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Pinochle probability question

November 24th, 2011 at 5:25:30 AM permalink
bettheodds
Member since: Nov 24, 2011
Threads: 3
Posts: 3
Me and the guys were playing pinochle and two of us didn't have a marriage (any king or queen combo of the same suit) on the same deal. We started talking about the odds of this happening.

This is how we play...
80 cards
J-Q-K-10-A only
4 suits
4 of each card

i.e. J-Q-K-10-A x4 in each of the suits.

We deal 20 cards each to all 4 players

Love to know the odds!!

Thanks!!
November 26th, 2011 at 10:49:15 AM permalink
EdCollins
Member since: Oct 21, 2011
Threads: 3
Posts: 24
I estimate the probability of <i>having </i> a marriage in any given hand to be about 98.9% (.989)

Thus, the approximate odds of <i>not </i> having a marriage in two hands is about .012% (.00012)... about 1 time every 10,000 deals.

I'm sure the exact percentages are not off by much.

 

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