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Math question for the Binomial sharps

December 12th, 2011 at 1:34:47 AM permalink
shakhtar
Member since: Nov 24, 2011
Threads: 3
Posts: 7
Hypothetical scenario:

Mike plays three Pick 4 numbers in 20 separate state drawings a day. He ends up entering 7300 drawings for the year.

Obviously his chance of not winning any 1 individual drawing is .9997
Therefore, we can figure that he has a 88.81% chance of at least winning once during the 7300 drawings for the year.

every drawing will have him picking 3 numbers per draw for a .0003% chance per draw

My question is, what are the percentage probabilities of mike hitting 1 out of 7300, 2 out of 7300, 3 out of 7300 etc..?

If possible, I would like the percentage probabilities up to 10 out 7300.

My thanks for anyone who takes the time to figure this out, as I have not yet figured out how to do this correctly.
December 12th, 2011 at 4:22:35 AM permalink
ChesterDog
Member since: Jul 26, 2010
Threads: 0
Posts: 199
Excel gets these results:

Hits Prob.
0
11.19%
1
24.51%
2
26.84%
3
19.60%
4
10.73%
5
4.70%
6
1.71%
7
0.54%
8
0.15%
9
0.04%
10
0.01%
Total
100.00%
December 12th, 2011 at 11:36:32 AM permalink
shakhtar
Member since: Nov 24, 2011
Threads: 3
Posts: 7
Thanks ChesterDog

Is the program you used available anywhere?
December 12th, 2011 at 11:57:03 AM permalink
ChesterDog
Member since: Jul 26, 2010
Threads: 0
Posts: 199
Quote: shakhtar
...Is the program you used available anywhere?


"Excel" is a spreadsheet program; it's one of the three programs of Microsoft Office, which you can buy from Microsoft or an electronics store.

For example, to do your binomial problem in Excel for 10 hits, you would type the following formula in a cell.
=combin(7300,10)*.0003^10*.9997^(7300-10)
December 12th, 2011 at 12:10:18 PM permalink
JB
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 309
Posts: 906
Quote: ChesterDog
For example, to do your binomial problem in Excel for 10 hits, you would type the following formula in a cell.
=combin(7300,10)*.0003^10*.9997^(7300-10)

Or you could use the binomial distribution function:     =binomdist(10,7300,3/10000,false)
December 12th, 2011 at 1:42:39 PM permalink
progrocker
Member since: Feb 21, 2010
Threads: 4
Posts: 299
Quote: ChesterDog
"Excel" is a spreadsheet program; it's one of the three programs of Microsoft Office, which you can buy from Microsoft or an electronics store.


There's also Open Office, which is free and open sourced, and will open .xls files as well as give you the option to save as .xls.

http://www.openoffice.org/
Solo venimos, solo nos vamos. Y aqui nos juntamos, juntos que estamos.

 

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