	99.994%							179
180	99.177%								180
181	99.199%								181
182	99.220%								182
183	99.241%								183
184	99.261%								184
185	99.280%								185
186	99.299%								186
187	99.317%								187
188	99.335%								188
189	99.353%								189
190	99.370%								190
191	99.386%								191
192	99.403%								192
193	99.418%								193
194	99.434%								194
195	99.449%								195
196	99.463%								196
197	99.477%								197
198	99.491%								198
199	99.504%								199
200	99.517%								200

Comments

mrjjj Sep 23, 2010

nope27 Sep 23, 2010

I have a question on this because I got into a HUGE debate regarding this around a year ago at another board.

(00 wheel).... I'll use for example, 1 number bet. Are you saying on the 11th spin, I have a 25.424% chance (use whatever term you want) of my number hitting? Ken

Thank you for your question.

Yes, Ken you are correct.

(And, because this is a distribution table, one can also say that 25.42% of "all" 1 number bets HIT within 11 spins.

Actual data on a relative/cumulative table proves the last statement is correct. Of course, not perfectly correct, for the shout run, we must still apply the normal distribution with its standard deviations to set its ranges. But this would need another blog to explain and show.)

This is an "at least 1 only" table or cumulative frequency table.

your example above, you have 25.42% chance of "at least 1" hit. you could have 2 or more.

one can expand the table.

In 11 spins:

74.58% results in NO Hits

25.42%/1 or more hits

3.25%/2 or more hits

0.26%/3 or more hits

0.01%/4 or more hits

an expanded table can be easily made in a spreadsheet like excel using the "binodist" function.

(I'm currently on vacation and not at my regular computer)

I plan on adding a blog showing how to make a complete binomial distribution frequency table, showing the 3 outcomes.

1.exact probability column

2.at least (or more) column

3.or less (at most) column

mrjjj Sep 23, 2010

You realize there are a ton of people that would disagree with this? Many will say, every spin will still be a 1/38 chance of a number hitting regardless of the past. Myself? I'm kind of in the middle on this subject and I HATE not taking a side, I really dont know. I wish I could find an old thread from VLS regarding this subject. Ken

nope27 Sep 23, 2010

Yes, I agree with you. many people can not get away from the probability of one trial vs. the probability of a series of trials are different.

The math is correct. Many may disagree with my conclusions.

The above table IS theoretical. ALL math.

Actual roulette spins and rng spins (empirical data) verify the above table to be correct as long as one can calculate the standard deviation for each type of bet per n spins.

The mean average for a "1 number hit" in 1000 spins is 26.32 with a 5.06 SD.

I know 99 out of 100 people that read the above sentence do not understand those numbers.

(I assume that you do. You seem to know what you are talking about.

You know that in 25 spins, 3 is the average of numbers with 2 hits. Im sure only a few people actually know and believe that is true. Now, either you know how to do the math, and I do, and/or you found that out empirically.)

getting back to my example:

6.9 of those 26 hits, will happen within 11 spins, theoretically.

All one has to do is count the absolute frequencies to arrive at the total. But not always. The SD would be 2.2 rounded. That gives a range of 1 SD(68%)between 4.7 to 9.1. That is a big range! We are working with a prob of 1/38.

I see no value for myself in "proving anything" to anyone. But I do enjoy learning, and asking questions is part of that learning.

nope27 Sep 23, 2010

edit my last comment.

The SD to my last example of 2.2 should be 1.1 and the range would be 5.8 to 8.0

I did not see how to correct my comment

mrjjj Sep 25, 2010

I'll post a quick story. A while back I use to play a certain method. I get to the casino and start crossing off every number that hit until only one was left. In the beginning, this takes around 3 hours. I then start my progression on that LAST number, 1-95 progression. While I'm betting, continue to write down numbers for future use. I would leave the casino with some very nice winning days!! I had two losing days ($3,500 per loss) and have not played this method in a while but as of NOW, its not off my list quite yet.

