AZDuffman's Blog

I just need to vent on this a little, because I just can't understand what is so diffcult about it.

Working the dice table at a party. 3rd year in a row at this party, fairly high-level of society. Maybe I am dealing well because two people ask me "where do you usually deal?" one of whom was in survalence at the real casino. Maybe they just are making conversation.

Anyhoo, woman at the table at immediate right of 2nd base. Crowd at table is large enough that I can answer questions but cannot give individual tutoring. She has been there long enough to see me pass the dice twice. Dice are at say what would be stickman's immediate left, and 2-3 players between next shooter and her.\

"I would like to throw the dice now!"

Never had that before. Now, an intelligent person would see they are being moved around in an order. Some players had trouble grasping the game, but you should see the dice are moving player to player.

"I have to send them around the table in an order, M'amm.
"Oh."

She stops making line bets until they come to her. Fine, wants to save her chips and be able to throw them. Finally they make their way to her and I explain she has to make a line bet to throw them.

"NO ROLL!" Dice off the table.

Next few rolls I swear she knocked over some stack or another each and every time.

Why can't people manage to throw dice on a table?

Here are the final numbers and we have to say bad, bad coins!

Raw result: 118-123-11
P&L: ($2264)

But how bad? Not much worse that you would expect for a coin! Ignoring pushes which are the bookmakers doing, coins were correct .489 of the time. I'll let someone here who is better at advanced math than me (many of you) calculate how many standard deviations away from an true random result that is if they want to spend the time, but if you consider a coin flip should give .500 we were .011 away from that! Put another way, the coins missed by 5 games in a 17 week season, meaning they were off by less than 1/3 of a game a week. In fact, going into week 17 we were at EXACTLY .500! So though we had some volitality, if you want a true 50/50 shot over a season a coin flip would not be a bad way to go.

But we do not want 50/50, we want to win cash! This was not a the coin's season there as the coin was NEVER AHEAD. We came within 1 game of being ahead for some time, but never went positive. Taking a basic -110 vig of the $2264 we lost, three quarters was pure juice. (118 wins * $90 per win = $10620 in wins. $1230 in losses less the wins is $1680 for the book.) To be honest, this suprised even me. I know how juice works and I know how it has to be overcome, but to see it drain you over an entire season like that is amazing. This could be why the local bookie may drive a Buick instead of a Cadillac lest his players realize just what he is making.

So how about in just picking games? We all have had the aggrivation of taking time on the office-pool sheet only to have someone oblivious spend 30 seconds on it and end up winning, and having to be told they won at that! In our pool ncfatcat came in first, congrats, with 139 correct picks. I came in last of the active-til-the-end players with 119 correct (I missed 1-2 thursday games so will not use all totals.) 20 games difference or just 1.2 games per week. Yes, if I used the oppisite side of the coin I would have been at least contending for first! Think about that. I used a season-grid to keep records, but had I said, "Tails this winner" instead of "heads this winner" the coin would have taken at least second place, first if I didn't miss a few games and was right. Moral here is that if you do play an office pick-em game consider using a coin-method and you have as good a chance as anyone.

Back to dealing with the book. We had some issue with changes at our sponsor Bodog now Bovada. First with late lines then with changing quotes to the point that I used the BetUS site. (Sorry, Wiz, I tried to use the sponsor the whole way.) One trend I did see was early lines tend to punish the player with heavy juice (-125 in some cases) and wild lines. Later in the week this settles down and Bodog was a heavier "juice bully" than BetUS seemed to be. If Bovada keeps this policy will remain to be seen. I can say that the coins would have been up at a point in the season had I line-shopped, which I did not do at all.

So lets sum it all up. What did we learn or confirm with all of this?

First, it says that picking every game is in itself a coin-flip! If I just used the oppisite result I'd have near-taken the pool (NOTE: I did not even look at the lines in the pool so results there will not match those here numbers-wise, but I still made the same picks.)

Second, knowing this it confirms *YOU CANNOT WIN IF YOU BET TOO MANY GAMES!* I was off by 5 games over a season. Flip it over and we would still have been down $1700 for the season. Coin was never ahead and nearer the end of the season never got close. The juice, well, juiced the results to death.

Finally, what do you need to do if you do decide to bet every or near every game? Well, a bookie with a juice-rebate would be important. As is line-shopping. Had we line-shopped and had some juice-rebate or/and action bonuses results might have gotten near even. Look for the bonus programs.


Now, it is up to you for all next year. This isn't a lot of work, but it does take a bit of my time. Please state if anyone is still reading and would like to see a sequal next season. As you don't repeat for a sequal, next year would be "coin martingale" where if we were behind at the end of a week, units would double the next and if we were ahead we would bet the base unit again. We would look for how deep in the red you would have to withstand to make it work? It would be a "perfect world" simulation where we would assume unlimited credit before a bunch of bookies and shylocks came looking for you. (maybe even assume juice to the shylock?)

SEA ofer ARZ SEA +3 (-125) PUSH
TB over ATL TB +11.5 LOSS
CIN over BAL CIN +2 LOSS
NE over BUF NE -10.5 WIN $90
NYG ovedr DAL NYG -3 (EVEN) WIN $100
DET over GB DET -3.5 LOSS
TEN over HOU TEN -3 (EVEN) LOSS
IND over JAX IND +3.5 LOSS
DEN over KC DEN -3 (-120) LOSS
CHI over MIN CHI +1.5 WIN $90
CAR over NO CAR +8.5 LOSS
MIA over NYJ MIA -2.5 LOSS
WAS over PHI WAS +8.5 LOSS
CLE over PIT CLE +6.5 WIN $90
OAK over SD OAK -3 (+105) LOSS
STL over SF STL +10.5 WIN $90

Raw result week: 5-10-1
Raw result FINAL: 118-123-11

P&L week: ($540)
P&L STD: ($2264)

SEA ofer ARZ SEA +3 (-125)
TB over ATL TB +11.5
CIN over BAL CIN +2
NE over BUF NE -10.5
NYG ovedr DAL NYG -3 (EVEN)
DET over GB DET -3.5 (not my typo)
TEN over HOU TEN -3 (EVEN)
IND over JAX IND +3.5
DEN over KC DEN -3 (-120)
CHI over MIN CHI +1.5
CAR over NO CAR +8.5
MIA over NYJ MIA -2.5
WAS over PHI WAS +8.5
CLE over PIT PIT -6.5
OAK over SD OAK -3 (+105)
STL over SF STL +10.5

Coins left coal in the stocking, will we end the year up or down in raw total?


HOU over IND HOU -7 (-105) LOSS
NO over ATL NO -6.5 WIN $90
CLE over BAL CLE +12.5 WIN $90
TB over CAR TB +7.5 LOSS
GB over CHI CHI +12 WIN $90
ARZ over CIN ARZ +4 LOSS
BUF over DEN DEN -3 (-105) WIN $95
SD over DET SD +2 LOSS
OAK over KC OAK +2.5 LOSS
NE over MIA NE -9.5 LOSS
WAS over MIN WAS -6.5 LOSS
NYJ over NYG NYJ -3 (+105) LOSS
DAL over PHI DAL -1.5 LOSS
STL over PIT PIT -12 WIN $90
SEA over SF SEA +2 PUSH
JAX over TEN JAX +7 WIN $90


Raw result week: 6-9-1
Raw result STD: 113-113-10 LAST WEEK

P&L week: ($445)
P&L STD: ($1724)