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Is it possible to create an edge in coin toss?
| September 30th, 2011 at 7:33:38 PM permalink | |
| Krazycat Member since: Sep 30, 2011 Threads: 1 Posts: 3 | http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/probable/flips.htm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feller&...sing_constants In the above 2 links, it's mentioned that if we toss a fair coin ten times then the exact probability that NO consecutive heads come up in succession (i.e. n = 10 and k = 2) is p(10,2) = 0.14... So, the probability of at least one pair of heads, or tails, in 10 tosses is approx 1-0.14 ~0.86 Event A: prob. of next toss is always 0.5 and law of large numbers overules everything else (gamblers fallacy applies) Event B: prob. of having consecutive heads in cluster of 10 tosses is > 0.86 Considering event B only as our universe, can we somehow create a strategy with this probability to have a positive expectation game, maybe related to Penney Ante concept? The key is Not about increasing bet size after a win Or loss but rather on the condition that "If a coin was tossed 10 x 10 times, i.e. Ten events B, there would be at least 8 out of 10 events, a consecutive head appearing within an event"... .i.e. A 86% prob. single event |
| September 30th, 2011 at 11:22:22 PM permalink | |
| algle Member since: Aug 12, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 77 | The short answer to your question is NO. If nothing will change then I am nothing. |
| October 1st, 2011 at 12:46:45 AM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4829 | The short answer is yes. A coin toss is a 51/49 proposition in favor of which ever side is "up" at the start. (Persi Diaconis, Stanford). |
| October 1st, 2011 at 3:31:45 AM permalink | |
| Krazycat Member since: Sep 30, 2011 Threads: 1 Posts: 3 | http://blog.wolfram.com/2010/11/30/how-to-win-at-coin-flipping/ A related article but can't find any examples. |
| October 1st, 2011 at 3:52:25 AM permalink | |
| mrjjj Member since: Sep 4, 2010 Threads: 62 Posts: 1304 |
At the 'start', meaning......a PAST result? Hmmm, I thought everything was equal? The AP (cough) crew would say its a 50/50 shot. Wait, wait, let me guess......unless there is a BIAS with the coin? (ROFL) Ken :) If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong.
Playing at the casino doesn't make you a pro any more than standing in a garage makes you a car. I prefer to be hated for telling the truth, than loved for telling a lie. No person has yet convinced me that their way of playing roulette is better than my way. Winners have simply formed the habit of doing things roulette AP players don't like to do. I'm sure AP (roulette) worked just fine back in 1923. Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing. 5.26%, so what?......I get taxed everyday. Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. Don't play/study roulette for a TOTAL of 9 hours in your lifetime and then preach that a person can not do 'well' with it.
Also, don't let the '2+2 will never equal 5' crowd bring you down. TRIAL & ERROR guys, I can't say it enough! When you're finished changing, you're finished. |
| October 1st, 2011 at 5:06:16 AM permalink | |
| RonC Member since: Jan 18, 2010 Threads: 9 Posts: 371 |
If heads was up five times and tails the other five at the start, would that even this out? |
| October 1st, 2011 at 5:47:05 AM permalink | |
| pacomartin Member since: Jan 14, 2010 Threads: 547 Posts: 6211 |
Try this game (it's easier). Shake up four coins in your hand and lay them down under your palm in order. Two sides to the bet: Player A) If there are three of either heads or tails in a row , player B pays $3 to $1 Player B) If there are not three in a row player A pays $1 to $1 Take turns shaking the coins so there is no possibility of cheating. Which would you rather be? Player A or Player B. Or does it matter? Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear |
| October 1st, 2011 at 7:17:05 AM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4829 | No. There is a bias on each and every toss toward the side that is "up". |
| October 1st, 2011 at 11:54:27 AM permalink | |
| mrjjj Member since: Sep 4, 2010 Threads: 62 Posts: 1304 |
Can you give me the short version reason as to WHY, so I dont have to open links. You do agree?......it is based on a PAST RESULT, correct? One prior toss is the past, correct? Past result(s) = Gamblers fallacy? You know where I'm heading with all of this so might as well play along. Ken If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong.
Playing at the casino doesn't make you a pro any more than standing in a garage makes you a car. I prefer to be hated for telling the truth, than loved for telling a lie. No person has yet convinced me that their way of playing roulette is better than my way. Winners have simply formed the habit of doing things roulette AP players don't like to do. I'm sure AP (roulette) worked just fine back in 1923. Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing. 5.26%, so what?......I get taxed everyday. Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. Don't play/study roulette for a TOTAL of 9 hours in your lifetime and then preach that a person can not do 'well' with it.
Also, don't let the '2+2 will never equal 5' crowd bring you down. TRIAL & ERROR guys, I can't say it enough! When you're finished changing, you're finished. |
| October 1st, 2011 at 12:02:07 PM permalink | |
| SanchoPanza Member since: May 10, 2010 Threads: 24 Posts: 735 |
Like the bias toward banker in baccarat? |
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