3 Card Poker Bonus

All the Harrahs casinos in AC are currently running a 3 Card Poker promo. They have the six card bonus bet for a minimum of $5 that requires making a hand with your 3 cards and the dealers 3 cards. I’m sure this has been analyzed before, but now for the promo. A 9-A stratight flush pays $1,000,000 in diamonds and $100,000 in any other suit. How does this bonus effect the house edge of the game? Coincidentally, they changed about 10-12 other tables over to 3CP for the promo. At least 8 had bored dealers standing there last Saturday night. Also, someone hit the $1,000,000 in the second week of the promo at Harrahs.

Quote: rJz

All the Harrahs casinos in AC are currently running a 3 Card Poker promo. They have the six card bonus bet for a minimum of $5 that requires making a hand with your 3 cards and the dealers 3 cards. I’m sure this has been analyzed before, but now for the promo. A 9-A stratight flush pays $1,000,000 in diamonds and $100,000 in any other suit. How does this bonus effect the house edge of the game? Coincidentally, they changed about 10-12 other tables over to 3CP for the promo. At least 8 had bored dealers standing there last Saturday night. Also, someone hit the $1,000,000 in the second week of the promo at Harrahs.

You are descibing the "6 card bonus - Version 2" from this page. It's not a good bet - the house edge on that bet is about 18%.

Quote: rdw4potus

It's not a good bet - the house edge on that bet is about 18%.

What would we feel is a good house edge on this bet?
If you had won the bet, would you say, "ONLY a million dollars??!! Why, I should have been paid $1,200,000!"
Jackpot bets cannot be offered in the first place for less than 18% or so.

Quote: Paigowdan

Jackpot bets cannot be offered in the first place for less than 18% or so.

I'll bite - Why not?

Quote: rdw4potus

I'll bite - Why not?

Okay.
There are certain required limits or parameters to the house edges of each specific bet type.
In striking a balance where the bets of the game offered have enough player reward, versus enough "house income," the percentage ranges are pretty standard. Bets that fall higher in house edge punish the player excessively - and he feels "punished" by that game or bet.
Bets that fall lower in house edge have a consistent loss on the game, or lack of income, that also get that game "adjusted" or pulled from service.
Basically, the ranges are:
1. Flat even-money or main bets: 1% to 3%. Older Games like Let It Ride and CSP with higher edges suffer from player burn out and abondonment, and fade away.
2. Table bonus bets, like the Fortune bonus or Pai Plus on Three card poker: about 7%
3. High payout prop bets, like the Dragon 7 bet or the Hop bets in craps: about 10% to 17%
4. Jackpot style bets, like progressives or the 6-card bet for 3CP here, have to go above 18% up to a whopping 50%, to cover a HUGE payout. (Certainly, it is a session changing, if not life changing win. These players will NOT lose these winnings back anytime soon, indeed, they get locked into paying off people's mortgages and cars, etc.)

Perusing the game info pages at wizardofodds.com, you will see that the established games generally adhere closely to these parameters...

Nobody won it, it was a rumour created to generate interest.
The odds are lousy, its 20million to 1 shot, and they give you a massive 1million to 1 payout.
Has to be one of the worst bets out there in my opinion.

Quote: Paigowdan

Jackpot style bets, like progressives, have to go above 18% up to a whopping 50%, to cover a HUGE payout.

The problem w/ this logic is JP's are funded by the players, NOT THE CASINO. And they only add a small fraction of the bet to it.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

The problem w/ this logic is JP's are funded by the players, NOT THE CASINO. And they only add a small fraction of the bet to it.

Only the top or top two awards are funded by the pool; everything else isn't.

Quote: WizardofEngland

Nobody won it, it was a rumour created to generate interest.
The odds are lousy, its 20million to 1 shot, and they give you a massive 1million to 1 payout.
Has to be one of the worst bets out there in my opinion.

Supposedly Iowa has now approved this bet for Horseshoe and Harrah's casinos. This will actually be very groundbreaking, as Iowa doesn't even have WAP's on slot machines unless they are on the Indian Casino Network.

Also, when I was in Vegas, I was told that it's been hit three times, but they never had to pay it out, as the players were not on the bonus bet. I'm not sure I believe that... I don't play TCP anymore, but if I did, I'd probably throw the money out on it... I don't know, I avoid the game altogether.

Quote: Tiltpoul

Also, when I was in Vegas, I was told that it's been hit three times, but they never had to pay it out, as the players were not on the bonus bet. I'm not sure I believe that... I don't play TCP anymore, but if I did, I'd probably throw the money out on it... I don't know, I avoid the game altogether.

I would like to know what the probability of winning it in two weeks would be.....

*IF* you assume its in 15 casinos (which I believe its not)
and you assume there are 8 tables in each casino (which I believe there not)
and you assume each table plays 10 hours a day at 40 hands an hour
and you assume 7 players at each table for that whole 10 hours (which I highly doubt)

which equates to 7*40 = 280 hands per table per hour
280 * 10 = 2,800 hands per table each day
2800 * 8 = 22,400 hands per casino each day
22400 * 15 = 336,000 hands accross the promo each day

In two weeks this would equate to 4,704,000 hands and we are to believe that a 20,000,000 - 1 shot was hit in this time???

Thats before we even factor in how many of the players actually made the bet.

Total BS!

IF* this actually did happen, and I was head of the promo, I would pay the flukey player an extra $50,000 and have his/her face everywhere, at every table on flyers and even printed on the cloth. It would surely make more suckers take up the bet.