Anyways, the average 'looking back' at the last time the number hit was around 245 spins PLUS the 95 spins for betting = 340 spins. WOW! Think about it, 340 spins without a number hitting?? Yep and your chart only goes up to 200. How many 99% in a row are there? ALOT but I still lost (twice). Like I said, I'm on the fence for this topic. I do believe that numbers can be 'due' but sometimes I think the opposite, I do NOT know. Ken

nope27 Sep 25, 2010

Ken, I understand how it can be sometimes confusing, the math that is, based off of actual experience.

I currently play almost the type of way you explained as one of my methods of play in Roulette.

I start crossing off numbers that have hit and when 6 are left un-hit I start betting on those remaining 6. I never go after just having one left because of how far it can go before hitting.

you need to take the complement of the event, meaning the chances of the opposite to happen.

example:200 spins at least 1 will hit in 200 spins

1 will NOT hit 0.483% or 1 in 207.1

300 spins:99.966% will hit at least 1 time/0.034% will NOT hit 1 time/ or 1 in 2982.3

350 spins:99.991% will hit at least 1 time/0.009% will NOT hit 1 time/ or 1 in 11315. These are not very large numbers.

519 spins:99.9999025% will hit at least 1 time/0.0000975% will NOT hit 1 time/ or 1 in 1025632 (1 in a million)Now 1 million IS a large number compared to 11,000 or 3,000.

I recently ran a million spin simulation 1000 times and every number had disappeared well over 500 spins at least once and over half the numbers twice.

It is the reason I never go for that "last one" to hit. Because it can disappear for quite some time.

That is why I love to run simulations. A theoretical table like the one above can sometimes not be intuitively correct, but simulations prove do other wise.

Good Luck

and I do like enjoy reading about your styles of play.

nope27 Sep 26, 2010

Ken, not to add any more confusion. The last example I gave was for 1 number exactly, as if you selected it before hand.

350 spins:99.991% will hit at least 1 time/0.009% will NOT hit 1 time/ or 1 in 11315. These are not very large numbers.

The probability is different for any 1 number. Exactly the way you have played you would have to multiply 0.009% by 38 to have .342% or a 1 in 292 chance of not hitting. Im at an airport in Chicago waiting for a flight back to CA and I will add the simulation that goes with the latest #s. Im tired.

7craps Sep 26, 2010

nice work.

Data Tables can give wrong answers if we do not read them correctly.

We need to make sure we are always comparing apples to apples or we can come up with bad conclusions from the data table.I have made many mistakes, many times, glad to have found The Wizard.

The Wizards' formula took me awhile to duplicate in Excel, but it works and my table looks just like yours.

mrjjj Sep 29, 2010

You might be interested? >>> http://vlsroulette.com/grabb/

goatcabin Oct 25, 2010

"I have a question on this because I got into a HUGE debate regarding this around a year ago at another board.

(00 wheel).... I'll use for example, 1 number bet. Are you saying on the 11th spin, I have a 25.424% chance (use whatever term you want) of my number hitting? Ken"

Whoa! These figures are not for any specific spin, but for, in this case, all 11 spins. If you have gone 10 spins without your number hitting, on the 11th spin the probability of it hitting is .0263, just like it is on every spin. There is no "maturity of chances". Note how the probability at every step for one number is

( ( (37/38)^n) -1)

where n is the number of spins. Each time a spin goes by without your number hitting, the probabiilties table "shifts up" by one row. For example, after three spins without your number hitting, the probability of hitting it within 11 spins (from the beginning of the experiment) is not .254, but .192, because now you have only 8 spins left of the original 11.

(37/38)^8 - 1 = .192

The other side of this coin is that, if you hit the number on the 3rd spin, the probability of getting it within those first 11 spins is now 1.0, i.e. certainty.

Cheers,

Alan Shank

(member goatcabin)

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