Fire bet: Calculating the odds.

So they got the table reopened quickly, but delayed the payment and paperwork? Sounds like the right thing to do.

Like I said, every casino has it's own set of procedures.

There is actually 2 1/2 casino's. Mohegan, foxwoods, and MGM grand@ foxwoods. I have delt the game for almost 4 years with the fire bet(2 different casinos) and ive only witnessed it about 7-8 times, and have only paid out a single $5000 sum one time. But i did witness an odd occurance of seeing 6 points hit twice on one game and once on a second table within a 3 hour span. anyone know the odds on that when only 3 tables are open. lol.

Quote: SammyJankis

There is actually 2 1/2 casino's. Mohegan, foxwoods, and MGM grand@ foxwoods.

Are you serious?

PLEASE tell me that that's some PR BS and not something you came up with on your own.



For those that don't know:

About 1 1/2 years ago, Foxwoods opened their third casino, the MGM Grand at Foxwoods. All 3 are at the same location, but they are distinct and separate. Some people would consider them to simply be different rooms. These rooms have slots as well as table games, but they are quite a distance apart. Around 1/2 mile? At the same location, between the two older casinos, are several slot only rooms. Some of the P.R. material counts EACH of the rooms as another casino. So in some materials, Foxwoods has upwards of 10 casinos!

Yeah, the PR considers the MGM Grand Casino and Hotel to be separate from Foxwoods. Gamblers wouldn't. Heck, they use the same chips, etc.


By contrast, Mohegan Sun has two distinct casinos (or rooms), both complete with slots and tables, on opposite ends of the building. Between the two are all the shops and restaurants and hotel. About a year ago they opened a third casino, also with slots and tables. It's in the back of one of the existing casinos. A casual observer wouldn't even realize that the room was expanded. Someone who has experience there would, but without looking at the maps, wouldn't realize that it's considered a separate casino.

So, depending on how you count, at these two locations 9 miles apart are CT's only 2, 5, 6 or 12 casinos!


(BTW: I might have the timeline a little wrong.)

yes its PR BS. Mainly derived from if you work for said casino and would like to consider it seperate from the actual foxwoods property.

your timeline is relatively accurate. may 17 2008.

My thanks to miplet and ZPP. Thanks to your suggestions I worked out an exact solution, and agree with your results.

Wow, that's fine and excruciating work.

I did the first three cases via Excel this morning (0 points, 1 point, 2 points, 3 or more points) and got the same results. That was so messy ... I just lost my patience to finish it ...

Surely there is an easier way that enumerating the 6 dimensional cube.

Also, using (1 - X1 - X2)^(-1) ... etc ...

I suppose some nifty data structure, and following all the paths, would do it pretty quickly ... maybe even recursion ...

Sheesh! I'm a long way from Kansas today ...

--Dorothy

I could put my spreadsheet on GoogleDocs if anyone requests it.

The basic idea is there are 2^6=64 possible states, for whether or not the shooter already made each of the 6 points. You have to calculate the probability of each state leading to the other states it could go to directly from there. I had to do some fancy stuff with vlookup statements and index numbers to automate the process.

Dorothy, will you please show your calculations?

Quote: Wizard

I could put my spreadsheet on GoogleDocs if anyone requests it.

The basic idea is there are 2^6=64 possible states, for whether or not the shooter already made each of the 6 points. You have to calculate the probability of each state leading to the other states it could go to directly from there. I had to do some fancy stuff with vlookup statements and index numbers to automate the process.

Thanks Wizard. Consider it requested.
It is nice to see how others do difficult calculations using Excel instead of simulations. Especially from those who can do it well.
And more challenged math folks like myself learn a lot from it.

Quote: 7craps

Consider it requested.

Consider it done.

Here is the link http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjxTd62nlHn6dExNRzdCR2VnT0UzMGpQNHJUdUwtSVE&hl=en. There is a comment in cell Z3 of the "math" sheet that explains a little how I did it.