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long odds

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January 18th, 2010 at 1:38:52 PM permalink
DorothyGale
Member since: Nov 23, 2009
Threads: 40
Posts: 578
Quote: nick
... how many 12s should be added to the equation to make it an even proposition?


I've played around with my program to answer this more formal version of your question: Assume the probability of getting X sevens before Y twelves is approximately 0.5. Solve for integer values of X and Y.

I tried values through Y = 6 and was not able to get an implied integer solution for X.

For example, this code examines the problem with X = 34 and Y = 6, 100M rounds:


#include
#include
#include

main() {
int s, d1, d2;
int noS = 0, noT = 0;
int ctr, x = 0, y = 0;

srand(time(NULL));

x = 0;
y = 0;

for (ctr = 0; ctr < 100000000; ctr++) {
if (ctr%1000000 == 0)
fprintf(stderr, "%d\r", ctr);

d1 = rand()%6+1;
d2 = rand()%6+1;
s = d1+d2;

if (s == 7)
x++;

if (s == 12)
y++;

// input value of x 7's before y 12's
if (x == 34) {
noS++;
x = 0;
y = 0;
}

// input value of y 12's before x 7's
if (y == 6) {
noT++;
x = 0;
y = 0;
}
}

printf("\n");
printf("Number of times 7's completed first: %d\n", noS);
printf("Number of times 12's completed first: %d\n", noT);
}

->OUTPUT->
Number of times 7's completed first: 294860
Number of times 12's completed first: 283584



--Dorothy
Resident OZ-like entity ...
January 18th, 2010 at 3:47:58 PM permalink
nick
Member since: Jan 1, 2010
Threads: 1
Posts: 4
Thanks for your reply. Basically you are agreeing that it is approximately even odds whether you get 6 consecutive 7s or 1 12 before those 6 7s are thrown, I was thinking that since there are 7 possibilities,with six ways to make 7 and one way to make 12, it would be figured by (6/7)* itself until about 1/2 would be the product. In this case I believe it's (6/7)(6/7)(6/7)(6/7)which is 1296/2401.Which means it's closer to 4 to 1 rather than 6 to 1, and to bring it to even, the proposition would have to be whether 4 consecutive 7s vs. 1 12 would be an even bet. I say consecutive because I'm discounting any other number rolled as irrelevant.
nick
January 18th, 2010 at 4:11:50 PM permalink
DorothyGale
Member since: Nov 23, 2009
Threads: 40
Posts: 578
Quote: nick
Basically you are agreeing that it is approximately even odds whether you get 6 consecutive 7s or 1 12 before those 6 7s are thrown


I'm not saying this in the least. Here are the results of my simulation in this case, as posted above:

Number of times six 7's came up before a 12: 18256704
Number of times a 12 came up before six 7's: 27781741

You can see that it is much more likely that a 12 will be rolled than rolling six 7's.

Also, in your original post you did not say "consecutive." Here is the text of your question:

Quote: nick
what are the chances of getting 6 sevens before 1 twelve.

You simply asked for the probability of rolling six 7's before a 12 was rolled.

Using the numbers from my simulation, the probabilities are about:

Probability of rolling six 7's before a 12 is rolled: 39.655%
Probability of rolling a 12 before rolling six 7's are rolled: 60.345%

This isn't close to 50%.

Again, I am not agreeing with you in any respect here.

--Dorothy
Resident OZ-like entity ...
January 18th, 2010 at 5:07:37 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 256
Posts: 5769
I know this has been said before, but here is how I plan to answer this in a future "ask the wizard" column:

The probability of rolling a 7 is 1/6, and the probability of rolling a 12 is 1/36. The probability of rolling a 7, given that a roll is a 7 or 12 is (1/6)/((1/6)+(1/36)) = 6/7. So the probability that the first six times a 6 or 12 is rolled it is a 6 every time is (6/7)^6 = 39.66%.

If you rephrase the question to be what is the probability of rolling five sixes before a 12, then the answer is (6/7)^5 = 46.27%. With four rolls it is (6/7)^4 = 53.98%. So there is no number that is exactly 50/50. If you're looking for a good sucker bet, suggest you can either roll four sevens before a twelve, or a twelve before five sevens.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
January 19th, 2010 at 4:46:50 AM permalink
DJTeddyBear
Member since: Nov 2, 2009
Threads: 92
Posts: 4927
Quote: DJTeddyBear
The odds of hitting six 7s in a row, an event that requires all six throws to resolve, is ( 6 / 7 ) ^ 6 = 39.7%
Therefore the odds of NOT doing that, i.e. hitting AT LEAST one 12 in those six throws, is 100% - 39.7% = 60.3%
Quote: Wizard
...the probability that the first six times a 7 or 12 is rolled it is a 7 every time is (6/7)^6 = 39.66%
I underlined and fixed your typos.


Woo hoo! I DID have the right answer (eventually).

Thanks for the confirmation, Wiz!


I really enjoyed stretching out my brain muscle on this one. :)
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood?
January 19th, 2010 at 8:30:19 AM permalink
boymimbo
Member since: Nov 12, 2009
Threads: 11
Posts: 2179
Quote: nick
My question is based on dice odds. I know that there are 6 ways to get 7 and 1 way to get 12 but what are the chances of getting 6 sevens before 1 twelve. Are they even and if not how many 12s should be added to the equation to make it an even proposition?

Thank you
NIck


Simplify your equation to a seven sided dice with 1 12 and 6 sevens.

The odds of rolling 6 7s before a 12 is (6/7)^6 = 39.657%.
The odds of rolling 5 7s before a 12 is (6/7)^5 = 46.266%
The odds of rolling 4 7s before a 12 is (4/7)^4 = 53.977%
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 19th, 2010 at 9:35:58 AM permalink
nick
Member since: Jan 1, 2010
Threads: 1
Posts: 4
Thank you all for your input.I apologize for the "consecutive" confusion. It would seem from your analyses,therefore, that if I upped the number to 9 sevens vs. 2 twelves it would be an even bet;and to extend the logic even further, and I'm not sure it would hold, would it also be an even bet if I substituted one 11 for two 12s since there are two ways to make 11 and only one way to make 12?And if I used the number 10 , would the math be (6/9)(6/9) = close to a two to one bet?.
January 21st, 2010 at 11:33:14 AM permalink
nick
Member since: Jan 1, 2010
Threads: 1
Posts: 4
It looks like two 12's and eight 7's would be the answer; but that's like one 12 and four 7's. Do you think there's a different dynamic with more numbers ? And to repeat the other thought what about 7's vs. a number 11 ,for example, which has two ways of being made or a number 10 which can be made three ways?
nick
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