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help me find the error in my craps math
| April 29th, 2011 at 11:48:32 PM permalink | |
| vert1276 Member since: Apr 25, 2011 Threads: 45 Posts: 320 | Now maybe I'm wrong, but I have always heard on a 10X odds table it is always better to make a "put bet" on the 4 and 10 than to buy the 4 and the 10. Is this not correct? Looking at the WoO tables a buy bet on the 4,10 carries a HA or 4.76% and a put bet with 10X's odds has a HA of 3.03%. So somewhere I'm making a mistake in my math or am I just not understanding something. Example: $100 buy bet on the 4,10 would win me $195 ($200 -$5 vig) $99 put bet($9 flat plus $90 odds) would win me $189($90x2=$180 plus $9 flat) So basically I have the same amount of money at risk but with a buy bet I win $6? So then how is the HA on the put bet better then the buy bet according to WoO table? I know I must be missing something simple and just not seeing it. |
| April 30th, 2011 at 5:04:56 AM permalink | |
| DeMango Member since: Feb 2, 2010 Threads: 11 Posts: 318 | First of all please compare apples to apples. We will make your put bet at $10 plus $90 odds so $100 either way. In Atlantic City you buy the 4 three times and win once according to expectations. You lose twice $105. You win once $200 minus the vig for a total loss of $15. Your put bets lose twice at $100 but wins once at $190 for a total loss of $10. Then you move to Mississippi. You buy the 4 three times and win once according to expectations. You lose twice $100. You win once $200 minus the vig for a total loss of $5 Your put bet lose twice at $100 but wins once at $190 for a total loss of $10. Lesson learned: The casinos in Atlantic City are thieving bottom feeders. |
| April 30th, 2011 at 5:17:55 AM permalink | |
| vert1276 Member since: Apr 25, 2011 Threads: 45 Posts: 320 |
Well thanks for the response but you still didnt answer my question LOL on a vig paid only on a win total loss on a buy bet would be $5 and total loss on a put bet would be $10.........................AND THEN MY QUESTION WAS....On the WoO site it say HA on a 4,10 buy bet is 4.76% and HA on a put bet on the 4,10 with 10X's odds is 3.03%......DO YOU SEE MY QUESTION NOW? how can the HA be less on the put bet if you loss more money $10 vs $5? Thanks for any help |
| April 30th, 2011 at 7:59:18 AM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 46 Posts: 2521 | No it doesn't. The WoO site says the HA for a Buy 4 with the vig paid only on a win is 1.67%. Look at the 2nd chart. "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
| April 30th, 2011 at 2:12:46 PM permalink | |
| vert1276 Member since: Apr 25, 2011 Threads: 45 Posts: 320 |
Ok cool thanks, I knew I had to be just looking at something wrong |
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