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long odds
| January 18th, 2010 at 1:38:52 PM permalink | |
| DorothyGale Member since: Nov 23, 2009 Threads: 40 Posts: 578 |
I've played around with my program to answer this more formal version of your question: Assume the probability of getting X sevens before Y twelves is approximately 0.5. Solve for integer values of X and Y. I tried values through Y = 6 and was not able to get an implied integer solution for X. For example, this code examines the problem with X = 34 and Y = 6, 100M rounds:
--Dorothy Resident OZ-like entity ... |
| January 18th, 2010 at 3:47:58 PM permalink | |
| nick Member since: Jan 1, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 4 | Thanks for your reply. Basically you are agreeing that it is approximately even odds whether you get 6 consecutive 7s or 1 12 before those 6 7s are thrown, I was thinking that since there are 7 possibilities,with six ways to make 7 and one way to make 12, it would be figured by (6/7)* itself until about 1/2 would be the product. In this case I believe it's (6/7)(6/7)(6/7)(6/7)which is 1296/2401.Which means it's closer to 4 to 1 rather than 6 to 1, and to bring it to even, the proposition would have to be whether 4 consecutive 7s vs. 1 12 would be an even bet. I say consecutive because I'm discounting any other number rolled as irrelevant. nick |
| January 18th, 2010 at 4:11:50 PM permalink | |
| DorothyGale Member since: Nov 23, 2009 Threads: 40 Posts: 578 |
I'm not saying this in the least. Here are the results of my simulation in this case, as posted above: Number of times six 7's came up before a 12: 18256704 Number of times a 12 came up before six 7's: 27781741 You can see that it is much more likely that a 12 will be rolled than rolling six 7's. Also, in your original post you did not say "consecutive." Here is the text of your question:
You simply asked for the probability of rolling six 7's before a 12 was rolled. Using the numbers from my simulation, the probabilities are about: Probability of rolling six 7's before a 12 is rolled: 39.655% Probability of rolling a 12 before rolling six 7's are rolled: 60.345% This isn't close to 50%. Again, I am not agreeing with you in any respect here. --Dorothy Resident OZ-like entity ... |
| January 18th, 2010 at 5:07:37 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 256 Posts: 5769 | I know this has been said before, but here is how I plan to answer this in a future "ask the wizard" column: The probability of rolling a 7 is 1/6, and the probability of rolling a 12 is 1/36. The probability of rolling a 7, given that a roll is a 7 or 12 is (1/6)/((1/6)+(1/36)) = 6/7. So the probability that the first six times a 6 or 12 is rolled it is a 6 every time is (6/7)^6 = 39.66%. If you rephrase the question to be what is the probability of rolling five sixes before a 12, then the answer is (6/7)^5 = 46.27%. With four rolls it is (6/7)^4 = 53.98%. So there is no number that is exactly 50/50. If you're looking for a good sucker bet, suggest you can either roll four sevens before a twelve, or a twelve before five sevens. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. |
| January 19th, 2010 at 4:46:50 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 92 Posts: 4927 |
I underlined and fixed your typos. Woo hoo! I DID have the right answer (eventually). Thanks for the confirmation, Wiz! I really enjoyed stretching out my brain muscle on this one. :) Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| January 19th, 2010 at 8:30:19 AM permalink | |
| boymimbo Member since: Nov 12, 2009 Threads: 11 Posts: 2179 |
Simplify your equation to a seven sided dice with 1 12 and 6 sevens. The odds of rolling 6 7s before a 12 is (6/7)^6 = 39.657%. The odds of rolling 5 7s before a 12 is (6/7)^5 = 46.266% The odds of rolling 4 7s before a 12 is (4/7)^4 = 53.977% -----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth! |
| January 19th, 2010 at 9:35:58 AM permalink | |
| nick Member since: Jan 1, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 4 | Thank you all for your input.I apologize for the "consecutive" confusion. It would seem from your analyses,therefore, that if I upped the number to 9 sevens vs. 2 twelves it would be an even bet;and to extend the logic even further, and I'm not sure it would hold, would it also be an even bet if I substituted one 11 for two 12s since there are two ways to make 11 and only one way to make 12?And if I used the number 10 , would the math be (6/9)(6/9) = close to a two to one bet?. |
| January 21st, 2010 at 11:33:14 AM permalink | |
| nick Member since: Jan 1, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 4 | It looks like two 12's and eight 7's would be the answer; but that's like one 12 and four 7's. Do you think there's a different dynamic with more numbers ? And to repeat the other thought what about 7's vs. a number 11 ,for example, which has two ways of being made or a number 10 which can be made three ways? nick |
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